Sunday, October 29, 2017

Wisconsin/Illinois review

Once again, the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers looked flat and bored, as they escaped Champagne with a 24-10 victory over Illinois. Before everyone jumps out and talks about how Wisconsin is certainly not a College Football Playoff contender, it is hard to avoid performances like that when you face teams you should roll over week after week. For instance, No. 8 Miami barely knocked off 1-7 North Carolina and needed a late Tar Heels fumble to do it. Bucky got the win, and that is all that matters. With the win, the Badgers improved to 8-0 and 5-0 in conference play, while Illinois falls to 2-6 overall and 0-5 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin improves to 11-1 in true road games under Paul Chryst and has won eight consecutive games against its rivals directly to the South. The Badgers have now won four straight road games against the Illini for the first time in school history. Wisconsin was without a number of key players today, including Jazz Peavy, Danny Davis and D’Cota Dixon. During the game, star freshman running back Jonathan Taylor injured his leg and missed the second half. Those are some big losses and the Badgers still found a way to come out of Champagne with a win. Wisconsin also has won Alex Hornibrook’s last 14 starts, the longest active streak in college football. It was not perfect, or even a pretty performance, but it was a win. To steal a line from the late, great Al Davis, “Just win, baby.” Bucky did just that yesterday.

I am going to start out by giving the game ball to cornerback Nick Nelson. The junior cornerback had four pass breakups on the day, and he has 14 on the year. The 14 ties him with Badgers greats Jamar Fletcher (2000) and current defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard (2002) for fourth most in a season. It is also tied for second nationally. He also had a poor pass interference call on him today. Two of his pass breakups came on third down, including one in the end zone that forced Illinois to settle for a field goal. He shut down D.J. Moore last week and did so again against the Illinois wide receivers. Admittedly, they are not the best group of receivers he will play this season, but he shut them down. The Badgers needed him and Derrick Tindal even more yesterday with the injury to Dixon, and Natrell Jamerson also missed time, although he did return. The only thing he is missing is an interception. I have a feeling that will come soon, though. I think it is about time people recognize him as one of the top cover corners in the nation.

In addition to Nelson, the defense played great once again, not allowing Illinois to score a touchdown until less than a minute was left and the game was out of reach. The Illini were just held to 211 yards of total offense until they went on a meaningless 75-yard touchdown drive at the end of the game. Wisconsin was able to force three Illinois turnovers, and the offense turned those into 14 points. The final takeaway by Leonhard’s crew was the Joe Ferguson pick when it looked like Illinois was going to cut it to 17-10. Instead, Ferguson picked it off and ran it up near midfield and Wisconsin scored several plays later on a Michael Dieter touchdown to give the Badgers a 24-3 lead. Nice 14-point swing there. Once again, whenever the defense was up against the wall, it came through. I mentioned the Ferguson pick to thwart a potential scoring drive for Illinois, but once again Hornibrook threw a pick in opponents territory that was returned into Wisconsin territory. But, the defense rose up and took the ball back on a fumble recovery. Wisconsin did not let Illinois get its passing game going, at all. The Illini quarterbacks were a combined just 9-of-31, a pathetic 29 percent completion percentage. The defense will have much bigger tests the rest of the year, but it is nice to see the unit put the clamps on a lesser opponent.

I want to give a shout out to the guys who performed when called upon. When Dixon was scratched just before gametime, Ferguson was called upon. He delivered a game-sealing interception to keep the score at 17-3 in the final quarter. Another is linebacker Tyler Johnson. The former high school quarterback only had three total tackles coming into the game, but he had two against Illinois, including a monster sack and forced fumble near midfield that Wisconsin recovered. The Badgers would cash in after the turnover with the game’s first points. Nicely done, Tyler. Also, Kendric Pryor had a big-time catch against Purdue that converted a third down, but Pryor led the team in receiving against the Illini filling in for the injured Jazz Peavy and Danny Davis. Pryor had a pair of catches for 37 yards, including one on a 3rd-and-6. The other was the opening play of the field goal drive to end the half. Not a bad job by Pryor. He has a future in this receiving core. And finally, yes....FAT GUY TOUCHDOWN!!!!! In an otherwise boring game, this was the highlight that will be played for years. I mentioned it a bit last paragraph, but Dieter’s touchdown was awesome. It does not happen much at all, seeing an offensive lineman catch a touchdown, but when it does, it is super awesome. Even as a Wisconsin fan, I admit this game made me want to take a nap, but I am glad I stuck it out and saw the whole game. What a great moment!

In my Maryland game review blog post, I challenged Wisconsin to have four or fewer penalties. The Badgers had exactly four. Nice job. The four penalties were for 50 yards, which is not great, though. I will say, though, the pass interference on Nelson was questionable at best. Without that, it is three penalties for 35 yards. Not bad at all. How about some love for Rafael Gaglianone as well? In the wind, Gaglianone knocked through a career-long 52-yard field goal, despite Lovie Smith calling three timeouts consecutively to try to ice the junior. With the make, he is now 8-for-10 on the year after missing the team’s final 11 games in 2016 due to a back injury. I’d say that field goal showed that Gaglianone is as confident as ever.

Now, the weather was a factor, but the offense was brutal, especially after Taylor left with an injury in the second quarter. Wisconsin’s first two possessions of the game were three-and-out, and the third one was too, but Bucky was bailed out by a flag on the punt, so Wisconsin got a free first down and proceeded to march down the field for the first points of the day. In the first half when the Badgers had Taylor for much of the half, Wisconsin rushed for 127 yards on 27 carries. In the second half, it was just 18 rushes for 41 yards. In total, the Badgers had just 303 yards of offense against a team allowing more than 400 yards of offense per game and giving up 30 points per game. Granted, half of the game he was going into a stiff breeze, but Hornibrook barely completed 50 percent of his passes for just 135 yards and the pick. Not good. The running game was okay, and the passing game was virtually non-existent. As the weather gets worse, the offense needs to step up and make some plays and not ask the defense to keep bailing them out.

I mentioned the quarterback a bit above, but man, Hornibrook was not sharp yesterday. Normally, even on rough days, he has his moments on third downs, but he struggled there as well. For the day, he went just 10-of-19 for 135 yards and the interception. That interception was in opponents territory again. Six of the last seven picks thrown by the sophomore quarterback have been thrown in opponents territory, and the only one that wasn’t was the pick six at Nebraska. Maybe some of that is due to the fact that two of his top three receivers are out, but some of his passes were just poor. For instance, on the interception, he had Troy Fumagalli wide open, but he underthrew him and it was an easy pick for Illinois’ Bennett Williams. He will need to have better days, as his competition will only get more difficult the rest of the way.

I don’t know how many were sat down because it was Illinois, but there were a number of key players who did not play. Jazz Peavy has taken a leave of absence from the team, so he is out indefinitely, but Danny Davis, D’Cota Dixon, Isaiahh Loudermilk and Chikwe Obasih all did not play. Obasih was in uniform, but did not play. I am guessing he’ll play in Bloomington next Saturday. Dixon practiced all week, but apparently was not good enough to play against Illinois. Loudermilk was ruled out early last week, so I doubt he plays against Indiana. Davis was questionable this week, so there is a chance he plays as well. However, the big one is the star freshman running back. Taylor left the game late in the second quarter in the win. The fact that he never went to the locker room is encouraging, but we won’t know the severity of the injury until at least Monday. Hopefully him being taken out was just precautionary and he’ll be good to go for the Hoosiers. Regardless, Wisconsin needs all these guys back if it wants to make a run at the conference championship and a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Lastly, Illinois was able to do quite a bit with quarterback Cam Thomas on the ground. The freshman ran 10 times for 78 yards. It is big because Ohio State came from behind to beat Penn State and the Buckeyes pose one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in the nation, J.T. Barrett. Thomas is a terrible passer and he still ran wild on Wisconsin, so that makes me cringe at the thought of Barrett going against this defense, and he actually can throw the forward pass effectively. Whenever he was in the game, I was pleading that they should not even bother defending the pass against him. Thomas completed as many passes to Wisconsin defenders as he did to his own team. Hopefully, that was needed in order to prepare for someone of Barrett’s caliber, as the Badgers had not faced a running quarterback up until Thomas.

It rarely has been pretty this season, but Bucky got it done again. The Badgers played their worst game of the season, but fortunately were playing a team that is winless in the conference. Wisconsin stays on the road next week, as Bucky travels to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers for the 11 am CST kick. The game will be televised on ABC.

