Friday, March 31, 2017

Top 20 current coaches who have yet to make a Final Four



With Gonzaga’s Mark Few and Oregon’s Dana Altman finally making their first Final Four appearance, this takes out two of the top coaches to never make it that far. Because of that, it got me thinking about which are the top current coaches who have yet to make it to the Final Four, so I have decided to make a top 20 coaches list.

Honorable Mention:

Steve Alford, UCLA (559-278): 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, four Sweet 16 appearances
Tim Cluess, Iona (260-101): Four NCAA Tournament appearances, three conference championships
Greg Gard, Wisconsin (42-18): Two Sweet 16 appearances in two seasons as head coach
Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M (326-264): Three NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16
Dave Rose, BYU (305-111): Eight NCAA Tournament appearances, One Sweet 16 appearance

20. Larry Krystkowiak, Utah (154-105, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

When Krystkowiak took over the Utes, the program had only one NCAA Tournament appearance in six years. He came over from the New Jersey Nets and had two rough years to start his Utes coaching career, going 21-43, including a woeful 8-28 conference record. But since then, he has resurrected the program. He has won at least 20 games each of the last four seasons, including two trips to the NCAA Tournament. I would have a hard time putting him higher on the list since he has only really had four quality seasons since his days at Montana, where he led the Golden Grizzlies to back-to-back NCAA Tournament berths.

19. Bryce Drew, Vanderbilt (143-65, 3 NCAA Tournament appearances)

Drew had a decent start to his high-major coaching career, leading the Commodores to the NCAA Tournament. His record was an average 19-16, but once he gets his players on the team, his record will only improve. The NCAA Tournament hero from his days with the Valparaiso Crusaders led his alma mater to two trips to the Big Dance and a regular season Horizon League championship in four of his five years there. He was a hot coaching candidate prior to the 2016-17 season and once he gets his players on campus, watch out, SEC!

18. Mike White, Florida (149-64, one Elite 8 appearance)

White was a great coach at Louisiana Tech before following Billy Donovan at the University of Florida. He won their conference the last three years, but could not break through and get them into the NCAA Tournament. After a 27-9 season in 2014-15, White left Ruston, Louisiana, to take the job in Gainesville. His first year with the Gators was solid, but unspectacular with a record of 21-15 and a trip to the NIT. However, this past year, he led Florida to a 27-9 record, which was good enough for second place in the SEC and a No. 4 seed. The Gators led South Carolina in the Elite 8 at halftime, but could not hold the lead and White still is searching for his first trip to the Final Four. That could come sooner rather than later.

17. Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa (234-134, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Jacobson is a bit interesting. He has had some great years with the Panthers, but then has had a number of mediocre ones as well. Despite all his success, he has only two conference championships and none since 2010. Northern Iowa missed the tournament this year after back-to-back trips to the Big Dance. He would have made another Sweet 16 trip last year if not for one of the biggest late game collapses in the college basketball history. The Sweet 16 trip made during his tenure was highlighted by a huge upset of Kansas in the second round. He has had opportunities to go to major conference programs, but is content in Cedar Falls for the time being.

16. Randy Bennett, St. Mary’s (364-157, 6 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

It has to be tough to be Bennett. He has run a consistently good program in the West Coast Conference, but is always overshadowed by Gonzaga. He has led the Gaels to 10 consecutive 20-win seasons, including eight of which he has led them to at least 25 wins. But even with that success, they have only made the tournament five times in those 10 years, mostly due to the Zags. When Bennett arrived in 2001, he inherited a program that went 2-27, and has turned it into one of top mid-major programs in the country. Led by big man Omar Samhan and guards Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova, the Gaels made the Sweet 16 in 2010, knocking off No. 2 Villanova in the second round. Like many other mid-major coaches, he has had chances to take higher profile jobs, but has stayed committed to the Gaels.

15. Scott Drew, Baylor (279-178, 7 NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, two Elite 8s)

Now, I do believe Drew is very overrated. He has become the new John Thompson III in the NCAA Tournament. He always has high seeded teams in March, but always gets bounced early come tournament time. After an Elite 8 appearance in both 2010 and 2012, Drew has never made it that far since. The last three years, the Bears have lost to a 14, a 12 and seven seed in the tournament and were not seeded lower than fifth in any of the three years. Eventually, you’d think he will break through. He deserves plenty of credit for turning the program around after the scandal in Waco in 2003. Drew is the winningest coach in the history of the program and has led the Bears to more than half of their NCAA Tournament berths all-time.

