When Wisconsin runs...
The Badgers are coming off by far their worst rushing performance of the season, rushing 32 times for just 60 yards against Ohio State. Not surprisingly, star freshman Jonathan Taylor had his worst game as well, running for just 41 yards on 15 totes. His previous low for the season was 73 yards against Illinois in which he left with an injury in the first half. Still, the Freshman All-American and second team All-American has rushed for 1,847 yards and 13 scores. After being shut down by Ohio State’s front seven, Wisconsin fell to No. 21 in rush yards per game. Fortunately, Miami does not have as talented of a defensive line as Ohio State’s. The Canes have a defensive line is solid, but the Buckeyes defensive line is one of the best in the country. Miami comes in at 41st in the country in rush yards allowed per game, but has only allowed 3.5 yards per carry. Even in the blowout against Clemson, Miami only allowed 77 yards on the ground and less than two yards per carry. Pitt gained 152 yards on the ground, but still only averaged 3.4 yards per carry. Wisconsin will need to try to loosen up the Miami run defense up the middle with a few jet sweeps with Kendric Pryor, or even Taylor, which the Badgers have done a number of times. Pryor and Danny Davis were each given a carry against Ohio State and gained a total of five yards, so they were not able to find much running room, like the freshman phenom. This is a strength vs. strength matchup. Notre Dame’s Josh Adams had a big season, but was shut down by Miami, gaining just 40 yards on 16 carries. The Hurricanes have faced four teams in the top 33 in rush yards per game (Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Toledo, Clemson) and have allowed just 3.01 yards per carry in those four games. If you take out the Ramblin’ Wreck, which runs the triple option, the Canes have allowed a total of 271 yards on the ground in the other three games and just 2.4 yards per carry. Another area where Taylor will need to be careful is his fumbling problems. For as good as he has been this year, the freshman has coughed the ball up to the other team five times. Miami has recovered 13 fumbles this season. Ball security is a major concern going into the game. The Wisconsin offensive line will have its hands full with the Miami front seven and the Badgers will need to run the ball effectively in order to move it consistently.
Edge: Push
When Wisconsin passes...
Alex Hornibrook will need to have a nice game in order for the Badgers to come out on top, especially if Taylor is bottled up like against Ohio State. Miami certainly has the ability to slow down the star freshman, like I mentioned above. Hornibrook will certainly have to play better than he did in his last outing against the Buckeyes. This season, the sophomore quarterback is ninth all-time in passing yardage for a season, and has a real chance to move up to sixth with a decent showing against the Hurricanes. He also is third in passing touchdowns for a season (21) in school history and trails John Stocco by one for second place. His 21 touchdowns are overshadowed by his 15 interceptions, and rightly so. Of those 15 picks thrown, 14 have come in the last 10 games and threw at least one interception in nine of the 10 Big Ten games, including the Big Ten Championship. He will need to take much better care of the ball because the opportunistic Miami defense comes in ninth in interceptions with 17 (tied with Wisconsin, in fact) and is tied for second in the country in turnover differential at plus-15. Much of the success of Hornibrook will depend on the effectiveness of Taylor, and quite possibly, vice versa. The Badgers will once again be without top two wide receivers, Jazz Peavy and Quintez Cephus, who are out for the season. However, there is still talent there. In the four games Cephus has been out, freshman wide receiver Danny Davis has stepped up in a big way. catching 13 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown. A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor are also solid targets for Hornibrook. But the top receiving weapon for the Badgers in this game (and every game) has to be Mackey Award finalist Troy Fumagalli. He has been a bit of a forgotten man in the passing game, not exceeding three catches in all but one of the last 10 regular season games. Fumagalli was able to have a decent showing against Ohio State in Indianapolis, though, and caught five passes for 45 yards, his most yards receiving since his 83-yard effort in October against Maryland. It was a bit of a disappointing season for the tight end in receiving, but he can make up for that on Saturday. In last year’s bowl game, he was a man amongst boys, catching six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown in the 24-16 win over Western Michigan. Miami comes in at 52nd in the country in passing yards allowed per game, but all the other pass defense stats are in its favor. Opponents yards per attempt? 16th. Passing touchdowns? Tied for 29th. Interceptions? As I mentioned, tied for ninth. Quarterback sacks? Tied for second. Passing efficiency? 18th. Yeah, Miami’s defense is pretty good. Hornibrook will have to make a few plays through the air in order to be able to move the ball against this great defense.
