Friday, March 30, 2018

Top 20 current coaches who have yet to make the Final Four

None of the coaches from last year’s list were able to make the Final Four this year, but I did make some changes. Here is my up-to-date list...

Honorable Mention:

Dave Rose, BYU (329-122, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)
Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M (347-277, four NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)
Greg Gard, Wisconsin (57-36, two NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)
Tim Cluess, Iona (280-114, five NCAA Tournament appearances)
Steve Alford, UCLA (579-291, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, four Sweet 16s)
Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa (250-150, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)
Bryce Drew, Vanderbilt (155-85, three NCAA Tournament appearances)
Dan Hurley, Connecticut (150-104, two NCAA Tournament appearances)

20. Mark Turgeon, Maryland (407-239, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)

After having three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, led by Melo Trimble, the Terrapins had a down year, finishing outside the top three in the Big Ten for the first time in four years. Before being hired at Maryland, Turgeon turned around Wichita State and led the Shockers to four consecutive postseason appearances. He then led the Texas A&M Aggies to NCAA Tournament appearances in all four of his seasons in College Station. He will need to prove more in the NCAA Tournament, though, as he has only led one team past the first weekend since he took the jump to a major conference school (11 years). If Justin Jackson comes back, he should be able to get the Terps to make a run next season.

19. Larry Krystkowiak, Utah (179-117, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Krystkowiak’s Utes finished in a tie for third in the Pac 12, but missed the Big Dance after being bounced in the first game of the conference tournament. Utah was picked seventh in the preseason after losing forward Kyle Kuzma to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Draft. Utah was a No. 2 seed in the NIT and was able to win four straight before losing to Penn State in the NIT Championship. Obviously, it is not what Krystkowiak and the Utes wanted, but the run they made in the NIT is something to build on for next season. Utah does lose its top two scorers from this year, so it will be difficult, but I expect Utah to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth anyway.

18. Brad Underwood, Illinois (123-45, four NCAA Tournament appearances)

I had to move Underwood down after that season he just had. Illinois was terrible. After an incredible run at Stephen F. Austin in which he led the Lumberjacks to an 89-14 record and an incredible 53-1 conference record, he led the Oklahoma State Cowboys to the tournament last season. He came to Illinois, and the Fighting Illini went 14-18 and just 4-14 in Big Ten play. The state of Illinois is loaded with high-level prospects, so maybe Underwood can turn the program around since the Illini have not made the tournament since 2013.

17. Scott Drew, Baylor (318-205, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, two Elite 8s)

It seems like many times in big games, Drew gets outcoached....but then you look up and see he has made it past the first weekend four times in seven tournament appearances. However, he has made the tournament just seven times in 15 seasons. I will say that Baylor was in rough, rough shape after the Patrick Dennehy scandal. He does deserve credit for turning the program around, and making the Bears regulars in the NCAA Tournament after making only one appearance in the Big Dance since 1950. Once his teams do get in the tournament, though, they either go far or get bounced by a lower-seeded team early. Drew has been a really solid coach for the Bears, and maybe at some point, he could get lucky and make a run to the Final Four.

16. Chris Beard, Texas Tech (141-54, two NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

Beard is one of two newcomers to the list, along with the guy ranked one spot ahead of him. For his record, I included his time at McMurry and Angelo State. Since his jump to Division I, his teams have gone 75-29, at Little Rock and Texas Tech. After leading Little Rock to a 30-5 season and a first-round upset against Purdue, he left after one year to go coach the Red Raiders. In only two seasons in Lubbock, he led Texas Tech to its first appearance ever in the Elite 8 and its first time reaching the Sweet 16 since 2005. He has the program headed in the right direction, and the 45-year-old may not stay on this list very long.

15. Eric Musselman, Nevada (81-29, two NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Musselman started off a bit late in college basketball, starting as a head coach in 2015 after spending the previous 18 seasons either as a college assistant coach or in the NBA. In his first season, he rebuilt Nevada after a 9-22 season. He led the Wolfpack to a 15-win increase in 2015-16 and a CBI championship. In his next two seasons, he led them to two consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances and a berth in the Sweet 16 this year. Nevada is in good hands moving forward, but expect big name schools to come calling for his services soon.