14. Mark Turgeon, Maryland (386-226, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)

In the Big Ten, Turgeon has overachieved when expectations were low and underachieved when they were high. However, Maryland has finished in the top three each year the Terps have been in the conference. In their last three years in the ACC, Maryland did not finish above .500 in any of them. His career at Maryland was preceeded by successful stints at Wichita State and Texas A&M, in which he made the Big Dance in five of his last six years. However, other than Wichita State making the Sweet 16 in 2006, Turgeon’s teams had failed to make it past the first weekend. Melo Trimble helped Turgeon in Maryland’s first three years in the new conference, but it will be interesting to see what happens now that Trimble is off to the NBA.

13. Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech (206-134, six NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

After a successful stint with Marquette, Williams is getting something started in Blacksburg. Prior to 2017, Virginia Tech had not made the NCAA Tournament since 2007 and that was the only tournament appearance for the Hokies since they moved to a major conference in 2000. Under James Johnson, Virginia Tech had only 22 wins combined in his two seasons. It took Williams just two seasons to reach the 20-win mark and just three seasons to reach the Big Dance. Prior to Virginia Tech, Williams made the NCAA Tournament in five of his six years with Marquette. In those five years, he made the Sweet 16 twice and Elite 8 once. Buzz will continue to improve the Hokies and will be a player in the ACC soon.

12. Chris Holtmann (114-85, three NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Holtmann turned around the program at Gardner-Webb before being hired at Butler. He could be a fast riser on this list (if he doesn’t erase his name from it). Following two good seasons at Butler taking over for Brad Stevens, he led the Bulldogs to a 25-9 record and a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the program’s highest seed ever. It is even more impressive considering Butler was predicted to be sixth in the conference, but ended up finishing second. Of those 25 wins, two of them came against defending National Champion Villanova.

11. Brad Underwood, Illinois (109-27, four NCAA Tournament appearances)

Underwood has had a fast rise to the top, as he just became a head coach in 2013. After an impressive 89-14 record with Stephen F. Austin, including an incredible 53-1 record in conference, he took a job with Oklahoma State and led the Cowboys to a 20-13 record and an NCAA Tournament berth. The 20 wins were an eight win improvement over 2015-16. Following the season, he took a job with Illinois, trying to get the Illini to the Big Dance for the first time since 2013. The state of Illinois is loaded with terrific basketball talent, so the opportunity is there for Underwood to make a splash.

10. Mick Cronin, Cincinnati (306-159, nine NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Cronin started his coaching career with Murray State and led the Racers to an impressive 69-24 record in his three seasons, including a pair of berths in the Big Dance. He then returned to coach his alma mater and quickly turned around Cincinnati after a rough first two years. The Bearcats have won at least 20 games the last seven seasons and at least 12 in conference play in the last four seasons. Unfortunately, though, he has only been able to make it past the first weekend once. Much like Scott Drew, Cronin has been so successful in the regular season that you’d think he’d make a tournament run eventually.

9. Bruce Pearl, Auburn (506-199, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Pearl’s record has taken a bit of a hit the last few years, as he took over the Auburn program and has not had the success that was expected when he was hired. In his first job in Division I with Milwaukee, he led the Panthers to two NCAA Tournament appearances in his four seasons. In his last year there, he led them to the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed. He took a job with Tennessee and promptly took the Vols to the Big Dance in all six of his seasons. In those six years, he led them to a pair of Sweet 16s and an Elite 8. He was one point away from making the Final Four, losing by one point to Michigan State in 2010. He was fired after an NCAA investigation involving former Ohio State guard Aaron Craft, but came back with Auburn in 2014. However, he improved the team to a 18-14, its best record since 2008-09.

8. Steve Prohm, Iowa State (151-52, three NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Like Cronin, Prohm also started his coaching career at Murray State. And like Cronin, he was very successful with the Racers. He had an impressive record of 104-29 in his four seasons there before taking over for Fred Hoiberg at Iowa State and the program has not skipped a beat. He has a 47-23 record for the Cyclones in his first two years and the lowest seed he has had is a five. He made the Sweet 16 in his first year. Even with the Big 12 being arguably the toughest conference in the country, Iowa State is in very good hands with Prohm.

