Following the loss to BYU, the Badgers went to Iowa City and won a huge game against Iowa two weeks ago 28-17. The score is a bit deceiving, as Wisconsin scored with 57 seconds left to take a 21-17 lead, and would score once more after a T.J. Edwards interception. Nebraska played last week and was beaten soundly by Purdue in Lincoln 42-28. The Cornhuskers scored first on a Devine Ozigbo 18-yard touchdown run, but the Boilermakers would score the next 27 en route to the 14-point win. The Cornhuskers do have a really good offense, gaining nearly 600 yards against Purdue, but their defense is.....ehh.....not so good, allowing at least 33 points in every game except for the game against Troy. Wisconsin has an 8-4 edge in this series, and like I mentioned earlier, a 6-1 record since Nebraska joined the Big Ten. If you include the 1974 thriller, the Badgers have won seven of their last eight against them.
When Wisconsin runs...
The offensive line needed to make a statement after an underwhelming performance against BYU, and the unit did just that in Iowa City, helping the Badgers run for 210 yards against one of the best run defenses in the country going into the game. Sophomore Jonathan Taylor slipped to fifth in the country in rushing after the bye week, but he leads the country in rushing yards per game with 157. As a team, Wisconsin has rushed for 266.3 yards per game, which leads the Big Ten and is eighth in the country, just ahead of Penn State and Maryland, which are ninth and 10th respectively. Nebraska did well stopping the run against Colorado, but have struggled mightily in the last three. In those three games, the Huskers have allowed 205 yards on the ground per game, and it gets even uglier in Big Ten play. In its two conference games, the Blackshirts have allowed 473 yards and 5.8 yards per carry. Not pretty. Wisconsin has a better offensive line and running back than both Michigan and Purdue. This could be a game in which the Badgers rush for more than 300 yards.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook can make you pull your hair out with inconsistency. He looked poor against BYU, throwing for just 190 yards on 28 attempts with an interception. But then, a week later in a hostile Kinnick Stadium, he threw for 205 yards and almost had as many touchdowns (3) as he had incompletions (5). He also orchestrated a drive that may have righted the Badgers season, leading a 10-play, 88-yard drive to give the Badgers the lead with less than a minute left against Iowa. Last year, Hornibrook only had one conference game in which he did not throw an interception, and that was the regular season finale. In one conference game in 2018, he has already equaled that mark. Through four weeks this year, he is on pace to have a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than last year. Hornibrook is in eighth place in Wisconsin history for career passing yards with 4,706. Next up on the list is Mike Samuel at 4,989. His 40 touchdown passes are fourth in school history. John Stocco is third on the list with 47, and Joel Stave is second with 48, so he has a legitimate shot at reaching No. 2 by season’s end. He has a number of weapons at his disposal, starting with his wide receivers, juniors A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor and sophomore Danny Davis. His tight end has become an emerging weapon, freshman Jake Ferguson. In three of the four games, he has caught at least three passes and has had at least 40 yards receiving. In his last two, he has had seven for 119 and a touchdown. He will only become more of a threat as the season moves along. Nebraska allows nearly 250 passing yards per game, which is 97th in the country, and their opposing quarterback rating is 75th. The Huskers have 12 sacks on the year, which is tied for 40th, but only have two interceptions on the season, which is tied for 100th.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Nebraska runs...
The Cornhuskers come in 42nd in the country in rushing yards per game, but have rushed for at least 187 yards in three of the four games so far, including 259 yards on 39 totes last week against Purdue. Senior running back Devine Ozigbo did not play week one against Colorado and struggled in his first three games back, but he ran well against the Boilermakers last week, rushing for 170 yards on just 17 carries. Four Cornhuskers have at least 125 yards rushing, led by Ozigbo's 260. Three running backs--Ozigbo, Greg Bell and Maurice Washington--have at least 25 carries and all have a yards per carry average of at least 4.9. Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez is also a threat on the ground, having gained 196 rushing yards, which is second on the team. Ozigbo had a nice performance last year against the Badgers, rushing for 112 yards on 23 carries, one of the best performances on the ground against them last year. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is not what it has been in the past at stopping the run. They were one of the top teams last year at stopping the run, but it has been a different story this year. Wisconsin comes in allowing 135 yards on the ground per game, which is 51st in the country. It has been especially poor the last two outings, allowing 169.5 rush yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry. Not acceptable.The Badgers will have their hands full against the Cornhuskers offense. Olive Sagapolu, T.J. Edwards, Ryan Connelly and Co. will need to play well in order to slow down the rushing attack. With the middle of the defense back, I did not expect the run defense to struggle as much as it has.
Edge: Nebraska
When Nebraska passes...
As poor as the run defense has been for Wisconsin this year, the pass defense has been even worse. The Badgers came into the year with an inexperienced secondary. What helps a secondary? A pass rush. Too bad for Wisconsin that pass rush has been non-existent through four games. In those four games, the Badgers have just three sacks after having 39 sacks in 2017. Martinez had a strong performance against Purdue, throwing for 323 yards and two touchdowns. Martinez does have a great pair of wide receivers to throw the ball to, Stanley Morgan, Jr. and J.D. Spielman. Morgan has not had a huge game yet this season, but he has had 17 receptions for 269 yards. After a slow start to the season, Spielman broke out against Purdue with 10 receptions for 135 yards and two touchdowns. Those are the only two Cornhuskers with at least 65 yards receiving. It will be a challenge for the Badgers young secondary. Andrew Van Ginkel will need to bring the heat on Martinez and force him to make poor decisions.
Edge: Nebraska
Special Teams
Wisconsin’s kicker Rafael Gaglianone is one of the best in the business, despite missing his last field goal against BYU. He is 3-for-4 on the season. With his 63 field goals made, he is two behind Todd Gregoire for the school record in field goals made. He is 22 extra points made behind Philip Welch for the most extra points in school history. At kicker, the Badgers have the edge over virtually everybody they play. Wisconsin still has a weak spot at punter and has since Brad Nortman left. Anthony Lotti is 13th in the Big Ten in punting average and 10th in net punting. Nebraska punter Caleb Lightbourn is fifth in the conference in punting average, but is dead last in net punting due to the Cornhuskers having allowed 165 punt return yards on 10 returns so far this year. Barret Pickering is having some problems at kicker for Nebraska, having gone 3-for-6 with a long of 35. He is 3-of-4 from 35 and in, but 0-2 on attempts beyond 35 yards. Nebraska has struggled on special teams, and Wisconsin has a golden chance to try to exploit it.
Edge: Wisconsin
Overview
Expect this to be a high-scoring affair. This has not been the Wisconsin defense of usual and Nebraska is really good offensively. I expect it to be close the first half before the Badgers put a little distance between them and the Huskers in the second half to win and improve Wisconsin to 4-1 on the season heading into a trip to Ann Arbor for a night game at the Big House. Like looking ahead to BYU with Iowa looming, the Badgers can’t afford to look past the Cornhuskers. They have a potent offense and the Badgers are still struggling on defense. It will be interesting to see how much this young Badgers team has improved over the bye week.
Prediction: Wisconsin 48, Nebraska 31
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