Orange Bowl Preview: Wisconsin Badgers (12-1) vs. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

For the first time in school history, the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers are playing in the Orange Bowl, taking on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes. This will be the 10th appearance in this bowl for Miami, but the first since the 2004 Orange Bowl when the Hurricanes defeated Florida State 16-14. Both teams come in disappointed, as they both lost their conference championship and a berth in the College Football Playoff. Wisconsin fell 27-21 to Ohio State, while Miami was smashed by No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship game 38-3. After starting out 10-0, ‘The U’ has lost two consecutive games in convincing fashion to Pittsburgh and Clemson, and even in its last win, the Canes had to come back and defeat an average Virginia team at home. The series is tied at two wins apiece, with Wisconsin winning the last game, a 20-14 win over the Canes in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl. The Badgers come in having won their last three bowl games after losing four straight from the 2010-2013 seasons. Miami broke a six-game bowl losing streak with a 31-14 win over West Virginia in last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl. Wisconsin has won at least 10 games in six of the last eight seasons, but never have the Badgers won 13 games in a season. They have a chance to change that on Saturday. This is the first time Wisconsin has played a true road game in its bowl since the 1999 Rose Bowl against UCLA. It should be a great, low-scoring game between two good defenses.

When Wisconsin runs...

The Badgers are coming off by far their worst rushing performance of the season, rushing 32 times for just 60 yards against Ohio State. Not surprisingly, star freshman Jonathan Taylor had his worst game as well, running for just 41 yards on 15 totes. His previous low for the season was 73 yards against Illinois in which he left with an injury in the first half. Still, the Freshman All-American and second team All-American has rushed for 1,847 yards and 13 scores. After being shut down by Ohio State’s front seven, Wisconsin fell to No. 21 in rush yards per game. Fortunately, Miami does not have as talented of a defensive line as Ohio State’s. The Canes have a defensive line is solid, but the Buckeyes defensive line is one of the best in the country. Miami comes in at 41st in the country in rush yards allowed per game, but has only allowed 3.5 yards per carry. Even in the blowout against Clemson, Miami only allowed 77 yards on the ground and less than two yards per carry. Pitt gained 152 yards on the ground, but still only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Wisconsin will need to try to loosen up the Miami run defense up the middle with a few jet sweeps with Kendric Pryor, or even Taylor, which the Badgers have done a number of times. Pryor and Danny Davis were each given a carry against Ohio State and gained a total of five yards, so they were not able to find much running room, like the freshman phenom. This is a strength vs. strength matchup. Notre Dame’s Josh Adams had a big season, but was shut down by Miami, gaining just 40 yards on 16 carries. The Hurricanes have faced four teams in the top 33 in rush yards per game (Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Toledo, Clemson) and have allowed just 3.01 yards per carry in those four games. If you take out the Ramblin’ Wreck, which runs the triple option, the Canes have allowed a total of 271 yards on the ground in the other three games and just 2.4 yards per carry. Another area where Taylor will need to be careful is his fumbling problems. For as good as he has been this year, the freshman has coughed the ball up to the other team five times. Miami has recovered 13 fumbles this season. Ball security is a major concern going into the game. The Wisconsin offensive line will have its hands full with the Miami front seven and the Badgers will need to run the ball effectively in order to move it consistently.

Edge: Push

When Wisconsin passes...

Alex Hornibrook will need to have a nice game in order for the Badgers to come out on top, especially if Taylor is bottled up like against Ohio State. Miami certainly has the ability to slow down the star freshman, like I mentioned above. Hornibrook will certainly have to play better than he did in his last outing against the Buckeyes. This season, the sophomore quarterback is ninth all-time in passing yardage for a season, and has a real chance to move up to sixth with a decent showing against the Hurricanes. He also is third in passing touchdowns for a season (21) in school history and trails John Stocco by one for second place. His 21 touchdowns are overshadowed by his 15 interceptions, and rightly so. Of those 15 picks thrown, 14 have come in the last 10 games and threw at least one interception in nine of the 10 Big Ten games, including the Big Ten Championship. He will need to take much better care of the ball because the opportunistic Miami defense comes in ninth in interceptions with 17 (tied with Wisconsin, in fact) and is tied for second in the country in turnover differential at plus-15. Much of the success of Hornibrook will depend on the effectiveness of Taylor, and quite possibly, vice versa. The Badgers will once again be without top two wide receivers, Jazz Peavy and Quintez Cephus, who are out for the season. However, there is still talent there. In the four games Cephus has been out, freshman wide receiver Danny Davis has stepped up in a big way. catching 13 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown. A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor are also solid targets for Hornibrook. But the top receiving weapon for the Badgers in this game (and every game) has to be Mackey Award finalist Troy Fumagalli. He has been a bit of a forgotten man in the passing game, not exceeding three catches in all but one of the last 10 regular season games. Fumagalli was able to have a decent showing against Ohio State in Indianapolis, though, and caught five passes for 45 yards, his most yards receiving since his 83-yard effort in October against Maryland. It was a bit of a disappointing season for the tight end in receiving, but he can make up for that on Saturday. In last year’s bowl game, he was a man amongst boys, catching six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown in the 24-16 win over Western Michigan. Miami comes in at 52nd in the country in passing yards allowed per game, but all the other pass defense stats are in its favor. Opponents yards per attempt? 16th. Passing touchdowns? Tied for 29th. Interceptions? As I mentioned, tied for ninth. Quarterback sacks? Tied for second. Passing efficiency? 18th. Yeah, Miami’s defense is pretty good. Hornibrook will have to make a few plays through the air in order to be able to move the ball against this great defense.

Edge: Miami

When Miami runs...

The Hurricanes lost their starting running back Mark Walton, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 428 yards in his four starts. Travis Homer has taken over the lead back role and has played well. In his eight starts, he averaged six yards per carry and rushed for more than 900 yards. However, he was shut down in Miami’s two losses, rushing for 53 yards on 21 carries combined. As a matter of fact, Miami rushed for just 149 yards total in the two losses on 53 carries, for an average of just 2.5 yards per carry. Overall, the Canes just finished 72nd in the country in rushing yards per game (159.7), but jump up to 30th in yards per carry at five yards per tote. Like Wisconsin, Miami will need to lean on the running game in order to come out on top because neither quarterback is capable of being able to win the game for them. Also, like against the Buckeyes and J.T. Barrett, Bucky will have to watch for quarterback runs. Rosier’s 427 yards rushing are just one yard shy of second on the team. Rosier had five games with at least 40 yards on the ground, including 84 yards against Virginia Tech. He also has ran for five scores. The Badgers, on the other hand, are tremendous at stopping the run. However, Ohio State gashed Wisconsin on the ground to the tune of 238 yards, the most Bucky’s defense has allowed in three years. Fortunately, Miami’s offense is not Ohio State’s. As solid as Homer is, he is not J.K. Dobbins, and Miami’s offensive line is not Ohio State’s. Even with the poor showing in the Big Ten Championship game, Wisconsin still ranks No. 2 in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (92.6), No. 5 in yards per carry (3.0) and tied for first in the country in rushing touchdowns allowed (5). After hearing about how they were gashed against “their only real opponent,” I think this defense will come out with an edge and be able to shut down the Hurricanes ground game and force Malik Rosier to beat them.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Miami passes...

Miami has struggled mightily on offense recently, and the biggest problem has been the quarterback, Malik Rosier. He was actually benched during the loss to Pittsburgh, but would return after backup Evan Shirreffs misfired on his two pass attempts. In that loss, Rosier would only complete 15 of 34 pass attempts for 187 yards. He did not throw a pick, but he did get sacked and fumble to end the Hurricanes comeback attempt. As a matter of fact, Rosier, a junior, has not completed 54 percent of his passes in five of his last six games, and has been under 50 percent in three of them. The Miami quarterback has also thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last five games, including three in the win over Virginia Tech last month. For the season, his stats aren’t bad, having a nearly 55 percent completion percentage to go along with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Unfortunately for Rosier and Miami, the Canes have major injury issues in the receiving core. First, tight end Christopher Herndon IV is out for the year with an MCL injury. Herndon (40-477-4) is the second leading receiver for the Canes and is one of the better receiving tight ends in the country. Third leading receiver Ahmmon Richards is also out for the year, suffering a torn meniscus in a practice leading up to the ACC Championship game and he is also out for the season. Being without its top two wide receivers, I highly doubt Wisconsin will feel sorry for the ACC runners up. Still, Miami has a major weapon in the passing game, senior wide receiver Braxton Berrios. The 5-10 Berrios ranks among the best receivers Wisconsin has faced this year. This will be the best pass defense Miami has faced this year, though. Bucky’s defense ranks fourth in opponent’s passing yards per game, first in passing efficiency, fourth in completion percentage and third in yards per attempt. Also, starting safety D’Cota Dixon will be at full strength for the first time since before the Illinois game Oct. 28. Having him at less than 100 percent hurt them in the Big Ten Championship game, as backup Joe Ferguson was beaten for the 84-yard touchdown in the opening quarter. Wisconsin can also get opposing quarterbacks, registering 39 sacks on the year. Nick Nelson vs. Berrios will be one of the matchups to keep an eye on. If Nelson can shut down Miami’s top wide receiver like he did against Maryland’s D.J. Moore, the Badgers will be in great shape.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Both kickers are extremely reliable, with Miami’s Michael Badgley having made 16 of 20 attempts this season, while Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone has made 14 of 16. Interestingly, about Badgley, he has been money inside of 40, having made all 14 of his attempts. However, he is just 2-of-6 from 40 and beyond. Gaglianone has made all three of his attempts from at least 40 yards, including a career-long 52-yard field goal against Illinois at the end of the first half. Gaglianone’s 58 field goals rank third in school history, and just one behind Philip Welch for second all-time. Barring injury, the junior will easily break the program record of 65 by Todd Gregoire. His 87.5 percent accuracy this year currently ranks second, but the top spot appears out of reach. Miami’s punter is freshman Zach Feagles, the son of former NFL punter Jeff Feagles. His average of 38.6 yards per punt won’t wow you, but of his 44 punts, 17 have ended inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Wisconsin sophomore Anthony Lotti is having a decent year, having nearly an identical average as Feagles, but has a little bit higher average on pinning opponent’s inside their 20, having done so on 12 of 28 punts. He also has had one blocked. Miami may have a big advantage in the return game. In addition to being a great receiver, Berrios is also a very good punt returner. He does not return many (only 12 on the year), but has returned them at an average of a little more than 16 yards per return. Among qualified players, Wisconsin’s Nelson is 24th, at 8.5 yards per return. Miami’s Jeff Thomas is a decent kick returner, but I am not sure he’ll get many opportunities to return with Zach Hintze as the kickoff man for the Badgers. I’ll give the edge to the Canes here, but not by much.