7. Archie Miller, Indiana (139-63, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

Miller decided to make the leap to a big conference after spending his first six years as the head coach at Dayton. In his last four years with the Flyers, Dayton has had at least 24 wins and made the NCAA Tournament each year. In 2014, he took his team to the Elite 8 before losing to the overall No. 1 seed Florida. He has not made it past the first weekend since then, but after moving to Indiana, he will have all the resources in order for him to be successful. The last two successful coaches at Dayton who left did not fare so well, so he will have an opportunity to break that trend.

6. Jamie Dixon, TCU (352-138, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Most of Dixon’s success came early on at Pittsburgh, where he had at least 25 wins in seven of his first eight years, but still no Final Four. He made it to the Sweet 16 twice and to the Elite 8 once. He was a Scottie Reynolds runner in the paint away from advancing to the Final Four in 2009. However, following that year, Pittsburgh never made it past the first weekend the rest of Dixon’s tenure. That included a No. 1 seed in 2011 and losing in the second round to Butler. Still, he has only failed to lead a team to at least 20 once in his coaching career. That includes one season with perennial bottom feeder TCU. Following the 2015-16 season, Dixon took a job with his alma mater and led the program to its most wins in a single season since 1997-98. The Horned Frogs were picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 preseason poll and finished seventh in perhaps the toughest conference in college basketball. To put a feather in his cap on the season, TCU won the NIT championship. Dixon needed to make this list based on him leading TCU to this type of season alone. He could turn his alma mater into a real tough out in the conference.

5. Matt Painter, Purdue (290-147, 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s)

Painter has had tremendous regular season success (has finished in the top three eight of 13 seasons in the Big Ten), but has not been able to get past the Sweet 16. He has made the NCAA Tournament 10 times, but when he has made the Sweet 16, his Boilermakers have lost by an average of 19 points per game. This year, Painter made it past the first weekend for the first time since 2010. This resume looks similar to Bo Ryan before he made the Final Four in 2014. Prior to making the Final Four, Ryan made 12 NCAA appearances with four Sweet 16s and an Elite 8. There still is hope for Painter, but he needs to advance far in the tournament sooner rather than later.

4. Chris Mack, Xavier (187-91, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

In his first eight years with the Muskateers, he has led them to the Big Dance seven times. Of those seven times making the dance, Xavier has made it past the first weekend four times. They made a nice run this year as a No. 11 seed, making it to the Elite 8 despite losing star guard Edmond Sumner halfway through the season. It remains to be seen whether he wants to go to an ACC or Big Ten or Pac 12 school, but Xavier has produced some good ones from Skip Prosser to Thad Matta to Sean Miller. He is a star in the coaching profession and I think it is just a matter of time before he reaches the biggest stage in the sport.

3. Mike Brey, Notre Dame (482-239, 14 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16, two Elite 8s)

Other than 2014-15, Brey has not had any *great* teams, but consistently has been very good. He has made the NCAA Tournament in nine of the last 11 years, making the Elite 8 twice. But, like all the others on this list, he has struggled when it counts the most. Prior to the two consecutive trips to the Elite 8, he had only made it past the first weekend once in his first 14 years with the school. He was very close in 2015, almost handing Kentucky its first loss of the season in the Elite 8. Brey is a very good coach who has a few more runs at the Final Four in him.

2. Tony Bennett, Virginia (257-116, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

After taking over for his father, Dick Bennett, Tony led the Washington State Cougars to two consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances after not going to the dance since 1994. He also led the Cougars to their first NCAA win since 1983. Washington State has not gone back to the dance since Bennett left for Virginia in 2009. After missing the tournament in three of his first four years with the Cavaliers, he has turned the program into a national power. He led the Cavs to back-to-back 30 win seasons to go along with the two conference championships. From 2014-2016, Virginia had a one seed twice and a two seed once. In 2016, Virginia seemingly was destined for the Final Four. After dispatching No. 4 Iowa State in the Sweet 16, all that stood in their way was No. 10 Syracuse. Virginia looked poised to break through as it led by 14 at the break, but collapsed down the stretch and lost 68-62. After that, it makes you wonder if he will ever get to the sport’s biggest stage. He is one of college basketball’s best coaches, but he may have let his best opportunity slip through his fingers.