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Wisconsin/Illinois preview

At 7-0, Wisconsin is off to its best start in 13 years, and the Badgers go on the road following a two-game homestand. To start off the two-game road trip, Bucky takes on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois, in the second season under Lovie Smith, is 2-5 overall and 0-4 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin won its last game 38-13 at home against Maryland, while Illinois fell on the road against Minnesota 24-17. In last year’s meeting between the two, the Badgers jumped out to a 21-3 first quarter lead en route to an easy 48-3 at Camp Randall Stadium. In the last meeting in Champagne, starting quarterback Joel Stave was knocked out with a concussion, so Bart Houston came in and led the Badgers to a 24-13 victory. It was an improvement for Alex Hornibrook last time around against the Terps, and he needs to build on that moving forward. The Badgers are the better team by a significant margin, so they will need to put Illinois away early. Lovie’s bunch has last seven consecutive conference games. The last conference win was a 31-27 victory over Michigan State in Champaign nearly a calendar year ago. Bucky will be looking for his eighth consecutive victory over the Illini. The last loss was a 31-26 defeat back in 2007 when Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 160 yards and a pair of scores to knock off No. 5 Wisconsin. The Badgers are once again ranked No. 5 this week.

When Wisconsin runs...

Once again, the Badgers had a nice running game against Maryland last Saturday, rushing for 215 yards and more than five yards per carry despite the Terrapins crowding the box. Illinois lost against Minnesota by allowing nearly 300 yards rushing. Even without Shannon Brooks, the Gophers duo of Rodney Smith and Kobe McCrary rushed for a combined 256 yards and six yards per carry. Minnesota passed for a total of 47 yards.....and won. That shows you how solid this Illinois defense is. On the season, the Fighting Illini are 108th in the country and the worst in the Big Ten in rush yards allowed per game. In the last two games against Minnesota and Rutgers, Illinois has allowed an average of 283 yards on the ground and has surrendered a total of six rushing touchdowns. Not good. I am sure this is a great game for the Illinois run defense to get right in. Jonathan Taylor is fourth in the country in rushing yards and is top 10 in the country in rushing touchdowns with 11. As a team, the Badgers are 16th in the country in rush yards per game at 256.9. Taylor should run all over Illinois and Bradrick Shaw and Rachid Ibrahim will get plenty of work against the team directly to the South as well. I think the Badgers shred Illinois for 300 yards on the ground. In order to try to stop Bucky on the ground, the Illini will put eight (and sometimes nine) in the box, so the play action pass could be open all game long.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Alex Hornibrook had one of his better games last week against Maryland, completing 16-of-24 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. His pick was ugly, but he showed resilience and bounced back nicely. For the first time in conference play, the freshman quarterback threw more touchdowns than interceptions, improving his ratio to five touchdowns and six picks in Big Ten play. Interestingly, Hornibrook has at least one touchdown pass and one interception in every conference game this season. Once again, Wisconsin will be without senior wide receiver Jazz Peavy, who will miss his third consecutive game this week. However, the Badgers still have top targets Quintez Cephus and Troy Fumagalli. The latter had a big game against the Terps with seven catches for 83 yards, his most catches and yards since Sept. 9 against Florida Atlantic. Freshman wide receiver Danny Davis missed the Maryland game and is questionable for the game this weekend. If he is out, two of the top three wide receivers will be out once again, so freshman Kendric Pryor and sophomore A.J. Taylor will have to step up once again. The Illini actually rank 41st in passing yards allowed per game, but that can be deceiving. They have allowed 13 touchdowns and have picked off six passes and rank 84th in opponents quarterback rating. If (or when) Illinois crowds the box to stop the run. Cephus and Fumagalli are more than capable of running free for big plays in the passing game. Taylor and Ibrahim could also be used in the pass attack as well. Illinois has sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times this season, which ranks 10th in the conference.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Illinois runs...

Illinois freshman running back Mike Epstein, who rushed for 346 yards and six yards per carry to start the season, is out for the season and fellow freshman Ra’Von Bonner has not had the same success. After taking over the lead running back role, Bonner has rushed for just 119 yards in two games and just 3.2 yards per carry. As a team, the Illini ranks 113th in the country and last in the Big Ten in rush yards per game and average just 3.7 yards per carry. However, in the last two weeks, since Epstein’s season-ending injury, Illinois is averaging just 103.5 rush yards per carry and 3.2 yards per carry. Despite allowing a season-high 143 yards against Maryland, the Badgers still rank fifth in the country in rush yards allowed per game at 88. The yards per carry for opponents is also just 2.9. Bucky also could get reinforcements, as Chikwe Obasih may make his return to the lineup. This should be a mismatch in Bucky’s favor. However, when freshman quarterback Cam Thomas plays, the Badgers will have to account for his legs.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Illinois passes...

The Illini have had their issues at quarterback this year. Three quarterbacks have played in recent games: Chayce Crouch, Jeff George Jr. and most recently, Thomas. George, who threw four interceptions in the first half in Madison last season, has thrown four touchdowns and seven interceptions in four games this season. George has also been picked off at least twice in three of the four games he has played in. He is the passer of the trio of quarterbacks used, but in addition to the seven picks thrown, he also has completed just 56 percent of his passes. Thomas made his debut last week against Minnesota and went 2-of-4 for 33 yards and a pick that was returned for the eventual deciding touchdown. However, Thomas did provide an element Wisconsin will have to account for that they don’t have to with George: his legs. Thomas rushed for 79 yards on 10 carries. Not only does Illini use multiple quarterbacks, but they could make the switch mid-possession, so the Badgers will have to be aware of that. As a team, Illinois is 96th in the country in passing yards per game, which is 10th in the Big Ten, and has thrown 12 interceptions, which is fourth to last in the country. The Badgers, on the other hand, excel at pass defense, allowing just 177.4 passing yards per game, which is 16th nationally. Nick Nelson and Co. just held one of the nation’s best, D.J. Moore, to three catches for 44 yards. I think Wisconsin should have little trouble once again. Although Illinois does have a few nice targets. Yet another freshman, Ricky Smalling, has caught 13 passes for 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns combined the last two weeks. Mike Dudek, who had more than 1,000 yards receiving in 2014 as a freshman, has lost his last two seasons due to a torn ACL. He missed the Minnesota game with an injury, but Illinois hopes to get him back this week. After missing two full seasons with bad luck, he is an easy guy to root for. Just not this week.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Both teams have reliable kickers. Illinois’ is Chase McLaughlin, who is 10-of-13 (77 percent) on the year with a long of 43. I will say it is pretty depressing if you’re an Illinois fan that he has as many field goals as extra points this season. Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 7-of-9 (78 percent) with a long of 46. The return units and punting units are pretty similar. Not a big edge, if any at all, for either team. Although, Illinois has blocked two field goal attempts and one extra point attempt.

Edge: Push

Overview

On paper, this should nothing more than a brisk walkthrough for the Badgers. Illinois is going young, playing a number of freshmen in key roles, and those players are taking their lumps. The Illini are last in scoring offense in the Big Ten, while the Badgers are second in scoring defense. Wisconsin is third in scoring offense, while the Illini are 12th in scoring defense. Wisconsin is first in both rush offense and rush defense, while Illinois is last in the conference in both categories. This could get ugly. However, Wisconsin will still need to work on things, such as taking care of the football and keeping the number of penalties low. Illinois will have trouble getting off the field, much like Maryland did. Illinois is 13th in third down defense and Wisconsin is far and away tops in the Big Ten in that category. I see many backups getting plenty of playing time on Saturday.

Prediction: Wisconsin 38, Illinois 10

Sunday, October 22, 2017

Maryland/Wisconsin review

The No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers overcame a slow start to knock off Maryland 38-13 Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium. Wisconsin improves to 7-0 for the first time since 2004 when it started 9-0. The Badgers are now 4-0 in conference, and with a 17-10 loss by Iowa to Northwestern, they are essentially three games up on every other team in the division. This is also the 10th consecutive regular season conference win, the longest streak in school history. Maryland falls to 3-4 with a 1-3 record in Big Ten play. On Maryland’s first possession, T.J. Edwards picked off Max Bortenschlager and returned it 54 yards to the house for the Badgers touchdown. Edwards, who missed the second half last week after being ejected for targeting late in the first half, gave the Badgers their fourth pick six on the year. Wisconsin once again won the yardage by a wide margin, even being without two of its top three wide receivers. Jonathan Taylor was once again very good, although he had a “bad game” by his standards. Taylor carried the ball 22 times for 126 yards and a score. As a team, the Badgers rushed for 215 yards and averaged more than five yards per carry. Alex Hornibrook also played well against the Terps, completing 16 of 24 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns with one pick. He was especially good after his early bad interception. After the pick, he completed 15 of 22 for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Whenever the Badgers needed a big play, he provided it. Wisconsin had a number of mistakes early on that kept it from blowing the game open early, so it is great to think what the team could be if it can eliminate the little mistakes. But I will take a 25-point win in which most think the Badgers did not play a great game.