Edge: Miami

Overview

This should be a great, low-scoring game. If you enjoy shootouts with no defense being played, this is not the bowl game for you. Miami has limped into the Orange Bowl, having been beaten convincingly in two consecutive games. Wisconsin has a chance to win 13 games for the first time in school history. I think the Badgers are a better team, especially with all the injuries on offense for the Hurricanes, but Wisconsin will need to take care of the ball. Miami is a ball-hawking defense and the Badgers cannot afford to consistently give the Canes the ball with good field position. If Wisconsin can avoid costly mistakes, I think the Badgers will win a close one and finish 13-1.

Prediction: Wisconsin 16, Miami 13

Ohio State/Wisconsin review

Wisconsin suffered its first loss in the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State, falling 27-21 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Badgers fell to 12-1 and failed to advance to the College Football Playoffs for the first time in the four year history of the playoffs. Despite being outgained 449-298, Wisconsin had a chance to win late in the game, but missed a 4th-and-20 with 1:09 remaining to seal the game. Bucky has now lost six consecutive games against the Buckeyes, but has lost five of them by one score. Ohio State’s defense held the vaunted Wisconsin ground game to just 60 yards, 183 yards under its season average. The Buckeyes, like every other team, made an effort to shut down star freshman Jonathan Taylor with the difference being Ohio State actually had the talent to do just that. Taylor came in third in the country in rushing, and he was held to 41 yards on 15 carries. Ohio State was the only team that was able to successfully try and make Alex Hornibrook beat them. The sophomore quarterback was not great, and he needed to be in order for Wisconsin to win. Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins dominated the battle of star freshmen running backs, running for 174 yards on 17 carries. J.T. Barrett was the difference, accounting for all of the Ohio State touchdowns, throwing for two scores and running for another. For as good as the defense has been this season, it let them down this past Saturday, and so the Badgers are 12-1.

Wisconsin may have lost, but when it seemed like Ohio State could do no wrong and was in front 21-7, the team fought back and only allowed a pair of field goals in the final 41 minutes of the game. The Badgers are a second half team and after giving up 309 yards in the first half, the No. 1 ranked defense allowed only 140 yards in the second half and gave the team a chance to win it at the end. Wisconsin showed a ton of fight and after falling behind 21-7. It could have been easy to just wave the white flag, but the team made some plays in the second half and came back to make it a game. The team also bounced back after all three touchdowns in the first half, where they forced two turnovers and a three-and-out in the three drives following the Buckeyes touchdowns. It has happened throughout this season, but when the team gets behind, the resiliency shown has been outstanding. They didn’t come all the way back, but they played really well to come back, showing its heart.

Leon Jacobs and Garret Dooley will be gone at the conclusion of the season, which will open up spots for others, such Andrew Van Ginkel. The junior had a terrific game against Ohio State, picking off a Barrett pass and returning it for a touchdown as well as forcing a fumble and recovering it. While the Wisconsin offense was struggling to consistently move the ball against the Ohio State defense in the first half, Van Ginkel single-handedly kept the Badgers in the game with the two turnovers forced in the first half. Those takeaways led to the only 10 points of the first half by Wisconsin. Hopefully that was a sign of things to come, as he will be the leader of the outside linebackers next season and one of the main pass rushers.

Also, junior kicker Rafael Gaglianone continued his stellar campaign, connecting on field goals from 28 and 46 yards to improve to 14-of-16 on the year. His 87.5 percent field goal percentage would tie his career-best, set last year, which he made 7-of-8 before missing the final 11 games of the season with a back injury. If that holds, it would be the best field goal percentage by a Wisconsin kicker since Matt Davenport connected on 19-of-21 (90.5 percent) in 1998. After missing all those games last year and having to redshirt, Gaglianone has improved as this season has gone on, making his last eight field goal attempts, including his career-long 52-yard kick to end the first half against Illinois. He has been a real weapon for the Badgers and will continue to be next year. The Brazilian is third in Wisconsin history with 58 field goals made, just one behind Philip Welch and seven behind Todd Gregoire.

Unfortunately, there were plenty of negatives from this game, the most this season. First off, Hornibrook is an average college quarterback. He is not terrible, but he will not be able to win many games for the Badgers and will certainly not be able to lead the program to its first national championship. The sophomore missed some throws a college quarterback should be able to make. Hornibrook will improve in the coming two years with the Badgers, but his deficiencies will kill Wisconsin. His inconsistency is maddening, going just 19-of-40 for 229 yards and two picks after playing very well in his final three halves of the regular season. Hornibrook can look solid against the lesser teams, but he needed to play a great game against Ohio State and failed to do that. Like I said, he will improve, but I don’t think his ceiling is that of a championship-winning quarterback, which is what the Badgers should be aiming for. In addition to inconsistency, his mobility, or lack thereof, is a huge flaw in his game. Every great quarterback can move around in the pocket to elude the rush and make plays outside the pocket. Now, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are (or were) not the most mobile quarterbacks in the world, but they make up for that with their intelligence. Those two have terrific accuracy and can throw it deep downfield when need be. You don’t see that with Hornibrook. Obviously, he doesn’t have to play like two of the best quarterbacks of all-time, but if he was even one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the country, Bucky would be playing for a national title.

For as good as well as the offensive line had played all year, the big guys up front were manhandled by Ohio State’s defensive front. As I mentioned earlier, Taylor had just 41 yards on 15 carries, by far his lowest yardage output of the season. His previous low was 73 at Illinois in which he was injured in the first half. In addition to the leading rusher in the conference being held to just 41 yards, the pass blocking was having all sorts of trouble stopping the Ohio State pass rush. Hornibrook was sacked three times and hurried four other times. It seemed like he was being pressured constantly and the Wisconsin quarterback did not respond well to it. The offensive line couldn’t run block and it was having trouble pass blocking. If you add those two things together and it equals fewer than 300 yards of total offense, just 14 offensive points scored and the first loss of the season. The Badgers needed to control the line of scrimmage in order to come away with a win, and just the opposite happened.

I will just lump the entire defense into one paragraph, as the defense played its worst game of the year by far. Early in the season, the defense had a bit of a problem giving up big plays, having given up three 50+ yard plays in its first five games. That problem arose again in the Big Ten Championship game. After giving just those three plays of 50 yards or more in the first five games, the Badgers defense did not allow any such plays the remainder of the season. Then Ohio State was able to bust off four of them. The longest rush allowed by Wisconsin all season prior to Saturday was 28 yards. Dobbins had runs of 53 and 77 in the game, which set up 10 Buckeyes points. Those four big plays totaled 271 yards and set Ohio State up for 24 of its 27 points. Other than those plays, the Badgers defense played really well, giving up just 178 yards in 64 plays, an average of just 2.8 yards per play. But obviously you can't ignore those game-changing plays. One of the big plays annoyed me the most. With Ohio State facing a 2nd-and-10 from its own 43 late in the first quarter, Barrett threw a wide receiver screen to Parris Campbell. The talking heads will use the speed cliche, but if you actually watched the game, it was horrible tackling. On the screen, Campbell broke tackle attempts from Natrell Jamerson and Nick Nelson four yards down field and all the Ohio State receiver had to do was outrun Chris Orr and he was in the end zone to give the Buckeyes the lead back. The missed tackles were a theme in the game, and it was unusual since the Badgers defense had done so well in that area up to that point. No, it was not the speed of Ohio State that beat Wisconsin. It was the missed tackles. Two of the big plays in the first half by OSU were helped by missed tackles. That was the story of the first half. It was corrected in the second half, but the offense did not have the firepower to overcome the bad tackling and big plays given up by the defense in the first half.

Even with the win, Ohio State was passed up by Alabama for the fourth and final spot in the CFP and will play USC in the Cotton Bowl, which the Badgers played in last season. In that bowl, Bucky defeated previously undefeated Western Michigan 24-16. With its first loss, Wisconsin will travel to Miami to take on the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl. It is the first Orange Bowl appearance in school history. Wisconsin will play at the opposing team’s stadium in its bowl for the first time since defeating UCLA 38-31 in the 1999 Rose Bowl. The game will be Dec. 30 at 7 p.m. CST and televised on ESPN with Steve Levy and Brian Griese on the call.

Big Ten Championship Game Preview: Ohio State (10-2) vs. Wisconsin (12-0)

We have finally arrived. Wisconsin comes in with a chance to make the College Football Playoff for the first time in its brief history. Ohio State, on the other hand, has an outside shot of getting in as well. It would likely need a win and a TCU upset of Oklahoma in order to make the Playoffs. If Oklahoma and Ohio State both win, the committee would likely bump Alabama into the top four even though it did not win its conference. However, Wisconsin’s path is simple: win and it’s in. It would not be a stretch to call this the biggest game in Wisconsin football history. The Badgers are also trying to redeem themselves after losing 59-0 in the 2014 Big Ten Championship game. The Big Ten Championship game has been around seven years, and this is the fifth time Wisconsin has played in Indianapolis. In the previous four, Bucky is 2-2, but has lost the previous two times, including that awful game three years ago. Wisconsin also blew a 28-7 second quarter lead last year, falling to Penn State 38-31. It’s not as bad as the 28-3 lead blown two months later by Atlanta, but still....not good. Ohio State has not made the trip to Indianapolis since that 2014 game. It is the third time in this game for the Buckeyes, which are 1-1 in their previous two.