14. Mike White, Florida (170-88, two NCAA appearances, one Elite 8)

White led the Gators to their second straight NCAA Tournament berth, following a season in which they played in the NIT. It was a bit of a disappointing season for him and Florida, but still was a No. 6 seed in the Big Dance and gave Texas Tech and Chris Beard a good game in the second round. In his final three years with Louisiana Tech, he led the Bulldogs to 83 wins and a conference title all three years. However, he could not get his team over the hump and into the Big Dance and had to settle for the NIT all three seasons. In 2017, his Gators led South Carolina at halftime in the Elite 8, but could not hold the lead.

13. Randy Bennett, St. Mary’s (392-162, six NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Bennett has been an outstanding coach, having led his Gaels to 20+ wins in each of the last 11 seasons. However, he has only gone to the tournament in five of those seasons due to him being in the same conference as Mark Few and Gonzaga. Despite leading the Gaels to a 30-win season, they missed the tournament and were bounced in the NIT Quarterfinals. Bennett took over a woeful St. Mary’s program and has turned it into a powerful program. I wonder if Bennett will ever take an offer from a major conference job.

12. Steve Prohm, Iowa State (164-70, three NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

After averaging more than 25 wins per season in his first six seasons as a coach, I’ll give him a pass for last season. For the first time since 2012-13, Prohm failed to reach the postseason. His 2017-18 Iowa State team went just 13-18 and 4-14 in Big 12 play. That should not be too get surprising, though, as Iowa State lost five of the top six scorers from 2016-17, including the top four who all averaged double figures. I will give him another year, but if he struggles again in the 2018-19 year, then he will fall down this list quite a bit. But I do think he is a good coach, and will get things headed in the right direction once again.

11. Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech (227-146, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Williams has turned around the Virginia Tech program after winning just nine games in 2013-14. In Buzz’s first season, he won 11 games overall and two games in conference. In his last three years, the Hokies have won 63 games and has finished above .500 in the ACC all three years. But he has failed to finish above seventh in the ACC and has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game, even though the two tournament losses were close losses to Wisconsin and Alabama. Williams has done a solid job, but will need to make a run soon at Virginia Tech, as he will be entering his fifth year. He averaged more than 23 wins per season with Marquette and made the Sweet 16 twice and an Elite 8.

10. Chris Holtmann, Ohio State (139-94, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Holtmann’s record is a little deceiving, as he turned around a Gardner-Webb program that had not had a winning record since 2005-06. In his first two seasons with the Runnin’ Bulldogs, they went 23-41 and did not finish higher than ninth in the Big South. However, in his third season, he led them to a 21-13 record and a berth in the CIT. He was hired to take over for a Butler legend in Brad Stevens and was 70-31 in three seasons and reached the Sweet 16 in 2017. I was tempted to put him higher after what happened this past season. Ohio State let Thad Matta go after a successful stint with the Buckeyes but had a few rough years at the end of his tenure. The Buckeyes hired Holtmann to try to get them into the tournament for the first time in three years, and he exceeded expectations in year one. Despite being ranked low in the preseason rankings in the Big Ten, Holtmann led the Buckeyes to a 25-9 record and second place finish in the Big Ten. If Big Ten Player of the Year Keita Bates-Diop comes back for his senior season, the Buckeyes will challenge for the conference championship once again.

9. Archie Miller, Indiana (155-78, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

After a successful stint at Dayton in which he led the Flyers to NCAA Tournament appearances in his final four years, Miller headed to Indiana to take over for Tom Crean. At Dayton, he went 139-63, but was unable to carry over his success to Bloomington, at least right away. His tenure with the Hoosiers got off to a rocky start when they were blown out at home by Indiana State in the opener. Indiana was 12-12 to start out the season, but won four straight to gain confidence down the stretch. But the Hoosiers lost three straight to finish the season, including a loss to No. 14 seed Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament. Next year, Miller brings back five of his top seven scorers, including his leading scorer Juwan Morgan. He has a good recruiting class coming in, so the Hoosiers will not be down for long.

