Wisconsin started the year with two convincing wins over overmatched competition, Western Kentucky and New Mexico, before being upset by BYU 24-21. That was the start of not only a bad season for Wisconsin, but a poor one for kicker Rafael Gaglianone as well, as he missed a potential game-tying field goal in the closing seconds. Wisconsin found its footing with two straight wins, including a huge win at Iowa when Alex Hornibrook found A.J. Taylor over the middle for 17 yards with less than a minute to play. But the Badgers would alternate wins and losses the remainder of the season, including losing the axe for the first time since 2003 with a 37-15 loss to Minnesota. The Badgers were devastated by injuries/suspensions to key players, including their quarterback, No. 1 wide receiver, entire secondary and 2/3 of their defensive line. We never saw what the team was capable of after the losses before the season of starting defensive end Garrett Rand (out for season), No. 1 wide receiver Quintez Cephus (suspension, sexual assault trial) and Isaiahh Loudermilk (missed part of season, was never fully healthy). That does not even count the transfers of defensive backs Dontye Carriere-Williams and Patrick Johnson. During the season, Hornibrook, nose tackle Olive Sagapolu, outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, right tackle David Edwards and the entire opening night secondary missed at least a portion of the season. Against Miami, Sagapolu, Rand and Cephus are all out, as well as inside linebacker Ryan Connelly.
As for the Hurricanes, ‘the U’ started out with a blowout loss to LSU, but would rebound with five straight victories. That would be proceeded by four straight losses mid-season and Miami’s dreams of a second straight New Year’s 6 bowl appearances were dashed. But the Canes would end the season with two straight victories, including a dominant 24-3 win over ACC Coastal Division champion Pittsburgh.
This is the sixth meeting between the two schools, including the third in bowl season. Wisconsin has won three of the previous five matchups, including the last two, in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl and last year’s Orange Bowl. Overall in postseason play, the Badgers have won their last four, including a pair of wins in New Year’s 6 bowls. Miami, on the other hand, has lost seven of its last eight bowls, with the only win coming in the Russell Athletic Bowl against West Virginia in 2016.
When Wisconsin runs...
Wisconsin is led by the Doak Walker Award winner Jonathan Taylor, who leads the nation in rushing with 1,989 yards on the ground. The last time we saw Taylor play, he had a solid, but a disappointing effort for him, as he ran for just 120 yards on 19 carries in the loss to Minnesota. But the week before that, he ran for 321 yards in a come-from-behind triple overtime win at Purdue. With 11 yards against Miami, he will become the third Badgers running back (fourth season) to reach the 2,000 yard mark. Taylor averages nearly 166 yards on the ground per game, and with 118, he would tie Ron Dayne’s 2,109 yards in his freshman year for the second most rushing yards in a season in Wisconsin history. Melvin Gordon’s program-record mark of 2,587 is out of reach, but second place would be a huge honor for No. 23. He is one shy of tying Brent Moss for the 10th most rushing touchdowns in a season in school history. Amazingly, Taylor is just 34 yards away from 4,000 in his career already, which is sixth in school history. I don’t expect him to stick around for all four years, but if he were to, he would shatter the NCAA record for most all-time career rushing yards.
Taylor is 49 yards away from James White for fifth in school history. and barring injury, he will cruise into second place next season. Enjoy him while he lasts. In last year’s game, he ran for 130 yards on 26 carries. As a team, Wisconsin averages 268.4 rushing yards per game, which is seventh nationally, and only behind Memphis and UCF in terms of teams that don’t run the triple option. The 6.3 yards per carry ranks fourth, only behind Clemson, Oklahoma and Memphis, and two of those teams made the College Football Playoff.
