Friday, March 30, 2018

Top 20 current coaches who have yet to make the Final Four

None of the coaches from last year’s list were able to make the Final Four this year, but I did make some changes. Here is my up-to-date list...

Honorable Mention:

Dave Rose, BYU (329-122, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)
Billy Kennedy, Texas A&M (347-277, four NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)
Greg Gard, Wisconsin (57-36, two NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)
Tim Cluess, Iona (280-114, five NCAA Tournament appearances)
Steve Alford, UCLA (579-291, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, four Sweet 16s)
Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa (250-150, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)
Bryce Drew, Vanderbilt (155-85, three NCAA Tournament appearances)
Dan Hurley, Connecticut (150-104, two NCAA Tournament appearances)

20. Mark Turgeon, Maryland (407-239, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)

After having three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, led by Melo Trimble, the Terrapins had a down year, finishing outside the top three in the Big Ten for the first time in four years. Before being hired at Maryland, Turgeon turned around Wichita State and led the Shockers to four consecutive postseason appearances. He then led the Texas A&M Aggies to NCAA Tournament appearances in all four of his seasons in College Station. He will need to prove more in the NCAA Tournament, though, as he has only led one team past the first weekend since he took the jump to a major conference school (11 years). If Justin Jackson comes back, he should be able to get the Terps to make a run next season.

19. Larry Krystkowiak, Utah (179-117, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Krystkowiak’s Utes finished in a tie for third in the Pac 12, but missed the Big Dance after being bounced in the first game of the conference tournament. Utah was picked seventh in the preseason after losing forward Kyle Kuzma to the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Draft. Utah was a No. 2 seed in the NIT and was able to win four straight before losing to Penn State in the NIT Championship. Obviously, it is not what Krystkowiak and the Utes wanted, but the run they made in the NIT is something to build on for next season. Utah does lose its top two scorers from this year, so it will be difficult, but I expect Utah to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth anyway.

18. Brad Underwood, Illinois (123-45, four NCAA Tournament appearances)

I had to move Underwood down after that season he just had. Illinois was terrible. After an incredible run at Stephen F. Austin in which he led the Lumberjacks to an 89-14 record and an incredible 53-1 conference record, he led the Oklahoma State Cowboys to the tournament last season. He came to Illinois, and the Fighting Illini went 14-18 and just 4-14 in Big Ten play. The state of Illinois is loaded with high-level prospects, so maybe Underwood can turn the program around since the Illini have not made the tournament since 2013.

17. Scott Drew, Baylor (318-205, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, two Elite 8s)

It seems like many times in big games, Drew gets outcoached....but then you look up and see he has made it past the first weekend four times in seven tournament appearances. However, he has made the tournament just seven times in 15 seasons. I will say that Baylor was in rough, rough shape after the Patrick Dennehy scandal. He does deserve credit for turning the program around, and making the Bears regulars in the NCAA Tournament after making only one appearance in the Big Dance since 1950. Once his teams do get in the tournament, though, they either go far or get bounced by a lower-seeded team early. Drew has been a really solid coach for the Bears, and maybe at some point, he could get lucky and make a run to the Final Four.

16. Chris Beard, Texas Tech (141-54, two NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

Beard is one of two newcomers to the list, along with the guy ranked one spot ahead of him. For his record, I included his time at McMurry and Angelo State. Since his jump to Division I, his teams have gone 75-29, at Little Rock and Texas Tech. After leading Little Rock to a 30-5 season and a first-round upset against Purdue, he left after one year to go coach the Red Raiders. In only two seasons in Lubbock, he led Texas Tech to its first appearance ever in the Elite 8 and its first time reaching the Sweet 16 since 2005. He has the program headed in the right direction, and the 45-year-old may not stay on this list very long.

15. Eric Musselman, Nevada (81-29, two NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Musselman started off a bit late in college basketball, starting as a head coach in 2015 after spending the previous 18 seasons either as a college assistant coach or in the NBA. In his first season, he rebuilt Nevada after a 9-22 season. He led the Wolfpack to a 15-win increase in 2015-16 and a CBI championship. In his next two seasons, he led them to two consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances and a berth in the Sweet 16 this year. Nevada is in good hands moving forward, but expect big name schools to come calling for his services soon.

14. Mike White, Florida (170-88, two NCAA appearances, one Elite 8)

White led the Gators to their second straight NCAA Tournament berth, following a season in which they played in the NIT. It was a bit of a disappointing season for him and Florida, but still was a No. 6 seed in the Big Dance and gave Texas Tech and Chris Beard a good game in the second round. In his final three years with Louisiana Tech, he led the Bulldogs to 83 wins and a conference title all three years. However, he could not get his team over the hump and into the Big Dance and had to settle for the NIT all three seasons. In 2017, his Gators led South Carolina at halftime in the Elite 8, but could not hold the lead.