Normally, I’d start with Taylor in the positives department, but this time, I need to start with Nick Nelson. Coming into the game, Maryland’s D.J. Moore led the Big Ten in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Nelson held the the star to just three catches for 44 yards and kept him out of the end zone. That is only the second time this year that Moore was held under 80 yards receiving and at least one touchdown. He had just six yards on two catches before grabbing a 38-yard pass late in the third quarter. Derrick Tindal also matched up against Moore some and did well as well. That 38-yard pass was also not against Tindal/Nelson, but against a combination of safeties Natrell Jamerson and D'Cota Dixon. The junior cornerback had a stupid penalty to give the Terrapins a first down and a poor tackling attempt on a Maryland fourth down that helped the Terps get the first down, but overall had a great game. The pressure, especially early in the game, affected Maryland’s passing attack. I said Moore had to have a great day in order for Maryland to have a chance, and he didn’t. It was a tremendous effort by Nelson to shut Moore down.

Another game, another very good performance by Taylor. He did not have any big runs like he had in previous weeks, but he was able to grind out 126 yards and more than five yards per carry. The true freshman lacked big runs, which is why he didn't have another 200-yard day, but he was consistently gaining five, six, seven yards. It was a very workmanlike effort from Taylor, as even though he averaged 5.7 yards per carry, his longest run was only 15 yards. The way he can break tackles is incredible. He constantly turns negative yardage or short yardage plays into positive plays for Bucky. With his performance in the win, he is the sixth freshman running back to run for 1,000 yards in his first seven games. The list he joined includes NFL Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith and Marshall Faulk and future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson. That list also includes former Wisconsin standout P.J. Hill. I am running out of adjectives to describe the tremendous freshman. Even when Maryland stacks the box, Taylor was able to grind out 126 yards and nearly six yards per carry. He is the fastest Badgers freshman to hit the 1,000-yard mark in terms of carries. He beat James White’s previous record by eight. Among all players, Taylor is second to Melvin Gordon, who accomplished the feat in 104 carries.

As a unit, the defense was impressive once again. Even without two of its top three defensive ends and losing starting linebacker Chris Orr during the game, the Badgers defense held Maryland to 268 yards of total offense, its third lowest output this season. I mentioned how great the Badgers played against Moore, but the pass defense as a whole was tremendous. Bortenschlager was just 13-of-30 for 125 yards for just 4.2 yards per attempt. In contrast, Hornibrook’s yards per attempt was 9.4. No Terrapins wide receiver broke 50 yards receiving, and Wisconsin was able to bring down Bortenschlager a pair of times at big points in the game. The first time was Olive Sagapolu bringing down the Maryland quarterback two plays before Edwards’ pick six and after Maryland started its first drive running the ball well. The Sagapolu sack forced the Terps to pass and the Edwards pick six was a result of having to throw the ball. Finally, this defense amazes me when being backed up. Once again, the Wisconsin offense turned the ball over deep in its own territory, as Taylor fumbled at his own five. The three plays following the sudden change gained no yards, including two passes intended for Moore, and the Terps settled for a field goal to cut it to 7-3. The Badgers scored on their next two possessions to make it 21-3 heading into the break. Wisconsin has turned the ball over nine times in Big Ten play (I said that in an Ed Rooney voice) and has allowed only 16 points off those nine turnovers, and seven of those came on the pick six against Nebraska. Out of those other eight turnovers, three started inside Wisconsin territory and two inside the 25. Still, no touchdowns allowed. Kudos to the defense.

Let’s give some props to kickoff man Zach Hintze. The kickoff man was a big weapon against Maryland’s return game. The Terps came in 25th in the country in kickoff return average at 24 yards per return, but Hintze made sure the return game of the visitors would not be a factor. In his seven kickoffs, Hintze booted four touchbacks and the three that were returned went for an average of just over 20 per and the Terps fumbled one of the returns. Well done by Hintze. As good as Maryland’s return units are, the Badgers completely took them out of the game.

Now, for some negatives. I will spare Hornibrook because he played really well outside of the bad interception early in the game. However, the mistakes seemingly happen every game. Earlier, I mentioned the Badgers have turned the ball over nine times in Big Ten play (four games). That is just too many. Many of them either put the defense in a bad spot or took points off the board. Hornibrook’s interception was terrible. He overthrew A.J. Taylor by a good five yards and it was returned across the Maryland 40. If a better throw was made, the Badgers would have picked up a first down and may have scored on that possession. Then, Taylor fumbled at his own five. Fortunately, Wisconsin’s defense stood tall and held the Terrapins to a field goal. For as good as the freshman is, he has a tendency to put the ball on the ground. That was his third lost fumble on the year, and they seem to come at terrible times. Obviously, it is never good to lose a fumble, but the last two fumbles could have been killers. Last week, he fumbled against Purdue when Wisconsin was driving in an attempt to take a two score lead.

In addition to the turnovers, Wisconsin has also been hurt by penalties this year, especially mental flags like false starts. The Badgers have a good offense, but they cannot afford to keep falling behind the chains. It may work against the Marylands and Northwesterns of the world, but it won’t against whichever team the Badgers play in Indianapolis. It will need to be cleaned up. Wisconsin had six flags thrown on it in the game, and most could be avoided. One was a questionable clipping call that wiped away a Taylor touchdown. Fortunately, Wisconsin overcame that one and was able to score a touchdown anyway. Two of the penalties were false starts. Easily avoidable. One was a defensive pass interference on D’Cota Dixon, who should have let Moore catch the ball and just wrap up because Moore was short of the first down. I mentioned the stupid unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Nelson. He should have been smarter than that. Paul Chryst needs to clean that up. I challenge Wisconsin to have four or fewer penalties at Illinois next weekend. Also, the Badgers had a botched center-quarterback exchange. Even though they won by 25 even with all those mistakes, the sky is the limit if they limit them.

Maybe it was being without both Chikwe Obasih (even though he has been out for virtually the entire year) and Isaiahh Loudermilk. Maybe it was being without Chris Orr for a good portion of the game. Maybe it was a spread offense it wasn’t familar with. I don’t know, but Maryland ran the ball effectively against the front of Wisconsin. Yes, most of the damage came in the second half after Wisconsin went up 28-3, but still. Hopefully the Badgers can clean that up heading to Champagne next week. Bucky came in fourth in the country in rush yards allowed per game, allowing just 78.8 and 2.7 yards per carry. Against Maryland, the Badgers allowed a season-high 143 rushing yards. To make it worse, Maryland’s top two running backs, Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison III combined to rush for 147 yards on 28 carries for an average of 5.3 yards per carry. That will need to be cleaned up moving forward. Hopefully it is just due to the injured players and nothing more. We’ll see in a few weeks.

This one was a nice win, much-improved from last week. However, there is much to work on. But, like every week, survive and advance. As long as they win, they are in good shape. It is sort of like the NCAA Tournament where every week matters and it does not matter how pretty it is. After two consecutive home games, the Badgers take their show on the road next week, as they have a virtual bye week next week against Illinois. The game is at 11 am CST and will be televised on MSESPN. Wisconsin is 10-1 in true road games under Chryst.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Maryland/Wisconsin preview

After an ugly win over Purdue, No. 5 Wisconsin stays at home and welcomes the Maryland Terrapins to Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday. The Badgers come in at 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Big Ten, while Maryland is 3-3 with a record of 1-2 in conference play. After a solid start to the season with a big win at Texas and an annihilation of Towson, the Terps have lost three of four with all losses by at least 16. Their only win in that stretch was at Minnesota and the Gophers are winless in conference play. Wisconsin is 2-0 all-time against Maryland, winning the matchup in Madison 52-7 in 2014. The last time these two teams met, Wisconsin held on for a 31-24 win in College Park in 2015. The leading rusher for the Badgers was none other than linebacker Joe Schobert, who had a 57-yard run on a fake punt. Maryland needs this win in an effort to become bowl eligible, as it has four of its final six games against teams currently ranked, including the last three.