In the last meeting between these two teams, Ohio State came back from a 16-6 halftime deficit last year to win 30-23 in overtime at Camp Randall Stadium. J.T. Barrett won the game for Ohio State, completing 17-of-29 for 226 yards with a touchdown and an interception, as well as running for 92 yards and two more scores. Jack Cichy, who unfortunately will not be playing this year, had a career game in last year’s meeting, recording 15 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack. For his efforts, he was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week. Plenty of the players are the same, but there are many new faces as well. It should be a great battle for a fight to (possibly) go to the College Football Playoff.

When Wisconsin runs...

Heisman candidate Jonathan Taylor has had a tremendous year, rushing for 1,806 yards and 13 touchdowns, which ranks third in the country. In the 12 games for Wisconsin, Taylor has rushed for at least 100 yards in nine of them, and in two of the three he didn’t reach the century mark was when he did not start and received only nine carries (Utah State) and when he was injured in the first half (Illinois). He also averages seven yards per carry on the season and has reached at least five yards per carry in all but one game. As a team, the Badgers rank 17th, averaging just over 243 yards on the ground per. Ohio State comes in at No. 13 in rush yards allowed per game, the second best run defense Wisconsin has faced this year in rush yards allowed per game. However, the 3.1 yards per carry allowed by the Buckeyes is the best Bucky has faced this season. After being gashed by Iowa to the tune of 243 yards in the Hawkeyes 55-24 beatdown earlier this month, Ohio State has regained focus and allowed just an average 84.3 yards per game since and is allowing just 2.6 yards per carry. Illinois’ Dre Brown had the best day, rushing for 76 yards against this fierce Buckeyes front. Taylor, on the other hand, has only rushed for 76 or fewer yards once this season, and that was against Illinois when he was injured in the first half. With Ohio State preparing to stop the run, Paul Chryst will have to utilize play action on early downs to try to move the ball against this stout front four and to loosen up the defense in order to find running room for Taylor. In the last two games, the star freshman has been unable to move the ball in the first half before Alex Hornibrook started beating teams through the air and forcing Michigan and Minnesota to respect the pass. It will be a chess match between Chryst and Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano. I look forward to seeing it.

Edge: Push

When Wisconsin passes...

I mentioned in the last paragraph that Chryst will have to use Hornibrook on early downs to set up the run. Fortunately, for him and Wisconsin, the sophomore quarterback is playing his best ball of the season right now, considering his opponents. After throwing an interception in the third quarter against Michigan, Hornibrook has caught fire, going 19-of-28 (68 percent) for 250 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Wolverines have one of the best pass defenses in the country, while Minnesota’s is decent. When passing the ball, Hornibrook will need to look at Mackey Award finalist Troy Fumagalli. The big tight end has not been as much of a focal point in the passing game as I thought he would be going into the year, but he still caught 39 passes and four scores, which is a career high. He has not had more than three catches and 40 yards since the Maryland game in October. Still, I expect him to be a big part of the game plan on Saturday, especially against a team that was dominated by Iowa’s tight ends. Iowa tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant combined for nine catches for 125 yards and four touchdowns against the Buckeyes. Maybe Kyle Penniston will be a part of the game plan as well. In addition to being a really good run defense, the Buckeyes are a good pass defense as well. In pass yards allowed per game, Ohio State was 14th and 24th in opponents passing efficiency. The Buckeyes have given up 16 touchdown passes on the year and have intercepted 10 passes, both middle of the pack in the country. It is weird to see them not near the top of the country in interceptions, but that will happen when they had to replace three first round draft picks from last year’s great secondary. Wisconsin will need to throw it early, like I stated earlier, to loosen up the Buckeyes front and keep them guessing. What the Badgers cannot have happen is for them to consistently face third-and-longs because OSU has perhaps the best defensive line in the nation, led by Joey’s little brother, Nick Bosa. Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis also wreak havoc for opposing quarterbacks. Overall, Ohio State is fifth in the Big Ten in sacks with 34, but also have 95 tackles for loss, which ranks 10th in the country. Nineteen players have at least two tackles for loss, led by Bosa with 12.5. This will be a major test for Wisconsin’s offensive line, which leads the Big Ten in sacks allowed, having given up just 17 all year. If the Badgers are to win, Hornibrook and Fumagalli will need to come up huge. The tight end needs at least seven catches on Saturday. That is my challenge to Hornibrook and Fumagalli.

Edge: Ohio State

When Ohio State runs...

Like Wisconsin, Ohio State is a running team. Unlike Wisconsin, though, Ohio State uses its quarterback, J.T. Barrett, almost as much as it runs with its running backs. I mentioned how big Barrett was in last year’s game, when the Buckeyes quarterback rushed 21 times for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His second touchdown run came on a 3rd-and-6 from the Badgers 8 when he eluded the rush and found room on the right to scamper in to give Ohio State a 20-16 advantage early in the fourth. The Wisconsin defense will have to account for Barrett’s legs first, but he has thrown for more than 2,700 yards and 33 scores this year. Ohio State’s quarterback has also racked up nearly 700 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. He is a true dual threat quarterback, but most games he uses his legs to set up his arm. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, Ohio State also a terrific freshman running back, J.K. Dobbins. OSU’s fabulous freshman does not have the carries that Taylor has, but he still has 1,190 yards and seven touchdowns, not to mention has a yards per carry average (7.3) that is actually better than Taylor’s. Dobbins only has carried the ball more than 15 times in a game twice this season, but he has made the most of his opportunities. If you want to know how much talent the Buckeyes have at running back, consider the fact that 2016 Big Ten Freshman of the Year Mike Weber is now a backup. Weber ran for 1,096 yards and nine touchdowns in 2016 and has run for just 602 yards in 2017, but did score 10 touchdowns. Even though he does not get as many carries this season, he is still incredibly dangerous when he does get it. Weber has reached the century mark in rushing in two of the last three games. It will be a tough task for Wisconsin’s No. 1 ranked rush defense, but I think it will be up to the challenge. In every single category in rush defense, the Badgers are ranked in the top two nationally. Rush yards allowed per game? First, by a wide margin (80.5). Rushing touchdowns allowed? First (4). Yards per carry? Second (2.6). As a matter of fact, the Badgers are the only team in the country to have not allowed 1,000 yards on the ground (966). The longest rush the defense has allowed all year is only 28 yards. So, yeah, this unit is good. The linebackers are great at flowing to the football, led by Butkus Award finalist T.J. Edwards. Iowa’s Akrum Wadley had 118 yards on 20 carries against Ohio State a few weeks ago......the same Wadley who had eight carries for a season-low 23 yards against Wisconsin the following week. It will be the most intriguing matchup to watch on Saturday.

Edge: Push

When Ohio State passes...

Let me say this: I know Barrett was hurt against Michigan, but there is no way he does not play. He has yet to play in a Big Ten Championship game since Ohio State has not played in it since 2014 and Barrett missed the game due to injury and Barrett’s Buckeyes have a shot at the College Football Playoff. He’s a tough dude and would play in a wheelchair if he had to. I wonder how it will affect his mobility since I doubt he will be at full strength. Barrett is having a nice season with more than 2,700 yards and has thrown 33 touchdowns and has just thrown just seven interceptions. This has been a stellar senior campaign for Barrett, easily his best since his freshman season. Eleven players have caught a touchdown pass for Ohio State, led by Johnnie Dixon’s eight. Dixon has eight touchdown catches and has only caught 17 passes all year. Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill each have 519 yards receiving and have combined for 88 receptions and five touchdowns. Nine players have at least 17 catches and eight have at least 200 yards receiving, so Barrett spreads the ball around. In addition to having a great run defense, Wisconsin’s pass defense is also really good. The Badgers have as good of a cornerback duo as the Buckeyes have faced all year. In pass yards per game, Wisconsin is second in the country, No. 4 in completion percentage and is No. 1 in pass efficiency. The Badgers have picked off 15 passes, which is tied for second in the conference. However, they have not intercepted a pass in either of the last two games. Also, Wisconsin has sacked opposing quarterbacks 39 times in the 12 games, which is tied for the most in the conference. However, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the conference in allowing sacks, only two behind Wisconsin in that category (19). I do believe the Badgers are better equipped to handle deep receiving cores than they were last year, as Penn State dominated against Wisconsin’s Nos. three and four cornerbacks. Dontye Carriere-Williams has had a nice season as the nickel cornerback for the Badgers behind starters Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal. Nelson leads the country in pass break-ups with 20, and does not have an interception yet this year, but I do think one is coming soon. One of the keys will be getting a pass rush on Barrett, and it will be interesting to see if they are successful in doing that.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

This will be a tough matchup for Wisconsin, as Ohio State has one of the best special teams units in the country. Both kickers are incredibly accurate, as Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 12-of-14 on the year and Ohio State’s Sean Nuernberger is 14-of-17. However, neither kicker as been challenged all that much, combining to attempt only five field goals past 40 yards. Gaglianone is 2-of-2 in that regard, with a long of 52, while Nuernberger is just 1-of-3 from 40 and beyond with a long of 43. The Buckeyes have a big edge in punting, as Drue Chrisman is second in punting average in the conference with 20 of his 39 punts being downed inside the opponents 20. In addition to being a good wide receiver, Campbell averages 36.6 yards on kickoff returns. Wisconsin needs Zach Hintze to keep the ball from getting in the hands of Campbell. Hintze has been a touchback machine and the game will be played indoors, so I would assume Campbell will have limited opportunities to touch the ball in the return game. Nelson is a solid punt returner for the Badgers, having an average of nine yards per punt return, including returning a punt return 50 yards for a score against Michigan two weeks ago.