8. Mick Cronin, Cincinnati (337-164, 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

One of the best seasons in Cincinnati history went up in flames early on in the NCAA Tournament, as the Bearcats failed to reach the second weekend as a No. 2 seed. Still, that was a fantastic season for Cronin’s bunch. Cincinnati only loses two players, so the Cats could be back atop the American Athletic Conference once again. However, one of the players they do lose is AAC Player of the Year Gary Clark, so he will be a big loss. But Cincinnati is no stranger to big losses, and Cronin keeps churning out successful teams. Cronin has a reputation of his teams flaming out early in the tournament, though, as his teams have averaged more than 26 wins per season in the last five years, but none of those teams have even reached the second weekend.

7. Jamie Dixon, TCU (373-150, 12 NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

After posting a 73 percent winning percentage with the Pitt Panthers, he moved on to his alma mater, TCU. Pitt was getting frustrated since Dixon had not made it past the first weekend since 2009. Prior to Dixon’s arrival in Fort Worth, the Horned Frogs were a doormat. In Trent Johnson’s four years with the program, TCU only had one winning season and was a combined 8-64 in conference play and never finished higher than ninth in the conference. Dixon quickly helped turn the program around, going 24-15 in his first year at the helm and led the Horned Frogs to the NIT championship. He used that as a springboard to this past season in which TCU won 21 games and earned its first NCAA Tournament berth since 1998. Heading into next season, Dixon will lose his top two scorers, but he certainly has this program headed in the right direction. The program that was frustrated with Dixon? Yeah....not so much. Pitt just fired Kevin Stallings after a season in which it went 0-18 in ACC play.

6. Bruce Pearl, Auburn (532-207, nine NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Pearl came in and took over the Auburn Tigers, which had just won 18 of 68 conference games under the previous coach, Tony Barbee. He needed a few years, but Pearl was able to turn the program around. In his first three seasons with the Tigers, he failed to reach .500 in conference play and did not finish above 11th in the SEC. That all changed this season when he led Auburn to an SEC championship and its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2003. That is after turning Tennessee into a power. In his first four seasons in Knoxville, he never finished lower than second in the SEC East and won at least 21 games each year, including a 31-5 season in 2007-08. His fifth year at Tennessee, he led the Vols to a 28-9 season and a berth in the Elite 8, where they would fall one point short against Michigan State. Auburn only had one senior on the roster, so with everyone else returning, the Tigers should be in contention for another SEC championship.

5. Mike Brey, Notre Dame (502-252, 14 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16, two Elite 8s)

Brey has had a solid tenure as the coach for Notre Dame, making the tournament 12 of his 18 years with the Fighting Irish, including back-to-back trips to the Elite 8 in 2015 and 2016. His Irish struggled this past year without leading scorer Bonzie Colson, which led them to missing the Big Dance for the first time since 2014. It is a little concerning for him that other than those back-to-back Elite 8 appearances, the Fighting Irish haven’t made it past the first weekend since 2003. The 59-year-old Brey may have only a few more chances at his elusive first trip the Final Four.

4. Matt Painter, Purdue (320-154, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, four Sweet 16s)

I really thought Purdue had a chance to make the Final Four throughout the regular season. Purdue had everything needed....a good big in Isaac Haas and shooters everywhere. But the Boilermakers struggled down the stretch following a 19-game winning streak. Then, Haas was hurt in the first game of the NCAA Tournament and Purdue never stood much of a chance of reaching San Antonio. This team finished with the most wins in the history of the program, but the Haas injury was a killer. Despite having at least 25 wins in seven of his seasons, he cannot get over the hump, or even make the Elite 8. His predecessor Gene Keady was the same way, being bounced in the Sweet 16 three times and the Elite 8 twice. He’ll have to replace several key contributors from this year’s team, but will return one of the best players in the Big Ten, Carsen Edwards. It will be interesting to see if Painter (and Purdue) will finally be able to get over the hump, as the Boilermakers haven’t made the Final Four since 1980.

3. Chris Mack, Louisville (215-97, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Mack was the lead man for Xavier for nine seasons before heading to Louisville after the Cardinals moved on from interim coach David Padgett. The Mack hire was an Aaron Judge homer for Louisville, and he will have the facilities and resources to help get the Cardinals back to the Final Four. The 48-year-old Mack led the Musketeers to the second weekend of the Big Dance four times during his nine-year career at his alma mater. But in his best year, this past year when his team went 29-6 and earned a No. 1 seed, they couldn’t make it past the opening weekend. Go figure. He won more than 20 games in every season but one and had at least 24 wins five seasons, including his last three. Nothing against Xavier, but it is just a matter of time before Mack reaches the Final Four with Louisville, and heading to the Cardinals was great for his career.