When Wisconsin runs...

Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the country, while running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Taylor is sixth in the country in rushing yards and averages 7.8 yards per carry. He has three carries of at least 60 yards this season, including one in each of the last two weeks. The freshman phenom has also rushed for at least 200 yards in each of the last two weeks and has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season, and has at least two in three of the six games. After last week’s 295-yard effort, Wisconsin has climbed up to 13th in the country in rushing yards per game. Bucky could make hay on the ground again once again, as the Terps are the No. 82 ranked run defense in terms of yards per game allowed, allowing 174.3. That average has shot up the last two weeks, allowing an average of 256 rushing yards per game. This past week, Maryland allowed Northwestern’s Justin Jackson to run for 171 yards and a pair of scores. Taylor has a much better offensive line to run behind than Jackson. I foresee another 200-yard rushing performance from Taylor. Shaw will also get in on the action, and I think he will also have a nice game.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Quarterback Alex Hornibrook had an okay game against Purdue. He started out hot, but then made just enough mistakes to keep the Boilermakers in the game. Wisconsin missed Jazz Peavy last week, and he may be back this week, but is questionable and could miss his second consecutive week. The Badgers still have Quintez Cephus, who has emerged as Hornibrook’s favorite target, especially on third down. The sophomore wideout had 100 yards receiving against Purdue and was just graded as the 15th best receiver through seven weeks by Pro Football Focus. In addition to Cephus, the Badgers still have one of the best tight ends in college football, Troy Fumagalli. Hornibrook needs to improve, though. He was not terrible against Purdue, but made a few mistakes to let the Boilermakers stay in the game. After having at least 200 yards passing in all three non-conference games, the sophomore quarterback has not hit the 200-yard passing mark in any of the Big Ten games so far, granted he has been in the high 190s twice. If he is able to throw for at least 200 yards against Maryland, the Terps don’t have a chance. In yards per game, Maryland is 108th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, but is toward the middle in opponents quarterback rating and has seven picks on the season. However, the Terrapins struggle rushing the passer, having sacked opposing quarterbacks just 10 times in six games. When Hornibrook has time, he can shred defenses. He could do that this week, especially if Peavy is back.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Maryland runs...

This season, Maryland running back Ty Johnson is averaging 7.2 yards per carry, but does not carry the ball all that often (68 attempts). Johnson is coming off his worst game, rushing just 10 times for 20 yards in the home loss to Northwestern this past Saturday. As a team, Maryland is 57th in rushing yards per game. The 16 sacks allowed this season has something to do with that, though. Even though Maryland is down to its third string quarterback, teams cannot crowd the box due to wide receiver D.J. Moore, one of the best receivers in the country. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is fourth in the country in rush yards allowed per game at less than 80 and also have a terrific 2.7 yards per attempt. The Badgers have just allowed two rushing touchdowns on the year and none in the past four games. Isaiahh Loudermilk is questionable and could be a loss for the Badgers defensive line with Chikwe Obasih already out.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Maryland passes...

This will be a very interesting matchup. Maryland is on its third string quarterback, sophomore Max Bortenschlager. The sophomore has not done too poorly, considering the circumstances. He was really solid against Minnesota before struggling the past two weeks, including against Ohio State in which he got injured. In Big Ten play, he has taken care of the ball, throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions. The one bad thing for him is that his completion percentage has not been good. He was tremendous against the Gophers, having a 64 percent completion percentage and two touchdowns, but in the two games since, he just has a 40 percent completion percentage. He does have three touchdown passes and no picks, but the Terps have lost both games by a wide margin. What he does have at his disposal is one of the most dynamic wide receivers in college football, D.J. Moore. He is basically Maryland’s entire offense. The Terrapins have thrown for 966 yards, which ranks 116th, and have thrown 10 touchdowns. Moore is 11th in the country in receiving yards with 624 (64.5 percent of Maryland’s receiving yards) and seven touchdowns (70 percent of receiving touchdowns). The junior is coming off a game in which he had 12 catches for 210 yards and a pair of scores. He has at least one score in each game, except for the loss in Columbus. Moore only had two catches for 11 yards in that one, and not surprisingly, Maryland was destroyed 62-14. He has at least seven catches in every game except for that Ohio State game. Wisconsin will not shut him down like Ohio State did, but the Badgers will need to slow him down and not let him run wild like he did last week. Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal have their work cut out for them. Wisconsin should be able to pressure Bortenschlager, as the Terps have allowed 16 sacks so far, only ahead of Northwestern and Purdue in the Big Ten.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Wisconsin will have a big task containing Maryland’s return units. Johnson is averaging an impressive 27.4 yards per kick return, including a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the loss to Ohio State. Moore is fourth in the Big Ten in punt return average at 13.6 yards per return, so Hintze and Lotti will need to help keep their returns minimal. Hintze is 12th in the country in kickoff touchback percentage at 75 percent, so he has a chance to keep Johnson from returning many kicks. Maryland kicker Henry Darmstadter has only had three opportunities this year after transferring from Georgetown, making two. He was 8-of-10 last season for the Hoyas with a long of 49. Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 6-of-7 this year with a long of 46, which he made last game against Purdue. Wisconsin is a non-factor returning kicks, which is why it mostly decides to take touchbacks. Maryland does have a tendency to allow big punt returns, so Nick Nelson has a chance to bust one.

Edge: Maryland

Overview

Wisconsin should win going away, just like Northwestern and Ohio State the previous two weeks against these Terps. Bucky should be able to slow down Maryland’s high-powered offense and the Badgers should be to score at will against the Terrapins defense. Taylor should have a great day, and I believe Hornibrook will have a nice day with 200 yards and multiple touchdowns. Maryland does have a +5 turnover differential, so Wisconsin will need to take care of the ball, or else an upset could take place. Expect the Badgers to own the time of possession, like normal. Maryland is 107th in the country, where as Wisconsin is third. One other major advantage Bucky does have is on third down, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, Maryland converts third downs at a 29.3 percent clip, which is 123rd in the country, while Wisconsin allows only 30 percent on third downs, which is 20th. It is even more lopsided while the Badgers are on offense, as they convert an incredible 54 percent of third downs, which is third in the country. The Terps, on the other hand, give up third down conversions at a 47.4 percent rate, which is 121st. In order to win the game, Maryland will obviously need to get the Wisconsin offense off the field. It will be a tough one for the Terps defense.

Prediction: Wisconsin 41, Maryland 20

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Purdue/Wisconsin review

It was an ugly game, but Wisconsin survived and advanced in a 17-9 victory over Purdue Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium. Despite outgaining the Boilermakers 494-221, the Badgers turned the ball over three times and were penalized eight times, which kept the visitors in the game. Wisconsin is now 6-0 overall and 3-0 in conference play, while Purdue falls to 3-3 and 1-2 in Big Ten play. Even with the modest 3-3 record, Purdue has shown the ability to be able to play with the big boys. The Badgers are shooting for something bigger, but with the win, they became bowl eligible for the 16th consecutive year. Bucky won ugly, yes, but after four top 10 teams were upset this weekend, I am happy with any win. The Boilers will be a force toward the end of the year. Jonathan Taylor once again had a great game, and the defense kept Purdue out of the end zone, despite constantly having to defend a short field. Wide receiver Quintez Cephus continued his nice year to start, with five catches for a career-high 100 yards and a score. Wisconsin dominated the stats, including nearly doubling Purdue up in time of possession. For the first time this season, the Badgers were outscored in the second half, as they lost that half 3-0. Still, the Wisconsin defense has only allowed 17 points in the second half this season (24 total second half points allowed by the Badgers). With the win, the Badgers extended their winning streak over the Boilermakers to 12 straight, which is Purdue's longest losing streak in its history to any team. Also, with Nebraska’s loss to Ohio State, Wisconsin is two games up on four teams in the Big Ten West and has already beaten three of those teams head-to-head.