13. Randy Bennett, St. Mary’s (392-162, six NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Bennett has been an outstanding coach, having led his Gaels to 20+ wins in each of the last 11 seasons. However, he has only gone to the tournament in five of those seasons due to him being in the same conference as Mark Few and Gonzaga. Despite leading the Gaels to a 30-win season, they missed the tournament and were bounced in the NIT Quarterfinals. Bennett took over a woeful St. Mary’s program and has turned it into a powerful program. I wonder if Bennett will ever take an offer from a major conference job.

12. Steve Prohm, Iowa State (164-70, three NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

After averaging more than 25 wins per season in his first six seasons as a coach, I’ll give him a pass for last season. For the first time since 2012-13, Prohm failed to reach the postseason. His 2017-18 Iowa State team went just 13-18 and 4-14 in Big 12 play. That should not be too get surprising, though, as Iowa State lost five of the top six scorers from 2016-17, including the top four who all averaged double figures. I will give him another year, but if he struggles again in the 2018-19 year, then he will fall down this list quite a bit. But I do think he is a good coach, and will get things headed in the right direction once again.

11. Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech (227-146, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Williams has turned around the Virginia Tech program after winning just nine games in 2013-14. In Buzz’s first season, he won 11 games overall and two games in conference. In his last three years, the Hokies have won 63 games and has finished above .500 in the ACC all three years. But he has failed to finish above seventh in the ACC and has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game, even though the two tournament losses were close losses to Wisconsin and Alabama. Williams has done a solid job, but will need to make a run soon at Virginia Tech, as he will be entering his fifth year. He averaged more than 23 wins per season with Marquette and made the Sweet 16 twice and an Elite 8.

10. Chris Holtmann, Ohio State (139-94, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Holtmann’s record is a little deceiving, as he turned around a Gardner-Webb program that had not had a winning record since 2005-06. In his first two seasons with the Runnin’ Bulldogs, they went 23-41 and did not finish higher than ninth in the Big South. However, in his third season, he led them to a 21-13 record and a berth in the CIT. He was hired to take over for a Butler legend in Brad Stevens and was 70-31 in three seasons and reached the Sweet 16 in 2017. I was tempted to put him higher after what happened this past season. Ohio State let Thad Matta go after a successful stint with the Buckeyes but had a few rough years at the end of his tenure. The Buckeyes hired Holtmann to try to get them into the tournament for the first time in three years, and he exceeded expectations in year one. Despite being ranked low in the preseason rankings in the Big Ten, Holtmann led the Buckeyes to a 25-9 record and second place finish in the Big Ten. If Big Ten Player of the Year Keita Bates-Diop comes back for his senior season, the Buckeyes will challenge for the conference championship once again.

9. Archie Miller, Indiana (155-78, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

After a successful stint at Dayton in which he led the Flyers to NCAA Tournament appearances in his final four years, Miller headed to Indiana to take over for Tom Crean. At Dayton, he went 139-63, but was unable to carry over his success to Bloomington, at least right away. His tenure with the Hoosiers got off to a rocky start when they were blown out at home by Indiana State in the opener. Indiana was 12-12 to start out the season, but won four straight to gain confidence down the stretch. But the Hoosiers lost three straight to finish the season, including a loss to No. 14 seed Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament. Next year, Miller brings back five of his top seven scorers, including his leading scorer Juwan Morgan. He has a good recruiting class coming in, so the Hoosiers will not be down for long.

8. Mick Cronin, Cincinnati (337-164, 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

One of the best seasons in Cincinnati history went up in flames early on in the NCAA Tournament, as the Bearcats failed to reach the second weekend as a No. 2 seed. Still, that was a fantastic season for Cronin’s bunch. Cincinnati only loses two players, so the Cats could be back atop the American Athletic Conference once again. However, one of the players they do lose is AAC Player of the Year Gary Clark, so he will be a big loss. But Cincinnati is no stranger to big losses, and Cronin keeps churning out successful teams. Cronin has a reputation of his teams flaming out early in the tournament, though, as his teams have averaged more than 26 wins per season in the last five years, but none of those teams have even reached the second weekend.

7. Jamie Dixon, TCU (373-150, 12 NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

After posting a 73 percent winning percentage with the Pitt Panthers, he moved on to his alma mater, TCU. Pitt was getting frustrated since Dixon had not made it past the first weekend since 2009. Prior to Dixon’s arrival in Fort Worth, the Horned Frogs were a doormat. In Trent Johnson’s four years with the program, TCU only had one winning season and was a combined 8-64 in conference play and never finished higher than ninth in the conference. Dixon quickly helped turn the program around, going 24-15 in his first year at the helm and led the Horned Frogs to the NIT championship. He used that as a springboard to this past season in which TCU won 21 games and earned its first NCAA Tournament berth since 1998. Heading into next season, Dixon will lose his top two scorers, but he certainly has this program headed in the right direction. The program that was frustrated with Dixon? Yeah....not so much. Pitt just fired Kevin Stallings after a season in which it went 0-18 in ACC play.