2. Tony Bennett, Virginia (288-119, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Oof, Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers had an incredible season, but what a way for it to end. Virginia rolled through the regular season, going 28-2, and won the ACC Tournament, beating North Carolina to win it. Virginia was 31-2 but lost to UMBC, being the first No. 1 to lose to a 16. Many thought a 16 would eventually win, but this was a dominating performance, as the Cavaliers lost by 20. The 74 points given up was the most points surrendered in regulation since also allowing 74 against North Carolina in February of 2016. This loss will be a black mark on what otherwise is a tremendous resume for Bennett. Just one thing is missing: a Final Four. Virginia has become a National power, winning at least 29 games in four of the last five seasons. But in those five seasons, the Cavaliers only made it past the first weekend twice. Virginia has won the ACC regular season three times in the last five seasons, but the program will not be considered an elite current program until there is success in the tournament.

1. Sean Miller, Arizona (367-121, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, four Elite 8s)

If Bennett deserves an “oof,” Miller does as well. The Arizona Wildcats came into the NCAA Tournament playing really well, winning five consecutive and eight of nine, and that one loss was in overtime. The Wildcats rolled through the Pac 12 Tournament, winning all three games by double digits. Arizona had perhaps the best player in college basketball in Deandre Ayton, who may be the No. 1 overall draft pick in June. The fourth-seeded Wildcats then fell on their face, getting crushed by the Buffalo Bulls by 21. This could have been the team to break the drought for Miller, especially with the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds all losing before the Sweet 16. It does not help that two of the best teams Miller has had ran into Frank Kaminsky in the Elite 8. His teams have won the conference four of the last five seasons, and has hit at least 30 wins in three of those years. At some point, though, Miller will break through, you’d think. It is a mystery how he has yet to reach the Final Four. I know I have been saying this for awhile, but it is just a matter of time for him.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

MLB Predictions



AL

Central
1. Indians
2. Twins*
3. Royals
4. White Sox
5. Tigers

East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox*
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Rays

West
1. Astros
2. Angels
3. Rangers
4. Mariners
5. A's

NL

Central
1. Cubs
2. Brewers
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Pirates

East
1. Nationals
2. Mets
3. Braves
4. Phillies
5. Marlins

West
1. Dodgers
2. Diamondbacks*
3. Rockies*
4. Padres
5. Giants

Wild Cards
Red Sox over Twins
Diamondbacks over Rockies

Division Series
Yankees over Red Sox
Astros over Indians
Dodgers over Diamondbacks
Cubs over Nationals

Championship Series
Yankees over Astros
Cubs over Dodgers

World Series
Yankees over Cubs


MVP
Aaron Judge, Yankees
Bryce Harper, Nationals

Cy Young
Corey Kluber, Indians
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Rookies of the Year
Glayber Torres, Yankees
Ronald Acuna, Braves

Monday, March 12, 2018

Packers top five needs

Free agency officially begins on Wednesday, however, the legal tampering begins today. Because of that, I wanted to write about the top five needs for the Green Bay Packers as we officially start the new year. Green Bay made a splash last Friday by trading defensive back Damarious Randall to the Cleveland Browns for quarterback DeShone Kizer and a swap of picks in the fourth and fifth rounds. It creates an even bigger hole at cornerback, which must be addressed in the next few months.

5. Wide Receiver

Even with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb likely to come back, the Packers still need a receiver, specifically a deep threat, which they lacked last season. More weapons makes the Green Bay offense that much better. A player like John Brown would make this offense so incredible. The offense would average 30 points per game. Even if they stand pat in free agency, Brian Gutekunst could take a page from Ted Thompson’s book and look ahead since both Nelson and Cobb are free agents in 2019. They could very easily draft one in the first few rounds next month for the future.

4. Right Tackle

Starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga likely will not be ready for the opening game and may actually start on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which would force him to miss the first six weeks. Regardless, if he is kept, the Packers will need a capable backup at right tackle. They are solid from left tackle to right guard, but still have questions at right tackle. When healthy, Bulaga is one of the best right tackles in the league. The key is “when healthy,” as the former Iowa Hawkeye has played 16 games just twice in his seven-year career and has played 12 or fewer games four times, including playing a career-low five games in 2017. The players who played there last year struggled, so a capable backup is needed, especially if Bulaga has to miss a third of the season. Fortunately, Green Bay has done well drafting mid-round offensive linemen. They also could sign a veteran in free agency, such as Justin Pugh.

