Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Michigan/Wisconsin review

It was a typical Wisconsin football game. It was low scoring and had plenty of punts, but in the end, the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers dominated the second half to knock off the Michigan Wolverines 24-10 at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday. The Badgers improve to a still perfect 11-0 and 8-0 in Big Ten play, while No. 24 Michigan falls to a record of 8-3 and 5-3 in conference play. The Wolverines still have not won a road game against a top 25 team since 2006. The Big Ten West champs are one win shy of going a perfect 12-0 in the regular season. Only 5-6 Minnesota stands in the way of 12-0. For as much flack as he has received, Alex Hornibrook made some great throws in the second half to lead Bucky to the big win. That is Hornibrook’s 17th consecutive win as a starter and has improved his overall record to 18-2. If he stays healthy and is a four-year starter, there is a great chance he breaks Joel Stave’s record for wins as a starting quarterback at Wisconsin (31). Also, in the Badgers last 20 November games, they have gone 18-2.....and one of those “losses” was the Jazz Peavy game in 2015 against Northwestern. This is the third win in the past four games against Michigan, and Wisconsin has now won its fourth consecutive game at Camp Randall against the Wolverines. I thought the last two games were two of the best games they’ve played all year. With Ohio State’s 52-14 win over Illinois in Columbus this past Saturday, the Big Ten Championship game is set: Wisconsin vs. Ohio State. If the Badgers win in Minneapolis this upcoming Saturday and then against the Buckeyes, Bucky will be Playoff bound.

There were a number of positives from this game, but I will start with the much-maligned Hornibrook. It was really disappointing to see him throw his 13th interception on the season and 12th in conference play. He now has 10 touchdowns in conference play in addition to his 12 picks. However, like he has done all season, Hornibrook bounced back nicely. The sophomore did not have the most gaudy stats, completing just nine of 19 passes for 143 yards with a touchdown and an interception, but he made big time throws at big time moments in the game. This was one of his lowest efficiency games of the year due to his 47 percent completion percentage and numerous throw aways. Michigan is No. 1 in the country in pass defense, so there were few open windows to throw. Through the first three and a half quarters, Wisconsin’s offense could do nothing. Hornibrook looked bad and Jonathan Taylor had nowhere to run. That all changed on two consecutive touchdown drives. With the Badgers facing a 3rd-and-13 at their own 31, down 10-7, Hornibrook threw a pretty pass to A.J. Taylor down the left sideline for a 51-yard pass down to the Michigan 18. Three plays later, Wisconsin faced a 3rd-and-16 at the 24. Enter Hornibrook once again. With Michigan’s fierce pass rush, it would have been easy for Paul Chryst to run the ball and play for the field goal and the tie. However, he went for the lead, and Hornibrook stepped up in pocket and delivered and absolute strike over the middle to A.J. Taylor for the score. That is what is so frustrating about him. He can make some of the worst decisions you’ll see a quarterback make, but then he’ll make throws like those two to A.J. Taylor which make you say “wow.” His next step in his maturation process will be to become more consistent. He also obviously needs to improve his decision making. Hornibrook has thrown at least one interception in every conference game and that just can’t happen. Wisconsin will have plenty of weapons at his disposal. One thing about the Badgers signal caller is that he has a short memory. He seemingly plays well following interceptions. I have criticized Hornibrook in the past, as he quite often lands on the disappointing parts in game reviews, But he absolutely deserves credit when it’s due. His throws to A.J. Taylor opened up everything against Michigan. Following those passes, Jonathan Taylor and Kendric Pryor found room on the ground and the Badgers was able to pull away. I would give him the MVP of this game.

Even though it was rough going for most of the day, the running game kept coming and eventually wore down the Michigan defense. I know Taylor’s 52-yard run and Pryor’s 32-yard touchdown run inflated the stats a bit, but the Badgers rushed for 182 yards and 4.6 yards per carry. The 182 rushing yards gained by Wisconsin are the second most allowed by Michigan this year, only behind Penn State’s 224. Taylor continued his big freshman campaign, rushing for 132 yards on 19 carries. His 132 yards are the most allowed by Michigan opponent all year and he is only the second Wolverines opponent to reach the century mark in rushing this season. For his efforts, Taylor won his seventh Big Ten Freshman of the Week award, tying him with Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett for the most all-time. Pryor has also been a weapon on the jet sweep. The last few years, the Badgers have dominated opponents with that play. Chryst has tried a few different players on the jet sweep throughout the year, and has finally found success. In all of the last three games, Wisconsin has scored using that play. Against Indiana, it was Jonathan Taylor and in the last two, it has been freshman wide receiver Kendric Pryor. The latter has carried the ball four times this season......and two of them have gone for six. In the last game against Michigan, Pryor had carried the ball twice for six yards. But after Hornibrook and Jonathan Taylor loosened up the defense, Pryor found space and went untouched 32 yards to put Bucky in front 21-10. If that play keeps working like it has in the previous three games, it just makes Wisconsin’s running game that much more potent.

