Orange Bowl Preview: Wisconsin Badgers (12-1) vs. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)

For the first time in school history, the No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers are playing in the Orange Bowl, taking on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes. This will be the 10th appearance in this bowl for Miami, but the first since the 2004 Orange Bowl when the Hurricanes defeated Florida State 16-14. Both teams come in disappointed, as they both lost their conference championship and a berth in the College Football Playoff. Wisconsin fell 27-21 to Ohio State, while Miami was smashed by No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship game 38-3. After starting out 10-0, ‘The U’ has lost two consecutive games in convincing fashion to Pittsburgh and Clemson, and even in its last win, the Canes had to come back and defeat an average Virginia team at home. The series is tied at two wins apiece, with Wisconsin winning the last game, a 20-14 win over the Canes in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl. The Badgers come in having won their last three bowl games after losing four straight from the 2010-2013 seasons. Miami broke a six-game bowl losing streak with a 31-14 win over West Virginia in last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl. Wisconsin has won at least 10 games in six of the last eight seasons, but never have the Badgers won 13 games in a season. They have a chance to change that on Saturday. This is the first time Wisconsin has played a true road game in its bowl since the 1999 Rose Bowl against UCLA. It should be a great, low-scoring game between two good defenses.

When Wisconsin runs...

The Badgers are coming off by far their worst rushing performance of the season, rushing 32 times for just 60 yards against Ohio State. Not surprisingly, star freshman Jonathan Taylor had his worst game as well, running for just 41 yards on 15 totes. His previous low for the season was 73 yards against Illinois in which he left with an injury in the first half. Still, the Freshman All-American and second team All-American has rushed for 1,847 yards and 13 scores. After being shut down by Ohio State’s front seven, Wisconsin fell to No. 21 in rush yards per game. Fortunately, Miami does not have as talented of a defensive line as Ohio State’s. The Canes have a defensive line is solid, but the Buckeyes defensive line is one of the best in the country. Miami comes in at 41st in the country in rush yards allowed per game, but has only allowed 3.5 yards per carry. Even in the blowout against Clemson, Miami only allowed 77 yards on the ground and less than two yards per carry. Pitt gained 152 yards on the ground, but still only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Wisconsin will need to try to loosen up the Miami run defense up the middle with a few jet sweeps with Kendric Pryor, or even Taylor, which the Badgers have done a number of times. Pryor and Danny Davis were each given a carry against Ohio State and gained a total of five yards, so they were not able to find much running room, like the freshman phenom. This is a strength vs. strength matchup. Notre Dame’s Josh Adams had a big season, but was shut down by Miami, gaining just 40 yards on 16 carries. The Hurricanes have faced four teams in the top 33 in rush yards per game (Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Toledo, Clemson) and have allowed just 3.01 yards per carry in those four games. If you take out the Ramblin’ Wreck, which runs the triple option, the Canes have allowed a total of 271 yards on the ground in the other three games and just 2.4 yards per carry. Another area where Taylor will need to be careful is his fumbling problems. For as good as he has been this year, the freshman has coughed the ball up to the other team five times. Miami has recovered 13 fumbles this season. Ball security is a major concern going into the game. The Wisconsin offensive line will have its hands full with the Miami front seven and the Badgers will need to run the ball effectively in order to move it consistently.

Edge: Push

When Wisconsin passes...

Alex Hornibrook will need to have a nice game in order for the Badgers to come out on top, especially if Taylor is bottled up like against Ohio State. Miami certainly has the ability to slow down the star freshman, like I mentioned above. Hornibrook will certainly have to play better than he did in his last outing against the Buckeyes. This season, the sophomore quarterback is ninth all-time in passing yardage for a season, and has a real chance to move up to sixth with a decent showing against the Hurricanes. He also is third in passing touchdowns for a season (21) in school history and trails John Stocco by one for second place. His 21 touchdowns are overshadowed by his 15 interceptions, and rightly so. Of those 15 picks thrown, 14 have come in the last 10 games and threw at least one interception in nine of the 10 Big Ten games, including the Big Ten Championship. He will need to take much better care of the ball because the opportunistic Miami defense comes in ninth in interceptions with 17 (tied with Wisconsin, in fact) and is tied for second in the country in turnover differential at plus-15. Much of the success of Hornibrook will depend on the effectiveness of Taylor, and quite possibly, vice versa. The Badgers will once again be without top two wide receivers, Jazz Peavy and Quintez Cephus, who are out for the season. However, there is still talent there. In the four games Cephus has been out, freshman wide receiver Danny Davis has stepped up in a big way. catching 13 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown. A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor are also solid targets for Hornibrook. But the top receiving weapon for the Badgers in this game (and every game) has to be Mackey Award finalist Troy Fumagalli. He has been a bit of a forgotten man in the passing game, not exceeding three catches in all but one of the last 10 regular season games. Fumagalli was able to have a decent showing against Ohio State in Indianapolis, though, and caught five passes for 45 yards, his most yards receiving since his 83-yard effort in October against Maryland. It was a bit of a disappointing season for the tight end in receiving, but he can make up for that on Saturday. In last year’s bowl game, he was a man amongst boys, catching six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown in the 24-16 win over Western Michigan. Miami comes in at 52nd in the country in passing yards allowed per game, but all the other pass defense stats are in its favor. Opponents yards per attempt? 16th. Passing touchdowns? Tied for 29th. Interceptions? As I mentioned, tied for ninth. Quarterback sacks? Tied for second. Passing efficiency? 18th. Yeah, Miami’s defense is pretty good. Hornibrook will have to make a few plays through the air in order to be able to move the ball against this great defense.

