Two weeks ago, Minnesota crushed Purdue 41-10 in Minneapolis, but lost 24-14 at home to Northwestern. In the last meeting at Camp Randall, Wisconsin fell behind at halftime 17-7, but forced Mitch Leidner to throw four interceptions and the Badgers outscored the Gophers 24-0 in the second half to emerge with the 31-17 win. The last two games in Madison, Wisconsin fell behind by double digits and outscored Minnesota a combined 45-7 in the second half. The Gophers have struggled mightily on the road this year, losing all four road games by an average of 23.5 points per game, including losing by a combined 49 to Illinois and Nebraska, which have a combined record of 8-14. P.J. Fleck is looking for his first signature win and his first bowl game as Minnesota’s head coach. Wisconsin has won 10 straight trophy games with the last loss coming to Iowa in the 2015 Big Ten opener.
When Wisconsin runs...
Sophomore Jonathan Taylor is coming off the best day of his career and one of the best in school history, running 33 times for 321 yards and three scores in last week’s triple-overtime victory at Purdue. With that big win, Taylor has extended the lead for most rushing yards in the nation with 1,869, which is now 348 more than second place, Darrell Henderson of Memphis. He is simply put, a monster. In less than two years, he is just 154 yards shy of 4,000 in his career. Amazingly, he is just 2,559 yards behind former San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey’s 6,405 yards. Yes, we all know Ron Dayne still has the all-time rushing record, but the NCAA record book has not changed it to allow Dayne’s bowl games to count yet. He is also just 3,279 away from Dayne’s all-time record. Unreal. I know he won’t stick around all four years, but if he did, he would shatter every rushing record. Taylor’s 1,869 yards are sixth in a single season in Wisconsin history and is just 240 behind Dayne’s 2,109 for second place. He is also one rushing touchdown away from making his way into the top 10 for rushing scores in a season. Overall, the Badgers are fourth in the country in rushing at 277.4 yards per game, and the three teams ranked above them run the triple option. The Badgers average of 6.3 yards per carry only trails Oklahoma, Clemson and Memphis. Backup running back Taiwan Deal was injured against Penn State on a long carry early in the second half and missed last week’s win at Purdue, and is questionable for the battle for the axe. Defensively, Minnesota is 74th in rush yards allowed per game with 170.7 and has given up 19 scores on the ground. However, the Gophers have allowed an average of a whopping 5.2 yards per carry, which ranks 116th out of the 130 FBS teams. Minnesota has done a much better job since firing defensive coordinator Robb Smith after being crushed by Illinois. Minnesota has not faced a rushing offense anywhere near Wisconsin’s level in those two games. The Gophers defense has been especially bad on the road, where they have given up an average of 45 points per game in their four road contests (all losses). In those games, the defense has allowed an AVERAGE of 305 (!!!!) yards on the ground, with three of the four gaining at least 315 yards and two of a least 380. This should be a game where Taylor rushes for 200 again. Minnesota’s defense is improved, but I don’t see them slowing down the Taylor Express.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Unfortunately, we still do not know the status of starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook. Backup Jack Coan finally played well in the fourth quarter against Purdue, leading the Badgers back from a 14-point deficit to force overtime. Hornibrook was in pads, throwing with Danny Davis this week, but that doesn’t mean he has been cleared. Ideally, the Badgers would like Hornibrook to play the entire final two games and be able to use this as a redshirt year for Coan. But he’ll start again if No. 12 cannot go. Amazingly, Hornibrook’s 45 touchdown passes is just two shy of third in school history (47 by John Stocco) and three behind second (48 by Joel Stave). He is also just 22 behind Scott Tolzien for No. 5 on the all-time passing list at Wisconsin. In his four games (or three and a half), Coan has thrown for 442 yards with four touchdowns and two picks (both against Penn State) and has not thrown for more than 160 yards in a game. He has multiple weapons who can beat you. Davis only had four catches for 36 yards last game, but had two huge touchdown grabs in the fourth quarter to tie it up, including a one-handed snag that was SportsCenter’s top play of the day. After catching just six passes for 52 yards in the prior five games, A.J. Taylor had five receptions for 89 yards. He leads the team in yards with 495. Three players have at least 29 receptions, and Davis leads the team with 30 despite missing the first two games. After slowly getting back into things, he has hauled in at least four catches in four of the past five games. Five receivers have at least 20 grabs, so the ball gets spread around. Minnesota comes in allowing 226.8 yards through the air per game, which is 64th, but its yards per attempt checks in at No. 49. For comparison, the Badgers rank 55th in that same category. In the last two games, against two good quarterbacks (Clayton Thorsen and David Blough), the Gophers allowed just 187.5 passing yards per game and just a single touchdown.
Edge: Minnesota
When Minnesota runs...