Taylor, like I mentioned, was one of the biggest positives from this game. The freshman finished with a career-high 30 carries for 219 yards and a score. His touchdown came on the third play of the game when he raced 67 yards to give the Badgers the early 7-0 lead. As good as Bradrick Shaw is, you could see quite a difference between the two when Taylor went out. I think it was Mark Tauscher brought it up on the Wisconsin radio broadcast that if a play was blocked for three yards, Shaw would gain three yards. He was making a reference that even if a play is blocked poorly, Taylor would find a way to make something positive happen. This is his third day of at least 200 yards in his first six games and his second in as many weeks. He now has 986 yards on the ground so far, falling just 14 yards shy of becoming the first true freshman ever to reach 1,000 yards in his first six games. Barring injury, he will tie a number of players, including former Wisconsin running back P.J. Hill, in reaching 1,000 in his first seven games as a true freshman. He could legitimately reach 2,000 yards. Taylor and his offensive line are just that good.

Without Jazz Peavy, Cephus has shown his potential going forward. The sophomore had five catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. All five of Cephus’ catches went for either a first down or a touchdown, and all five needed at least seven for that first down. His big play ability came through again, as he caught a 41-yard pass from Alex Hornibrook down to the Purdue five. It should have set up a potential knockout punch, but Taylor would fumble two plays later and the Boilermakers kept the deficit at eight points. After catching just four passes for 94 yards last season as a freshman, he has become Hornibrook’s most reliable target in 2017. In the six games, he has caught 23 passes for 401 yards and has scored five of Hornibrook’s 11 touchdown passes. Cephus has a catch of at least 30 yards in four of the six games. Since conference play started, he has turned it up a notch. In the three non-conference games, Cephus caught an average of 3.3 passes per game for an average of nearly 45 yards per. However, in conference play, he has an average of more than four catches per game for an average of 89 yards per. He has also caught a touchdown in his past two games and has become one of the better receivers in the conference, and he is just another weapon at Hornibrook’s disposal.

The defense was tremendous once again. This is the fourth opponent in the last five to be held under 250 yards of total offense. The unit was constantly put into tough situations due to turnovers and the blocked punt. In the game, the Purdue offense started drives at the Wisconsin 44, 15 and 28 and came away with a total of three points off those drives. In addition to the 221 yards of offense given up, the Badgers also had three big sacks in the game and one monster interception. With Bucky holding on for dear life with a 17-9 lead and Purdue having the ball inside the 10, senior linebacker Leon Jacobs picked off Elijah Sindelar. After the pick, the Badgers held the ball the final 8:14 in moving 77 yards in 16 plays to seal the deal. That is a Wisconsin drive. Jacobs had a big game outside of just the big pick. He had nine tackles (0.5 TFL) and a quarterback hurry. This season, this stingy unit has allowed just 17 points defensively in the second half, and 14 of those were in one game against Northwestern. the halftime adjustments made by defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard have been tremendous. Next week, the pass defense will face a big test with D.J. Moore and Maryland coming to town.

And lastly, some of the lesser known players made huge plays down the stretch. With Wisconsin trying to chew up the clock, redshirt freshman wide receiver Kendric Pryor made one of the biggest plays of the game. Pryor had played well during the spring, but a moped accident caused him to miss the first few weeks of the season. After true freshman wide receiver Danny Davis had to leave the game, Pryor made his mark. With the Badgers facing a 3rd-and-12 at their own 11, Hornibrook found Pryor for 20 yards and a huge first down. Not only did Wisconsin pick up a monster first down and was able to chew up more clock, but the catch moved Bucky out from the shadow of his own goal post. Another late game star was freshman running back Garrett Groshek. The freshman picked up a pair of first downs, including one on an 18-yard gain on 2nd-and-11 to move the sticks and move his team into enemy territory. In the game, he had just two carries, but for 32 of the 77 yards on the drive and two giant first downs which helped the Badgers bleed the rest of the clock.

In an ugly game, there are always plenty of negatives. For the first part of the game, I thought this was going to be a great performance from Hornibrook. He made some great throws and threw a nice ball to Cephus in the end zone for a touchdown. But then it went all downhill. Up until his first interception, the sophomore signal caller was 5-of-6 for 80 yards and a touchdown. After that, he went just 8-of-12 for 119 yards and two picks. His 72 percent completion percentage for the game was very solid, but he has to eliminate the mistakes. His first interception may have been on Davis, his freshman receiver. It looked like he ran the wrong route and Hornibrook threw where he thought Davis was going to be, but it was easily picked off by Purdue’s Da’Wan Hunte, who returned it to the Wisconsin 44. His second interception should not have been thrown. With the Badgers facing a 3rd-and-12 at the Boilermakers 31, Hornibrook tried to run a screen. However, the Purdue defense diagnosed it beautifully and was all over it. Instead of just throwing it into the ground, Hornibrook tried to fit it in to running back Rachid Ibrahim, but the running back bobbled it and the ball was picked off by Purdue’s Danny Ezechukwu, who returned it deep in Wisconsin territory. Credit to the Badgers quarterback, though, who ran him out of bounds at the Wisconsin 28. Instead of Purdue cutting it to four or three points, the Boilermakers were held to a field goal to cut it to 17-9. Alas, that pass should never have been attempted. Even if Ibrahim caught it, he would have been stopped at the line of scrimmage. Hornibrook should have just thrown it at the feet of Ibrahim and trotted out Gaglianone for a long field goal. With Purdue’s offense struggling all game long, there is no way he should have tried throwing that pass into traffic. Other than that, he was solid, but he needed to find a way to get Troy Fumagalli the football. Fumagalli is one of, if not the best tight end in the country and there is no way he should go an entire game without a catch or even a target. These are things that could, and will, get corrected moving forward. He needs to have a better day against Maryland next Saturday.

Wisconsin had some uncharacteristic miscues against Purdue. I mentioned the two interceptions that may have cost the Badgers some points, but Taylor also had a fumble at the Purdue five that cost Bucky a two score lead. Fortunately, the defense was up to the challenge and turned away the Boilermakers every time the Badgers offense made a costly mistake. It has become a theme that Wisconsin keeps winning comfortably in the yardage department, but the score is closer than it should have been. It may not cost Wisconsin a win against Maryland or Illinois, but the Badgers will need to do a better job at finishing drives in the final six games, but especially the final four. Also, Wisconsin had a punt blocked in which Purdue’s Garrett Hudson came in uncontested on Anthony Lotti to easily block the punt. It was the first blocked punt against Wisconsin since Ryan Shazier did it for Ohio State against the Badgers in 2011. Luckily for Bucky, Race Johnson, who picked up the block and returned it to the 15, but probably would have scored if not for getting injured and falling to the ground. I will chalk that up to just a fluke play, but hopefully it does not happen again this year.

The Badgers had eight penalties in the game. That will need to be corrected moving forward. Wisconsin was able to overcome some of the penalties, but it can’t make it a habit being consistently behind the chains. On three of the false starts, the Badgers followed them up with a nice first down completion. However, you knew some would bite them. On Purdue’s first field goal drive, Wisconsin had Purdue stopped, but Jacobs held Purdue tight end Cole Herdman, who ran a route that wasn’t even long enough for a first down. That led to a Boilermakers field goal to cut it to 14-3. Wisconsin also had a first down wiped away due to an illegal block in the back on Ibrahim after Cephus already had the first down inside the Purdue 20. Then, a few plays after the block in the back penalty, the Badgers had a false start penalty that did come back to haunt. Instead of a 3rd-and-7 in scoring range at the 26, Hornibrook threw the screen that was picked off and returned deep into Wisconsin territory. The Badgers will need to clean this up, as this is not an offense that can afford to fall too far behind the chains.

Like I said in the open, it was not pretty, but the Badgers got the job done. Wisconsin dominated the stats, but had enough mistakes to keep Purdue in the game. With four top 10 teams losing this weekend to teams that most would consider average at best, I will take a win in a game Bucky did not play his best. Wisconsin stays home this next week as the Badgers welcome the Maryland Terrapins to Camp Randall Stadium for an 11 am CST kick. The Homecoming game will be televised on FOX.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Camp Randall 100

Over the few months prior to the season opener, the Wisconsin Badgers unveiled a list of the 100 people who shaped the first century of Camp Randall Stadium. Tomorrow, the University of Wisconsin invited all of the living members of the countdown to the game against Purdue to commemorate them. The Badgers have been asking people for their submissions to share their favorite memories at Camp Randall. That got me to start thinking of my favorite moments. I have only been to Camp Randall three times, but that did not stop me from bringing up some of my favorite Camp Randall moments while sitting at home.

Now, I admit, I have been spoiled. I was born in 1989, and Barry Alvarez was hired just six and a half months after I entered this Earth. For virtually my entire life, Wisconsin has been one of the top programs in the Big Ten. One of my favorite quotes ever was when Alvarez said during his introductory press conference “You better get season tickets right now, because before long, you probably won’t be able to.” Talk about calling your shot!

