Last season in Madison, the Badgers rallied from a 10-7 third quarter deficit to score touchdowns on back-to-back possessions to give Bucky a 21-10 lead and the eventual 24-10 victory. That win improved Wisconsin’s record to 11-0 en route to the 13-1 season. In the series, the Wolverines have a 50-15 edge, but the Badgers have won five of the last eight meetings. Under head coach Paul Chryst, Wisconsin has been road warriors, winning 15 of 16 true road games (since the start of 2015) with the only loss coming to Michigan 14-7 two years ago. The Badgers have won 17 straight Big Ten regular season games, with the last loss being a 30-23 overtime loss to Ohio State in 2016.
When Wisconsin runs…
Wisconsin does what it does. It runs the football, led by sophomore Jonathan Taylor and one of the best offensive lines in the nation. The running back leads the nation in rushing yards per game, by 14 yards over Memphis’ Darrell Henderson. Taylor has gained more than 100 yards on the ground in every game so far this season, and has reached the 200-yard mark twice, including last week against Nebraska. Despite having played just 19 career games, he is already 14th in school history in rushing yards. Taylor is just 587 yards behind John Clay for 10th place, so will crash into the top 10 this year, barring injury. As a team, the Badgers are fourth in the country in rushing yards per game with 287, trailing only three triple option teams: Georgia Tech, Navy and Army. But Michigan is a different animal. The Wolverines come in allowing just 96.5 yards on the ground per game, which is sixth best in the nation. It improves to fifth best in yards allowed per carry with 2.6. Despite ranking ahead of them in the stats, Iowa’s run defense is inferior to Michigan’s. The Wolverines have good players everywhere, led by Rashan Gary. The future first round draft pick did not play in Michigan’s 41-21 victory over Maryland, and may or may not play this week. It would hurt Michigan’s defense a bit, but the Wolverines have a really good defense overall. Senior defensive end Chase Winovich is a star for the Maize & Blue. Not only does he have three sacks on the year, but he leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss per game with 1.8. Like Gary, he too could be a first round pick in April’s NFL Draft. Linebacker Devin Bush is a monster, as well, leading the team in tackles and is second in tackles for loss. Bush also had an interception in last year’s meeting. Taylor was bottled up in the first half last year, but found a bit of daylight in the second half, ending with 132 yards on 19 carries in the Bucky victory. He’ll find the sledding tougher at Michigan Stadium.
Edge: Push
When Wisconsin passes...
Even though Danny Kannell simply just looked at stats at thought Wisconsin’s passing offense was bad, Alex Hornibrook and the passing offense has been decent this year. Yes, Wisconsin ranks 107th in passing, averaging 193.2 yards passing per game. However, Hornibrook is 36th in the country in passing efficiency among qualified players and 32nd in yards per attempt. While Wisconsin isn’t an amazing passing offense, Hornibrook has not been terrible. A.J. Taylor has become a reliable target, catching 18 passes for a team-high 354 yards and two scores. He has had at least 60 yards receiving in three of the five games so far. One player who is emerging as one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the conference and maybe the nation is Jake Ferguson. The freshman has at least 40 yards receiving in four of the five games, and has scored a touchdown in each of his last two. He will need to do work in order for Wisconsin to move the ball through the air. Despite playing with the lead quite a bit and forcing opponents to throw, Michigan is No. 1 in the country in pass yards allowed per game (134) and top 10 in opponents quarterback efficiency (98.6). Michigan has 18 sacks this season, led by Winovich’s three. Six players have at least two sacks.
Edge: Michigan
When Michigan runs…
Michigan has three running backs with at least 170 yards rushing, led by Karan Higdon’s 582 yards. The top five running backs for the Wolverines average more than five yards per carry. As a team, Michigan averages 5.1 yards per carry on just under 200 yards per game. Wisconsin, still trying to figure things out defensively, has allowed 130 rushing yards per game, which is 42nd in the country after ranking near the top the past few years. The 42nd ranking doesn’t seem too bad…..until you find the yards per carry average against them is 4.4, which ranks 83rd. To make matters worse for the Badgers is their best defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk is out this week. Olive Sagapolu, T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly will need to have monster games to slow down the Michigan rushing attack to make the Wolverines one-dimensional. That is really the only chance Wisconsin has.
Edge: Michigan
When Michigan passes...
Michigan has a new quarterback, Shea Patterson, a transfer from Ole Miss. Patterson has thrown for 1,187 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. In his past five games, he has thrown all 10 touchdowns and has thrown three touchdowns in three different games. At his disposal, Patterson has two terrific wide receivers as well as one of the best tight ends in the conference, Zach Gentry. All three have at least 200 yards receiving, with Gentry leading the way with 306 yards on 20 catches. Donovan Peoples-Jones has 18 catches on the season, but five of them have gone for touchdowns. Wisconsin outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel will have to be able to get to Patterson because the Badgers secondary is a MASH unit. Wisconsin cornerbacks Caesar Williams and Deron Harrell are questionable and starting safety Scott Nelson will be out for the first half due to a targeting penalty he had in the second half of the win over Nebraska. Williams missed last week’s victory. The Badgers are 56th in passing yards allowed per game, but is even worse at opponents quarterback efficiency, ranking 74th. The Badgers also rank 121st in the country with just five sacks. It will be an uphill battle for the Wisconsin pass defense,
Edge: Michigan
Special Teams
As I start out out every special teams preview, I will start out with Wisconsin’s kicker Rafael Gaglianone. With two field goals against Nebraska, Gaglianone tied Todd Gregoire for most field goals in Wisconsin history with 65. He also kicked five extra points in the win over the Cornhuskers, so he is now just 17 made extra points behind Philip Welch for the school record in that category. For Michigan, Quinn Nordin is equally as good for the Wolverines. Sleeping over at Nordin’s house in the recruiting process has worked out well for Jim Harbaugh. He is eighth in most field goals in Michigan history and is currently the second most accurate kicker in the illustrious history of Wolverines football. The punter comparison is not as kind to Wisconsin. After losing the job to Brad Robbins last year, Michigan’s Will Hart has a punting average of 51.7 yards per punt, which is fourth in the country, and his net punting ranks 12th in America. Wisconsin’s Anthony Lotti ranks 11th and 12th, respectively, in those categories....in the Big Ten. Michigan kick returner Ambry Thomas is second in kick return average in the conference, and has taken one back to the house. Wisconsin’s kick returner Aron Cruickshank is fifth in the conference among qualified players, but has been close to breaking one on a few occasions. Zach Hintze is tops in the Big Ten and seventh in the nation in touchback percentage, so that would be a neutralizer. Among qualified returners, Peoples-Jones is third in punt return average, running back punts at an 8.5 per return clip. Like pretty much everything else on the team, Michigan is incredibly good on special teams.
Edge: Michigan
Overview
This will be a tough one, perhaps the toughest of the year. The Badgers will need to play a perfect game to come out on top at the Big House, and I have yet to see that from this year’s Wisconsin. In order to win, the Badgers will need to control the clock with Taylor and keep the Michigan offense off the field. Wisconsin is capable of that, ranking fifth in the country and tops in the conference in time of possession. Michigan’s defense is a salty unit that will try to take away the Badgers run game. I wouldn’t have much confidence if the Badgers were completely healthy, but I have no confidence in a banged up team winning in Ann Arbor.
Prediction: Michigan 41, Wisconsin 20
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