When Wisconsin runs…
Jonathan Taylor struggled against Northwestern, being held to 46 yards, which is by far his fewest rushing output this season and the second lowest in his career to go along with a pair of fumbles. The two fumbles give him 10 total for his career. I would look for a bounce back this week against a Rutgers team that allows 224 yards on the ground per game. Even with his poor showing against Northwestern, he still leads the country in rushing yards with 1,155, and rushing yards per game (144.4). Wisconsin still ran for 165 yards and 5.2 yards per carry, but couldn’t consistently move the ball down the field due to turnovers and lack of ability to move the ball through the air. Sophomore running back Garrett Groshek led the way with 68 yards on just seven carries. As I mentioned above, to say Rutgers struggles stopping the run would be an understatement. The Scarlet Knights come in 13th in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game, ranking only ahead of Illinois’ 248.1. The Badgers ran for 357 yards in a 49-20 win over Illinois two weeks ago. Rutgers’ rush defense only allowed 128 yards against Northwestern, and allowed less than three yards per carry. But before that, Tyler Johnson ran for 132 yards on just nine carries, leading the Terrapins to nearly 300 yards on the ground against the Rutgers defense. Their run defense is much worse on the road than at home. Of course, they played Texas State, Indiana and Northwestern at home, which aren’t great running teams. I will say, they played Kansas in Lawrence, which ranks 95th in rush yards per game and the Jayhawks rushed for 405 against them. In the five home games, the Scarlet Knights have allowed 872 yards on the ground for an average of 174.4 per game and 4.4 yards per carry. On the road, they have allowed an average of 306.7 per game and 7.1 yards per carry. Statistically, Wisconsin is the best ground attack they have faced (or will face) this season. The Badgers rank fifth in rush yards per game with 267.5 per game. Maryland is No. 2 in the conference, and the Terps ran for 290 against the Scarlet Knights Oct. 13. I imagine Wisconsin will ran for around 300 yards. This may be a game to get Bradrick Shaw some reps in game action, as he has not played at all this year.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Wisconsin received some good injury news Thursday when Alex Hornibrook was taken off the injury report, so he is good to go for this week against Rutgers. He is sixth on the all-time school passing list with 5,157 yards. He is 114 behind Scott Tolzien for fifth on the passing list. Hornibrook also has 45 career touchdown passes, which is just two behind John Stocco for third in school history and is three behind Joel Stave for second in school history in touchdown passes. He is 85th in passing yards per game with 178.7 yards per game, but 47th in quarterback rating, above quarterbacks such as Nick Fitzgerald, Trace McSorley and possible first round pick Drew Lock. Rutgers is 19th in the country in passing yards allowed per game, but some of that is due to the fact that they can’t stop the run and are generally are behind by so much that they don’t have to face the pass much. Rutgers is 67th in opponents passer rating, which is below average. Hornibrook has solid weapons. A.J. Taylor and Jake Ferguson are reliable weapons, as is Danny Davis. They should have better weeks with No. 12 back. Rutgers’ four interceptions are 108th and its minus-12 turnover differential is tied for last in the country.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Rutgers runs…
Like Northwestern, Rutgers is not a good rushing team. But that didn’t stop Northwestern from running for 182 yards against the Badgers defense this past Saturday. Rutgers gains 131 yards on the ground per game, which is 104th in the country. They average 3.85 yards per carry. Wisconsin checks in at 76th in rush yards allowed per carry. How the mighty have fallen. The Badgers yards per carry against is 4.9, which ranks 102nd. Nose tackle Olive Sagapolu will be out, but defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk may be back. For Rutgers, three running backs have at least 60 carries this season, led by the 5-9 Rasheem Blackshear, who has carried the ball 90 times for 399 yards. He has only received six carries each the past two games, though. Freshman Isaih Pacheco has received 33 carries the past two games for 183 yards and two scores. He had only carried the ball eight times in the previous three weeks combined. Wisconsin plays better at home, so I could see the Badgers being able to slow down Rutgers running the ball.
Edge: Push
When Rutgers passes…
For as bad as Rutgers is running the ball, the Scarlet Knights are even worse at passing it. In yards per game as a team, Rutgers is 121st with 138.9 yards. To say Rutgers freshman quarterback Artur Sitkowski is struggling would be an understatement. Among qualified players, Sitkowski has the worst quarterback rating in the country, and by a wide margin. His quarterback rating is 73.7 and the second worst is 88.1. The freshman’s yards per attempt is just 4.0, which is embarrassing. For the year, he has completed just 49.5 percent of his 208 pass attempts with three touchdowns and an incredible 15 interceptions, which is easily the most in college football. He has only cracked 100 passing yards three times in his eight games, and had a game against Maryland this year where he completed two of 16 passes for eight yards and threw four interceptions. That might be the worst game I have ever seen a quarterback play. Starting safeties D’Cota Dixon and Scott Nelson are both questionable. Expect to see freshmen cornerbacks Rachad Wildgoose and Faion Hicks get the start. Three freshmen will likely start in the secondary. It is good to get them experience moving forward. Loudermilk would help with the secondary, but he was not on the initial depth chart for this week. The depth chart has three freshmen starting along the defensive line. Any team would take lumps if it started six freshmen on defense. But the young secondary has played well recently. Wisconsin’s secondary did well against Clayton Thorson last week, only allowing 167 yards and one touchdown, while picking him off three times. In the last three games, which includes games against Thorson and Michigan’s Shea Patterson, the Badgers have allowed fewer than 130 yards passing per game and have allowed just one touchdown and have intercepted six passes. This secondary will only improve.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Rafael Gaglianone has had a down year so far, connecting on just six of his nine field goal attempts, including just one of his last three. Still, he is one of the most reliable kickers in the country and in the history of Wisconsin football. With his field goal make against Northwestern, he passed Todd Gregoire for the most field goals in school history with 66. His two extra points made moved him to within seven of tying Philip Welch for the most all-time. He could reach that Saturday with as poor as Rutgers is. With Anthony Lotti struggling, Wisconsin turned to Conner Allen…..who struggled as well. His average was less than 37 yards per punt. Sophomore kicker Justin Davidovicz has been a bright spot for the Golden Knights, making seven of his eight field goal attempts and all 12 of his extra points. Adam Korsak has a 43-yard average as a punter, which is fifth in the conference, and his net average is fourth. Neither return game is much to speak of.
Edge: Rutgers
Overview
Wisconsin should win this one going away. The Badgers are around a 30-point favorite. Rutgers can’t defend the run or pass and can’t run or pass on offense. Other than that, the Scarlet Knights are really good. Hopefully this is a ‘get right’ game before the Badgers head to State College and West Lafayette for two straight road games. It isn’t panic time for Wisconsin, but if it struggles to win, or loses to this team, it will be panic time in Madison.
Prediction: Wisconsin 41, Rutgers 13
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