Now, back to my favorite moments at Camp Randall. There have been too many memories for me to count. My first game I remember watching was the 1998 Outback Bowl loss to Georgia. Ouch! My first distinct memory was in 2000 when my dad bought he and I tickets to Senior Day against Minnesota. After the Gophers took a 12-3 lead, I was on the verge of tears and told my dad I wanted to go home. Good thing we stayed, as we watched the Badgers come back to win 41-20. Going right up near the field to watch warm-ups was really cool. Seeing my favorite players, Jamar Fletcher and Chris Chambers, stretching before the game in person was incredible. I even was able to see one of the more funny moments I can remember at Camp Randall....”The Unertl Drive.” It was hilarious hearing Mike Mahnke announce the carry was by “Matt Uuuuuuuunertl” and then having the crowd echo it. Of course, seeing the Badgers win the axe was fantastic as well.

I was also able to see Wisconsin win the axe again in 2008 with two of my friends. sitting in a Gophers section was tough, and they were pretty bad in the first half as Minnesota took a 21-7 lead into the break. But I got the last laugh, though, as Wisconsin came back and won 35-32 on the strength of the duo of P.J. Hill and John Clay and a tremendous defensive effort. Amazingly, that was the last time I have been to the Camp.

I am not going to limit this to just games I went to, though, as I have only been to three there, and one did not go well. The great thing about all these moments is that I can remember all these moments like they were yesterday, and can remember what I was doing when these games took place. I admit, I did not think Wisconsin was going to beat Ohio State in 2003, so when the game was closing, I reached to the sky and said “I can’t believe this is happening!” That Schabert-to-Evans play ranks right up there in my favorite plays of all-time.

In addition to those, I mean, who could forget Gilreath’s return against No. 1 Ohio State? Or Stocco’s QB draw to beat Michigan for the first time since 1994? Or Melvin Gordon rushing for 408 yards? Or the Dayne Game? All great memories that I will never forget where I was when they happened. Of course, there was Wisconsin football before I was born. Obviously, I was not able to see Jeff Mack’s touchdown reception from Gregg Bohlig to beat Nebraska or the upset of No. 1 Michigan in 1981 or the Randy Marks winning touchdown against Iowa in 1969 to end the 23-game winless streak, but they deserve a mention.

I could go on and on about the terrific moments at this place. Any mention of Camp Randall has to mention the incredible fans in the venue. The Badgers mean everything to the city of Madison. It is amazing to see the fans have so much fun during the game, whether it is the crowd singing “Build Me Up Buttercup” in unison or doing the “Jump Around” between the third and fourth quarters. The crowd is electric and has made this stadium one of the toughest venues in college football to play in.

In speaking of “Jump Around,” that has been mentioned a number of times by people as their top moment. As a young Wisconsin fan game at the game in 2000, I had no idea what was going on, since I had no idea of the young tradition at that time. But now, whenever I hear that song, I immediately think Wisconsin football. I mean, how could you not?

Those are only a few of the countless memories and moments in the history of this great stadium. I have not even mentioned half of the great games at Camp Randall. Here’s to another 100 years at this place.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Purdue/Wisconsin preview

Following a big win in Lincoln last Saturday, the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers welcome the surprising Purdue Boilermakers to Madison. Purdue, which finished 3-9 a season ago, has already matched that win total with a 3-2 start to this season. The Boilermakers are coming off a comeback 31-17 victory over Minnesota and are 1-1 to start Big Ten play. Wisconsin is 2-0 in Big Ten play and can further distance itself from the rest of the pack in the Big Ten West with a victory. A season ago, Purdue held a 3-0 lead after one quarter in West Lafayette before Wisconsin woke up and rolled the Boilers 49-20. Wisconsin has won 11 consecutive games against Purdue, dating back to 2004. In that game, Scott Starks basically killed Purdue football by returning a Kyle Orton fumble 40 yards for a touchdown to give Bucky the marquee 20-17 win in West Lafayette. From that point forward, Boilermakers football has never been the same. Jeff Brohm is trying to get the program back on track and is off to a fine start.

When Wisconsin runs...

Freshman running back Jonathan Taylor ran through Nebraska for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 38-17 win in Lincoln this past Saturday. With the performance, Taylor is now seventh in the nation in rushing (sixth among running backs) and fourth in rush yards per game. The Badgers, as a team, are now 16th. The fabulous frosh has a chance to keep it rolling against a team that comes in 66th in rush yards per game allowed. Purdue has struggled a bit defending the run in Big Ten play, allowing 183 rushing yards per game. They have also been susceptible to the big run, as they have given up three runs of at least 40 yards in the two games. Taylor has 20 carries of at least 10 yards this season. I would bet on him breaking a big one at some point on Saturday. Purdue linebacker T.J. McCollum leads the team in tackles, but was injured in the Minnesota game and his status for the game in unclear. Their depth also has taken a hit, as reserve defensive tackle Keiwan Jones was also injured against the Gophers and will be out. I am assuming safety Jacob Thieneman will playing in the box quite a bit, so they will take a chance and force Alex Hornibrook to beat them. Many teams try that strategy, but few have succeeded.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Hornibrook is incredibly frustrating. He looked so good against BYU, but has looked shaky at best in the first Big Ten games this season. The sophomore has weapons all around, including one of the best tight ends in the nation, Troy Fumagalli, and up-and-coming big-time receiver Quintez Cephus. That is what makes his struggles even more maddening. Having Fumagalli back is a huge plus, as he opens things up for other receivers. He was on the field against Nebraska, but didn’t seem like he was at full strength after missing the conference opener against Northwestern. The star tight end is back near full strength and I think he will have a big day. Purdue will sell out to stop the run and I think Fumagalli will have at least eight catches for 100 yards and a score. Purdue also has only five sacks in five games this season, so if Hornibrook is blitzed and the offensive line picks it up well, the Badgers will have plenty of chances to connect on some big plays in the passing game as well. Like always, Alex will need to make some plays in the passing game. If he doesn’t, then it could be a dog fight. I think he will have a nice game, though.

Edge: Push

When Purdue runs the ball...

It sounds like Purdue’s leading rusher, sophomore Tario Fuller, will miss his second straight game on Saturday. Junior D.J. Knox had a season-high seven carries for 56 yards against Minnesota. He had 409 yards rushing two years ago for the Boilers and is averaging nearly six yards per carry this season, but has only carried it 21 times. After being out since week one with an injury, Markell Jones carried the ball 12 times for 52 yards and the winning score. As a team, Purdue is 94th in rush yards per game, but much of that is due to sacks. They have a decent running game, but most of their yards came against overmatched Ohio and Missouri teams. Against Louisville and Michigan, the Boilers rushed for a total of just 81 yards on 41 carries. Last year, Jones was just held to 30 yards on eight carries against the ferocious Badgers defense. This year, Wisconsin is once again one of the top ranked rush defenses in the country. Despite letting Nebraska’s Devine Ozigbo rush for 112 yards, Bucky’s run defense still ranks fourth in the country, allowing just 81 yards on the ground per game. If Wisconsin can shut down Purdue on the ground and force it to try to beat Bucky through the air, the Badgers will win easily.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Purdue passes the ball...

Purdue has gone with the hot hand at quarterback this year. David Blough has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes, but tends to throw it into coverage quite a bit. He has seven touchdowns and four interceptions after throwing 21 picks last year, which led the country. Elijah Sindelar has thrown with less accuracy, but has taken care of the ball more. Purdue does not have much of a deep threat, but does have a very good redshirt freshman receiver by the name of Jackson Anthrop, the brother of former Purdue wide receiver Danny Anthrop. The younger one leads the Boilermakers in catches with 21 for 207 yards. He also has four scores. Tight end Cole Herdman leads the team in receiving yards with 243, but only has 10 catches. He will still need to be watched closely with his gaudy 24.3 yards per catch. The Purdue quarterbacks spread the ball around quite a bit, as six Boilermakers have at least 10 catches on the season. The depth of the secondary will be tested for Wisconsin. I think the Badgers are up to the challenge, though. Wisconsin is currently 26th in the country in passing yards allowed per game and 20th in opponents quarterback rating. The Badgers have a terrific cornerback duo of Derrick Tindal and Nick Nelson, and Dontye Carriere-Williams is coming into his own as well. Purdue has given up 17 sacks, which is 122nd in the country in sacks allowed per game. Wisconsin has sacked opposing quarterbacks 17 times, which is 14th in the country, but eight of them came in one game against Northwestern two weeks ago. If the Badgers can get some pressure on Purdue quarterbacks, they can force them into mistakes and give Bucky’s offense a short field to work with.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Wisconsin clearly has the edge at kicker, as Rafael Gaglianone is one of the most solid kickers in the conference. The junior is 5-of-6 with a long of 37, which he hit against Nebraska. Purdue, on the other hand, struggles mightily at kicker. The two kickers, J.D. Dellinger and Spencer Evans, are a combined 5-of-9. After starting out 2-of-2, Evans has missed his last two, although both were long attempts. Joe Schopper is a solid punter for Purdue, averaging 44 yards per punt, and leads the Big Ten in net punting, and has put 10 of his 25 inside the 20. Anthony Lotti is middle of the pack in punting, and has put seven of his 20 inside the opponents 20. Both teams return units are subpar, with Wisconsin being a bit better at both.