3. Tight End

There is a big gap between the top three and the rest. Tight end is a must-add this offseason. As of right now, Lance Kendricks is the only tight end on the roster. Mike McCarthy asks his tight ends to do quite a bit, so adding one via free agency is the best option, such as Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The former Buccaneer and Jet is a solid receiver, despite having only 1,070 yards receiving in four years. The quarterbacks for those teams are not exactly good. One thing that does concern me is he has only played 38 games in four seasons. He has improved his blocking significantly, which is a definite positive in McCarthy’s offense. Tight ends always take a little bit of time to make a real impact, which is why a free agent also makes sense. However, unlike a number of Packers fans, I would rather not spend big money on Jimmy Graham. He’s still a good receiver, but he is on the decline, and does not offer much as a blocker. In addition to signing one, drafting one in the first four rounds would be wise too, as there are some real solid players who can be had in the first half of the draft.

2. Cornerback

Some might think this should easily be No. 1, and I admit, it was a tough call between cornerback and pass rusher. It is easy to see why, considering the Packers just shipped off Randall to the NFL’s version of Siberia. There is no question Green Bay needs to use free agency and the draft to shore up this position. One player who intrigues the Packers is Trumaine Johnson, formerly of the Los Angeles Rams. He was No. 1 in press coverage in 2017. It will all depend on how much he asks for, which could knock the Packers out of the running. Some others who may intrigue the organization are Jacksonville’s Aaron Colvin, Washington’s Bashaud Breeland and the recently released Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The draft class is also deep at the position. Grabbing one early and then in the middle rounds would be a good plan. The player I am a huge fan of is Florida State’s Derwin James. He is listed as a safety, but he can also play slot corner as well, and was asked about that in their interview at the combine. With their early fourth, a corner like Wisconsin’s Nick Nelson would be great as well.

1. Pass Rusher

As I stated above, it was close, but what is the secondary’s best friend? That’s right, a pass rush. Clay Matthews is still is a good player, but his days of being a premier pass rusher are over. Add that along with the fact that Nick Perry has yet to play a full season, and you get a gaping hole at pass rusher. They can get pass rushers of any position. Yes, in a 3-4 defense, outside linebackers are the main pass rushers. However, they should look for guys who can rush the passer at other positions as well. I mentioned above about James. Well, he is a jack-of-all-trades guy. He can cover, he can play in the box and he can blitz. The Florida State standout only had one sack last season, but he had 4.5 as freshman. A few more players the Packers could look at in the draft are UT-San Antonio’s Marcus Davenport, Boston College’s Harold Landry and Louisiana State’s Arden Key. In free agency, guys who the Packers could try to sign are Washington’s Trent Murphy and Junior Galette or one of the Eagles pass rushers (maybe Vinny Curry or Brandon Graham, if released) since Philadelphia is in cap hell. I guess we will found out in the next month or so.

Friday, March 9, 2018

A Look Ahead to the 2018-19 Green Bay Phoenix

Green Bay men’s basketball is coming off its worst season ever, ranking in the 300s in RPI. Last offseason was a tumultuous one for the Phoenix, as Green Bay not only lost six seniors, but lost two transfers, Kerem Kanter and Trevor Anderson, as well. Kanter was a graduate transfer who went to Xavier, while Anderson transferred to Wisconsin. Those were eight of the top nine scorers from the 2016-17 season. That is a complete overhaul of the roster, and to no one’s surprise, the team struggled a bit.

Khalil Small was the leading returning scorer, and he averaged 11.3 points per game as a junior. and scored more than 18 per game this past year, which led the team. The second leading returning scorer was Kameron Hankerson, who just averaged three points per game as a freshman. Losing eight of the top nine scorers from the previous year took some time to adjust.

Green Bay was one of the youngest teams in the country with seven freshmen, which was literally half the roster. The only two seniors were Small and David Jesperson. The season did not start well, falling behind 6-0 and 11-3 against Northern Illinois en route to a 20-point loss in the opener. The Phoenix shot just 26 percent from the field, and Small just shot 2-of-14. The slow starts would be a theme for Green Bay this year.