Edge: Ohio State

Overview

This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Badgers. One win and they’re in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State is their nemesis, having lost five consecutive games against the Buckeyes, with four of the five coming by one score. It will be a fun atmosphere at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday. I think Wisconsin quietly feels it is disrespected, as it comes in at 12-0 and is yet a 6.5-point underdog to Ohio State. The West needs a strong showing, as the East has won all three Championship games under the current East/West format. After sleep walking through the first nine games of the season, the Badgers had two tough games and a big rivalry game to end the year. Wisconsin played perhaps its best games of the season in those last three and will be a hot team coming into Indianapolis. Ohio State also comes in red hot, winning its last three by an average of 31.3 points per game since being blasted by Iowa....and two of those three wins are against two of the five best teams in the conference. This will be a fun matchup that will be decided by turnovers. If Wisconsin takes care of the football, I think Bucky comes away with the win and the berth in the College Football Playoff.

Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Ohio State 23

12-0: My review of Wisconsin's 31-0 win over Minnesota

For the first time since 1912, the Wisconsin Badgers have gone through the entire regular season undefeated. Back then, Wisconsin was 7-0, while Bucky is 12-0 this time around. It was perhaps the best game of the season, as Wisconsin pounded the Minnesota Golden Gophers 31-0 Saturday in Minneapolis. It is the first shutout against Minnesota since 1982 and the first shutout in Minneapolis since 1922. Overall, it was the first shutout by Wisconsin since a 28-0 victory over Hawaii in 2015 and it was the first conference shutout since 2014 when the Badgers clobbered Rutgers 37-0. This is also the second time in school history that Wisconsin has won 12 games in a single season (2006). It was a poor finish to the season for Minnesota, as it lost by a combined 70-0 in its last two games this season. There are so many stats to cover after this game that I have not even mentioned this is the 14th consecutive year the Badgers have knocked off the Gophers to keep Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Also, with the win, Wisconsin takes the series lead 60-59-8, its first series lead. Alex Hornibrook won his 18th consecutive game as a starting quarterback, which leads the country. The Badgers also improved to 19-2 in their last 21 November games. Ohio State is the one team that stands in between Wisconsin and a trip to the College Football Playoff. J.T. Barrett was injured during Ohio State’s win at Michigan, so we’ll have to monitor his progress as the week progresses. Of course, Barrett was injured against Michigan in 2014 and then proceeded to crush Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship en route to a National Championship with Cardale Jones. This was such a good performance that I can’t even find anything to be truly upset about, so I’ll just list a number of positives from this dominating performance.

It was a team effort, as cliche as it is. However, I will start out with giving props to Hornibrook. This was easily his best performance since BYU. The sophomore quarterback was 15-of-19 for 151 yards and three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. His numbers may not wow you, but he put the ball right on the money most of the time. His best throw was a pass to Kendric Pryor on Wisconsin’s first drive of the second half. Hornibrook took a huge shot, but threw a great pass to Pryor for 31 yards to the Minnesota 11. Three plays later, the Wisconsin quarterback threw a perfect slant pass to Danny Davis for the score that essentially ended any hope for a Gophers comeback. With Minnesota crowding the box on early downs, Hornibrook needed to make plays on first down. He did just that, completing 6-of-6 passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. It was not just his stats, but the velocity of his throws was terrific, fitting the ball into tight windows consistently. He now has 21 touchdown passes this season, which ties him with John Stocco (2005) for third most in school history for touchdown passes in a single season. He trails Joel Stave (2013) by one for second place. His 30 career touchdown passes are ninth all-time. Maybe even more important than having three touchdown passes is the fact that he did not throw an interception. It was the first game in Big Ten play that Hornibrook did not throw it to the opposition. The Wisconsin quarterback has played his best football the last five and a half quarters and will be a hot quarterback going into the date with Ohio State this weekend.

This game was much like the Michigan game in terms of the rushing attack. After gaining just 41 yards on 12 carries (3.4 yards per carry) in the first half, Jonathan Taylor dominated the second half, rushing eight times for 108 yards, including his 53-yard score. His score was only his second touchdown in five games. Those 108 yards came on just two drives in the second half before giving way to Chris James with the game out of reach. Taylor just gets better as the game moves along. He remains third in the nation in rushing yards with 1,806, behind only San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny and Stanford’s Bryce Love. For his efforts, Taylor earned his eighth Big Ten Freshman of the Week honor, surpassing current Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett for most all-time. However, he does have a flaw that came back to bite him again against the Gophers, as he tends to put the ball on the turf. Taylor lost his fifth fumble of the season. He’ll need to clean that up moving forward. That is really the only negative from this game. The freshman standout is making his case to end up in New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation. Taylor won’t win it, but being a finalist for the award would be a tremendous accomplishment. He also has two more years to potentially win the Heisman as well. Going into the season, the Badgers thought they’d have a nice 1-2 punch at running back with Bradrick Shaw and Chris James. But with Shaw not being as effective as many had hoped and James being injured much of the season, Taylor has taken the starting running back job and ran with it, literally. There is no way Bucky is where he is today without Taylor. I will mention also about James in this, as he had a nice game in relief of Taylor, both when he needed a break and when he put in permanently due to the score. With Shaw getting injured in the first half, James carried the ball seven times for 51 yards, including a 29-yard run late in the second quarter that helped set up the Kyle Penniston touchdown to put the Badgers in front 17-0. Bravo Chris James. He will be needed moving forward in the final two (or three) games in relief of Taylor, especially if Shaw is out long term. The team, as a whole, rushed for 287 yards on 39 carries for an average of 7.35 yards per carry. That is the highest yards per carry since rushing for 7.41 yards per carry in the 2015 Outback Bowl win against Auburn.

I mentioned how great the running game was against Minnesota, especially late. Well, much of that has to do with how tremendous the play of the offensive line has been. I mentioned the rushing yards, but the pass protection was great as well. There were very few times Hornibrook was even pressured. And even when he was, more often than not, he delivered a perfect throw like the long pass to Pryor. The play of the line can take some credit for that 15-of-19 showing from Hornibrook. I will throw everybody in there when talking about the blocking. The down field blocking was superb once again. On Austin Ramesh’s 41-yard run, after turning the corner and eluding a defender, Penniston threw a great down field block on Minnesota’s Duke McGhee, springing Ramesh for an extra 15 yards to move Wisconsin into the red zone. Beau Benzschawel also threw some great blocks on long runs for the Badgers. The first was on Garrett Groshek’s 27-yard run, which set up Bucky with a 1st-and-Goal from the five, which preceeded the Penniston touchdown right before halftime. The second big block from him was on Taylor’s touchdown run on the first play of the fourth quarter. That was not the only big block on that touchdown run. On any long run, you need great blocking from the wide receivers, and Danny Davis provided just that. In addition to being an emerging receiving target, Davis has become a tremendous blocker as well. As you may recall, in his first game at Wisconsin, he blocked three Utah State players on a touchdown by Zander Neuville. That was our introduction to him. He has done more of the same in that area this season. On Taylor’s touchdown, Davis’ block of Minnesota defensive back Antonio Shenault sprung the Wisconsin running back for the score. Obviously, none of those big runs happen without the blocking at the first level. I could say this every week, but superb job by the offensive line and tight ends, as well as their wide receivers for their blocking. Kudos to all of them. Throughout the season, it has been amazing. Without them, Taylor would not be in the Heisman discussion.

And finally, how about that defense? Now, I know Minnesota’s offense is putrid, but to hold the Gophers to 80 yards through three quarters is phenomenal, I don’t care what team you play. The Minnesota offense was held to just 13 yards through the first 29 minutes of the game and had three-and-outs on its first five possessions of the half and six of its 10 drives for the game. The Badgers outgained the Gophers 456-133 for the game and held them to just 40 yards passing on three completions. The three completions allowed were even fewer than Nate Stanley’s eight on his 41 yards passing against Iowa. I mentioned in my preview for the game that Minnesota would need to rush for at least 150 yards in order to have a chance. Well, they didn’t. The Gophers ran for 93 yards on 39 carries, an average of just 2.4 yards per carry, and 25 of that came on one carry from Rodney Smith late in the first half. The result? Zero points in a 31-0 beatdown at the hands of their biggest rivals. The Wisconsin defense sacked Demry Croft twice and added seven tackles for loss. Linebacker Ryan Connelly had both sacks for the Badgers, just his second and third sacks on the season. His three tackles for loss led the team. Butkus Award finalist T.J. Edwards chipped in with 2.5 as well. Wisconsin has three players who have 10 TFL this season (Dooley, Edwards, Connelly). Since 2009, only three Badgers teams have had that many with 10 TFL. Through the regular season, Wisconsin has allowed 12 points per game, which is second in the country, only behind Alabama’s 11.5. The rush defense has been exceptional as well, ranking first in the nation in rush yards allowed per game (80.5), rushing touchdowns allowed (4) and finished second in opponent’s rushing average (2.65). Of the four rushing touchdowns allowed this year, only two came in Big Ten play. The pass defense was tremendous as well.  The Badgers finished tops in the nation in opponent’s passer rating (94.18) and second in passing touchdowns allowed (8) but have not allowed a passing score in the past two games. It has been a tremendous defense this year, but will have a big test this weekend against Ohio State in Indianapolis.