Edge: Wisconsin

Overview

Wisconsin will need to not look past Purdue after the big win in Lincoln. The Boilermakers are more than capable of sneaking up on teams and pulling an upset. I don’t think Paul Chryst’s bunch will play them lightly, though. If Wisconsin comes out and plays like it is capable of, Bucky will win. I think Purdue will stay close for a half, but the Badgers pull away in the second half. However, it’d be nice to see Wisconsin jump out early, though. Like always, it will depend on the quarterback play. If Hornibrook plays well, Bucky should win going away. Jonathan Taylor will have another monster day.

Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Purdue 16

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Wisconsin/Nebraska review


Death. Taxes. Wisconsin beating Nebraska. No. 9 Wisconsin went into Lincoln and took control of the Big Ten West with a 38-17 win over the Cornhuskers. The loss snapped Nebraska’s 20-game winning streak in home night games. The win also put Wisconsin alone at the top of the Big Ten West standings and now essentially have a two game edge over Nebraska in the standings. They also have a chance to run away and hide with the division with a win next week over Purdue and a Nebraska loss to Ohio State. The Badgers also improved to 6-1 against the Cornhuskers since Nebraska joined the Big Ten and are now 2-1 in Lincoln. After winning nail biters the last two years, the Badgers were able to seal the game a bit sooner this time around. Wisconsin once again dominated the second half, as Jim Leonhard’s bunch once again did not allow a point in the second half. True freshman running back Jonathan Taylor went bananas....B-A-N-A-N-A-S. He ran down the throats of the Blackshirts, rushing 25 times for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Wisconsin also received contributions on the ground from Bradrick Shaw and grad transfer Rachid Ibrahim, who combined for 19 carries for 94 yards. As a team, the Badgers ran for 353 yards and more than seven yards per carry. After a pick six thrown by Alex Hornibrook, the Badgers handed the ball off nearly every play the rest of the way and ended the game with 22 consecutive runs, and Wisconsin pulled away for the 21-point win. Paul Chryst is now an incredible 10-1 in true road games, with the only loss coming by seven in Ann Arbor last season. Bucky is now 2-0 in the conference as he heads home for a pair of home games.

Starting with the positives......I mean, I sound like a broken record, but Jonathan Taylor is incredible. As I mentioned, he rushed for a career-high 249 yards and a pair of scores, while nearly rushing for an even 10 yards per carry. Taylor joins Ron Dayne as the only true freshmen with multiple 200-yard games in Wisconsin history. He is also just the 14th running back all-time to rush for 200 yards against Nebraska....and three of them are Badgers. Taylor joins Melvin Gordon and Montee Ball on that list. Not bad company for Mr. Taylor. After the Huskers scored on an 80-yard pass from Tanner Lee to Stanley Morgan to cut it to 10-7, Taylor took the first play after the kickoff 75 yards to the house. That was a theme this game. Every time Nebraska got back into the game and its crowd was in full throat, Wisconsin was able to quiet them down. Once Nebraska tied the game on the pick six, the Badgers gave the ball to the freshman six times and he gained 51 yards to help set up the Quintez Cephus touchdown to give the Badgers the 24-17 lead. Taylor also was given the ball six more times on the following drive that gave Bucky some breathing room. He gained 40 yards on those six runs and scored the touchdown to give the Badgers the 31-17 lead. Whenever Wisconsin was in trouble last night, Chryst gave the ball to his star freshman and good things happened. He was a monster against the Huskers. It is a sign of things to come.

The offensive line was battling injuries once again, but after Nebraska’s pick six tied the game, Chryst showed his faith in the banged up line, and the unit was up to the challenge. Following the pick six, Wisconsin scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives and the game was put away. They wore down the Cornhuskers. For the game, the offensive line helped the Badgers rush for more than seven yards per carry and 353 yards overall. The line also only allowed one sack of Hornibrook and he was not really pressured very much. They had a few holding calls early in the game, but bounced back nicely and was able to put the game away late. Major kudos to the offensive line. By far the unit’s best game of the season.

The job by this team to bounce back is incredible. It happened after Morgan’s long touchdown reception late in the first half to cut it to three. What happened next? Taylor rushed for a 75-yard touchdown to move the lead back out to 10. Hornibrook threw a horrible pick six, and then the Badgers marched down the field to respond. They had a bunch of obstacles last night, and was able to overcome them all. After the pick six thrown by Wisconsin, kick returner A.J. Taylor fumbled, but the Badgers recovered. However, they had to start at their own 7. Then, Wisconsin proceeded to drive 93 yards to take the lead right back. Cephus with one of the biggest plays of the game, a 31-yard catch on 3rd-and-4 to move the ball to the Nebraska 24. That set up his touchdown four plays later. Every time Nebraska thought it was on the verge of taking the lead or cutting into the deficit, the Badgers always came through and the crowd was kept silent. What great composure showed by Bucky last night.

Finally, the second half defense was terrific once again. Following a first half in which the Wisconsin defense allowed 313 yards of offense to Nebraska, the defense allowed just 68 yards to the Huskers offense in the final 30 minutes and no points. In the first half, Bucky’s defense was the definition of bend, but don’t break. Nebraska seemingly went up and down the field on the Wisconsin defense in the first half, but the Huskers only managed 10 points. You knew the Badgers defense would turn it on in the second half, and that is exactly what happened. That has been a theme this year. They have given up yards in the first half to their opponents, but have limited points. Whenever a play needed to be made, the defense did just that. With the score 31-17 and some fans still a bit nervous, Leonhard’s crew essentially ended the game with a fumble recovery in Nebraska territory. Leonhard has made incredible halftime adjustments, as his defense has only allowed 14 points in the second half.......and has scored 14 itself. The second half defense is bringing back the ‘Hard Rocks.’

Even in a big win like this, there were some disappointments. First off, I know I sound like a broken record here once again, but Wisconsin won in spite of Hornibrook, not because of him. He struggled once again, and has not played well since his incredible performance in Provo. The sophomore went just 9-of-17 for 113 yards with a touchdown and a pick a week after throwing two picks against Northwestern. In his two Big Ten games so far, Hornibrook is just 20-of-37 for 310 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. The Badgers will need more from him the rest of the year. All four of his picks this year have been ill-advised throws, and his pick six against Nebraska was a horrible decision, throwing late to the right sideline. Predictably, Aaron Williams jumped in front of the intended receiver and waltzed in for the score. After that, Chryst virtually took the ball out of Hornibrook’s hands the rest of the game. It was not all bad for the quarterback, though, as he came back with a couple of nice plays to give Bucky the lead back. His 3rd-and-4 completion to Cephus may have been the biggest play of the game. The crowd was rocking and Nebraska was looking to make a stop after tying the game up, but Hornibrook found Cephus over the middle for 31 yards to set Wisconsin up at the 24. He would hit Cephus again for the score to give the Badgers the lead in which they would never relinquish. As of now, he is eighth in the country in passer rating, but that has taken a hit in conference play. The Badgers will need improvement from him throughout the season, as there will be a point when they are not running well and will need him to help win the team the game.

For as good as Wisconsin’s defense has been, they tend to give up big plays on occasion. This is the third game in five that it has given up a play of at least 50 yards. Also, the defense starts a bit slow. Fortunately, for as many yards as it has given up in the first half, it has not given up many points. In fact, the most points it has given up in the first half is 14. But still, there is room for improvement.

