When Philadelphia runs...
Philadelphia has relied on its tremendous ground attack to get to where it is. The Eagles finished third in the NFL in rushing with 2115 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. They use three running backs, led by free agent acquisition Legarrette Blount, who will play against his former team after winning two Super Bowl rings with the Patriots. Blount leads the team in rushing with 766 yards and had 21 yards and a touchdown in the 38-7 win over Minnesota two weeks ago. After coming over from Miami in a mid-season trade, Jay Ajayi rushed for 465 yards, but only 3.4 yards per carry. He did have 73 yards and average 4.1 yards per carry in the win over the Vikings. Undrafted free agent Corey Clement is the last of the running back trio, and the rookie out of Wisconsin gained 321 yards on 74 carries, and added four touchdowns. In the regular season, New England was 20th in the league in rush yards allowed, and were even worse when in yards per carry allowed. The Patriots gave up an average of 4.7 yards per carry, which was 31st in the league. However, in the playoffs, New England’s rush defense has been outstanding. Against two great run offenses (Tennessee and Jacksonville), it has allowed a total of 166 yards on the ground and just 3.5 yards per carry. Even that is a little inflated due to Marcus Mariota rushing for 37 yards on nine carries in the Divisional round. Bill Belichick will take away your top option and force you to become one-dimensional. That worked in the previous two games, and Belichick will use the same formula again.
Edge: Push
When Philadelphia passes...
Nick Foles had an incredible performance two weeks ago against Minnesota. That’s not happening again. In his previous three games before the NFC Championship, had just a 58 percent completion percentage, one touchdown and two interceptions, as well as his team scored just 11.3 points per game. New England comes in 30th in pass defense officially, but it has improved drastically since the opening quarter of the season. In the first four games of the season, the Patriots pass defense was shredded by Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton to the tune of 32 points per game. In the last 14 games (including playoffs), the Patriots defense has given up at least 20 points just three times and the team has just lost once in that period. Alshon Jeffery has been a solid target this post season, catching nine passes for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both coming against Minnesota. If Philadelphia were to win its first Super Bowl, tight end Zach Ertz needs to have a big day. In the win two weeks ago, he had 93 yards receiving on eight catches. Corey Clement is a threat out of the backfield as well, catching six passes this postseason for 39 yards. I just have a hard time seeing Foles beating a Belichick-coached Patriots team that has had two weeks to prepare.
Edge: Patriots
When New England runs...
New England is not a running team, but can run when it needs to. Even with Tom Brady on the team, the Patriots finished 10th in the league in rushing and added 16 scores. New England is led on the ground by Dion Lewis, who rushed for nearly 900 yards and five yards per carry. Lewis, Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead all had at least five touchdown runs. Just the threat of having No. 12 behind center opens up running lanes for the Patriots running backs. Gillislee will not play tonight, so we will see plenty of Lewis, Burkhead and last year’s Super Bowl hero James White. Philadelphia is a tremendous defense all around, but especially at stopping the run. The Eagles run defense gave up just 79.2 yards per game, far and away the fewest in the league. Fletcher Cox will have to be on his game for Philadelphia to come out on top.
Edge: Eagles
When New England passes...
Although the Eagles ranked 17th in pass defense on the year, the quarterback rating for opposing passers is just 79.5, which ranked ninth in the league. But.....this is Tom Brady we’re talking about. He is gunning for his sixth Super Bowl title in eight (!!!!!) appearances. The former Michigan standout has seen it all and will not be fazed regardless of what happens, even when his team is trailing by 25 points in the third quarter. Against four of the toughest pass defenses (Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Denver, LA Chargers), Brady averaged nearly 300 yards passing with seven touchdowns and one interception. You just can’t bet against No. 12. I think Brady will have another strong Super Bowl performance as he takes home another Super Bowl MVP award.
Edge: Patriots
Prediction: Patriots 20, Eagles 13