Edge: Miami

When Miami runs...

The Hurricanes lost their starting running back Mark Walton, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 428 yards in his four starts. Travis Homer has taken over the lead back role and has played well. In his eight starts, he averaged six yards per carry and rushed for more than 900 yards. However, he was shut down in Miami’s two losses, rushing for 53 yards on 21 carries combined. As a matter of fact, Miami rushed for just 149 yards total in the two losses on 53 carries, for an average of just 2.5 yards per carry. Overall, the Canes just finished 72nd in the country in rushing yards per game (159.7), but jump up to 30th in yards per carry at five yards per tote. Like Wisconsin, Miami will need to lean on the running game in order to come out on top because neither quarterback is capable of being able to win the game for them. Also, like against the Buckeyes and J.T. Barrett, Bucky will have to watch for quarterback runs. Rosier’s 427 yards rushing are just one yard shy of second on the team. Rosier had five games with at least 40 yards on the ground, including 84 yards against Virginia Tech. He also has ran for five scores. The Badgers, on the other hand, are tremendous at stopping the run. However, Ohio State gashed Wisconsin on the ground to the tune of 238 yards, the most Bucky’s defense has allowed in three years. Fortunately, Miami’s offense is not Ohio State’s. As solid as Homer is, he is not J.K. Dobbins, and Miami’s offensive line is not Ohio State’s. Even with the poor showing in the Big Ten Championship game, Wisconsin still ranks No. 2 in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (92.6), No. 5 in yards per carry (3.0) and tied for first in the country in rushing touchdowns allowed (5). After hearing about how they were gashed against “their only real opponent,” I think this defense will come out with an edge and be able to shut down the Hurricanes ground game and force Malik Rosier to beat them.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Miami passes...

Miami has struggled mightily on offense recently, and the biggest problem has been the quarterback, Malik Rosier. He was actually benched during the loss to Pittsburgh, but would return after backup Evan Shirreffs misfired on his two pass attempts. In that loss, Rosier would only complete 15 of 34 pass attempts for 187 yards. He did not throw a pick, but he did get sacked and fumble to end the Hurricanes comeback attempt. As a matter of fact, Rosier, a junior, has not completed 54 percent of his passes in five of his last six games, and has been under 50 percent in three of them. The Miami quarterback has also thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last five games, including three in the win over Virginia Tech last month. For the season, his stats aren’t bad, having a nearly 55 percent completion percentage to go along with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Unfortunately for Rosier and Miami, the Canes have major injury issues in the receiving core. First, tight end Christopher Herndon IV is out for the year with an MCL injury. Herndon (40-477-4) is the second leading receiver for the Canes and is one of the better receiving tight ends in the country. Third leading receiver Ahmmon Richards is also out for the year, suffering a torn meniscus in a practice leading up to the ACC Championship game and he is also out for the season. Being without its top two wide receivers, I highly doubt Wisconsin will feel sorry for the ACC runners up. Still, Miami has a major weapon in the passing game, senior wide receiver Braxton Berrios. The 5-10 Berrios ranks among the best receivers Wisconsin has faced this year. This will be the best pass defense Miami has faced this year, though. Bucky’s defense ranks fourth in opponent’s passing yards per game, first in passing efficiency, fourth in completion percentage and third in yards per attempt. Also, starting safety D’Cota Dixon will be at full strength for the first time since before the Illinois game Oct. 28. Having him at less than 100 percent hurt them in the Big Ten Championship game, as backup Joe Ferguson was beaten for the 84-yard touchdown in the opening quarter. Wisconsin can also get opposing quarterbacks, registering 39 sacks on the year. Nick Nelson vs. Berrios will be one of the matchups to keep an eye on. If Nelson can shut down Miami’s top wide receiver like he did against Maryland’s D.J. Moore, the Badgers will be in great shape.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Both kickers are extremely reliable, with Miami’s Michael Badgley having made 16 of 20 attempts this season, while Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone has made 14 of 16. Interestingly, about Badgley, he has been money inside of 40, having made all 14 of his attempts. However, he is just 2-of-6 from 40 and beyond. Gaglianone has made all three of his attempts from at least 40 yards, including a career-long 52-yard field goal against Illinois at the end of the first half. Gaglianone’s 58 field goals rank third in school history, and just one behind Philip Welch for second all-time. Barring injury, the junior will easily break the program record of 65 by Todd Gregoire. His 87.5 percent accuracy this year currently ranks second, but the top spot appears out of reach. Miami’s punter is freshman Zach Feagles, the son of former NFL punter Jeff Feagles. His average of 38.6 yards per punt won’t wow you, but of his 44 punts, 17 have ended inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Wisconsin sophomore Anthony Lotti is having a decent year, having nearly an identical average as Feagles, but has a little bit higher average on pinning opponent’s inside their 20, having done so on 12 of 28 punts. He also has had one blocked. Miami may have a big advantage in the return game. In addition to being a great receiver, Berrios is also a very good punt returner. He does not return many (only 12 on the year), but has returned them at an average of a little more than 16 yards per return. Among qualified players, Wisconsin’s Nelson is 24th, at 8.5 yards per return. Miami’s Jeff Thomas is a decent kick returner, but I am not sure he’ll get many opportunities to return with Zach Hintze as the kickoff man for the Badgers. I’ll give the edge to the Canes here, but not by much.