Going into the season, the Badgers would be favored in every game, but most thought Wisconsin drop a game or two it shouldn’t. Most figured Bucky would be around a 10-2-type of team. Not many thought 12-0. The only national pundit I can think of who thought Wisconsin would be a College Football Playoff team was Fox Sports Radio’s Clay Travis. I know all Badgers fans are so excited about next week and playing for a spot in the Playoff, and rightly so, but let’s all take a step back and appreciate what this team has done. Even after losing one of the best linebackers in the country, Jack Cichy, before the season with a torn ACL. Even after losing their top two wide receivers during the season. A normal team would have imploded. Yes, the schedule has not been the most difficult. However, look at other teams. Clemson lost to Syracuse. Oklahoma lost to Iowa State. Ohio State was annihilated by Iowa. Miami lost to Pittsburgh. All those teams are average-to-below average. Wisconsin took care of business, no matter the opponent. It would be easy to overlook a below average team and be upset, but the Badgers were able to show up and dominate every week. In Wisconsin’s 12 games, 11 have been decided by multiple scores and it has not trailed in the fourth quarter at all. In fact, the Badgers have trailed for only 9:49 in the second half this season and in both instances, the offense scored in its first opportunity to retake the lead after being behind in the third quarter. It has been a dominating performance this year.....a lot of fun. Barring another 59-0 game again, Wisconsin will once again make an appearance in a New Year’s Six, whether it is in the Playoff or not. Not many people would have thought they’d be in this position at the start of the year. Enjoy it. The Badgers will take on Ohio State on Saturday at 7 p.m. CST with Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt on the call.

Wisconsin/Minnesota preview

Hey, everybody, IT’S AXE WEEK! The Wisconsin Badgers come into the game at 11-0, trying to finish their first undefeated regular season since 1912 when the Badgers went 7-0. In that season, Wisconsin outscored opponents 246-29, including four shutouts. However, the Badgers did start off playing powerhouse Lawrence College. Back to 2017, Wisconsin is 11-0 and 8-0 in conference, while Minnesota is going through a rough season under first-year coach P.J. Fleck. The Gophers are playing for a bowl berth, as they come in at 5-6 with a 2-6 Big Ten mark. With a win this week and next week against Ohio State, Wisconsin will clinch its first College Football Playoff berth. Bucky comes in having won 13 consecutive games against his rivals directly to the West, and came back from a 10-point halftime deficit last year to beat Minnesota 31-17 to finish a 10-2 regular season. The last time these teams met in Minneapolis was 2015 when Dare Ogunbowale ran for 155 yards and Taiwan Deal ran for 90 as the Badgers came out of Minnesota with a 31-21 victory. How about this for an odd stat? In all four meetings at TCF Bank Stadium, Minnesota has had a non-offensive touchdown. Maybe Athletic Director Barry Alvarez will come down and play the 1993 game as motivation. Wisconsin would go 10-1-1 with the only loss coming in Minneapolis. Despite outgaining Minnesota 605-385, the Badgers turned the ball over six times in a 28-21 loss to the Gophers for their only loss of the season. Without that, Wisconsin wins, or at least shares, the National Championship. Also, the winner of this game takes the series lead. Right now, the series is tied 59-59-8 and the Badgers have never led in this series. It’s going to be a big game at TCF Bank Stadium with more than just the axe at stake.

When Wisconsin runs...

Obviously, the run game revolves around the Doak Walker Award finalist, Jonathan Taylor. The freshman is third in the country in rush yards and the Badgers are ranked 21st in the country as a team in rush yards per game with 239.3. Taylor is coming off a nice game, rushing for 132 yards on 19 carries against a really good Michigan run defense. Minnesota, on the other hand, is ranked 62nd, giving up nearly 162 yards rushing per game. However, the Gophers have been shredded on the ground as of late. In two of the last three games, Minnesota has allowed at least 277 yards on the ground. In those two games, the Gophers have been outscored 72-10. Well, the Badgers have a better ground game than either of those two teams. Against Michigan, Minnesota was gashed. In the game, the Wolverines gained 371 yards rushing and averaged 10 yards per carry. They nearly had two players hit the 200-yard rushing mark, Karan Higdon had 200 yards and Chris Evans had 191 yards (sacks count against rushing, so that is why they “only" had 371). Unfortunately for Minnesota, it has to prepare for others in addition to Taylor. First of all, Bradrick Shaw has been running a bit better as of late.....and then, Goldy has to worry about the Badgers jet sweep. Freshman wide receiver Kendric Pryor has been a beast on the sweep. A week after a 25-yard touchdown run on that play against Iowa, he scored on a 32-yard sweep against Michigan. Wisconsin’s rushing attack is on a roll right now. I have a hard time seeing Minnesota slow the Bucky run game down. Taylor has rushed for more than 200 yards three times on the season, but hasn’t done so since the Purdue game Oct. 14. It would not surprise me to see him do that again. As a matter of fact, I will predict he gets 230 yards and a pair of scores in a big Wisconsin win.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Alex Hornibrook is what he is at this point: inconsistent. He made a terrible throw that was picked off by Michigan’s Devin Bush, which helped give Michigan the lead. But what does he do next? He throws three perfect passes, all on third-and-long on two consecutive touchdown drives to give Bucky a 21-10 lead. Michigan is ranked No. 1 in the country in pass defense, so it wasn’t that surprising that he had trouble throwing, especially with his top two wide receivers out. In order to beat a good team, the Wisconsin quarterback will have to make plays, and he did just that in the second half against Michigan. Fortunately, he should have an easier time against Minnesota’s defense. Yes, the Gophers pass defense is ranked 13th in pass yards allowed per game. but the pass efficiency is more middle of the pack, ranking 45th in the country and eighth in the Big Ten. Opposing quarterbacks have also completed 62 percent of their passes against this pass defense, which is 13th out of the 14 teams in the conference. So, yes, that 13th in the country ranking is deceiving. I mean, who would pass the ball when teams are having success running it....and why would you pass the ball quite a bit when you are ahead anyway? In three of the last four games, Minnesota didn’t lead for one second. I don’t expect too much pressure on Hornibrook, either, as the Gophers are ninth in the Big Ten in sacks (23) and the Badgers have allowed the third fewest in the Big Ten (17), just one behind Ohio State and Rutgers for the conference lead. I certainly don’t expect Hornibrook to air it out much, especially when he has a running back like Taylor behind him. However, I do think he will do enough to keep Minnesota’s defense off balance and open up a few running lanes for Jonathan Taylor, Shaw and Pryor. I expect Hornibrook to throw for about 150 yards and a touchdown. As long as the sophomore quarterback does not give the game to the Gophers, the Badgers should be in great shape.

Edge: Push

When Minnesota runs...

Junior Shannon Brooks is not on this week’s depth chart provided by the Gophers. He has missed four of the last five games. Fellow junior Rodney Smith is playing, and following a slow start in which he couldn’t even hit four yards per carry in three of his first four games, he has picked it up lately. In four of the last five games, he has hit five yards per carry, including a 134-yard performance in Minnesota’s dominating win over Nebraska. Senior Kobe McCrary does not get the number of carries Smith does, but he is effective as well. He has had 10 carries in each of the past two games and has gained 162 yards. Somehow, Smith and McCrary combined for 165 yards on 28 carries last game in Evanston.....and scored zero points. Quarterback Demry Croft is also a runner. He had a monster game against Nebraska, carrying the ball 10 times for 183 yards and three touchdowns. In the other five games he has received significant minutes in, Croft has failed to run for more than 31 yards, but he does have that ability. It’s like having another running back on the field for the Gophers. Cam Thomas of Illinois is a similar quarterback to the Minnesota sophomore and Wisconsin had a little trouble stopping him. Against Illinois, despite posing no threat through the air, Thomas ran 10 times for 78 yards in Wisconsin’s 24-10 win last month. Fortunately, though, for Wisconsin is that Croft is the only guy they will have to game plan against, so I feel they’ll be more than ready for the running ability of Croft. Minnesota will need to do all of its damage on the ground, as the Gophers have virtually no passing attack to speak of. After struggling a bit to stop the run through the middle portion of the schedule, Wisconsin has shut down the last two ground attacks when faced with a challenge. Against two hot ground attacks (especially Michigan’s), the Badgers stingy defense allowed just 83 yards on 63 carries, a yards per carry average of 1.26. The No. 1 ranked Wisconsin defense has not allowed 100 yards on the ground the last three weeks, and averaged giving up just 41 rush yards per game in those contests. It looks like this run defense is hitting its stride, and if the Gophers don’t rush for at least 150 yards, they have no chance.....and no team has rushed for that many against Bucky this year.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Minnesota passes...

I mentioned last paragraph that Minnesota virtually has another running back on the field in Croft. Well, unfortunately for the Gophers, he also throws like a running back. On the season, he is completing just 42.5 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Since becoming the full-time starter against Illinois, his numbers have somehow managed to get worse. In the five games he has started, he has completed just 37 percent of his passes with just one touchdown and six interceptions and has just 81.6 passing yards per game. That won’t get it done. Croft had a nice game against Michigan State in relief of senior Conor Rhoda and nearly led them back to victory, but he has proved he can’t perform when teams have game planned for him so far. Against the only pass defenses remotely comparable to Wisconsin (Michigan and Iowa), Croft went 14-of-41 (34 percent) for 213 yards with an interception. Unfortunately for him, he will likely be without do-everything wide receiver Tyler Johnson once again this week. The sophomore is Minnesota’s leading receiver this year and he broke his wrist in the 54-21 win over Nebraska two weeks ago. Johnson has 35 catches for 677 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. The rest of the Gophers team has 72 catches for 796 yards and two touchdowns. Freshman wide receiver Phillip Howard is second on the team in receiving yards......with 132. It will be tough for Minnesota to throw the ball even with Johnson, but it will virtually impossible to get any sort of passing attack going against this Wisconsin pass defense, which ranks sixth in pass yards allowed per game. Amazingly, the No. 6 ranking seems a little low. In pass efficiency defense, the Badgers are second in the nation, only trailing Alabama. Teams have completed less than 50 percent of their passes against this defense and have only averaged 5.5 yards per pass against it. The eight passing touchdowns allowed is tied for fifth in the country and tied for fewest in the Big Ten. The 15 interceptions is 11th nationally and second in the conference, only behind Iowa’s 16. Nick Nelson has 20 pass break-ups on the year, which is the most in a single season in school history, and Derrick Tindal is no slouch either. Wisconsin also leads the Big Ten in sacks. All signs point to Minnesota having a tough time trying to throw the ball. If Croft is forced to try to beat Wisconsin through the air, the Fighting P.J. Flecks have no shot.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Both teams have reliable field goal kickers. Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 11-of-13 on field goal attempts this year and has made his last five. Emmit Carpenter is 14-of-18 on his attempts this year and he also has made his previous five. Last year, the Green Bay native connected on 22-of-24 attempts in being named the Big Ten’s Bakken-Andersen Kicker of the Year. Minnesota’s punter Ryan Santoso is also a weapon, averaging 43.3 yards per punt, which is third in the conference. Anthony Lotti is a shade under 40 yards per punt, which is 10th in the conference. Smith is a dangerous return man for Minnesota on kick returns, averaging 24.7 yards per return and has already returned one for a score 100 yards against Nebraska. Fortunately for Wisconsin, Zach Hintze is a weapon, as he is 19th in the nation in touchback percentage (65.6 percent). Nick Nelson is dangerous as a punt returner for the Badgers. He returned a punt 50 yards for a score against Michigan, as well as a 19-yard return late in the game. Of punt returners in the conference with at least seven returns, Nelson ranks third in the Big Ten with an 8.8-yard average.

