In the last meeting between these two teams, Ohio State came back from a 16-6 halftime deficit last year to win 30-23 in overtime at Camp Randall Stadium. J.T. Barrett won the game for Ohio State, completing 17-of-29 for 226 yards with a touchdown and an interception, as well as running for 92 yards and two more scores. Jack Cichy, who unfortunately will not be playing this year, had a career game in last year’s meeting, recording 15 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack. For his efforts, he was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week. Plenty of the players are the same, but there are many new faces as well. It should be a great battle for a fight to (possibly) go to the College Football Playoff.
When Wisconsin runs...
Heisman candidate Jonathan Taylor has had a tremendous year, rushing for 1,806 yards and 13 touchdowns, which ranks third in the country. In the 12 games for Wisconsin, Taylor has rushed for at least 100 yards in nine of them, and in two of the three he didn’t reach the century mark was when he did not start and received only nine carries (Utah State) and when he was injured in the first half (Illinois). He also averages seven yards per carry on the season and has reached at least five yards per carry in all but one game. As a team, the Badgers rank 17th, averaging just over 243 yards on the ground per. Ohio State comes in at No. 13 in rush yards allowed per game, the second best run defense Wisconsin has faced this year in rush yards allowed per game. However, the 3.1 yards per carry allowed by the Buckeyes is the best Bucky has faced this season. After being gashed by Iowa to the tune of 243 yards in the Hawkeyes 55-24 beatdown earlier this month, Ohio State has regained focus and allowed just an average 84.3 yards per game since and is allowing just 2.6 yards per carry. Illinois’ Dre Brown had the best day, rushing for 76 yards against this fierce Buckeyes front. Taylor, on the other hand, has only rushed for 76 or fewer yards once this season, and that was against Illinois when he was injured in the first half. With Ohio State preparing to stop the run, Paul Chryst will have to utilize play action on early downs to try to move the ball against this stout front four and to loosen up the defense in order to find running room for Taylor. In the last two games, the star freshman has been unable to move the ball in the first half before Alex Hornibrook started beating teams through the air and forcing Michigan and Minnesota to respect the pass. It will be a chess match between Chryst and Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano. I look forward to seeing it.
Edge: Push
When Wisconsin passes...
I mentioned in the last paragraph that Chryst will have to use Hornibrook on early downs to set up the run. Fortunately, for him and Wisconsin, the sophomore quarterback is playing his best ball of the season right now, considering his opponents. After throwing an interception in the third quarter against Michigan, Hornibrook has caught fire, going 19-of-28 (68 percent) for 250 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Wolverines have one of the best pass defenses in the country, while Minnesota’s is decent. When passing the ball, Hornibrook will need to look at Mackey Award finalist Troy Fumagalli. The big tight end has not been as much of a focal point in the passing game as I thought he would be going into the year, but he still caught 39 passes and four scores, which is a career high. He has not had more than three catches and 40 yards since the Maryland game in October. Still, I expect him to be a big part of the game plan on Saturday, especially against a team that was dominated by Iowa’s tight ends. Iowa tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant combined for nine catches for 125 yards and four touchdowns against the Buckeyes. Maybe Kyle Penniston will be a part of the game plan as well. In addition to being a really good run defense, the Buckeyes are a good pass defense as well. In pass yards allowed per game, Ohio State was 14th and 24th in opponents passing efficiency. The Buckeyes have given up 16 touchdown passes on the year and have intercepted 10 passes, both middle of the pack in the country. It is weird to see them not near the top of the country in interceptions, but that will happen when they had to replace three first round draft picks from last year’s great secondary. Wisconsin will need to throw it early, like I stated earlier, to loosen up the Buckeyes front and keep them guessing. What the Badgers cannot have happen is for them to consistently face third-and-longs because OSU has perhaps the best defensive line in the nation, led by Joey’s little brother, Nick Bosa. Sam Hubbard and Tyquan Lewis also wreak havoc for opposing quarterbacks. Overall, Ohio State is fifth in the Big Ten in sacks with 34, but also have 95 tackles for loss, which ranks 10th in the country. Nineteen players have at least two tackles for loss, led by Bosa with 12.5. This will be a major test for Wisconsin’s offensive line, which leads the Big Ten in sacks allowed, having given up just 17 all year. If the Badgers are to win, Hornibrook and Fumagalli will need to come up huge. The tight end needs at least seven catches on Saturday. That is my challenge to Hornibrook and Fumagalli.
Edge: Ohio State
When Ohio State runs...