Led by Small and junior Sandy Cohen, a transfer from Marquette, the team played its best down the stretch. Despite going 2-3 in the final five games, the Phoenix was playing really well heading into the conference tournament. Green Bay played the top four teams in the conference in succession before playing Detroit to end the year. In a road game against Wright State and home game against UIC, Green Bay had a double digit lead and was unable to hold on, and the Phoenix had a second half lead in Northern Kentucky before falling by six. It hurt to have a second half lead in all three of those games before falling. The team showed resilience, though, beating Oakland and Detroit on the road to end the season.

I thought Green Bay had a chance to win the conference tournament, despite having a 7-11 conference record and a No. 7 seed in the tournament. Detroit was not a very good team, and Green Bay was able to hold off a second half rally by the Titans and won because of Hankerson’s 36 points. But it could not get anything going against Wright State, which would go on to win the conference tournament.

That leads us to next season. The Phoenix will have to replace a tremendous player in Small, who ended the season with a career-high 34 in the second round loss to Wright State. It will also have to replace Jesperson, who started all 33 games, and averaged eight points per game.

If everyone returns, Green Bay should be better. Granted, much of that has to do with the improvement of the freshmen. And yes, replacing Small will be a difficult task. They also gain a pair of transfers. One is forward Cody Schwartz, who is a transfer from San Jose State. The second is former Milwaukee guard Jay’Quan McCloud, who transferred to Highland Community College before heading to Green Bay for his final two seasons.

After averaging 24 minutes per game as a freshman and averaging seven points per game, Schwartz just averaged four points a game in 13 minutes as a sophomore. His field goal percentage was near 37 percent in both of his first two seasons at San Jose State, but improved his 3-point shooting to above 40 percent as a sophomore for the Spartans. He only averaged 1.1 rebounds per game in his last season with San Jose State, and Green Bay struggled rebounding the ball last year, so he’ll need to improve in that area with the Phoenix.

McCloud scored 5.3 points per game for Milwaukee as a freshman in just 14 minutes per game. At Highland, McCloud averages 15 points per game on 52 percent shooting, and is shooting more than 43.6 percent from deep. McCloud is a scoring point guard, which is needed with the graduation of Small, as he averages less than three assists per game.

The two transfers may very well be in the starting lineup next season. My best guess will be those two, along with Cohen, Hankerson and Manny Patterson. Cohen averaged 16 points per game following having to sit out the first 11 games due to his transfer. Hankerson averaged nearly 11 per game while shooting 39 percent from deep. Patterson averaged six points and five rebounds per game, but missed the final six games due to injury. He had surgery and will not be able to do much in the offseason, and it hurts to lose an offseason of development.

If a few of the freshmen from last season improve a bit this offseason, the Phoenix could have a deep team next season. Eleven players started at least one game this past season, and 10 averaged more than 12 minutes per game. All Green Bay needs is a few to take big jumps from this past year to the next, and the Phoenix will be a formidable and deep team.

The Phoenix will have to improve in a number of areas if it wants to get close to 20 wins, or even finish above .500. First off, the 42.4 percent field goal percentage was 295th. There are 351 teams in Division I college basketball.....so not good. It is even worse from 2-point territory, ranking 314th. They will need to become a better shooting team. Hopefully Patterson develops into a real nice low post presence. The Phoenix also allowed teams to shoot better than 50 percent from 2. That needs to change as well.

There were some bright spots for Green Bay. First off, the 3-point percentage was a shade over 36 percent, which is not bad. It ranked in the top third of college basketball. The Phoenix also was great at defending the 3, allowing opponents to shoot just 31 percent from deep, which is 16th in the nation in defending the 3-pointer. Small and Jesperson were two of the better 3-point shooters, so others will have to step up.

It should be an interesting offseason and season next year. Replacing Small and Jesperson will be tough, but I think Cohen will make a major leap and others will join him in making a big jump. Look for Green Bay to contend for a top-four finish in the Horizon next season.

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Packers Mock v. 3.0

The compensatory picks have been announced, and like most thought, Green Bay received four extra selections, bringing its total to 12 selections in next month’s NFL Draft. Of course this will change if/when Green Bay brings in free agents. I highly doubt the Packers will add 12 new players this year in the draft. Trading up seems likely, and maybe even trading down in the first round and trade up for a few more picks on day two. We shall see...

