Penn State won the last matchup between the two when it came back from a 28-7 second quarter deficit to defeat Wisconsin in the 2016 Big Ten Championship game. Overall, the series is tied 9-9 with Penn State having won the previous three meetings. The game will be televised on ABC at 11 a.m. CST. Coming into the season, it would have been considered a matchup between Heisman contenders Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley and Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor. While Penn State’s quarterback is one of the best around, one of the storylines will be if Wisconsin’s signal caller will play. This is a big game to see which team that was ranked preseason top 10 can try and salvage their season a bit.
When Wisconsin runs...
Jonathan Taylor bounced back from a poor game against Northwestern with a 208-yard, three touchdown performance against Rutgers. Penn State is coming off a game in which it allowed 259 yards on the ground and five yards per carry. Taylor is tops in the country in rushing yards (1,363) and rush yards per game (151.44). His 3,340 yards rushing rank 12th all-time in Wisconsin history, which is five yards behind Heisman Trophy winner Alan Ameche for 11th and 73 behind John Clay for 10th. He should once again crack the top 10 for most rushing yards in a single season in school history. As a team, Wisconsin ranks fourth in the country in rush yards per game (273) and its 6.2 yards per carry also ranks fourth. Uncharacteristically, Penn State is 79th in rush yards allowed per game (172.2) and its 4.1 yards per carry average allowed is 59th. Against Michigan, Penn State allowed 259 yards on the ground. Illinois gained 245 yards rushing against the Nittany Lions. However, they are better at home than on the road. In the five home games, they have allowed just 577 yards on the ground (115.4) and 3.12 yards per carry. Penn State sophomore defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos has 13.5 tackles for loss, and he will be a challenge for the Wisconsin offensive line. Six players have at least five tackles for loss for the Lions. It will be a good matchup between the Wisconsin offensive line and Penn State defensive line. The Badgers offensive line will need to play well in order to win, especially if Hornibrook is not able to go.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Hornibrook left Saturdays game at halftime with a head injury, and his status for this Saturdays game is in doubt. Jack Coan did not play very well against Northwestern, but played better against Rutgers. In his starting debut, he went 20-of-31 for 158 yards and a touchdown, but his awkward handoff with Taylor was a turnover and he also lost a fumble on a play in which he fumbled twice. Both turnovers gave the Wildcats great field position inside the red zone. Following Hornibrook’s departure against Rutgers, Coan did not throw a pass in the third quarter, but he did complete five of seven passes for 64 yards and a touchdown in the fourth. He made a few third down conversions as well. One thing people are wondering about is him not throwing it downfield at all. He won’t be able to do that against Penn State’s secondary if he is the starter. If Hornibrook does play, he is currently sixth on the all-time passing list at Wisconsin, but would move up. He is currently 22 yards behind Scott Tolzien for fifth place, and he would likely make it to fourth place by the end of the year as he is just 378 yards behind Brooks Bollinger for fourth. Danny Davis is getting more involved, as he has had 15 receptions the last three games and he had 60 yards receiving, the most he has had this season. Jake Ferguson and A.J. Taylor are also solid weapons for whoever the Wisconsin quarterback is. For Penn State, Gross-Matos has seven sacks on the season, which is tied for second in the Big Ten and 16th in the country. Penn State has picked off nine passes on the season with those being made by six different passes. Three are tied for the team lead with two. Eleven players for the Nittany Lions have at least one sack, with Penn State sacking opposing quarterbacks 29 times this season so far, which is tied for tops in the Big Ten and seventh in the country. The Wisconsin offensive line has its work cut out for it.
Edge: Penn State
When Penn State runs...
