When Wisconsin runs...
Once again, the Badgers had a nice running game against Maryland last Saturday, rushing for 215 yards and more than five yards per carry despite the Terrapins crowding the box. Illinois lost against Minnesota by allowing nearly 300 yards rushing. Even without Shannon Brooks, the Gophers duo of Rodney Smith and Kobe McCrary rushed for a combined 256 yards and six yards per carry. Minnesota passed for a total of 47 yards.....and won. That shows you how solid this Illinois defense is. On the season, the Fighting Illini are 108th in the country and the worst in the Big Ten in rush yards allowed per game. In the last two games against Minnesota and Rutgers, Illinois has allowed an average of 283 yards on the ground and has surrendered a total of six rushing touchdowns. Not good. I am sure this is a great game for the Illinois run defense to get right in. Jonathan Taylor is fourth in the country in rushing yards and is top 10 in the country in rushing touchdowns with 11. As a team, the Badgers are 16th in the country in rush yards per game at 256.9. Taylor should run all over Illinois and Bradrick Shaw and Rachid Ibrahim will get plenty of work against the team directly to the South as well. I think the Badgers shred Illinois for 300 yards on the ground. In order to try to stop Bucky on the ground, the Illini will put eight (and sometimes nine) in the box, so the play action pass could be open all game long.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Alex Hornibrook had one of his better games last week against Maryland, completing 16-of-24 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. His pick was ugly, but he showed resilience and bounced back nicely. For the first time in conference play, the freshman quarterback threw more touchdowns than interceptions, improving his ratio to five touchdowns and six picks in Big Ten play. Interestingly, Hornibrook has at least one touchdown pass and one interception in every conference game this season. Once again, Wisconsin will be without senior wide receiver Jazz Peavy, who will miss his third consecutive game this week. However, the Badgers still have top targets Quintez Cephus and Troy Fumagalli. The latter had a big game against the Terps with seven catches for 83 yards, his most catches and yards since Sept. 9 against Florida Atlantic. Freshman wide receiver Danny Davis missed the Maryland game and is questionable for the game this weekend. If he is out, two of the top three wide receivers will be out once again, so freshman Kendric Pryor and sophomore A.J. Taylor will have to step up once again. The Illini actually rank 41st in passing yards allowed per game, but that can be deceiving. They have allowed 13 touchdowns and have picked off six passes and rank 84th in opponents quarterback rating. If (or when) Illinois crowds the box to stop the run. Cephus and Fumagalli are more than capable of running free for big plays in the passing game. Taylor and Ibrahim could also be used in the pass attack as well. Illinois has sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times this season, which ranks 10th in the conference.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Illinois runs...
Illinois freshman running back Mike Epstein, who rushed for 346 yards and six yards per carry to start the season, is out for the season and fellow freshman Ra’Von Bonner has not had the same success. After taking over the lead running back role, Bonner has rushed for just 119 yards in two games and just 3.2 yards per carry. As a team, the Illini ranks 113th in the country and last in the Big Ten in rush yards per game and average just 3.7 yards per carry. However, in the last two weeks, since Epstein’s season-ending injury, Illinois is averaging just 103.5 rush yards per carry and 3.2 yards per carry. Despite allowing a season-high 143 yards against Maryland, the Badgers still rank fifth in the country in rush yards allowed per game at 88. The yards per carry for opponents is also just 2.9. Bucky also could get reinforcements, as Chikwe Obasih may make his return to the lineup. This should be a mismatch in Bucky’s favor. However, when freshman quarterback Cam Thomas plays, the Badgers will have to account for his legs.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Illinois passes...
The Illini have had their issues at quarterback this year. Three quarterbacks have played in recent games: Chayce Crouch, Jeff George Jr. and most recently, Thomas. George, who threw four interceptions in the first half in Madison last season, has thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions in four games this season. George has also been picked off at least twice in three of the four games he has played in. He is the passer of the trio of quarterbacks used, but in addition to the seven picks thrown, he also has completed just 56 percent of his passes. Thomas made his debut last week against Minnesota and went 2-of-4 for 33 yards and a pick that was returned for the eventual deciding touchdown. However, Thomas did provide an element Wisconsin will have to account for that they don’t have to with George: his legs. Thomas rushed for 79 yards on 10 carries. Not only does Illini use multiple quarterbacks, but they could make the switch mid-possession, so the Badgers will have to be aware of that. As a team, Illinois is 96th in the country in passing yards per game, which is 10th in the Big Ten, and has thrown 12 interceptions, which is fourth to last in the country. The Badgers, on the other hand, excel at pass defense, allowing just 177.4 passing yards per game, which is 16th nationally. Nick Nelson and Co. just held one of the nation’s best, D.J. Moore, to three catches for 44 yards. I think Wisconsin should have little trouble once again. Although Illinois does have a few nice targets. Yet another freshman, Ricky Smalling, has caught 13 passes for 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns combined the last two weeks. Mike Dudek, who had more than 1,000 yards receiving in 2014 as a freshman, has lost his last two seasons due to a torn ACL. He missed the Minnesota game with an injury, but Illinois hopes to get him back this week. After missing two full seasons with bad luck, he is an easy guy to root for. Just not this week.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Both teams have reliable kickers. Illinois’ is Chase McLaughlin, who is 10-of-13 (77 percent) on the year with a long of 43. I will say it is pretty depressing if you’re an Illinois fan that he has as many field goals as extra points this season. Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 7-of-9 (78 percent) with a long of 46. The return units and punting units are pretty similar. Not a big edge, if any at all, for either team. Although, Illinois has blocked two field goal attempts and one extra point attempt.
Edge: Push
Overview
On paper, this should nothing more than a brisk walkthrough for the Badgers. Illinois is going young, playing a number of freshmen in key roles, and those players are taking their lumps. The Illini are last in scoring offense in the Big Ten, while the Badgers are second in scoring defense. Wisconsin is third in scoring offense, while the Illini are 12th in scoring defense. Wisconsin is first in both rush offense and rush defense, while Illinois is last in the conference in both categories. This could get ugly. However, Wisconsin will still need to work on things, such as taking care of the football and keeping the number of penalties low. Illinois will have trouble getting off the field, much like Maryland did. Illinois is 13th in third down defense and Wisconsin is far and away tops in the Big Ten in that category. I see many backups getting plenty of playing time on Saturday.
Prediction: Wisconsin 38, Illinois 10
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