Defensively, Miami ranks 24th in the country, allowing 127.5 yards on the ground per game. The Hurricanes are the third best rush defense the Badgers have faced this year, after Iowa (8th) and Michigan (17th). In the two games against those two teams, Wisconsin ran for an average of 196.5 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. In wins this year, Miami has allowed just 632 yards and 2.5 yards per carry. In losses, the Canes defense allowed 898 yards and 4.1 yards per carry. One key may be getting to 120 yards on the ground. When giving up more than that mark, Miami is 1-5, but is 6-0 when allowing fewer than 120 rushing yards. The task became a bit more difficult with All-America defensive tackle Gerald Willis out with a hand injury. Without him, the Canes could have a tough time stopping the Taylor Express. Miami leads the country in tackles for loss per game with 10.5. Willis had 18 tackles for loss, which was top 15 in the country. Fellow defensive lineman Jonathan Garvin was not too far behind with 16. Four players on the Canes have at least 13 tackles for loss. The Badgers will have their hands full with the other three, but I believe Wisconsin will neutralize them and allow Taylor to have a nice game.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Many thought Hornibrook would carry the strong play from last year’s Orange Bowl into the 2018 season, but that hasn’t happened. In last year’s bowl meeting, the quarterback had arguably the strongest performance of his career, going 23-of-34 for 258 yards and a career-high four touchdowns in earning Orange Bowl MVP, leading the Badgers to the 10-point win. But it has been all downhill since for the junior quarterback. He has missed three and a half games with concussions, and after coming back to start in the regular season finale against Minnesota, he was not good. He threw for 189 yards with two touchdowns and three costly interceptions.
It remains to be seen if he’ll get a chance to break Bevell’s record since his poor play this year has made it likely that Paul Chryst will have a quarterback competition in 2019 between Hornibrook, Jack Coan, Chase Wolf and incoming freshman Graham Mertz. But days ago, it was announced that Coan would burn his redshirt and will be playing his fifth game (fourth start). The sophomore has completed 61 percent of his passes this season for 442 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. He is 1-2 as the starter, with his only win coming in the triple-overtime thriller at Purdue. In that game, Coan threw two late touchdowns to force overtime. This season, he has not thrown for more than 160 yards in a game. He does have some solid receivers at his disposal, led by wide receiver A.J. Taylor, who caught 30 passes for 508 yards and three touchdowns. Mr. Reliable Jake Ferguson caught 34 passes for 441 yards and four touchdowns. Danny Davis, who is coming off a 10-catch performance against Minnesota, led the team with 40 catches, despite missing the first two games of the season. Five players caught at least 20 passes for the Badgers this season. A.J. Taylor had a big game in last year’s meeting with eight catches for 105 yards and a tremendous one-handed touchdown grab, while Davis had three touchdown catches.
Eight players have at least one interception for Miami, with three having three picks. Last year, Sheldrick Redwine was victimized quite a bit in the Orange Bowl, but he had three interceptions this year. Trajan Bandy has had a tremendous year for the Hurricanes. While in coverage, he has only allowed 45 percent of passes to be caught and just a 58.8 passer rating against him. His PFF rating of 88 is ranked 13th in the country for cornerbacks. Eleven Miami players have at least a half a sack this year, led by Joe Jackson’s 8.5. Their 37 sacks ranks 11th in the country. Overall in pass defense, they are No. 1 in fewest passing yards allowed per game and No. 3 in opponent’s quarterback rating. Miami has only allowed 10 touchdown passes and has picked off 15 passes. Coan will need to take care of the ball and make clutch throws to keep the chains moving. It will also be interesting to see how the Canes respond to the loss of defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who took the head job at Temple earlier this month. He will coach in the game, but who knows if he will be all-in for it.
Edge: Miami
When Miami runs...
Miami has a two-headed monster at running back with Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas. Both running backs have at least 100 carries with both also averaging at least 5.8 yards per rush. They have combined to rush for 1,578 yards and 10 touchdowns and average 6.1 yards per carry. Both also have big play ability, as each have a touchdown of at least 70 yards. Wisconsin has not been good at stopping the run this year, so they will have their hands full with this rushing attack, especially without linebacker Ryan Connelly, who was a semifinalist for the Butkus Award. Quarterback N'Kosi Perry is also a runner, having rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown on the season.
The Badgers will once again be without starting defensive linemen Garrett Rand and Olive Sagapolu, along with Connelly. The rush defense has improved as the season has gone along, but it is still not great. They give up 158 yards on the ground per game, but is 72nd in the country in rush yards allowed per carry at 4.4. They were near the 100s in both categories a few months ago, but they still have a long ways to go. The defensive line and T.J. Edwards will need to play great in order to contain Homer and Dallas. This will be a defense similar to what we will see next year, as only three of the defensive starters will be seniors since Sagapolu and Connelly will be out.