6. Bruce Pearl, Auburn (532-207, nine NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Pearl came in and took over the Auburn Tigers, which had just won 18 of 68 conference games under the previous coach, Tony Barbee. He needed a few years, but Pearl was able to turn the program around. In his first three seasons with the Tigers, he failed to reach .500 in conference play and did not finish above 11th in the SEC. That all changed this season when he led Auburn to an SEC championship and its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2003. That is after turning Tennessee into a power. In his first four seasons in Knoxville, he never finished lower than second in the SEC East and won at least 21 games each year, including a 31-5 season in 2007-08. His fifth year at Tennessee, he led the Vols to a 28-9 season and a berth in the Elite 8, where they would fall one point short against Michigan State. Auburn only had one senior on the roster, so with everyone else returning, the Tigers should be in contention for another SEC championship.

5. Mike Brey, Notre Dame (502-252, 14 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16, two Elite 8s)

Brey has had a solid tenure as the coach for Notre Dame, making the tournament 12 of his 18 years with the Fighting Irish, including back-to-back trips to the Elite 8 in 2015 and 2016. His Irish struggled this past year without leading scorer Bonzie Colson, which led them to missing the Big Dance for the first time since 2014. It is a little concerning for him that other than those back-to-back Elite 8 appearances, the Fighting Irish haven’t made it past the first weekend since 2003. The 59-year-old Brey may have only a few more chances at his elusive first trip the Final Four.

4. Matt Painter, Purdue (320-154, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, four Sweet 16s)

I really thought Purdue had a chance to make the Final Four throughout the regular season. Purdue had everything needed....a good big in Isaac Haas and shooters everywhere. But the Boilermakers struggled down the stretch following a 19-game winning streak. Then, Haas was hurt in the first game of the NCAA Tournament and Purdue never stood much of a chance of reaching San Antonio. This team finished with the most wins in the history of the program, but the Haas injury was a killer. Despite having at least 25 wins in seven of his seasons, he cannot get over the hump, or even make the Elite 8. His predecessor Gene Keady was the same way, being bounced in the Sweet 16 three times and the Elite 8 twice. He’ll have to replace several key contributors from this year’s team, but will return one of the best players in the Big Ten, Carsen Edwards. It will be interesting to see if Painter (and Purdue) will finally be able to get over the hump, as the Boilermakers haven’t made the Final Four since 1980.

3. Chris Mack, Louisville (215-97, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Mack was the lead man for Xavier for nine seasons before heading to Louisville after the Cardinals moved on from interim coach David Padgett. The Mack hire was an Aaron Judge homer for Louisville, and he will have the facilities and resources to help get the Cardinals back to the Final Four. The 48-year-old Mack led the Musketeers to the second weekend of the Big Dance four times during his nine-year career at his alma mater. But in his best year, this past year when his team went 29-6 and earned a No. 1 seed, they couldn’t make it past the opening weekend. Go figure. He won more than 20 games in every season but one and had at least 24 wins five seasons, including his last three. Nothing against Xavier, but it is just a matter of time before Mack reaches the Final Four with Louisville, and heading to the Cardinals was great for his career.

2. Tony Bennett, Virginia (288-119, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Oof, Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers had an incredible season, but what a way for it to end. Virginia rolled through the regular season, going 28-2, and won the ACC Tournament, beating North Carolina to win it. Virginia was 31-2 but lost to UMBC, being the first No. 1 to lose to a 16. Many thought a 16 would eventually win, but this was a dominating performance, as the Cavaliers lost by 20. The 74 points given up was the most points surrendered in regulation since also allowing 74 against North Carolina in February of 2016. This loss will be a black mark on what otherwise is a tremendous resume for Bennett. Just one thing is missing: a Final Four. Virginia has become a National power, winning at least 29 games in four of the last five seasons. But in those five seasons, the Cavaliers only made it past the first weekend twice. Virginia has won the ACC regular season three times in the last five seasons, but the program will not be considered an elite current program until there is success in the tournament.

1. Sean Miller, Arizona (367-121, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, four Elite 8s)

If Bennett deserves an “oof,” Miller does as well. The Arizona Wildcats came into the NCAA Tournament playing really well, winning five consecutive and eight of nine, and that one loss was in overtime. The Wildcats rolled through the Pac 12 Tournament, winning all three games by double digits. Arizona had perhaps the best player in college basketball in Deandre Ayton, who may be the No. 1 overall draft pick in June. The fourth-seeded Wildcats then fell on their face, getting crushed by the Buffalo Bulls by 21. This could have been the team to break the drought for Miller, especially with the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds all losing before the Sweet 16. It does not help that two of the best teams Miller has had ran into Frank Kaminsky in the Elite 8. His teams have won the conference four of the last five seasons, and has hit at least 30 wins in three of those years. At some point, though, Miller will break through, you’d think. It is a mystery how he has yet to reach the Final Four. I know I have been saying this for awhile, but it is just a matter of time for him.

No comments:

Post a Comment