Edge: Push

Overview

I have a hard time seeing Minnesota put up much of a fight for a whole 60 minutes. Wisconsin is just better all around. The Gophers won’t be able to shut down the Badgers offense for the entire game and unless Wisconsin turns it over a bunch like in 1993, I don’t see the Minnesota offense doing much, especially with no passing game. I see Wisconsin in a defensive struggle to start, but like in most games, I think Wisconsin pulls away in the second half to improve to 12-0 and get one step closer to the College Football Playoff. The game will be televised on ABC at 2:30 on Saturday. Mark Jones and Rod Gilmore will be on the call.

Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 3

Michigan/Wisconsin review

It was a typical Wisconsin football game. It was low scoring and had plenty of punts, but in the end, the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers dominated the second half to knock off the Michigan Wolverines 24-10 at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday. The Badgers improve to a still perfect 11-0 and 8-0 in Big Ten play, while No. 24 Michigan falls to a record of 8-3 and 5-3 in conference play. The Wolverines still have not won a road game against a top 25 team since 2006. The Big Ten West champs are one win shy of going a perfect 12-0 in the regular season. Only 5-6 Minnesota stands in the way of 12-0. For as much flack as he has received, Alex Hornibrook made some great throws in the second half to lead Bucky to the big win. That is Hornibrook’s 17th consecutive win as a starter and has improved his overall record to 18-2. If he stays healthy and is a four-year starter, there is a great chance he breaks Joel Stave’s record for wins as a starting quarterback at Wisconsin (31). Also, in the Badgers last 20 November games, they have gone 18-2.....and one of those “losses” was the Jazz Peavy game in 2015 against Northwestern. This is the third win in the past four games against Michigan, and Wisconsin has now won its fourth consecutive game at Camp Randall against the Wolverines. I thought the last two games were two of the best games they’ve played all year. With Ohio State’s 52-14 win over Illinois in Columbus this past Saturday, the Big Ten Championship game is set: Wisconsin vs. Ohio State. If the Badgers win in Minneapolis this upcoming Saturday and then against the Buckeyes, Bucky will be Playoff bound.

There were a number of positives from this game, but I will start with the much-maligned Hornibrook. It was really disappointing to see him throw his 13th interception on the season and 12th in conference play. He now has 10 touchdowns in conference play in addition to his 12 picks. However, like he has done all season, Hornibrook bounced back nicely. The sophomore did not have the most gaudy stats, completing just nine of 19 passes for 143 yards with a touchdown and an interception, but he made big time throws at big time moments in the game. This was one of his lowest efficiency games of the year due to his 47 percent completion percentage and numerous throw aways. Michigan is No. 1 in the country in pass defense, so there were few open windows to throw. Through the first three and a half quarters, Wisconsin’s offense could do nothing. Hornibrook looked bad and Jonathan Taylor had nowhere to run. That all changed on two consecutive touchdown drives. With the Badgers facing a 3rd-and-13 at their own 31, down 10-7, Hornibrook threw a pretty pass to A.J. Taylor down the left sideline for a 51-yard pass down to the Michigan 18. Three plays later, Wisconsin faced a 3rd-and-16 at the 24. Enter Hornibrook once again. With Michigan’s fierce pass rush, it would have been easy for Paul Chryst to run the ball and play for the field goal and the tie. However, he went for the lead, and Hornibrook stepped up in pocket and delivered and absolute strike over the middle to A.J. Taylor for the score. That is what is so frustrating about him. He can make some of the worst decisions you’ll see a quarterback make, but then he’ll make throws like those two to A.J. Taylor which make you say “wow.” His next step in his maturation process will be to become more consistent. He also obviously needs to improve his decision making. Hornibrook has thrown at least one interception in every conference game and that just can’t happen. Wisconsin will have plenty of weapons at his disposal. One thing about the Badgers signal caller is that he has a short memory. He seemingly plays well following interceptions. I have criticized Hornibrook in the past, as he quite often lands on the disappointing parts in game reviews, But he absolutely deserves credit when it’s due. His throws to A.J. Taylor opened up everything against Michigan. Following those passes, Jonathan Taylor and Kendric Pryor found room on the ground and the Badgers was able to pull away. I would give him the MVP of this game.

Even though it was rough going for most of the day, the running game kept coming and eventually wore down the Michigan defense. I know Taylor’s 52-yard run and Pryor’s 32-yard touchdown run inflated the stats a bit, but the Badgers rushed for 182 yards and 4.6 yards per carry. The 182 rushing yards gained by Wisconsin are the second most allowed by Michigan this year, only behind Penn State’s 224. Taylor continued his big freshman campaign, rushing for 132 yards on 19 carries. His 132 yards are the most allowed by Michigan opponent all year and he is only the second Wolverines opponent to reach the century mark in rushing this season. For his efforts, Taylor won his seventh Big Ten Freshman of the Week award, tying him with Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett for the most all-time. Pryor has also been a weapon on the jet sweep. The last few years, the Badgers have dominated opponents with that play. Chryst has tried a few different players on the jet sweep throughout the year, and has finally found success. In all of the last three games, Wisconsin has scored using that play. Against Indiana, it was Jonathan Taylor and in the last two, it has been freshman wide receiver Kendric Pryor. The latter has carried the ball four times this season......and two of them have gone for six. In the last game against Michigan, Pryor had carried the ball twice for six yards. But after Hornibrook and Jonathan Taylor loosened up the defense, Pryor found space and went untouched 32 yards to put Bucky in front 21-10. If that play keeps working like it has in the previous three games, it just makes Wisconsin’s running game that much more potent.

I will add more about the defense in the next paragraph, but I will single out Nick Nelson for not only what he did on defense, but obviously the impact he had on special teams in the win. With Wisconsin getting nothing done on offense in the first quarter, it was Nelson who put the Badgers on the board first. In the ultimate “No, no, YES!!!!” play, the junior cornerback let a short punt by Michigan’s Brad Robbins bounce at the Wolverines 48 and then stop at midfield. With all the Michigan coverage players slowing down because they thought Nelson would let them down it, the Wisconsin return man picked it up and ran along the sideline, where he would break a few tackles and cut to his left and race in for the punt return touchdown. Those would be the only points of the first half put up by Wisconsin. Also, with that punt return touchdown, he became the 18th Badgers player to record a touchdown this season, which is the most in modern school history. He also added a 19-yard punt return late in the game to set up the Badgers with good field position, which set up a field goal to put them up by 14. On defense, it was another day at the office. Nelson became the program’s single-season record holder for pass break-ups in a season with 20. He joins Iowa’s Josh Jackson as the only players in the Power 5 to have that many on the season. Nelson has a decision to make on the NFL. Selfishly, as a Badgers fan, I hope he sticks around next season. He and Dontye Carriere-Williams could be another very good cornerback duo in 2018.

Finally, the defense as a whole was outstanding once again. I know, I sound like a broken record. In the previous three games before Wisconsin, Michigan had rushed for 288 yards per game and had rushed for more than 300 twice. Against the Badgers run defense, the Wolverines ran the ball 37 times for a season-low 57 yards. The top two Michigan running backs, Chris Evans and Karan Higdon, gained just 45 yards on 18 carries for just an average of 2.5 yards per carry. The 10 points scored by Michigan are tied for the fewest points scored in the Jim Harbaugh era. Outside of Nelson, a few other Badgers dominated on the defensive side of the ball. First of all, I will include T.J. Edwards. The Butkus Award (given to the nation’s top linebacker) finalist and fellow inside linebacker Ryan Connelly were all over the field against the Wolverines. In the game, the duo combined for 21 tackles, four tackles for loss, a sack and a pass breakup.  Nine of Connelly's 10 stops prevented gains of two yards or more, while Edwards did that eight times. Each made huge plays in the second half to keep Michigan at arm’s length, while waiting for the offense to come alive. After receiving nice field position to start the second half, the Wolverines would drive to the Badgers 38, but Edwards would sack Brandon Peters on third down to force a punt. Then, two possessions later, Wisconsin’s defense was put on the field following the Hornibrook interception. After a first down run by Donovan Peoples-Jones on first down, Michigan had a first down at the 17. Enter Connelly, who made a big stop of Kareem Walker in the backfield for a loss of three. That stop put Michigan behind the chains and was held to a field goal. The Badgers offense would then come alive to pull out the win. The defense has come through big all year and will have its first huge test in Indianapolis on Dec. 2.

To be honest, there were not many glaring negatives from this game. The offense was not good in the first half, only gaining 99 total yards. Amazingly, despite Wisconsin not looking good in the first half, that was still 33 more yards than Iowa gained all game against Bucky the previous week. In the first half, the Badgers only managed three first downs and failed to even march into Michigan territory. Nelson’s punt return was the only real big play of the first half for Bucky. The Wolverines had 169 yards in the first half in controlling that half. Fortunately for Wisconsin, it was tied at 7 at the break and then they dominated the second half. As good as the secondary is, the Badgers did give up two plays of at least 35 yards in that half, and then a 22-yard pass on Michigan’s first play of the second half. After that, the Badgers defense shut the Wolverines offense down the rest of the game. Unless Wisconsin plays Alabama in the College Football Playoff, that defense is the best it will play all year. The offense should have a much better time of it this upcoming game against Minnesota.