Edge: Miami
When Miami passes...
Freshman N’Kosi Perry appears to have wrestled the starting job away from senior Malik Rosier. At the beginning of the season, the two played a similar number of snaps, but it seems as though Perry is the guy heading into the bowl game. Although, Perry did struggle in the win against Pittsburgh, completing 6 of 24 passes for 52 yards. Even with Perry, quarterback is a sore spot for the Hurricanes. Perry's quarterback rating of 118.5 ranks 104th. Miami’s quarterback has completed 51.6 percent of his passes this season, but has thrown as many touchdowns as Wisconsin’s signal caller without as many mistakes. His yards per attempt is even worse at 5.9, which ranks 116th. Leading receiver Jeff Thomas was dismissed from the Miami football team last month. He had 563 yards receiving and three touchdowns, and had one catch for 48 yards in the meeting last season. In the season-opening loss to LSU, Thomas had five grabs for 132 yards. Next up for Miami is junior Lawrence Cager, who caught 20 passes for 352 yards and a team-high six scores. although he does not have one since Oct. 6. He also has not had more than one catch in a game since Oct. 13. Last year, he had career-highs in catches (4) and receiving yards (76) against the Badgers. The security blanket is freshman tight end Brevin Jordan, who has 30 catches for 275 yards.
Defensively, Wisconsin has struggled. This unit is a far cry from what the Hurricanes had to face last season. Gone are the starting cornerbacks, starting defensive ends and starting outside linebackers. We knew it would be a bit of a rebuild on that side of the ball, but the unit has struggled more than people thought it would going in. The already young unit has been depleated with injury and departures this season. I already mentioned the transfers of Carriere-Williams and Johnson, but every starting defensive back from opening night has missed at least one game with each starting safety missing at least three. Freshman Rachad Wildgoose was pressed into duty, and has been inconsistent, like you might expect for a true freshman. The secondary has only picked off 10 passes on the season, and none in the final three games. What probably contributed to the lack of interceptions is that Wisconsin has only sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times, which is good enough for 112th in the nation. Part of that is Andrew Van Ginkel playing banged up, but should be good to go for the bowl game, but Jim Leonhard has had a hard time generating pressure. Miami’s offensive line has allowed 26 sacks, which is middle of the pack in the country. This is an interesting matchup. This is valuable experience for a young secondary, which has three freshmen and one sophomore among their top five defensive backs.
Edge: Push
Special Teams
The special teams have not been so special to the Badgers this year. Even the usually reliable Rafael Gaglianone has struggled mightily this year, going 10 of 15 on the year, which matches his worst year by field goal percentage in his career. This is coming off a fantastic year in 2017, in which he made 16 of his 18 attempts. What is even more surprising is that he is having a down year despite only attempting three field goals from beyond 40 yards. His long this season is only 42. For Miami, Michael Badgley has moved on to the Los Angeles Chargers, so freshman Bubba Baxa has stepped in and done a decent job. After going 1-of-2 against LSU in the opener, he has made seven of his last nine, but is just 1-of-3 from 40+ on the season. Per usual, Wisconsin’s punting game is a disaster, ranking near the bottom of the conference. Zach Feagles in back at punter for Miami, and he is decent, better than Wisconsin’s punters at least. Miami has a better return game as well. Dallas returned a punt for a touchdown last game. Aron Cruickshank will eventually break one for Wisconsin as a kick returner, so it might as well be this game, right?
Edge: Miami
Overview
Miami has a great defense and a real good ground attack, but like many bowl games, who is more motivated to be there? Both of these teams started out the season ranked in the top 10, but they finished 7-5 and nowhere near the goals they set for themselves. In 2009, the teams met in the Champs Sports Bowl with the temperatures in the 40s. Miami did not look like it wanted any part of the cold weather. All people heard about was Miami’s speed before the game. As it turned out, the only time we saw that speed was when the Canes players were running to the heaters. The weather will favor the Badgers, and it could depend on if the Southern school wants any part of the 20 or 30-degree temps. It will be a slugfest, but I think there will be too much Jonathan Taylor, as he runs for 150 and multiple scores and the Badgers beat the Canes for the second year in a row.
Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Miami 20
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