Edge: Miami
The Hurricanes lost their starting running back Mark Walton, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 428 yards in his four starts. Travis Homer has taken over the lead back role and has played well. In his eight starts, he averaged six yards per carry and rushed for more than 900 yards. However, he was shut down in Miami’s two losses, rushing for 53 yards on 21 carries combined. As a matter of fact, Miami rushed for just 149 yards total in the two losses on 53 carries, for an average of just 2.5 yards per carry. Overall, the Canes just finished 72nd in the country in rushing yards per game (159.7), but jump up to 30th in yards per carry at five yards per tote. Like Wisconsin, Miami will need to lean on the running game in order to come out on top because neither quarterback is capable of being able to win the game for them. Also, like against the Buckeyes and J.T. Barrett, Bucky will have to watch for quarterback runs. Rosier’s 427 yards rushing are just one yard shy of second on the team. Rosier had five games with at least 40 yards on the ground, including 84 yards against Virginia Tech. He also has ran for five scores. The Badgers, on the other hand, are tremendous at stopping the run. However, Ohio State gashed Wisconsin on the ground to the tune of 238 yards, the most Bucky’s defense has allowed in three years. Fortunately, Miami’s offense is not Ohio State’s. As solid as Homer is, he is not J.K. Dobbins, and Miami’s offensive line is not Ohio State’s. Even with the poor showing in the Big Ten Championship game, Wisconsin still ranks No. 2 in the country in rushing yards allowed per game (92.6), No. 5 in yards per carry (3.0) and tied for first in the country in rushing touchdowns allowed (5). After hearing about how they were gashed against “their only real opponent,” I think this defense will come out with an edge and be able to shut down the Hurricanes ground game and force Malik Rosier to beat them.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Miami passes...
Miami has struggled mightily on offense recently, and the biggest problem has been the quarterback, Malik Rosier. He was actually benched during the loss to Pittsburgh, but would return after backup Evan Shirreffs misfired on his two pass attempts. In that loss, Rosier would only complete 15 of 34 pass attempts for 187 yards. He did not throw a pick, but he did get sacked and fumble to end the Hurricanes comeback attempt. As a matter of fact, Rosier, a junior, has not completed 54 percent of his passes in five of his last six games, and has been under 50 percent in three of them. The Miami quarterback has also thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last five games, including three in the win over Virginia Tech last month. For the season, his stats aren’t bad, having a nearly 55 percent completion percentage to go along with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Unfortunately for Rosier and Miami, the Canes have major injury issues in the receiving core. First, tight end Christopher Herndon IV is out for the year with an MCL injury. Herndon (40-477-4) is the second leading receiver for the Canes and is one of the better receiving tight ends in the country. Third leading receiver Ahmmon Richards is also out for the year, suffering a torn meniscus in a practice leading up to the ACC Championship game and he is also out for the season. Being without its top two wide receivers, I highly doubt Wisconsin will feel sorry for the ACC runners up. Still, Miami has a major weapon in the passing game, senior wide receiver Braxton Berrios. The 5-10 Berrios ranks among the best receivers Wisconsin has faced this year. This will be the best pass defense Miami has faced this year, though. Bucky’s defense ranks fourth in opponent’s passing yards per game, first in passing efficiency, fourth in completion percentage and third in yards per attempt. Also, starting safety D’Cota Dixon will be at full strength for the first time since before the Illinois game Oct. 28. Having him at less than 100 percent hurt them in the Big Ten Championship game, as backup Joe Ferguson was beaten for the 84-yard touchdown in the opening quarter. Wisconsin can also get opposing quarterbacks, registering 39 sacks on the year. Nick Nelson vs. Berrios will be one of the matchups to keep an eye on. If Nelson can shut down Miami’s top wide receiver like he did against Maryland’s D.J. Moore, the Badgers will be in great shape.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Both kickers are extremely reliable, with Miami’s Michael Badgley having made 16 of 20 attempts this season, while Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone has made 14 of 16. Interestingly, about Badgley, he has been money inside of 40, having made all 14 of his attempts. However, he is just 2-of-6 from 40 and beyond. Gaglianone has made all three of his attempts from at least 40 yards, including a career-long 52-yard field goal against Illinois at the end of the first half. Gaglianone’s 58 field goals rank third in school history, and just one behind Philip Welch for second all-time. Barring injury, the junior will easily break the program record of 65 by Todd Gregoire. His 87.5 percent accuracy this year currently ranks second, but the top spot appears out of reach. Miami’s punter is freshman Zach Feagles, the son of former NFL punter Jeff Feagles. His average of 38.6 yards per punt won’t wow you, but of his 44 punts, 17 have ended inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Wisconsin sophomore Anthony Lotti is having a decent year, having nearly an identical average as Feagles, but has a little bit higher average on pinning opponent’s inside their 20, having done so on 12 of 28 punts. He also has had one blocked. Miami may have a big advantage in the return game. In addition to being a great receiver, Berrios is also a very good punt returner. He does not return many (only 12 on the year), but has returned them at an average of a little more than 16 yards per return. Among qualified players, Wisconsin’s Nelson is 24th, at 8.5 yards per return. Miami’s Jeff Thomas is a decent kick returner, but I am not sure he’ll get many opportunities to return with Zach Hintze as the kickoff man for the Badgers. I’ll give the edge to the Canes here, but not by much.
Edge: Miami
Overview
This should be a great, low-scoring game. If you enjoy shootouts with no defense being played, this is not the bowl game for you. Miami has limped into the Orange Bowl, having been beaten convincingly in two consecutive games. Wisconsin has a chance to win 13 games for the first time in school history. I think the Badgers are a better team, especially with all the injuries on offense for the Hurricanes, but Wisconsin will need to take care of the ball. Miami is a ball-hawking defense and the Badgers cannot afford to consistently give the Canes the ball with good field position. If Wisconsin can avoid costly mistakes, I think the Badgers will win a close one and finish 13-1.
Prediction: Wisconsin 16, Miami 13
No comments:
Post a Comment