Seemingly, this was the last hurdle in terms of going undefeated. It was a solid performance against a good Michigan team. Everyone knew it was going to be a slugfest since these are two of the top five defenses in the country. After being outgained 169-99 in the first half, Wisconsin outgained Michigan in the second half 226-65 in the second half and held them to just one third down conversion. People were waiting for the Badgers to play somebody, and have dominated both Iowa and Michigan in the second half to pull away for multiple score wins. Now Bucky will try to go undefeated for a regular season for the first time since 1912, as Wisconsin plays in Minneapolis against the Gophers, trying to win Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the 14th consecutive season. The game is at 2:30 CST and will be televised on ABC.

An Ode to the Seniors

We only have one more home game this season, and with that, another crop of players will play their final game at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday. On offense, Wisconsin will lose just two senior starters, fullback Austin Ramesh and tight end Troy Fumagalli. Wide receiver Jazz Peavy is a senior, but he has not played since Nebraska and only has five catches on the season. He officially is no longer with the team, which is a bummer since he deserves to be a part of the Senior Day ceremonies since he has been a big part of the program. There is a chance that both tackles could leave as well, but I’ll talk about just the seniors. There are more seniors on defense, including Derrick Tindal and Leon Jacobs. The jury is still out on whether Nick Nelson will go pro or not. I will talk about some of my favorite moments involving these seniors. Let’s take a trip down memory lane...

I’ll talk about the offensive seniors first. I’ll start out with a player who will not be playing. Like I said above, Peavy is officially no longer a part of the team, but he has been a big part of the program, so I will include him here. In 2015, the then-sophomore became a name in college football due to catching a game-winning touchdown, but having it ruled incomplete for some reason. That “incompletion” cost the Badgers the victory and I think it was the Dan Patrick Show’s Paul Pabst who called it one of the worst calls he had ever seen. But he bounced back in a big way in 2016. Following the graduation of Alex Erickson, Peavy was thrust into a starting spot and he delivered. He was a big time receiver in addition to making plays on the ground. In four of the first six games in 2016, he had at least 65 yards receiving. After having that crushing defeat against Northwestern the previous year, he bounced back in a big way last season against the Windy City Kitties. With Wisconsin leading 3-0 midway through the second quarter, Peavy took a jet sweep 46 yards to the house en route to a Wisconsin 21-7 win. I also loved watching his big jet sweeps against Minnesota and Western Michigan to help the Badgers get big wins. I wished his senior season would have turned out a bit differently, but I hope he gets better.

Now, Fumagalli is one of the best tight ends in college football. His season started out really well, having 13 catches for 197 yards and two touchdowns the first two games. Since, though, he only has one game in which he has more than 40 yards receiving and no touchdowns in conference play. However, he is still the top target for Hornibrook that the defense has to account for. I remember his coming out party against LSU. I was at that game, and was awesome to see him truck some poor Tigers defender. The Badgers needed every bit of his 100 yards against LSU and had a big 20-yard catch to move Wisconsin into LSU territory on the final field goal drive to set the Badgers up to take the lead. Even with that, his best performance was in the Cotton Bowl against Western Michigan. He had six catches against the Broncos and every single one was a monster catch. Five of his six catches went for either a first down or a touchdown and four came on third down. Some of his catches were fantastic, and he sealed the game with a 26-yard catch on third down late in the game. I have faith in Kyle Penniston, but Fumagalli will be tough to replace.

Finally, Austin Ramesh has had a really nice year. Every week, it seems like Ramesh blows somebody up on a block. He has done well being the lead blocker for Jonathan Taylor, who has 1,525 yards and 12 touchdowns. Ramesh also is very good at running on short yardage plays. He has two touchdowns this year and five in his career. My favorite score was his touchdown against Ohio State when nobody expected the fullback to get the ball and he plowed his way into the end zone to give Bucky a late lead. Taylor will miss him, and us fans will miss seeing him decleat poor defenders who are in his way.

On defense, there are six seniors starter currently, and I will include Jack Cichy as well. I will start out with three senior defensive ends, Chikwe Obasih, Connor Sheehy and Alec James. First off, it is nice to see Obasih back on the field. He was hurt week one against Utah State and missed the next eight games before making one tackle in the win over Iowa. My favorite Obasih moment was his sack against the Gophers last year. After Wisconsin tied the game at 17, Obasih sacked Mitch Leidner on third down to force a punt in Bucky’s 31-17 victory over Minnesota. Next, Alec James has had a fantastic year. After having a total of 3.5 sacks in his first three years combined, James has exploded for 5.5 this year, which is great for a 3-4 defensive end. He also has had the best sack celebration I have seen in some time. After a sack at Indiana, he licked his fingers and rubbed his stomach. Thanksgiving is not for another few weeks, but this celebration was still great. Finally, Sheehy had a breakout season last year and has carried it over to this year. He has 1.5 sacks this year and has done well defending the run, like always.

Now, to the linebackers. Like last year, both starting outside linebackers will be gone the following year. People figured Leon Jacobs and Garret Dooley would be the starters, but no one knew how effective they would be. Gone were NFL Draft picks Vince Biegel and T.J. Watt, who combined for 15.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss last season, so Jacobs and Dooley had big shoes to fill. First off, Jacobs played his 55th career game last Saturday, which put him at the top of the all-time games played list for the Badgers. It was always easy to see Jacobs' talent for Wisconsin, but he always had to sit behind great linebackers like Watt, Biegel and Joe Schobert. He even transitioned to fullback in 2016. As a senior, he was moved back to linebacker and has made the most of his opportunity. In 10 games, he has 3.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss. He also made one of the bigger plays of the season in an October matchup with Purdue. With the Boilermakers driving and facing 2nd-and-Goal from the Badgers 8 with a little more than eight minutes remaining, Jacobs picked off Elijah Sindelar and sealed the win for Bucky. His only other pick in college was rather big as well. His interception and return of a Mitch Leidner pass last year against Minnesota helped Wisconsin put the game away late. I think he could have a chance at a long career in the NFL. His size, strength and speed are huge assets that teams look for in a linebacker. After registering 3.5 sacks last year as a reserve, Dooley has sacked opposing quarterbacks five times so far in 2017, including three in a win over Northwestern in late September. Dooley and Jacobs have teamed up for a combined 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss, which helped make up for the losses of Watt and Biegel. They still have four games left to pad their stats and help the Badgers potentially make the College Football Playoff.

Even though he is out for the year, I have to mention a big member of this defense, Jack Cichy. It is too bad he tore his ACL prior to the season because he would have made an already great defense that much better. Cichy has had a fantastic career with the Badgers, but only one moment sticks out for me. It is where he earned the moniker ‘Three Sack Jack.’ Even though he had a solid sophomore season, the Holiday Bowl would be his coming out party. Cichy would have to sit out the first half of the bowl game against Southern California due to a targeting penalty he had against Minnesota in the regular season finale. That did not bother the former walk-on, as he went on to earn Holiday Bowl Defensive MVP. With Wisconsin clinging to a 20-14 lead and USC starting with great field position at midfield, Cichy took over the series. Trojans quarterback Cody Kessler dropped back to pass all three plays......and he would be sacked by Cichy on all three. Cichy single-handedly moved Southern Cal all the way back near its own 20. That would not be all for him on the night, either. With the Badgers leading 23-21 and Kessler trying to move USC down the field for a winning field goal, Cichy pressured the Trojans quarterback, forcing him to throw a poor pass that was intercepted by Sojourn Shelton. The play helped seal Wisconsin’s two-point win in the Holiday Bowl. He carried that into his junior season with that Badgers, where he was perhaps the best player on the defense the first seven weeks. Yes, even better than Watt. In his seven games, he led the team in tackles. Against Ohio State, he was the best player on the field. Cichy registered career-highs with 15 tackles and 3.5 tackles for less to go along with a sack and a forced fumble. Unfortunately, he would suffer a torn pectoral muscle the following week in Iowa City that would force him to miss the final seven games of the season. He has had a string of bad luck with injuries, but he’s a fighter and I have confidence he’ll help an NFL team in the near future.

Finally, I will mention the two senior starting defensive backs. There is a possibility Nick Nelson leaves for the NFL, but I will only talk about the seniors for this, cornerback Derrick Tindal and safety Natrell Jamerson. Tindal has been a part of two of the best cornerback duos in program history the past few years with Shelton last season and Nelson this year. He has four career interceptions, and I was fortunate to see one in person, as he picked off a Brandon Harris pass right before halftime to preserve a 6-0 lead over LSU at the break. He also had a long return off an interception in last year’s meeting with Michigan, which set up a touchdown reception by Dare Ogunbowale. Tindal had 10 passes defensed last year and has six more this year, helping the Badgers to be one of the best pass defenses in the county. Also helping that category is Jamerson, a former cornerback who replaced Leo Musso upon his graduation. He has taken that job and ran with it. Jamerson has been a sure tackler in the back end of the defense and has even added a pair of interceptions, including a pick six against Northwestern. Along with D’Cota Dixon, he has formed a terrific safety duo and these four are responsible (along with the pass rush) for making it a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks to throw the ball, ranking No. 1 in the country in passing efficiency.

I will miss this group of seniors. They have done quite a bit to keep the train rolling from Gary Andersen to Paul Chryst and in the case of the defenders, they have had three defensive coordinators in three years. No matter who the coaches have been, this program has kept on winning. Since 2014, this year’s class (yes, I know some have been here five years) has gone 42-9 and has made the Big Ten Championship game twice and won all three bowl games it has appeared in. It was fun to watch this group grow right before our eyes and it will be exciting to watch some of them play in the NFL. As I end this post, I will leave you with two words: Beat Michigan!