1) Marcus Davenport, OLB, UT-San Antonio (previous: Josh Jackson)

Trying to figure out what the Packers will do in the first round is difficult. First off, we have no track record on new General Manager Brian Gutekunst. Secondly, Green Bay has a number of ways it could go. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Packers go Washington nose tackle Vita Vea. A Vea/Clark/Daniels defensive line would be fantastic. It would surprise me, but it would not stun me if Green Bay drafted Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the first round. I will go back to my original mock pick and have them taking Davenport, though. However, with a big combine like many think he will have, I could see him going prior to 14. He had a great Senior Bowl, with five pressures on 25 pass rushing snaps. Davenport is raw and struggled in Senior Bowl practices, but he has the potential to be a dominant pass rusher. Green Bay desperately needs someone to get after the passer, as it ranked 23rd in quarterback pressures in 2017. One thing he will need to improve upon is stopping the run.

2) Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (previous Arden Key)

I have had Miller going to Green Bay in all three of my mocks. I am a huge fan. This may be a reach for him a little bit, and the Packers may be able to trade down and still get him. Even if both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson are kept, Miller still makes a world of sense. First, he is a deep threat the Packers sorely lack, and second, both Cobb and Nelson are free agents next offseason. Green Bay has always been one step ahead. They know when players are becoming free agents and plan ahead. The Packers could always sign someone like John Brown in free agency and eliminate the need of a deep threat, but I still believe the Packers will draft a wide receiver regardless. The former walk-on has been a monster the last two seasons, having at least 95 catches and 1,400 yards both seasons. Even when the other teams know where the ball is going, Miller still comes through. In six of Memphis’ games this year, he had at least 140 yards receiving. Against UCF in the Conference USA Championship game, he did all he could to try to help the Tigers win, catching 14 passes for 195 yards and three touchdowns in the 62-55 double overtime loss. Miller has the potential to be a great slot receiver for the Green and Gold. McCarthy should look to get him the ball in different ways, much like Kansas City does with Tyreek Hill. The Memphis product has a chance to score any time he touches the ball. There is better depth in this wide receiver class than it is better at the top, so they could get a solid receiver prospect in the second or early third day.

3) Alex Cappa, OT, Humboldt State (previous: Miller)

Jason Spriggs has not panned out, and the Packers lack depth along the offensive line. Justin McCray should slide into right guard, but Bryan Bulaga will not be ready for the opening of the season and will likely start the season on the PUP, which will cause him to miss the first six weeks. Green Bay will need a starter the first several weeks, if Bulaga is not a cap casualty. If he is cut, though, the organization will need to look for a right tackle of the future. I think they would sign a player like Justin Pugh to take over until Cappa is ready. The depth along the offensive line is lacking, regardless, so the Packers should take a few linemen in the draft. Spriggs has struggled and Murphy is not ready. Bulaga is hurt quite a bit, and the Packers may look to the draft for a possible replacement.

4a) Nick Nelson, CB, Wisconsin (previous: Troy Fumagalli)

You didn’t think I wouldn’t have a Badger going somewhere, did you? Last mock, I had Troy Fumagalli go in this spot, and his former teammate goes in this spot here. Nelson could help in two areas, both in the secondary and in the return game. With the Badgers, he had 21 pass break-ups, which was the most in the country. In his one season with Wisconsin, He has decent size and does not lack for confidence. Nelson is a terrific cover guy who was second-team All-America by CBS. His biggest question mark is his speed, so he could eliminate that with a good run at the combine, which could push him into the second day. One concern for me about his coverage is the fact that he is a little handsy. He was able to get away with quite a bit at Wisconsin, and would be worried about him being called for quite a few holding penalties in the NFL. This cornerback class is pretty deep, so Nelson could be great value here early on day three. Nelson also would compete to be the punt returner. I believe Trevor Davis’ days are limited. For punt returners with at least 15 punt returns, Nelson finished third in the Big Ten in returning, averaging 8.6 yards per return. He also scored a touchdown on a return against Michigan last season.

