When Wisconsin runs...
Freshman running back Jonathan Taylor ran through Nebraska for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 38-17 win in Lincoln this past Saturday. With the performance, Taylor is now seventh in the nation in rushing (sixth among running backs) and fourth in rush yards per game. The Badgers, as a team, are now 16th. The fabulous frosh has a chance to keep it rolling against a team that comes in 66th in rush yards per game allowed. Purdue has struggled a bit defending the run in Big Ten play, allowing 183 rushing yards per game. They have also been susceptible to the big run, as they have given up three runs of at least 40 yards in the two games. Taylor has 20 carries of at least 10 yards this season. I would bet on him breaking a big one at some point on Saturday. Purdue linebacker T.J. McCollum leads the team in tackles, but was injured in the Minnesota game and his status for the game in unclear. Their depth also has taken a hit, as reserve defensive tackle Keiwan Jones was also injured against the Gophers and will be out. I am assuming safety Jacob Thieneman will playing in the box quite a bit, so they will take a chance and force Alex Hornibrook to beat them. Many teams try that strategy, but few have succeeded.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Hornibrook is incredibly frustrating. He looked so good against BYU, but has looked shaky at best in the first Big Ten games this season. The sophomore has weapons all around, including one of the best tight ends in the nation, Troy Fumagalli, and up-and-coming big-time receiver Quintez Cephus. That is what makes his struggles even more maddening. Having Fumagalli back is a huge plus, as he opens things up for other receivers. He was on the field against Nebraska, but didn’t seem like he was at full strength after missing the conference opener against Northwestern. The star tight end is back near full strength and I think he will have a big day. Purdue will sell out to stop the run and I think Fumagalli will have at least eight catches for 100 yards and a score. Purdue also has only five sacks in five games this season, so if Hornibrook is blitzed and the offensive line picks it up well, the Badgers will have plenty of chances to connect on some big plays in the passing game as well. Like always, Alex will need to make some plays in the passing game. If he doesn’t, then it could be a dog fight. I think he will have a nice game, though.
Edge: Push
When Purdue runs the ball...
It sounds like Purdue’s leading rusher, sophomore Tario Fuller, will miss his second straight game on Saturday. Junior D.J. Knox had a season-high seven carries for 56 yards against Minnesota. He had 409 yards rushing two years ago for the Boilers and is averaging nearly six yards per carry this season, but has only carried it 21 times. After being out since week one with an injury, Markell Jones carried the ball 12 times for 52 yards and the winning score. As a team, Purdue is 94th in rush yards per game, but much of that is due to sacks. They have a decent running game, but most of their yards came against overmatched Ohio and Missouri teams. Against Louisville and Michigan, the Boilers rushed for a total of just 81 yards on 41 carries. Last year, Jones was just held to 30 yards on eight carries against the ferocious Badgers defense. This year, Wisconsin is once again one of the top ranked rush defenses in the country. Despite letting Nebraska’s Devine Ozigbo rush for 112 yards, Bucky’s run defense still ranks fourth in the country, allowing just 81 yards on the ground per game. If Wisconsin can shut down Purdue on the ground and force it to try to beat Bucky through the air, the Badgers will win easily.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Purdue passes the ball...
Purdue has gone with the hot hand at quarterback this year. David Blough has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes, but tends to throw it into coverage quite a bit. He has seven touchdowns and four interceptions after throwing 21 picks last year, which led the country. Elijah Sindelar has thrown with less accuracy, but has taken care of the ball more. Purdue does not have much of a deep threat, but does have a very good redshirt freshman receiver by the name of Jackson Anthrop, the brother of former Purdue wide receiver Danny Anthrop. The younger one leads the Boilermakers in catches with 21 for 207 yards. He also has four scores. Tight end Cole Herdman leads the team in receiving yards with 243, but only has 10 catches. He will still need to be watched closely with his gaudy 24.3 yards per catch. The Purdue quarterbacks spread the ball around quite a bit, as six Boilermakers have at least 10 catches on the season. The depth of the secondary will be tested for Wisconsin. I think the Badgers are up to the challenge, though. Wisconsin is currently 26th in the country in passing yards allowed per game and 20th in opponents quarterback rating. The Badgers have a terrific cornerback duo of Derrick Tindal and Nick Nelson, and Dontye Carriere-Williams is coming into his own as well. Purdue has given up 17 sacks, which is 122nd in the country in sacks allowed per game. Wisconsin has sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times, which is 14th in the country, but eight of them came in one game against Northwestern two weeks ago. If the Badgers can get some pressure on Purdue quarterbacks, they can force them into mistakes and give Bucky’s offense a short field to work with.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Wisconsin clearly has the edge at kicker, as Rafael Gaglianone is one of the most solid kickers in the conference. The junior is 5-of-6 with a long of 37, which he hit against Nebraska. Purdue, on the other hand, struggles mightily at kicker. The two kickers, J.D. Dellinger and Spencer Evans, are a combined 5-of-9. After starting out 2-of-2, Evans has missed his last two, although both were long attempts. Joe Schopper is a solid punter for Purdue, averaging 44 yards per punt, and leads the Big Ten in net punting, and has put 10 of his 25 inside the 20. Anthony Lotti is middle of the pack in punting, and has put seven of his 20 inside the opponents 20. Both teams return units are subpar, with Wisconsin being a bit better at both.
Edge: Wisconsin
Overview
Wisconsin will need to not look past Purdue after the big win in Lincoln. The Boilermakers are more than capable of sneaking up on teams and pulling an upset. I don’t think Paul Chryst’s bunch will play them lightly, though. If Wisconsin comes out and plays like it is capable of, Bucky will win. I think Purdue will stay close for a half, but the Badgers pull away in the second half. However, it’d be nice to see Wisconsin jump out early, though. Like always, it will depend on the quarterback play. If Hornibrook plays well, Bucky should win going away. Jonathan Taylor will have another monster day.
Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Purdue 16
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