Michigan/Wisconsin preview

Here we are, 10 games into the season and the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers have yet to suffer a defeat. After clinching a trip to Indianapolis, Wisconsin comes in to a big test with the Michigan Wolverines, which come in at 8-2. Following two consecutive losses to Michigan State and Penn State, Michigan has won three consecutive games by an average of 23 points per game. Granted, none of those teams are anywhere near as good as Wisconsin is. These teams have only met once since the start of the 2011 season, and that was Michigan’s 14-7 last season at ‘The Big House.’ They haven’t met at Camp Randall Stadium since 2009 when Wisconsin scored the final 17 points to pull away with a 45-24 victory. The Badgers have won three consecutive games in Madison in this series with Michigan’s last victory coming in 2001. Unlike the Iowa series, the home team has dominated in recent times, winning seven of the last eight. Michigan has dominated the all-time series between the two, going 50-14-1, but Wisconsin has won two out of the last three and four of the last seven. College Gameday will be in the house for this 11 am CST kick on FOX. This will likely be a defensive struggle, so if you love offense, this isn’t the game you should watch. It is Senior Day, so many Badgers will be playing their final home game ever, such as Troy Fumagalli, Leon Jacobs and Derrick Tindal. It should be a great game, as Wisconsin tries to improve to 11-0 and keep itself in the conversation for the College Football Playoff.

When Wisconsin runs...

Strength vs. strength. This will be a fun matchup. Freshman running back Jonathan Taylor comes in third in the country in rushing with 1,525 yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. He is coming off a nice game against Iowa, rushing for 157 yards en route to earning his sixth Big Ten Freshman of the Week award. As a team, Wisconsin is 18th in the country and second in the conference in rushing at 245 yards per game. But Bucky’s offensive line faces its toughest challenge of the season, as Michigan’s defensive line is one of the best in the country, led by star defensive tackle Maurice Hurst. The Wolverines come in at 10th in the country in rush defense and third in the Big Ten, only allowing 110.3 rush yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Not only is the starting defensive line excellent, but they have solid depth as well. On the flip side, though, Michigan has not played a rushing attack as good as Wisconsin’s. That includes Saquon Barkley and Penn State. Barkley had a long touchdown run, but only had 14 carries for 39 yards outside of that. What would worry me about Wisconsin is that teams that tend to hurt Michigan are teams with running quarterbacks. Penn State’s Trace McSorley killed Michigan on the ground with 76 yards. Alex Hornibrook, on the other hand, is a statue in the pocket and has a season-long run of one yard. He makes Joel Stave look like Michael Vick in that regard. It will be exciting to see this matchup. Taylor has a chance to make a statement. With a big game and a Wisconsin win, I think Taylor could cement himself in the Heisman discussion and maybe even book a trip to New York.

Edge: Push

When Wisconsin is passing...

Alex Hornibrook once again struggled against Iowa, throwing three interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns. As my brother said after the Iowa game, Wisconsin would be Alabama if it had a halfway decent quarterback. That is not far off, as I think the Badgers have a top four or five team easily if you were to take out the quarterback. Hornibrook just cannot keep making poor decisions if he wants to lead the Badgers to the College Football Playoff. The sophomore quarterback has thrown at least one interception in all seven conference games and eight of Wisconsin’s 10 games this season. After starting out hot with eight touchdowns and one pick in non-conference play, he just has nine touchdowns compared to 11 picks in the Big Ten. He actually had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in conference play last season, throwing six touchdowns to six interceptions. Hornibrook will obviously need to have a better performance than he had last season against Michigan, when he went just 9-of-25 for 88 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. He will once again be without his top two wide receivers, Jazz Peavy and Quintez Cephus. Danny Davis, A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor have stepped up and will need to step up once again against the Wolverines. However, simply put, Michigan is the top pass defense in the country. The Wolverines are No. 1 in opponents passing yards per game, No. 3 in opponents quarterback rating, No. 2 in completion percentage and No. 4 in yards per attempt. This is a tall order for Hornibrook and the Wisconsin passing attack. However, as good as Michigan’s pass defense is, the defense only has picked off eight passes this season, which is 10th in the Big Ten. I mentioned the intriguing matchup in the trenches with Wisconsin’s rush offense against Michigan’s rush defense above. Well, the lines also are intriguing when the Badgers pass the ball. Wisconsin has allowed just 14 sacks on the season, which is second in the conference, while Michigan has sacked opposing quarterbacks 33 times, which is fifth in the country and second in the conference (only to Wisconsin). When Hornibrook passes, he will need the pocket to be clean due to him lacking mobility. Paul Chryst will need to keep Michigan guessing with his play calling and maybe throwing with Hornibrook on early downs to try to find some sort of passing attack.

Edge: Michigan

When Michigan runs...

Michigan does not use just one running back, as three backs for the team have at least 500 yards rushing, led by junior Karan Higdon. The Wolverines come in 30th at rushing with 207.8 yards per game, but in the last three since sophomore Brandon Peters has been the quarterback, Michigan has ran the ball for an average of 288 yards per game. Not surprisingly, this offense that struggled for much of the year has averaged 34 points per game in those three weeks. Even including the sacks, the Wolverines averaged 10 yards per carry against Minnesota. Higdon has rushed for at least 150 yards in three of his last five games, including 200 in two of those. In the last three games, he has averaged 136 yards rushing per game and has an incredible 9.3 yards per carry. However, Higdon missed the second half of this past Saturday's game against Maryland. The team is hopeful he'll be ready for Wisconsin. Sophomore Chris Evans had struggled his first eight games of the season, rushing for less than 300 yards and just 3.9 yards per carry. However, in his last two games, he has averaged 135.5 yards per game and has averaged 9.7 yards per carry. Four of his six touchdowns have come in those last two games as well. Michigan’s ground attack is on a roll right now and Wisconsin’s run defense will have its hands full. For as good as Michigan’s rushing attack has been the past few games, the Badgers run defense is coming off its best showing of the season. Iowa is solid at rushing the ball behind Akrum Wadley, but the Wisconsin run defense shut him and Iowa down. In 26 carries for the Hawkeyes, they rushed for just 25 yards. Wadley was held to just eight carries for 23 yards and fellow running back James Butler only rushed for 30 yards on eight carries. Even without the sacks, Iowa rushed for just 69 yards on 20 carries. With that effort, Bucky’s run defense vaulted to the top of the country in that category, allowing just 81.5 yards per game. The Badgers have also allowed only three rushing touchdowns on the year, which also leads the country. Of those three, only one has come in Big Ten play and that one was a touchdown by Kendrick Foster in the final minute of Wisconsin’s win over Illinois. This is another strength vs. strength matchup and who wins up front will win the game.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Michigan passes...

After starting the season as the starter, Wilton Speight got hurt against Purdue in late September and has not played since. He is just now practicing again, but will not play on Saturday. Following the Speight injury, Michigan turned to John O’Korn. After struggling mightily, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions in five games, O’Korn was benched in favor of Peters. The sophomore does not have the most gaudy statistics, but he has stabilized the position. In three games since becoming the starter, he has thrown for an average of just 108 yards per game, but has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions. The running game has also helped the young quarterback immensely. Much like when Wisconsin has the ball, if the Badgers slow down the Wolverines ground game, it will be tough for Michigan to walk out of Camp Randall a winner. I mentioned during the Wisconsin passing portion of the article that Michigan’s pass defense is the best in the country. Well, if Michigan is the best in the nation, Wisconsin is not far behind. After holding Iowa’s Nate Stanley to just 41 yards passing, Wisconsin’s pass defense rose up to No. 7 in opponents passing yards per game. It does not stop there, though. Wisconsin leads the country in pass efficiency at 94.5, No. 7 with 15 interceptions, No. 2 in yards per attempt and No. 5 in completion percentage. Michigan and Wisconsin are 1-2 in virtually every single pass defense ranking in the Big Ten. One interesting statistic is sacks when Michigan passes. Wisconsin enters this game leading the Big Ten and tied for third in the country with 35 sacks, while Michigan comes into this game at No. 13 in the conference in allowing sacks, having allowed 27 on the season. Only Illinois has allowed more sacks in the conference. Wisconsin will need to pressure Peters into making a few mistakes and give the Badgers a short field.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

In kicking, I will give Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone the edge. The junior kicker has made his last four attempts, while Michigan’s Quinn Nordin has gone in the opposite direction. After starting out extremely well, making 14 of his first 16, Nordin has missed his last three attempts. With Nordin getting plenty of opportunities (most in the Big Ten), he needs to figure it out quickly. The punters are pretty even, but Donovan Peoples-Jones has returned a punt for a touchdown and averages 8.5 yards per return. As good as Peoples-Jones is as a punt returner, Michigan’s kick returning is less than stellar, ranking 100th in the country. Wisconsin might have a slight edge, but overall, it is pretty even.

Edge: Push

Overview

This will be a defensive struggle. The teams are mirror images of one another in many ways. The biggest factor in this game will be turnovers. Wisconsin is +3 as it has forced 22 this season, which is tied for tops in the conference. However, the Badgers have given it away 19 times, which is second most in the Big Ten. Michigan comes in at -1 in turnover margin, so if Wisconsin can give its offense a short field, Bucky will be in great shape. Hornibrook needs to take care of the ball this week. I challenge him to not turn the ball over once. The Badgers can’t afford the type of mistakes he has made during conference play this weekend. The winner on third down will play a big role in the outcome as well. Wisconsin is first in the Big Ten in third down percentage, while Michigan is tops in allowing third down conversions. The Wolverines are one of the worst teams in converting third downs (33.1%, 12th in the conference), while Wisconsin is No. 2 in the conference in allowing third down conversions (29.3%). It will be a defensive battle, but I think Taylor makes a few plays on the ground and the Badgers force a few interceptions, giving their offense a short field and Wisconsin comes out on top.

Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 13