Nebraska’s offensive line has not had a great start to the season, but the Badgers struggled to bring pressure yesterday. There were so many times Lee could sit back in the pocket with no pressure. That was when he could find open receivers, including the touchdown to Morgan. A week after tormenting Northwestern’s offensive line to the tune of eight sacks, Wisconsin was only able to come away with one sack last night. The Badgers did come up with a few timely pressures in the second half, though, to keep the Huskers at arm’s length.

It was a nice win last night for the Badgers, as they continued their ownage of the Cornhuskers. Night games are always a different animal, but Wisconsin was able to overcome adversity in the second half and pull away for the win. Next week, Wisconsin can further distance itself from the rest of the pack in the Big Ten West as the surprising Purdue Boilermakers come to Camp Randall. The game will kick at 2:30 CST and be on the Big Ten Network.

Thursday, October 5, 2017

Wisconsin/Nebraska preview

It is one of the biggest games in the conference this week, as the Wisconsin Badgers travel to Lincoln to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Wisconsin comes in at a perfect 4-0 and 1-0 in the conference after taking care of Northwestern at home on Saturday. Nebraska comes in at 3-2 and 2-0 in the Big Ten after beating Rutgers and Illinois. These two teams are the only teams in the division without a conference loss, so it is for the Big Ten West lead. Nebraska has won its first two in the conference, but the wins were against the two worst teams in the conference, so we don’t know much about them still. The Cornhuskers lost to an average Oregon team and a mediocre at best Northern Illinois team. Nebraska did some nice things, beating Illinois 28-6 last Friday, but Wisconsin is a whole different animal. The last two years have been thrilling games that have gone down to the wire. In the last meeting in Lincoln, Rafael Gaglianone kicked a 46-yard field goal to give the Badgers a 23-21 road victory. Last year, Dare Ogunbowale’s touchdown in overtime gave Wisconsin a 23-17 win at Camp Randall. Nebraska will need to prove it can beat Wisconsin to be considered a Big Ten West contender. The Cornhuskers have lost five of six to the Badgers and four straight since joining the conference. It will be interesting to see what will happen on Saturday under the lights at Memorial Stadium because you know the Cornhuskers will give the Badgers their best shot.

When Wisconsin runs...

Star freshman tailback Jonathan Taylor did not have as great of a game as most have come to expect against Northwestern. He just had 80 yards rushing, but did have two scores. Most of his damage came in the first half, but then the Wildcats defense shut him down in half two. Wisconsin fell to 23rd in the country in rush yards per game after rushing for just 109 yards on Saturday, Nebraska has been stout against the run, allowing just 106 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 22nd. In the last three games, the Blackshirts have been even better, allowing just 82 yards per game to their opponents. The best run team the Huskers have faced so far is Oregon, and the Ducks did rush for 201 yards. Wisconsin’s offensive line will have to bring their “A” game. The Nebraska defensive line underperformed to start the year, but turned it up last Friday in Champagne. Against the Illini, Nebraska had 10 tackles for loss after having just 12 in its first four games combined. Nebraska is transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4 after hiring Bob Diaco as the defensive coordinator this offseason. The Badgers will need to move out the big, strong nose tackle duo of Mick Stoltenberg and Deontre Thomas if they want to move the ball consistently on the ground. This will be a fun matchup to watch.

Edge: Push

When Wisconsin passes...

I wish I knew which Alex Hornibrook we will get on Saturday night. He did not look sharp in any aspect against Florida Atlantic or Northwestern or the first half against Utah State, but was flawless against BYU. The sophomore signal caller will have to play more like against BYU than FAU or Northwestern if he wants to come out of Lincoln with a win. Hornibrook had some success in the second half against the Wildcats, but still underthrew some wide open targets. He went 6-of-9 for 149 yards and a score, but those could have been a bit better. Nebraska has a veteran secondary, but lost stud cornerback Chris Jones before the season due to a meniscus tear. The Huskers are middle of the pack nationally, but able to hold Illinois’ Chayce Crouch to less than 100 yards passing. Wisconsin has weapons surrounding Hornibrook. Last week, he did not have All-American tight end Troy Fumagalli at his disposal, but Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis stepped up. Jazz Peavy has been silent this year, but he will make some noise this year. He is too good not to. But if Fumagalli plays, every other weapon will look that much better.

Edge: Push

When Nebraska runs...

After missing the first two games and only getting two carries in the third game, Devine Ozigbo has turned it on in Big Ten play. In last two games, he has reached the century mark both times and has averaged nearly five yards per carry. Not surprisingly, Nebraska has won both games. The Huskers have had some issues on the offensive line throughout the early part of the season, and will need to play well this week against Wisconsin’s front seven that is fourth in the nation in opponents rush yards per game. The Badgers will still be without defensive end Chikwe Obasih, but the unit has played well in his absence. Wisconsin has allowed 74.3 yards per game, which I mentioned is fourth in the county. In the past two games, the unit has been even better. The rush defense has allowed an average of 53 yards per game the last two, and 69 of those 106 total rushing yards came on one drive against BYU. Last game against Northwestern, the defense held star running back Justin Jackson to 25 yards on nine carries. Nebraska sophomore Tre Bryant had a fast start this season, but has missed the last three weeks and will miss Saturdays game as well. If Wisconsin makes Nebraska one-dimensional, it could be a very good thing for Bucky, especially with Tanner Lee having a tendency to throw pick sixes.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Nebraska passes...

This will be the most interesting matchup of the game. I mentioned above about Lee and his pick sixes. He has thrown three pick sixes on the season, and has thrown nine interceptions already through five games. So, in other words, there will be chances for Wisconsin’s secondary to make plays. However, he also has thrown for 229 yards per game, and has plenty of options around him. Lee’s top target is junior Stanley Morgan. He is tied for the team receiving touchdown lead with four and has at least 90 receiving yards in all four games he has played (he missed the Rutgers game) and has caught at least five passes in every game as well. Lee also has senior De’Mornay Pierson-El at his disposal. The speedster has a touchdown in all but one of the Huskers games so far and at least four catches and 60 yards in three of his last four. The Badgers secondary, specifically the cornerback duo of Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal, will be tested early and often. Nebraska has struggled a bit at times on the offensive line, so they will need to give Lee time, and the Badgers are coming off a game in which they sacked Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson eight times. If Wisconsin can slow down the running game like it did against Northwestern, it can tee off on Lee and force him into mistakes. But, if given time, he and his receivers can make it a long evening for the Badgers secondary.

Edge: Push

Special Teams

Rafael Gaglianone has made four of his five field goal attempts for Wisconsin this year, but amazingly all four have been under 30 yards. He missed his only attempt of more than 30 (37 vs. Florida Atlantic), but after having a great year up until his injury last year, he is still a more than capable weapon at kicker. Nebraska, on the other hand, also has a weapon in senior Drew Brown. He has made five of his six field goal attempts with a long of 41. The punting matchup is about even, as Wisconsin’s Anthony Lotti has a bit of an advantage in net punting, but Nebraska’s Caleb Lightbourn has put a a few more inside the opponents 20, albeit in nine more attempts. The Huskers do have a key advantage in kick returning. However, that could be negated by the big leg of Wisconsin kickoff man Zach Hintze. The sophomore boomed all six of his kickoffs for touchbacks against Northwestern and 14 of his 19 overall have been booted for touchbacks. Hintze leads the Big Ten in touchbacks and is 11th nationally in yards per kickoff. Wisconsin will need Hintze to come through on Saturday night. Both teams are near the middle of the country in punt return average. I would normally give Nebraska the edge due to freshman kick returner JD Spielman, but with Hintze being a key weapon, I think this is even.

Edge: Push

Overview

Wisconsin is the better team here, but that does not mean as much. I have seen plenty of highly ranked teams go on the road into a hostile environment and lose to lesser teams. Both teams are still trying to figure things out. Nebraska has won its two games since falling to Northern Illinois, but we still don’t know much about them since they played the two bottom feeders in the Big Ten. Northwestern has struggled early on, so we really don’t know much about Wisconsin either. This will be the toughest environment Bucky plays at all year. Nebraska has shown much improvement defensively, having allowed less than 250 yards of total offense the last three games, but has not played the toughest competition. Hornibrook will need to have a big night in order to emerge with a win. As a person who has watched college football for years, it is crazy to me that Wisconsin is an 11.5-point favorite on the road at night in Lincoln. I think the Badgers will win, but it will be a very close contest once again, and I think the defense will once again make a big play down the stretch to seal the game.

Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Nebraska 23