The Gophers have been hit with the injury bug this season, as both Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith are out for the season. Leading Goldy Gopher on the ground this season is Mohamed Ibrahim, a freshman from Maryland. Even with the top two backs out, Ibrahim has done terrific so far. Despite playing in just eight games, he has 815 yards rushing. In his last three games, he has rushed for an average of 117 yards and rushed for at least 98 in all three, and has scored three times. In the three, against Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, he has averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. Overall, the Gophers have averaged 160 yards on the ground per game, which is 77th in the FBS. Part of the reason their yards per carry is only 4.1 is they have given up 26 sacks. Without sacks included, it is at 4.4. Another freshman, Bryce Williams, is the backup, as he has run for 450 yards and a pair of scores. While the Badgers run defense has improved, it is still not great. The unit has moved up to 53rd in rushing yards allowed and 77th in opponents yards per carry after being close to 100th for awhile this season. Last week, Wisconsin held Purdue to just 76 yards on the ground and 2.5 yards per carry. Freshman nose tackle Bryson Williams and defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk, along with the Badgers terrific group of linebackers will need to slow down Ibrahim and force the young Minnesota quarterbacks to beat them.
Edge: Minnesota
When Minnesota passes...
The Gophers started the season with walk-on freshman Zack Annexstad, and he struggled, completing just 52 percent of his passes, including 49 percent in conference play. As a starter, he led the Gophers to a 3-4 record and 0-4 n Big Ten play. During the team’s 53-28 loss at Nebraska, he was replaced by fellow freshman Tanner Morgan. The latter has led the Gophers to two wins in his four games as a starter, including a 41-10 demolition of Purdue at TCF Bank Stadium. In those games, Minnesota has averaged 31 points per game. Granted, only one of those defenses rank above 72nd in points allowed per game (Northwestern, scored 14), but still is a step in the right direction for them. Last week against Northwestern, Morgan threw two interceptions and fumbled three times (losing one). There will be growing pains for the young quarterback, but he has one of the best receivers in the conference to throw the ball to, Tyler Johnson. The junior wide receiver, who missed last year’s game against Wisconsin with injury, leads the Big Ten and is 11th nationally in receiving yards with 1,036. Despite missing the final two games last year, Johnson had 677 yards receiving and seven scores. This year, he has only had one game in which he was held under 50 yards and had a string of four consecutive 100-yard games. Johnson has also caught 10 of his team’s 18 touchdown passes on the season. To put his 1,000-yard season in perspective, Wisconsin has only had four seasons with 1,000-yard receivers in its history, and two of those were by Lee Evans back in the early 2000s. The Badgers cornerbacks will need to bring their A-game in order to slow him down. In addition to Johnson, Minnesota has two more with at least 380 receiving yards. Freshman Rashod Bateman has more receptions and yards than any Badger, catching 47 passes for 648 yards and six touchdowns. He has had just 70 yards combined the last two weeks, but had nearly 300 in the two before that. Another freshman, Chris Autman-Bell, has also had a nice freshman season, catching 24 passes for 382 yards. After seemingly having made strides in pass defense, Wisconsin has fallen back the past few weeks. Last week, Purdue’s David Blough threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns. The downswing started when Rutgers’ Artur Sitkowski, who has been atrocious this season, threw for 261 yards and a touchdown. That was the second most passing yards he has thrown for this season, and only the third game in which he did not turn the ball over. Wisconsin will be able to get after the Minnesota quarterbacks, though, as the Gophers offensive line has allowed 26 sacks this season. including 22 in conference play. Andrew Van Ginkel, playing in his final game in Madison on Saturday, is finally back near full health after battling injuries much of the early part of the season. At Purdue, he had two sacks, and he has had 2.5 in his last two games. A healthy Van Ginkel makes the Badgers pass rush more potent.
Edge: Push
Special Teams
Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is having his worst year since 2015. He has made just 10-of-14 field goals. Last year, Minnesota’s kicker Emmit Carpenter missed both field goal attempts against Wisconsin. This year, he is having a decent year, making 12-of-16, including 2-of-2 from beyond 50. Jacob Herbers is a terrific punter for Minnesota, ranking second in the Big Ten in net punting at 41.2, while Wisconsin ranks last. Bucky has a slight edge in kick returning.
Edge: Minnesota
Overview
Wisconsin has won 14 straight over Minnesota, and I think it will move to 15. The Gophers are fighting for bowl eligibility, but the game is at Camp Randall. Minnesota is a young team, and the school hasn’t won in Madison in football since 1994. I believe we’ll see Jonathan Taylor early and often. I expect him to get to 200 yards on the ground once again. Wisconsin is 5-1 at home this season, while Minnesota is winless on the road. My money is on the Badgers. I could see Minnesota keeping it close for a bit, but Wisconsin pulling away in the fourth.
Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 20
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