When Wisconsin runs...
Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line are still performing as well as expected. Even in the 38-13 loss, the sensational sophomore had 101 yards on 17 carries against a defense that was giving up fewer than 100 rushing yards total per game. With 16 100-yard games, Taylor is 11th all-time at Wisconsin in 100-yard games. His 2,927 yards rushing is 486 behind John Clay for 10th place on the all-time Wisconsin rushing list. Taylor is second in rushing yards in the country and in rush yards per game. As a team, the Badgers rush for an average of 269.7 yards per game, which is sixth in the country. Defensively, Illinois gives up an average of 199.5 yards on the ground per game, which is 106th in the country. Incredibly, they are also worse than Wisconsin in opponents yards per carry (5.1), ranking 113th out the 130 in the FBS. This could be a game in which Taylor hits the 200-yard mark for the third time this season.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Alex Hornibrook was awful against Michigan. There is no way around that. Fortunately, Illinois’ pass defense is not even close to the caliber of Michigan’s. After his poor showing in Ann Arbor, Hornibrook is 83rd in pass yards per game (177.2) and has fallen down nearly 20 spots to No. 56 in pass efficiency. He can either look great or look horrible, which is quite frustrating. I can’t see him being a complete disaster two games in a row, though. Hornibrook is fourth in school history with 42 touchdown passes. He needs to five to tie John Stocco for third and six to tie Joel Stave for second. The junior will not be able to catch the top guy, Darrell Bevell, this year, as he has 59. At 4,969 career passing yards, he ranks eighth in school history. He is 20 yards behind Mike Samuel for seventh and 34 behind Randy Wright for sixth in school history. Illinois has, uhhh, not been good at defending the pass. The Fighting Illini have given up an average of 305.2 pass yards per game. Despite 11 interceptions, Illinois has allowed opposing quarterbacks to have a 142.9 passer rating, which ranks 97th. Of those 11 picks, seven of those came in the three wins: Western Illinois, Kent State and Rutgers, an FCS team and two teams with a combined 2-12 record. Their 10 sacks rank 94th in the country. Even though the passing attack was inept against Michigan, Hornibrook has three solid wide receivers and a real solid tight end at his disposal. A.J. Taylor only had one catch against Michigan for three yards, but he is still the leading receiver for the Badgers. His touchdown in Ann Arbor tied him for 21st all-time in school history in receiving touchdowns with eight. Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor are solid targets at wide receiver as well. Tight end Jake Ferguson has become a real weapon for the Badgers, especially on third down. He was the leading receiver for the Badgers against Michigan and he has had at least 46 yards receiving in the last four games. Defensive end Bobby Roundtree is someone to watch for the Illini, leading the team with three sacks and is second with five tackles for loss. Del’Shawn Phillips and Jartavius Martin are tied for the team lead in interceptions with three.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Illinois runs...
Illinois went into the game against Purdue 13th in the country in rushing, averaging 260 rushing yards per game, but was held to just 69 yards in the blowout defeat. Even with the low rushing output against the Boilermakers, the Illini are still 22nd in rush yards per game with 228.8. In the three wins, Illinois has rushed for an average of 282 yards per game. In the three losses, they have rushed for 175 per game. But the Purdue game was the only game in which Illinois rushed for fewer than 200 yards. Four players have at least 130 yards rushing, and three with at least 280. Reggie Corbin leads the team with 484 yards and five scores, averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Mike Epstein has 397 yards and averages 6.8 yards per carry. A.J. Bush is a running quarterback, and will kill you with his legs. Bush has two 100-yard games this year and 282 rush yards overall. The Wisconsin front seven will need to put its big boy pants on to try to stop this vaunted Illinois ground game. Wisconsin is coming off a game in which it allowed 320 yards on the ground, its most since 2005 against Laurence Maroney and Minnesota. Wisconsin is 69th in rush yards allowed per game at 161.8. It is even worse when it is yards per carry. In that category, the Badgers are 109th at five yards per tote. Not good. The key will be to slow down Illinois’ ground attack. Make them try to beat you through the air.
Edge: Illinois
When Illinois passes...
The Illini are also a run-first team, and have even fewer passing yards per game than Wisconsin. Illinois averages 155.3 passing yards per game, which is 117th. When they do throw, they aren’t very effective, beyond just passing yards allowed. Their overall quarterback rating is 113.9 with five touchdowns and three picks and completion percentage (57.3 percent) is 94th. Wisconsin will need to make Illinois beat them through the air. Sean Mays is their leading receiver in both yards and receptions, with 16 catches for 176 yards. Ricky Smalling has 12 catches on the year, but three of them have gone for touchdowns. M.J. Rivers is a better passer than Bush, but he has not played in the last two to lead some to think head coach Lovie Smith might be thinking about redshirting him. In terms of yards per game, Wisconsin is 40th in the country after allowing 124 against Shea Patterson and Michigan. However, they are 65th in opponents quarterback rating. Two troubling stats for the Badgers: Wisconsin has only picked off four passes this year (tied for 84th), and just one in the past four games, and has just eight sacks (tied for 113th).
Edge: Push
Special Teams
Like I always do, I’ll start like I always do with Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone. He didn’t have an attempt at Michigan, so he remains tied with Todd Gregoire for most field goals in school history with 65. His one extra point leaves him 16 behind Philip Welsh for most career extra points. Illinois kicker Chase McLaughlin started out the season really well, making seven of his first eight field goals, including making all three of his attempts from at least 50 yards. But in his last three games, he has made just two of his six attempts. Illinois has the edge at punter, as Blake Hayes’ 45.1-yard average is second in the Big Ten and his net average of 39.8 is ranked sixth. Of his 36 punts, he has also placed 16 inside the opponents 20. Anthony Lotti’s 40-yard average is 12th in the conference, and 34.5-yard net is 13th. Aron Cruickshank is middle of the Big Ten in qualified kick returners, while Illinois’ Carlos Sandy is last.
Edge: Wisconsin
Overview
This could be a shootout. Both teams have trouble stopping anyone and both have terrific rushing attacks. Isaiahh Loudermilk is out again this week, so it would be nice if the secondary is back to full strength. I think Taylor will wear this Illinois front down and Hornibrook bounces back with a big day to lead the Badgers to the victory. Wisconsin will need to jump out early and force the Illini to throw the ball. Whichever quarterback makes the most plays through the air will win the game. My money is on Hornibrook.
Prediction: Wisconsin 41, Illinois 20
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