No. 20 Wisconsin Badgers (5-2, 3-1) @ Northwestern Wildcats (4-3, 4-1)

Wisconsin bounced back with a convincing win over Illinois, but will now head to the road for three of the next four. The first matchup for the Badgers will be the Northwestern Wildcats, which are the current leaders in the Big Ten West at 4-1 in conference play and 4-3 overall. Northwestern seems to always struggle out of the gate, and it was no different this year, as the Windy City Kitties began the season 1-2, including a home loss to Akron, which currently sits at 3-3 from the MAC. But Northwestern has rebounded to win three straight, including a win in East Lansing over Michigan State. Interestingly, the Cats have been road warriors at 3-0, but only 1-3 at home. That home win was against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in overtime in a game where Northwestern needed a 99-yard drive in less than two minutes to send it into overtime. Nebraska also had a 10-point lead with less than four to play. They blew a 17-0 lead to Michigan at Ryan Field, and also lost to Duke and, as I mentioned, Akron. The Wildcats are coming off a come-from-behind 18-15 win over lowly Rutgers on the road this past Saturday. Perhaps they were looking down the road at the next three weeks, when they have home games against Wisconsin and Notre Dame, followed by a trip to Iowa City. Wisconsin will be shooting for its 17th consecutive win against Big Ten West opponents and the Badgers have not lost on the road to a team in their division since dropping the Big Ten opener to Northwestern in 2014.

When Wisconsin runs...

The Badgers are a juggernaut when it comes to running the football. Sophomore running back Jonathan Taylor comes into the game second in the country in rushing yards (1,109), but tops in the country in rush yards per game (158.4). As a team, Wisconsin ranks fifth in the country in rushing yards (1,975) and fourth in rushing yards per game (282.1). Taylor has rushed for at least 100 yards in all seven of Wisconsin’s games this year, but failed to reach the century mark in last year’s meeting, as he was held to 80 yards on 19 carries in the 33-24 Bucky victory. With his 17th 100-yard rushing game against Illinois, Taylor is tied with Heisman Trophy winner Alan Ameche and Billy Marek for 9th place on Wisconsin’s all-time 100-yard games list. He is also 13th on the all-time school rushing list, and is 327 yards behind John Clay for 10th place in school history. Defensively, Northwestern is 49th in rush yards allowed per game (143.3) and its 4.2 yards per carry allowed in 75th. However, the Wildcats did hold Michigan’s Karan Higdon to 115 yards on 30 carries for just a 3.8-yard average. In its last home game, the Windy City Kitties allowed 231 yards to Nebraska, including 159 yards on 22 totes to Devine Ozigbo. Taylor will carry the rock early and often and I expect Wisconsin to reach 200 yards on the ground once again. Every time the Badgers have rushed for 205 yards this year, they have won. And any time they have rushed for fewer than that mark, they have lost.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook had a bounce back game against Illinois after having one of his worst games in Ann Arbor the week before. He made a few poor passes against Illinois, especially his interception that gave Illinois a chance for points at the end of the first half. Hornibrook was solid overall, though, going 13-for-22 for 188 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. He made the throws that were terrific, but then throws that made you scratch your head. But that’s Alex Hornibrook for you. Hornibrook is sixth on the all-time school passing list with 5,157 yards. He is 114 behind Scott Tolzien for fifth on the passing list. Hornibrook now has 45 career touchdown passes, which is just two behind John Stocco for third in school history and is three behind Joel Stave for second in school history in touchdown passes. Northwestern checks in at No. 76 in pass yards allowed per game (229.7). The Wildcats have allowed eight touchdowns and picked off six passes, which helps their opponents passer rating to be 51st. They also have struggled to bring down quarterbacks, as they’re tied with Wisconsin and a few other teams with 11 sacks, which is 107th in the country. JR Price leads the Wildcats with three interceptions, including two in the overtime win over Nebraska. Even though the Windy City Kitties don’t have a ton of sacks, defensive lineman Joe Gaziano is a name to watch. He is far and away the team leader in both sacks (4.5) and tackles for loss (7.5) and he has seven hurries as well. The offensive line will have its hands full against Gaziano. Wisconsin will need to throw to keep Northwestern honest, and I think they’ll be able to do that. It is a good matchup.

