When Wisconsin runs...
Star freshman tailback Jonathan Taylor did not have as great of a game as most have come to expect against Northwestern. He just had 80 yards rushing, but did have two scores. Most of his damage came in the first half, but then the Wildcats defense shut him down in half two. Wisconsin fell to 23rd in the country in rush yards per game after rushing for just 109 yards on Saturday, Nebraska has been stout against the run, allowing just 106 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 22nd. In the last three games, the Blackshirts have been even better, allowing just 82 yards per game to their opponents. The best run team the Huskers have faced so far is Oregon, and the Ducks did rush for 201 yards. Wisconsin’s offensive line will have to bring their “A” game. The Nebraska defensive line underperformed to start the year, but turned it up last Friday in Champagne. Against the Illini, Nebraska had 10 tackles for loss after having just 12 in its first four games combined. Nebraska is transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 after hiring Bob Diaco as the defensive coordinator this offseason. The Badgers will need to move out the big, strong nose tackle duo of Mick Stoltenberg and Deontre Thomas if they want to move the ball consistently on the ground. This will be a fun matchup to watch.
Edge: Push
When Wisconsin passes...
I wish I knew which Alex Hornibrook we will get on Saturday night. He did not look sharp in any aspect against Florida Atlantic or Northwestern or the first half against Utah State, but was flawless against BYU. The sophomore signal caller will have to play more like against BYU than FAU or Northwestern if he wants to come out of Lincoln with a win. Hornibrook had some success in the second half against the Wildcats, but still underthrew some wide open targets. He went 6-of-9 for 149 yards and a score, but those could have been a bit better. Nebraska has a veteran secondary, but lost stud cornerback Chris Jones before the season due to a meniscus tear. The Huskers are middle of the pack nationally, but able to hold Illinois’ Chayce Crouch to less than 100 yards passing. Wisconsin has weapons surrounding Hornibrook. Last week, he did not have All-American tight end Troy Fumagalli at his disposal, but Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis stepped up. Jazz Peavy has been silent this year, but he will make some noise this year. He is too good not to. But if Fumagalli plays, every other weapon will look that much better.
Edge: Push
When Nebraska runs...
After missing the first two games and only getting two carries in the third game, Devine Ozigbo has turned it on in Big Ten play. In last two games, he has reached the century mark both times and has averaged nearly five yards per carry. Not surprisingly, Nebraska has won both games. The Huskers have had some issues on the offensive line throughout the early part of the season, and will need to play well this week against Wisconsin’s front seven that is fourth in the nation in opponents rush yards per game. The Badgers will still be without defensive end Chikwe Obasih, but the unit has played well in his absence. Wisconsin has allowed 74.3 yards per game, which I mentioned is fourth in the county. In the past two games, the unit has been even better. The rush defense has allowed an average of 53 yards per game the last two, and 69 of those 106 total rushing yards came on one drive against BYU. Last game against Northwestern, the defense held star running back Justin Jackson to 25 yards on nine carries. Nebraska sophomore Tre Bryant had a fast start this season, but has missed the last three weeks and will miss Saturdays game as well. If Wisconsin makes Nebraska one-dimensional, it could be a very good thing for Bucky, especially with Tanner Lee having a tendency to throw pick sixes.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Nebraska passes...
This will be the most interesting matchup of the game. I mentioned above about Lee and his pick sixes. He has thrown three pick sixes on the season, and has thrown nine interceptions already through five games. So, in other words, there will be chances for Wisconsin’s secondary to make plays. However, he also has thrown for 229 yards per game, and has plenty of options around him. Lee’s top target is junior Stanley Morgan. He is tied for the team receiving touchdown lead with four and has at least 90 receiving yards in all four games he has played (he missed the Rutgers game) and has caught at least five passes in every game as well. Lee also has senior De’Mornay Pierson-El at his disposal. The speedster has a touchdown in all but one of the Huskers games so far and at least four catches and 60 yards in three of his last four. The Badgers secondary, specifically the cornerback duo of Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal, will be tested early and often. Nebraska has struggled a bit at times on the offensive line, so they will need to give Lee time, and the Badgers are coming off a game in which they sacked Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson eight times. If Wisconsin can slow down the running game like it did against Northwestern, it can tee off on Lee and force him into mistakes. But, if given time, he and his receivers can make it a long evening for the Badgers secondary.
Edge: Push
Special Teams
Rafael Gaglianone has made four of his five field goal attempts for Wisconsin this year, but amazingly all four have been under 30 yards. He missed his only attempt of more than 30 (37 vs. Florida Atlantic), but after having a great year up until his injury last year, he is still a more than capable weapon at kicker. Nebraska, on the other hand, also has a weapon in senior Drew Brown. He has made five of his six field goal attempts with a long of 41. The punting matchup is about even, as Wisconsin’s Anthony Lotti has a bit of an advantage in net punting, but Nebraska’s Caleb Lightbourn has put a a few more inside the opponents 20, albeit in nine more attempts. The Huskers do have a key advantage in kick returning. However, that could be negated by the big leg of Wisconsin kickoff man Zach Hintze. The sophomore boomed all six of his kickoffs for touchbacks against Northwestern and 14 of his 19 overall have been booted for touchbacks. Hintze leads the Big Ten in touchbacks and is 11th nationally in yards per kickoff. Wisconsin will need Hintze to come through on Saturday night. Both teams are near the middle of the country in punt return average. I would normally give Nebraska the edge due to freshman kick returner JD Spielman, but with Hintze being a key weapon, I think this is even.
Edge: Push
Overview
Wisconsin is the better team here, but that does not mean as much. I have seen plenty of highly ranked teams go on the road into a hostile environment and lose to lesser teams. Both teams are still trying to figure things out. Nebraska has won its two games since falling to Northern Illinois, but we still don’t know much about them since they played the two bottom feeders in the Big Ten. Northwestern has struggled early on, so we really don’t know much about Wisconsin either. This will be the toughest environment Bucky plays at all year. Nebraska has shown much improvement defensively, having allowed less than 250 yards of total offense the last three games, but has not played the toughest competition. Hornibrook will need to have a big night in order to emerge with a win. As a person who has watched college football for years, it is crazy to me that Wisconsin is an 11.5-point favorite on the road at night in Lincoln. I think the Badgers will win, but it will be a very close contest once again, and I think the defense will once again make a big play down the stretch to seal the game.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Nebraska 23
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