I will add more about the defense in the next paragraph, but I will single out Nick Nelson for not only what he did on defense, but obviously the impact he had on special teams in the win. With Wisconsin getting nothing done on offense in the first quarter, it was Nelson who put the Badgers on the board first. In the ultimate “No, no, YES!!!!” play, the junior cornerback let a short punt by Michigan’s Brad Robbins bounce at the Wolverines 48 and then stop at midfield. With all the Michigan coverage players slowing down because they thought Nelson would let them down it, the Wisconsin return man picked it up and ran along the sideline, where he would break a few tackles and cut to his left and race in for the punt return touchdown. Those would be the only points of the first half put up by Wisconsin. Also, with that punt return touchdown, he became the 18th Badgers player to record a touchdown this season, which is the most in modern school history. He also added a 19-yard punt return late in the game to set up the Badgers with good field position, which set up a field goal to put them up by 14. On defense, it was another day at the office. Nelson became the program’s single-season record holder for pass break-ups in a season with 20. He joins Iowa’s Josh Jackson as the only players in the Power 5 to have that many on the season. Nelson has a decision to make on the NFL. Selfishly, as a Badgers fan, I hope he sticks around next season. He and Dontye Carriere-Williams could be another very good cornerback duo in 2018.

Finally, the defense as a whole was outstanding once again. I know, I sound like a broken record. In the previous three games before Wisconsin, Michigan had rushed for 288 yards per game and had rushed for more than 300 twice. Against the Badgers run defense, the Wolverines ran the ball 37 times for a season-low 57 yards. The top two Michigan running backs, Chris Evans and Karan Higdon, gained just 45 yards on 18 carries for just an average of 2.5 yards per carry. The 10 points scored by Michigan are tied for the fewest points scored in the Jim Harbaugh era. Outside of Nelson, a few other Badgers dominated on the defensive side of the ball. First of all, I will include T.J. Edwards. The Butkus Award (given to the nation’s top linebacker) finalist and fellow inside linebacker Ryan Connelly were all over the field against the Wolverines. In the game, the duo combined for 21 tackles, four tackles for loss, a sack and a pass breakup.  Nine of Connelly's 10 stops prevented gains of two yards or more, while Edwards did that eight times. Each made huge plays in the second half to keep Michigan at arm’s length, while waiting for the offense to come alive. After receiving nice field position to start the second half, the Wolverines would drive to the Badgers 38, but Edwards would sack Brandon Peters on third down to force a punt. Then, two possessions later, Wisconsin’s defense was put on the field following the Hornibrook interception. After a first down run by Donovan Peoples-Jones on first down, Michigan had a first down at the 17. Enter Connelly, who made a big stop of Kareem Walker in the backfield for a loss of three. That stop put Michigan behind the chains and was held to a field goal. The Badgers offense would then come alive to pull out the win. The defense has come through big all year and will have its first huge test in Indianapolis on Dec. 2.

To be honest, there were not many glaring negatives from this game. The offense was not good in the first half, only gaining 99 total yards. Amazingly, despite Wisconsin not looking good in the first half, that was still 33 more yards than Iowa gained all game against Bucky the previous week. In the first half, the Badgers only managed three first downs and failed to even march into Michigan territory. Nelson’s punt return was the only real big play of the first half for Bucky. The Wolverines had 169 yards in the first half in controlling that half. Fortunately for Wisconsin, it was tied at 7 at the break and then they dominated the second half. As good as the secondary is, the Badgers did give up two plays of at least 35 yards in that half, and then a 22-yard pass on Michigan’s first play of the second half. After that, the Badgers defense shut the Wolverines offense down the rest of the game. Unless Wisconsin plays Alabama in the College Football Playoff, that defense is the best it will play all year. The offense should have a much better time of it this upcoming game against Minnesota.

Seemingly, this was the last hurdle in terms of going undefeated. It was a solid performance against a good Michigan team. Everyone knew it was going to be a slugfest since these are two of the top five defenses in the country. After being outgained 169-99 in the first half, Wisconsin outgained Michigan in the second half 226-65 in the second half and held them to just one third down conversion. People were waiting for the Badgers to play somebody, and have dominated both Iowa and Michigan in the second half to pull away for multiple score wins. Now Bucky will try to go undefeated for a regular season for the first time since 1912, as Wisconsin plays in Minneapolis against the Gophers, trying to win Paul Bunyan’s Axe for the 14th consecutive season. The game is at 2:30 CST and will be televised on ABC.

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