4b) Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana (previous: N/A)

After the Martellus Bennett saga last season and with Richard Rodgers being a free agent, the Packers are in need of a pair of tight ends. I believe they should both sign one and draft one. Tight end is one of the toughest positions in football to step in and make an immediate impact, especially in the Packers offense. Thomas had a solid season for the Hoosiers, ending up third on the team with 376 yards receiving on 25 receptions. He is a big target who has solid speed for a guy his size. Thomas will need to improve his blocking, but he is capable of doing just that. The former Hoosier is a really raw prospect, but has the talent to make some noise and is well worth the risk at the end of the fourth round.

5a) Mike White, QB, Western Kentucky (previous: Austin Corbett)

The Brett Hundley experiment has failed thus far, and I expect the team to draft someone to come in and compete with Hundley. Ideally, the team finds a taker for Hundley and the Packers are able to trade him for something, but after what he showed (or didn’t show) last year, I doubt that will happen. I don’t see any way Green Bay does not try to sign a backup quarterback after what happened last year after the injury to Aaron Rodgers. White had poor protection at Western Kentucky, but still completed nearly 66 percent of his passes and threw 26 touchdowns and nearly 4,200 yards. The former pitcher, not surprisingly, has great arm strength, and is accurate as well. I am a fan of White’s, and I think he could be a steal in the fifth round.

5b) B.J. Hill, DL, North Carolina State (previous: N/A)

Last year, the reason the Philadelphia Eagles won the Super Bowl was mainly due to their tremendous defensive line. I expect Green Bay to draft a few defensive linemen. The Packers have had some luck finding solid players in the middle of the draft, including Mike Daniels, who was drafted in round four in 2012. Hill can come in and compete with Quinton Dial for a roster spot.

5c) Skyler Phillips, OG, Idaho State (previous: N/A)

Another depth pick for Green Bay. I expect the Packers to draft multiple offensive linemen. The depth was just not good last season, outside of Justin McCray. Phillips is really strong, particularly in the upper half. He can play either guard or center and would provide depth in the interior of the offensive line after drafting an offensive tackle on day two.

6a) Shaquem Griffin, OLB, UCF (previous: Jake Wieneke)

Many know his story, as he lost his left hand due to a rate prenatal condition, but that didn’t stop him from becoming one of the best pass rushers in college football. Following the move to outside linebacker, Griffin registered 18.5 sacks and 33.5 tackles for loss in two years. He has tremendous athletic ability and will not be outworked. However, the hand question will not go away. As a pass rushing outside linebacker, he would need to use his hands quite a bit. Griffin might have to drop some weight and go back to his old position of safety, where he does not have to use his hands quite as much.

6b) D’Montre Wade, CB, Murray State (previous: N/A)

Wade is a three-year starter at cornerback who has good size for the position. His ball skills were on display last season, picking off a career-high six passes. In 2016, he had 15 pass break-ups. He has speed and is a solid tackler as well. Wade was also the primary return man for the Racers, and the Packers need a return man in a big way. Coming from a smaller school, he will have to prove himself, perhaps more than most, as the competition is the biggest knock on small school players coming out of college. He is a developmental prospect, but could become a good one in time.

7a) Lowell Lotulelei, NT, Utah (previous: Drew Bailey)

Lotulelei is the brother of current Carolina Panthers defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. Lowell is a strong run stuffer who is not much of a pass rusher. He has talent, but is overweight and does not work hard enough to shed it. Lotulelei was very solid in 2016, but was a major disappointment this past year, which has pushed him down to this spot. If a team is able to flip his switch, he could become a solid player. But that’s a big if. In the seventh round, Lotulelei is worth the risk.

7b) Natrell Jamerson, S, Wisconsin (previous: Jamerson)

The former Wisconsin Badger transitioned to safety from cornerback this past year and looked like a natural. He is a little undersized for the position, which will push him down quite a bit. The Florida native had 3.5 tackles for loss and two picks this past season, including returning one back for a score against Northwestern. Jamerson was named the Defensive Most Valuable Player of the East-West Shrine Game after recovering a fumble and returning it for a touchdown. He started all 14 games this season and missed just one tackle in 811 defensive snaps this past season. Jamerson, like all other late round picks, will have to prove himself on special teams, and he has the speed to do just that. He also has returned kicks during his Wisconsin career, including returning one back to the house in 2015 at Maryland, which may help him make a roster.