Gone is the do-everything back, Saquon Barkley, but Penn State still has Miles Sanders, who has 848 yards and eight touchdowns and nearly six yards per carry. But he did most of his damage early on. He has only had three 100-yard games, including a 200-yard performance against Illinois earlier this season. The last three games, he has carried the ball 39 times for 148 yards for an average of just 3.79 yards per carry. Sanders did do well, though, against a good Michigan State defense, gaining 162 yards on just 17 carries. In addition to Sanders, quarterback Trace McSorley is also a dangerous runner. Even with sacks included, the senior signal caller has run for 611 yards and five yards per carry with nine touchdowns. Freshman Ricky Slade has 155 yards this year, but has not had any attempts since the Michigan State game Oct. 13. Overall, Penn State is 34th in rushing the ball with 207.9 yards per game. Nose tackle Olive Sagapolu missed the Rutgers game, and he will be out again this week. Wisconsin did well last week, but Rutgers is not a running juggernaut. The Badgers have moved up to 61st in rushing yards allowed per game and is 97th in yards per carry allowed. Wisconsin has had trouble stopping quarterbacks who can run this year, and McSorley can hurt you with his arm and his legs. This will be a tough one.
Edge: Penn State
When Penn State passes the ball...
Going into the season, McSorley was looked at as a Heisman Trophy contender. He has not lived up to that this year. So far, he is just completing 52 percent of his passes and is averaging less than 200 yards passing per game. He has just thrown 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. The senior has a quarterback rating of 123.1, which is 92nd. In comparison, Hornibrook’s passer rating is 135.5, which is 61st. He has been sacked 19 times this season, which is tied for the second most in the Big Ten. Sophomore wide receiver KJ Hamler is his top target, having caught 28 passes for 517 yards and five touchdowns, including four catches for 138 and a electrifying 93-yard touchdown in the crushing loss to Ohio State. Senior Juwan Johnson, who has had a problem with drops this year, did not play in the loss to Michigan, but he does have 293 yards receiving on the year. Freshman tight end Pat Freiermuth only has 16 catches on the year, but four of them have been for touchdowns. He is coming off his best receiving day of his career, yardage-wise, with 51 yards. The freshman has caught a touchdown in four of his last six games. Running back Miles Sanders does have 16 catches on the year, and Rutgers’ running back Raheem Blackshear caught eight passes for 162 yards against Wisconsin last Saturday. For the Badgers they are a banged up unit in the secondary. They did get D’Cota Dixon back against Rutgers, but fellow starting safety Scott Nelson has been out the last two games with a leg injury. It is a tall order going against Penn State, even if McSorley hasn’t played like his normal self so far this season.
Edge: Penn State
Special Teams
Rafael Gaglianone is 7-for-10 on field goals this year, as he knocked home a 32-yarder to extend his record for most field goals made in Wisconsin history to 67. He also made four extra points to pull within three of Philip Welch for most in school history. He very well could break that record, or at least tie it, against the Nittany Lions on Saturday. Penn State kicker Jake Pinegar is 9-of-13 on the year, but is 3-for-6 from beyond 40 yards on the season. Once again, Conner Allen handled the punting duties, and his two punts were both in Rutgers territory and both landed inside the Scarlet Knights 10. Nice job, but I wish the Badgers were more aggressive on offense and going for it. Penn State’s Blake Gillikin can be a weapon, as he averages 43 yards per punt and has placed 13 inside the 20. He has had one blocked this year, though. Opponents have returned 18 of his punts for an average of seven yards per return, so there may be a chance for Jack Dunn. Hamler is a dangerous kickoff returner for the Lions, averaging 27 yards per return. DeAndre Thompkins is even more dangerous at punt returner, as he averages better than 12 yards per return and has brought one back to the house this season at Pittsburgh.
Edge: Penn State
Overview
This is a tough one. Penn State is a little down this year compared to the last few, but Beaver Stadium is still one of the toughest places to play in America. McSorley is still a terrific quarterback who can light it up at any moment. Wisconsin saw that firsthand two years ago in the Big Ten Championship. While Sanders is no Barkley, he is still a really good back and Wisconsin’s defense has struggled stopping the run this year. I fear another blowout if Coan starts again, but I’ll say Penn State scores a late touchdown to seal the game.
Prediction: Penn State 34, Wisconsin 24
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