1. Sean Miller, Arizona (340-113, 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, four Elite 8s)

If you were to make a list of the top 10 current college basketball coaches, Miller would be on it, no question. In his eight years with the Wildcats, he has won the conference four times, including three of the last four years. He has also won at least 30 games five times in his career (four at Arizona, one at Xavier). That 2014-15 team was probably his best team, but Arizona could not stop Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. They may have been the second or third best team in the country that year, but Wisconsin was a terrible matchup for them. As a matter of fact, Miller would have a pair of Final Fours if it weren’t for Kaminsky. Going to four Elite 8s without one win is just bad luck. It is only a matter of when and not if he makes it to a Final Four. He is too good of a coach not to. Making it past the first weekend seven of the last 10 seasons and not getting to the Final Four has been tough.

As always, feel free to rip away if you disagree...

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Dear Selection committee, time to give mid-majors more love


It is that time of year once again. With Selection Sunday in four days, it is time once again for me to complain about the love for the power conference schools instead of giving at-large spots to deserving mid-major schools.

First off, and I have said this from day one: an NCAA Tournament appearance should be a reward for a terrific season. I would much rather see a mid-major team that had 25 wins over a major conference school that ended the regular season with 19 or 20 wins. Is 20 wins a real accomplishment for power schools? Fans from said power schools and members of the selection committee will always point to the RPI and take it as gospel. The RPI is due to playing in a power conference and many really good mid-majors cannot schedule top teams unless the teams have a traditional game (such as Wisconsin and Green Bay) or a connection (Green Bay/Virginia played due to Tony Bennett connection). Unless it is a perennial top mid-major team like Gonzaga or Wichita State, it would be a lose-lose scenario for the power school. That hurts a mid-major’s RPI by not being able to schedule top notch teams. That hurts when the committee looks at record RPI vs. top 50 or top 100 teams. Many good mid-majors are not able to schedule many teams that fit that criteria.

As a mid-major, you cannot have an off day. There is virtually no margin for error. But, more often than not, even great mid-major teams slip up. The team may have a bad shooting game or the opponent may just catch fire, but the committee sees that as a black eye. If that happens against a power conference school, it does not hurt as much since their RPI is much better than some random school from the Ohio Valley or Summit or Horizon.

Since it still bothers me to this day and this one hits close, I was looking at some stats for the 2014 NCAA Tournament. As a graduate of Green Bay, I will use the Phoenix as an example. Green Bay was 24-5 on the year. Two of those losses came to Wisconsin (which went to the Final Four that year and Green Bay lost by one score) and Harvard, one of the best mid-major teams (it was close until the closing minutes). One of the losses was an ugly one to Eastern Michigan and one was to hot-shooting Milwaukee, while the other was to Valparaiso in which Alec Brown was out. Among the wins, the Phoenix knocked off the eventual ACC champ, Virginia.

North Carolina State finished the regular season and conference tournament with a record of 21-13, and made the tournament as the final seed in the dance. NC State was a few spots ahead in the RPI and Green Bay had a slight advantage in BPI and KenPom. The Wolfpack had eight games against the RPI top 25.....and won a single game, while Green Bay went 1-1 in such games. Against teams in the RPI top 100, NC State was 6-10, while Green Bay was 4-3. The two teams also had two common opponents: Virginia and Detroit. The Phoenix went 3-0 against those teams, while NC State went 1-1, including a 31-point pounding in Raleigh against UVA. To this day, I think there is no way the Wolfpack should have made it over the Phoenix, but North Carolina State gets preferential treatment due to being in the ACC.

Now, back to this year. How in the world are teams like Illinois and Wake Forest still in contention for an NCAA Tournament berth? The Illini are 18-13 and the Demon Deacons are 19-12. Are we really going to reward mediocrity like that? Illinois State, on the other hand, finished 27-6. Sure, the strength of schedule in 155, but part of that is due to the fact that the Ohio Valley is down as a conference this year. Still, a 27-win season is a damn good season for the Redbirds and I would much rather see them in the field than Illinois or Wake Forest or Syracuse. Same with Middle Tennessee. Obviously, they are still involved the Conference USA Tournament, but if they were to lose, the Blue Raiders would be on the bubble. They might still get in, but it would be close. Same goes with UT-Arlington if the Mavericks were to lose in the Sun Belt Tournament.

It does not happen often, and I know the selection committee would never ask for my opinion, but I will always defend the mid-major. It is a shame that some of the best mid-majors don’t go to the tournament due to their opponent in the conference tournament getting hot and losing and not being able to go in as an at-large. Look at VCU and George Mason, for instance. Both were at-large mid-major teams that proved their worth in the tournament. I guess we will all found out in four days.