When Wisconsin runs the ball...
All of this depends on the health of Jonathan Taylor, who left the Illinois game in the second quarter and did not return. Even if it was just precautionary, I doubt he is at full strength this week and the drop off between him and the other running backs is huge. In the first half against Illinois, the Badgers rushed for 127 yards on 27 carries and Taylor rushed for 73 yards on 12 carries before being taken out. In the second half, Wisconsin rushed for just 41 yards on 18 carries. After a promising freshman campaign, sophomore Bradrick Shaw is having a rough year so far, just averaging 3.8 yards per carry and cannot seem to break any tackles. If a play is blocked for three yards, that is all he will get. With Taylor, he has a chance to break tackles and go the distance every time he touches the football. The freshman is fourth in the country in rushing yards, despite the low number of yards against Illinois. As a team, Wisconsin is 16th in the country in rush yards per game with nearly 246. Indiana is 65th in the country in rush yards per game allowed, but only allow 3.8 yards per carry. Power teams have been able to run on them a bit, though. The defense that Indiana plays is suceptable against those kinds of teams due to the small stature of the Hoosiers defense. In the Michigan win over Indiana earlier this month, the Wolverines ran for 271 and more than six yards a carry, with Karan Higdon running 25 times for 200 yards and three scores. Michigan State’s L.J. Scott’s numbers won’t wow you, but he had a solid game against Indiana, his second most rushing yards in a game this season. I believe Wisconsin will able to rush the ball pretty well. Maybe they won’t early on, but the Badgers offensive line will eventually wear down the small front seven for the Hoosiers.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Alex Hornibrook is coming off a subpar performance against Illinois. In terms of QBR, this was his worst performance of the year. Against the Illini, Hornibrook went 10-of-19 for 135 yards and a pick. It was also his first week this year without at least one touchdown pass. After a very good non-conference performance, he has struggled mightily during conference play. His completion percentage is decent at 60 percent, but he has thrown just five touchdowns and seven interceptions in Big Ten play has thrown at least one pick in every game. Once again, Davis is questionable and he could be needed this week. In pass defense, the Hoosiers are 19th in yards per game, but has given up 12 touchdown passes this season and has only picked off two passes. Indiana has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times so far, which is tied for fourth in the conference. Davis is questionable, but was in pads starting Tuesday, which is encouraging. Quintez Cephus is also questionable, and the Badgers will need him. Hornibrook will need to take care of the ball in order for Bucky to come out of Bloomington with a win.
Edge: Indiana
When Indiana runs...
The Hoosiers may be without two of their running backs this week, and they already struggle to run the ball. Against Maryland, Indiana only rushed for 73 yards on 35 carries. As a team, IU is 104th in the country in rush yards per game, which is 12th in the Big Ten. However, Illinois, which ranks last in the Big Ten in that category, rushed for 134 yards with Kendrick Foster rushing for 66 yards on 15 carries. Wisconsin struggled to defend Illinois’ running quarterback, Cam Thomas, who rushed for 78 yards on 10 carries. But the Wisconsin defense will only have to worry about that if Peyton Ramsey plays. Despite averaging just 93.8 rushing yards per game allowed, which is fifth in the country, Wisconsin has been a bit leaky at times defending the run. In the last four games, the opposing team's starting running back has rushed for an average of 4.8 yards per carry against them. Sacks by the Wisconsin defense has helped out make the rush defense numbers look quite a bit better. Chikwe Obasih will likely make his return this week, which will help. He has not played since the opener and is chomping at the bit to get back on the field. Maybe he will help the rush defense be better than it has been recently. With a few of Indiana’s running backs out, Wisconsin should be able to slow down the Hoosiers ground attack and tee off on the Indiana quarterbacks.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Indiana passes...
Last week, Indiana had to use two quarterbacks after starter redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey had to leave the game twice due to his right knee. He was replaced by senior Richard Lagow, who started the season as the starter before being replaced by Ramsey. The freshman, who has completed 65 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and five picks, may be out this week for Indiana. Ramsey also poses a threat on the ground, rushing for 226 yards and a pair of scores so far. Lagow has struggled this year, completing just 56.8 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He does not pose any threat on the ground. Against Maryland, he was 12-of-21 for 131 yards and two scores. The Hoosiers likely will not have a pair of running backs for the game on Saturday, and may have to play similar to against Maryland, where the Indiana quarterbacks combined to throw 62 times. Having a team put the ball in the air that many times could be good news for Bucky. Whomever is the quarterback, he has some very good receivers to throw to. The group is led by junior Simmie Cobbs. The 6-4 target has 54 catches for 600 yards and five scores, including a 10-catch 138-yard performance against Maryland. Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal will face another challenge this week, a different type of challenge than they faced two weeks ago against Maryland's D.J. Moore. Junior Luke Timian has 359 yards and a touchdown on this season, and had 13 catches for 91 yards against the Terps. Indiana freshman Whop Philyor had also had 13 catches, for 127 yards and a score. Wisconsin’s freshman cornerback Dontye Carriere-Williams will also have to step up for Bucky’s defense. No matter what statistic you look at, this Badgers pass defense is one of the best in the nation. Yards per game: 15th, opponents QB rating: 1st, sacks: T-5th, touchdowns allowed: T-4th, interceptions: 8th, yards per attempt: 5th, opponents completion percentage: 10th. It will be a fun matchup between Indiana’s wide receivers and Wisconsin’s cornerbacks. Indiana has allowed 20 sacks, which is 91st in the country, so the Badgers should be able to put some pressure on whichever quarterback plays for Indiana.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Both teams have very reliable kickers, with Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone 8-of-10 so far, while Indiana’s Griffin Oakes is 11-of-12, with his only miss being a blocked field goal from 51 yards away. Punting units are similar, but Indiana did allow a blocked punt against Maryland for a score. Indiana’s punt returner is out and its kick return unit won’t get many opportunities against Zach Hintze, who is a touchback machine.
Edge: Push
Overview
Much of this will depend on the health of Wisconsin. If everyone plays, I think Wisconsin wins by three scores. Jonathan Taylor needs to be out there for the Badgers. He is by far the biggest threat Wisconsin has. Quintez Cephus too. Both teams are banged up and if Indiana has Lagow at quarterback, the Badgers defense will have plenty of chances to make plays. If Wisconsin can limit big plays and avoids turnovers, Bucky will be fine. It is tough to have long sustained drives against the Badgers defense. I have a feeling Wisconsin will sack the Indiana quarterback close to 10 times and pick off three passes to set the offense up with a short field. It will be a tough game, as the Hoosiers need to win, as they fight for bowl eligibility. However, I think Wisconsin’s ground game will wear down Indiana’s small front seven as the game goes on and the Badgers will pull away late.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Indiana 10
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