Edge: Miami

Overview

This should be a great, low-scoring game. If you enjoy shootouts with no defense being played, this is not the bowl game for you. Miami has limped into the Orange Bowl, having been beaten convincingly in two consecutive games. Wisconsin has a chance to win 13 games for the first time in school history. I think the Badgers are a better team, especially with all the injuries on offense for the Hurricanes, but Wisconsin will need to take care of the ball. Miami is a ball-hawking defense and the Badgers cannot afford to consistently give the Canes the ball with good field position. If Wisconsin can avoid costly mistakes, I think the Badgers will win a close one and finish 13-1.

Prediction: Wisconsin 16, Miami 13

Ohio State/Wisconsin review

Wisconsin suffered its first loss in the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State, falling 27-21 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Badgers fell to 12-1 and failed to advance to the College Football Playoffs for the first time in the four year history of the playoffs. Despite being outgained 449-298, Wisconsin had a chance to win late in the game, but missed a 4th-and-20 with 1:09 remaining to seal the game. Bucky has now lost six consecutive games against the Buckeyes, but has lost five of them by one score. Ohio State’s defense held the vaunted Wisconsin ground game to just 60 yards, 183 yards under its season average. The Buckeyes, like every other team, made an effort to shut down star freshman Jonathan Taylor with the difference being Ohio State actually had the talent to do just that. Taylor came in third in the country in rushing, and he was held to 41 yards on 15 carries. Ohio State was the only team that was able to successfully try and make Alex Hornibrook beat them. The sophomore quarterback was not great, and he needed to be in order for Wisconsin to win. Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins dominated the battle of star freshmen running backs, running for 174 yards on 17 carries. J.T. Barrett was the difference, accounting for all of the Ohio State touchdowns, throwing for two scores and running for another. For as good as the defense has been this season, it let them down this past Saturday, and so the Badgers are 12-1.

Wisconsin may have lost, but when it seemed like Ohio State could do no wrong and was in front 21-7, the team fought back and only allowed a pair of field goals in the final 41 minutes of the game. The Badgers are a second half team and after giving up 309 yards in the first half, the No. 1 ranked defense allowed only 140 yards in the second half and gave the team a chance to win it at the end. Wisconsin showed a ton of fight and after falling behind 21-7. It could have been easy to just wave the white flag, but the team made some plays in the second half and came back to make it a game. The team also bounced back after all three touchdowns in the first half, where they forced two turnovers and a three-and-out in the three drives following the Buckeyes touchdowns. It has happened throughout this season, but when the team gets behind, the resiliency shown has been outstanding. They didn’t come all the way back, but they played really well to come back, showing its heart.

Leon Jacobs and Garret Dooley will be gone at the conclusion of the season, which will open up spots for others, such Andrew Van Ginkel. The junior had a terrific game against Ohio State, picking off a Barrett pass and returning it for a touchdown as well as forcing a fumble and recovering it. While the Wisconsin offense was struggling to consistently move the ball against the Ohio State defense in the first half, Van Ginkel single-handedly kept the Badgers in the game with the two turnovers forced in the first half. Those takeaways led to the only 10 points of the first half by Wisconsin. Hopefully that was a sign of things to come, as he will be the leader of the outside linebackers next season and one of the main pass rushers.