Edge: Push

When Northwestern runs…

Northwestern has been inconsistent running the ball this year. Jeremy Larkin had to quit football last month for health reasons, but he is still the Wildcats leading rusher. Isaiah Bowser took the running back job last week it seems with a 108-yard performance on 24 carries. It is hard to tell anything against a Rutgers team that has only won only one game all season and has given up 224 yards on the ground per game at a 5.5-yard per carry clip. On the flip side, though, the Badgers rush defense has been horrendous. They did allow Illinois to run for “just” 210 yards, which was the Illini’s second lowest rushing output of the season. Outside of the 80-yard run by Reggie Corbin where it was played well, but he bounced back to the opposite side of the field, the vaunted Illinois rushing attack managed just 130 yards on 35 carries (3.71 ypc). But still, Wisconsin ranks 79th in rush defense, allowing 168.7 yards on the ground per game. Their 5.1 yards per carry allowed is 111th. Yikes. The last two games, the Badgers defense has allowed a run of at least 80 yards. They will need to limit big runs, especially against a ground game that is struggling. Defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk is still out for Wisconsin, which is a big loss.

Edge: Push

When Northwestern passes…

Clayton Thorsen leads a real good Wildcats passing attack. Thorsen, who is on track to become the all-time leading passer in school history, has passed for nearly 2000 yards so far this year, and 18th in the country in passing yards per game (272.1). With his first touchdown pass this year, he passed Len Williams and Brett Basanez for most passing touchdowns in school history. He has a great weapon at wide receiver in senior Flynn Nagel. He has 693 yards receiving on a whopping 56 catches. His 99 yards receiving is third in the conference. Bennett Skowronek is another solid receiving threat, catching 29 passes for 337 yards. The Badgers have improved at pass defense recently, allowing a 55 percent completion percentage with a combined 214 yards and three interceptions in the last two games. I don’t think it is a coincidence that the Badgers pass defense improved as soon as they put pressure on the quarterback. The last two weeks, Wisconsin sacked opposing quarterbacks six times. Andrew Van Ginkel is becoming healthier by the week, and that is a very good thing for the Badgers. Wisconsin is 29th in pass yards allowed (187.4), but are 47th in opposing quarterback pass rating, which is a more accurate depiction of pass defense. After coming into the game with just three interceptions, the defense picked off Illinois three times. Wisconsin’s pass defense has improved, but Thorsen is the best quarterback the Badgers have seen so far this year.

Edge: Northwestern

Special Teams

Rafael Gaglianone, normally sure-footed, missed a chip-shot against Illinois, so he remains tied with Todd Gregoire for most field goals made all-time at UW. It was in the snow, so I am willing to give him a bit of a pass. He did boot seven extra points, which puts him at 198, just nine behind Philip Welch for the most in school history. He is currently 5-for-7 on the year, but I expect the senior kicker to bounce back in his next opportunity. Charlie Kuhbander was the starting kicker for Northwestern and went 14-for-14 in extra points, but only 2-of-5 in field goals. He will be out this week. Drew Luckenbaugh is 3-of-4 so far, but his long is only 37 and missed his only attempt from at least 40 yards. The punters are both not very good, as they are tied for the worst punting average in the Big Ten and are two of the worst three in net punting. They are similar in both kick and punt returning.

Edge: Wisconsin

Overview

This will be a tight one that will be one of the battles to decide the Big Ten West. Last time Wisconsin visited Evanston, it broke a losing streak at Ryan Field that dated back to 1999. I think the Badgers will be able to run the ball and force a few turnovers from Thorsen to win a tight one on the road.

Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 20