When Wisconsin runs...
Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the country, while running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Taylor is sixth in the country in rushing yards and averages 7.8 yards per carry. He has three carries of at least 60 yards this season, including one in each of the last two weeks. The freshman phenom has also rushed for at least 200 yards in each of the last two weeks and has scored at least one touchdown in every game this season, and has at least two in three of the six games. After last week’s 295-yard effort, Wisconsin has climbed up to 13th in the country in rushing yards per game. Bucky could make hay on the ground again once again, as the Terps are the No. 82 ranked run defense in terms of yards per game allowed, allowing 174.3. That average has shot up the last two weeks, allowing an average of 256 rushing yards per game. This past week, Maryland allowed Northwestern’s Justin Jackson to run for 171 yards and a pair of scores. Taylor has a much better offensive line to run behind than Jackson. I foresee another 200-yard rushing performance from Taylor. Shaw will also get in on the action, and I think he will also have a nice game.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Quarterback Alex Hornibrook had an okay game against Purdue. He started out hot, but then made just enough mistakes to keep the Boilermakers in the game. Wisconsin missed Jazz Peavy last week, and he may be back this week, but is questionable and could miss his second consecutive week. The Badgers still have Quintez Cephus, who has emerged as Hornibrook’s favorite target, especially on third down. The sophomore wideout had 100 yards receiving against Purdue and was just graded as the 15th best receiver through seven weeks by Pro Football Focus. In addition to Cephus, the Badgers still have one of the best tight ends in college football, Troy Fumagalli. Hornibrook needs to improve, though. He was not terrible against Purdue, but made a few mistakes to let the Boilermakers stay in the game. After having at least 200 yards passing in all three non-conference games, the sophomore quarterback has not hit the 200-yard passing mark in any of the Big Ten games so far, granted he has been in the high 190s twice. If he is able to throw for at least 200 yards against Maryland, the Terps don’t have a chance. In yards per game, Maryland is 108th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, but is toward the middle in opponents quarterback rating and has seven picks on the season. However, the Terrapins struggle rushing the passer, having sacked opposing quarterbacks just 10 times in six games. When Hornibrook has time, he can shred defenses. He could do that this week, especially if Peavy is back.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Maryland runs...
This season, Maryland running back Ty Johnson is averaging 7.2 yards per carry, but does not carry the ball all that often (68 attempts). Johnson is coming off his worst game, rushing just 10 times for 20 yards in the home loss to Northwestern this past Saturday. As a team, Maryland is 57th in rushing yards per game. The 16 sacks allowed this season has something to do with that, though. Even though Maryland is down to its third string quarterback, teams cannot crowd the box due to wide receiver D.J. Moore, one of the best receivers in the country. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is fourth in the country in rush yards allowed per game at less than 80 and also have a terrific 2.7 yards per attempt. The Badgers have just allowed two rushing touchdowns on the year and none in the past four games. Isaiahh Loudermilk is questionable and could be a loss for the Badgers defensive line with Chikwe Obasih already out.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Maryland passes...
This will be a very interesting matchup. Maryland is on its third string quarterback, sophomore Max Bortenschlager. The sophomore has not done too poorly, considering the circumstances. He was really solid against Minnesota before struggling the past two weeks, including against Ohio State in which he got injured. In Big Ten play, he has taken care of the ball, throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions. The one bad thing for him is that his completion percentage has not been good. He was tremendous against the Gophers, having a 64 percent completion percentage and two touchdowns, but in the two games since, he just has a 40 percent completion percentage. He does have three touchdown passes and no picks, but the Terps have lost both games by a wide margin. What he does have at his disposal is one of the most dynamic wide receivers in college football, D.J. Moore. He is basically Maryland’s entire offense. The Terrapins have thrown for 966 yards, which ranks 116th, and have thrown 10 touchdowns. Moore is 11th in the country in receiving yards with 624 (64.5 percent of Maryland’s receiving yards) and seven touchdowns (70 percent of receiving touchdowns). The junior is coming off a game in which he had 12 catches for 210 yards and a pair of scores. He has at least one score in each game, except for the loss in Columbus. Moore only had two catches for 11 yards in that one, and not surprisingly, Maryland was destroyed 62-14. He has at least seven catches in every game except for that Ohio State game. Wisconsin will not shut him down like Ohio State did, but the Badgers will need to slow him down and not let him run wild like he did last week. Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal have their work cut out for them. Wisconsin should be able to pressure Bortenschlager, as the Terps have allowed 16 sacks so far, only ahead of Northwestern and Purdue in the Big Ten.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Wisconsin will have a big task containing Maryland’s return units. Johnson is averaging an impressive 27.4 yards per kick return, including a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the loss to Ohio State. Moore is fourth in the Big Ten in punt return average at 13.6 yards per return, so Hintze and Lotti will need to help keep their returns minimal. Hintze is 12th in the country in kickoff touchback percentage at 75 percent, so he has a chance to keep Johnson from returning many kicks. Maryland kicker Henry Darmstadter has only had three opportunities this year after transferring from Georgetown, making two. He was 8-of-10 last season for the Hoyas with a long of 49. Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 6-of-7 this year with a long of 46, which he made last game against Purdue. Wisconsin is a non-factor returning kicks, which is why it mostly decides to take touchbacks. Maryland does have a tendency to allow big punt returns, so Nick Nelson has a chance to bust one.
Edge: Maryland
Overview
Wisconsin should win going away, just like Northwestern and Ohio State the previous two weeks against these Terps. Bucky should be able to slow down Maryland’s high-powered offense and the Badgers should be to score at will against the Terrapins defense. Taylor should have a great day, and I believe Hornibrook will have a nice day with 200 yards and multiple touchdowns. Maryland does have a +5 turnover differential, so Wisconsin will need to take care of the ball, or else an upset could take place. Expect the Badgers to own the time of possession, like normal. Maryland is 107th in the country, where as Wisconsin is third. One other major advantage Bucky does have is on third down, both offensively and defensively. Offensively, Maryland converts third downs at a 29.3 percent clip, which is 123rd in the country, while Wisconsin allows only 30 percent on third downs, which is 20th. It is even more lopsided while the Badgers are on offense, as they convert an incredible 54 percent of third downs, which is third in the country. The Terps, on the other hand, give up third down conversions at a 47.4 percent rate, which is 121st. In order to win the game, Maryland will obviously need to get the Wisconsin offense off the field. It will be a tough one for the Terps defense.
Prediction: Wisconsin 41, Maryland 20
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