Also, junior kicker Rafael Gaglianone continued his stellar campaign, connecting on field goals from 28 and 46 yards to improve to 14-of-16 on the year. His 87.5 percent field goal percentage would tie his career-best, set last year, which he made 7-of-8 before missing the final 11 games of the season with a back injury. If that holds, it would be the best field goal percentage by a Wisconsin kicker since Matt Davenport connected on 19-of-21 (90.5 percent) in 1998. After missing all those games last year and having to redshirt, Gaglianone has improved as this season has gone on, making his last eight field goal attempts, including his career-long 52-yard kick to end the first half against Illinois. He has been a real weapon for the Badgers and will continue to be next year. The Brazilian is third in Wisconsin history with 58 field goals made, just one behind Philip Welch and seven behind Todd Gregoire.

Unfortunately, there were plenty of negatives from this game, the most this season. First off, Hornibrook is an average college quarterback. He is not terrible, but he will not be able to win many games for the Badgers and will certainly not be able to lead the program to its first national championship. The sophomore missed some throws a college quarterback should be able to make. Hornibrook will improve in the coming two years with the Badgers, but his deficiencies will kill Wisconsin. His inconsistency is maddening, going just 19-of-40 for 229 yards and two picks after playing very well in his final three halves of the regular season. Hornibrook can look solid against the lesser teams, but he needed to play a great game against Ohio State and failed to do that. Like I said, he will improve, but I don’t think his ceiling is that of a championship-winning quarterback, which is what the Badgers should be aiming for. In addition to inconsistency, his mobility, or lack thereof, is a huge flaw in his game. Every great quarterback can move around in the pocket to elude the rush and make plays outside the pocket. Now, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are (or were) not the most mobile quarterbacks in the world, but they make up for that with their intelligence. Those two have terrific accuracy and can throw it deep downfield when need be. You don’t see that with Hornibrook. Obviously, he doesn’t have to play like two of the best quarterbacks of all-time, but if he was even one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the country, Bucky would be playing for a national title.

For as good as well as the offensive line had played all year, the big guys up front were manhandled by Ohio State’s defensive front. As I mentioned earlier, Taylor had just 41 yards on 15 carries, by far his lowest yardage output of the season. His previous low was 73 at Illinois in which he was injured in the first half. In addition to the leading rusher in the conference being held to just 41 yards, the pass blocking was having all sorts of trouble stopping the Ohio State pass rush. Hornibrook was sacked three times and hurried four other times. It seemed like he was being pressured constantly and the Wisconsin quarterback did not respond well to it. The offensive line couldn’t run block and it was having trouble pass blocking. If you add those two things together and it equals fewer than 300 yards of total offense, just 14 offensive points scored and the first loss of the season. The Badgers needed to control the line of scrimmage in order to come away with a win, and just the opposite happened.

I will just lump the entire defense into one paragraph, as the defense played its worst game of the year by far. Early in the season, the defense had a bit of a problem giving up big plays, having given up three 50+ yard plays in its first five games. That problem arose again in the Big Ten Championship game. After giving just those three plays of 50 yards or more in the first five games, the Badgers defense did not allow any such plays the remainder of the season. Then Ohio State was able to bust off four of them. The longest rush allowed by Wisconsin all season prior to Saturday was 28 yards. Dobbins had runs of 53 and 77 in the game, which set up 10 Buckeyes points. Those four big plays totaled 271 yards and set Ohio State up for 24 of its 27 points. Other than those plays, the Badgers defense played really well, giving up just 178 yards in 64 plays, an average of just 2.8 yards per play. But obviously you can't ignore those game-changing plays. One of the big plays annoyed me the most. With Ohio State facing a 2nd-and-10 from its own 43 late in the first quarter, Barrett threw a wide receiver screen to Parris Campbell. The talking heads will use the speed cliche, but if you actually watched the game, it was horrible tackling. On the screen, Campbell broke tackle attempts from Natrell Jamerson and Nick Nelson four yards down field and all the Ohio State receiver had to do was outrun Chris Orr and he was in the end zone to give the Buckeyes the lead back. The missed tackles were a theme in the game, and it was unusual since the Badgers defense had done so well in that area up to that point. No, it was not the speed of Ohio State that beat Wisconsin. It was the missed tackles. Two of the big plays in the first half by OSU were helped by missed tackles. That was the story of the first half. It was corrected in the second half, but the offense did not have the firepower to overcome the bad tackling and big plays given up by the defense in the first half.

Even with the win, Ohio State was passed up by Alabama for the fourth and final spot in the CFP and will play USC in the Cotton Bowl, which the Badgers played in last season. In that bowl, Bucky defeated previously undefeated Western Michigan 24-16. With its first loss, Wisconsin will travel to Miami to take on the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl. It is the first Orange Bowl appearance in school history. Wisconsin will play at the opposing team’s stadium in its bowl for the first time since defeating UCLA 38-31 in the 1999 Rose Bowl. The game will be Dec. 30 at 7 p.m. CST and televised on ESPN with Steve Levy and Brian Griese on the call.