It is that time of year once again. With Selection Sunday in four days, it is time once again for me to complain about the love for the power conference schools instead of giving at-large spots to deserving mid-major schools.
First off, and I have said this from day one: an NCAA Tournament appearance should be a reward for a terrific season. I would much rather see a mid-major team that had 25 wins over a major conference school that ended the regular season with 19 or 20 wins. Is 20 wins a real accomplishment for power schools? Fans from said power schools and members of the selection committee will always point to the RPI and take it as gospel. The RPI is due to playing in a power conference and many really good mid-majors cannot schedule top teams unless the teams have a traditional game (such as Wisconsin and Green Bay) or a connection (Green Bay/Virginia played due to Tony Bennett connection). Unless it is a perennial top mid-major team like Gonzaga or Wichita State, it would be a lose-lose scenario for the power school. That hurts a mid-major’s RPI by not being able to schedule top notch teams. That hurts when the committee looks at record RPI vs. top 50 or top 100 teams. Many good mid-majors are not able to schedule many teams that fit that criteria.
As a mid-major, you cannot have an off day. There is virtually no margin for error. But, more often than not, even great mid-major teams slip up. The team may have a bad shooting game or the opponent may just catch fire, but the committee sees that as a black eye. If that happens against a power conference school, it does not hurt as much since their RPI is much better than some random school from the Ohio Valley or Summit or Horizon.
Since it still bothers me to this day and this one hits close, I was looking at some stats for the 2014 NCAA Tournament. As a graduate of Green Bay, I will use the Phoenix as an example. Green Bay was 24-5 on the year. Two of those losses came to Wisconsin (which went to the Final Four that year and Green Bay lost by one score) and Harvard, one of the best mid-major teams (it was close until the closing minutes). One of the losses was an ugly one to Eastern Michigan and one was to hot-shooting Milwaukee, while the other was to Valparaiso in which Alec Brown was out. Among the wins, the Phoenix knocked off the eventual ACC champ, Virginia.
North Carolina State finished the regular season and conference tournament with a record of 21-13, and made the tournament as the final seed in the dance. NC State was a few spots ahead in the RPI and Green Bay had a slight advantage in BPI and KenPom. The Wolfpack had eight games against the RPI top 25.....and won a single game, while Green Bay went 1-1 in such games. Against teams in the RPI top 100, NC State was 6-10, while Green Bay was 4-3. The two teams also had two common opponents: Virginia and Detroit. The Phoenix went 3-0 against those teams, while NC State went 1-1, including a 31-point pounding in Raleigh against UVA. To this day, I think there is no way the Wolfpack should have made it over the Phoenix, but North Carolina State gets preferential treatment due to being in the ACC.
Now, back to this year. How in the world are teams like Illinois and Wake Forest still in contention for an NCAA Tournament berth? The Illini are 18-13 and the Demon Deacons are 19-12. Are we really going to reward mediocrity like that? Illinois State, on the other hand, finished 27-6. Sure, the strength of schedule in 155, but part of that is due to the fact that the Ohio Valley is down as a conference this year. Still, a 27-win season is a damn good season for the Redbirds and I would much rather see them in the field than Illinois or Wake Forest or Syracuse. Same with Middle Tennessee. Obviously, they are still involved the Conference USA Tournament, but if they were to lose, the Blue Raiders would be on the bubble. They might still get in, but it would be close. Same goes with UT-Arlington if the Mavericks were to lose in the Sun Belt Tournament.
It does not happen often, and I know the selection committee would never ask for my opinion, but I will always defend the mid-major. It is a shame that some of the best mid-majors don’t go to the tournament due to their opponent in the conference tournament getting hot and losing and not being able to go in as an at-large. Look at VCU and George Mason, for instance. Both were at-large mid-major teams that proved their worth in the tournament. I guess we will all found out in four days.
No comments:
Post a Comment