Like Wisconsin, Ohio State is a running team. Unlike Wisconsin, though, Ohio State uses its quarterback, J.T. Barrett, almost as much as it runs with its running backs. I mentioned how big Barrett was in last year’s game, when the Buckeyes quarterback rushed 21 times for 92 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His second touchdown run came on a 3rd-and-6 from the Badgers 8 when he eluded the rush and found room on the right to scamper in to give Ohio State a 20-16 advantage early in the fourth. The Wisconsin defense will have to account for Barrett’s legs first, but he has thrown for more than 2,700 yards and 33 scores this year. Ohio State’s quarterback has also racked up nearly 700 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. He is a true dual threat quarterback, but most games he uses his legs to set up his arm. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, Ohio State also a terrific freshman running back, J.K. Dobbins. OSU’s fabulous freshman does not have the carries that Taylor has, but he still has 1,190 yards and seven touchdowns, not to mention has a yards per carry average (7.3) that is actually better than Taylor’s. Dobbins only has carried the ball more than 15 times in a game twice this season, but he has made the most of his opportunities. If you want to know how much talent the Buckeyes have at running back, consider the fact that 2016 Big Ten Freshman of the Year Mike Weber is now a backup. Weber ran for 1,096 yards and nine touchdowns in 2016 and has run for just 602 yards in 2017, but did score 10 touchdowns. Even though he does not get as many carries this season, he is still incredibly dangerous when he does get it. Weber has reached the century mark in rushing in two of the last three games. It will be a tough task for Wisconsin’s No. 1 ranked rush defense, but I think it will be up to the challenge. In every single category in rush defense, the Badgers are ranked in the top two nationally. Rush yards allowed per game? First, by a wide margin (80.5). Rushing touchdowns allowed? First (4). Yards per carry? Second (2.6). As a matter of fact, the Badgers are the only team in the country to have not allowed 1,000 yards on the ground (966). The longest rush the defense has allowed all year is only 28 yards. So, yeah, this unit is good. The linebackers are great at flowing to the football, led by Butkus Award finalist T.J. Edwards. Iowa’s Akrum Wadley had 118 yards on 20 carries against Ohio State a few weeks ago......the same Wadley who had eight carries for a season-low 23 yards against Wisconsin the following week. It will be the most intriguing matchup to watch on Saturday.
Edge: Push
When Ohio State passes...
Let me say this: I know Barrett was hurt against Michigan, but there is no way he does not play. He has yet to play in a Big Ten Championship game since Ohio State has not played in it since 2014 and Barrett missed the game due to injury and Barrett’s Buckeyes have a shot at the College Football Playoff. He’s a tough dude and would play in a wheelchair if he had to. I wonder how it will affect his mobility since I doubt he will be at full strength. Barrett is having a nice season with more than 2,700 yards and has thrown 33 touchdowns and has just thrown just seven interceptions. This has been a stellar senior campaign for Barrett, easily his best since his freshman season. Eleven players have caught a touchdown pass for Ohio State, led by Johnnie Dixon’s eight. Dixon has eight touchdown catches and has only caught 17 passes all year. Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill each have 519 yards receiving and have combined for 88 receptions and five touchdowns. Nine players have at least 17 catches and eight have at least 200 yards receiving, so Barrett spreads the ball around. In addition to having a great run defense, Wisconsin’s pass defense is also really good. The Badgers have as good of a cornerback duo as the Buckeyes have faced all year. In pass yards per game, Wisconsin is second in the country, No. 4 in completion percentage and is No. 1 in pass efficiency. The Badgers have picked off 15 passes, which is tied for second in the conference. However, they have not intercepted a pass in either of the last two games. Also, Wisconsin has sacked opposing quarterbacks 39 times in the 12 games, which is tied for the most in the conference. However, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the conference in allowing sacks, only two behind Wisconsin in that category (19). I do believe the Badgers are better equipped to handle deep receiving cores than they were last year, as Penn State dominated against Wisconsin’s Nos. three and four cornerbacks. Dontye Carriere-Williams has had a nice season as the nickel cornerback for the Badgers behind starters Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal. Nelson leads the country in pass break-ups with 20, and does not have an interception yet this year, but I do think one is coming soon. One of the keys will be getting a pass rush on Barrett, and it will be interesting to see if they are successful in doing that.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
This will be a tough matchup for Wisconsin, as Ohio State has one of the best special teams units in the country. Both kickers are incredibly accurate, as Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 12-of-14 on the year and Ohio State’s Sean Nuernberger is 14-of-17. However, neither kicker as been challenged all that much, combining to attempt only five field goals past 40 yards. Gaglianone is 2-of-2 in that regard, with a long of 52, while Nuernberger is just 1-of-3 from 40 and beyond with a long of 43. The Buckeyes have a big edge in punting, as Drue Chrisman is second in punting average in the conference with 20 of his 39 punts being downed inside the opponents 20. In addition to being a good wide receiver, Campbell averages 36.6 yards on kickoff returns. Wisconsin needs Zach Hintze to keep the ball from getting in the hands of Campbell. Hintze has been a touchback machine and the game will be played indoors, so I would assume Campbell will have limited opportunities to touch the ball in the return game. Nelson is a solid punt returner for the Badgers, having an average of nine yards per punt return, including returning a punt return 50 yards for a score against Michigan two weeks ago.
Edge: Ohio State
Overview
This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Badgers. One win and they’re in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State is their nemesis, having lost five consecutive games against the Buckeyes, with four of the five coming by one score. It will be a fun atmosphere at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday. I think Wisconsin quietly feels it is disrespected, as it comes in at 12-0 and is yet a 6.5-point underdog to Ohio State. The West needs a strong showing, as the East has won all three Championship games under the current East/West format. After sleep walking through the first nine games of the season, the Badgers had two tough games and a big rivalry game to end the year. Wisconsin played perhaps its best games of the season in those last three and will be a hot team coming into Indianapolis. Ohio State also comes in red hot, winning its last three by an average of 31.3 points per game since being blasted by Iowa....and two of those three wins are against two of the five best teams in the conference. This will be a fun matchup that will be decided by turnovers. If Wisconsin takes care of the football, I think Bucky comes away with the win and the berth in the College Football Playoff.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Ohio State 23
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