New Mexico (1-0) at No. 5 Wisconsin (1-0)

Fresh off their 34-3 win over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the Wisconsin Badgers take aim at the New Mexico Lobos this afternoon. Both teams come in at 1-0 after New Mexico dismantled Incarnate Word last Saturday, 62-30. Last season the Lobos started out 3-2 before losing their final seven to finish the season at 3-9. Not only did New Mexico drop its final seven, but only two of those games were decided by fewer than 14 points. This is the first meeting between these two schools. Even though the Badgers won by 31, if there was such a thing as an unimpressive 31-point win, this was it. Paul Chryst and company will look to clean things up this week because the competition only picks up from here.

When Wisconsin runs…

 It was only one game, but New Mexico’s run defense gave up 244 yards on the ground to Incarnate Word. That does not bode well going against Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin’s powerful ground game. In the game, the Lobos gave up two carries of at least 58 yards and more than seven yards per carry for the game. Even though Wisconsin’s high-powered rushing attack did not look like a well-oiled machine last Saturday, they can explode at any minute. Wisconsin had 234 yards of its own on the ground, and Taylor had two carries of at least 30 yards. I expect Taylor to have multiple 30-yard runs once again against New Mexico and I would think this is a game in which all four running backs play.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

I mentioned New Mexico had trouble stopping run against Incarnate Ward. Well, they also had trouble stopping the pass. Incarnate Word’s Jon Copeland threw for 328 yards and one touchdown in the Lobos 32-point win. Although New Mexico held him under 50 percent passing, the 328 yards is alarming. Once again, Wisconsin will be without its top two wide receivers due to suspension, Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis. If the offensive line can give Alex Hornibrook throwing lanes, he should have a field day, even with a depleted receiving core. Wisconsin gets tight end Zander Neuville back, which is big in the passing game. I still think they’ll utilize freshman Jake Ferguson as well. Hornibrook will throw two or three touchdowns, but he’ll need to not throw it to the other team, and that will be the biggest thing for him.

Edge: Wisconsin

When New Mexico runs...

Part of it could be due to the score, but New Mexico ran the ball 66 times against Incarnate Word, and ran for 319 yards, which currently ranks 12th in the country. This week, the Lobos faces a Badgers defense that allowed the second-fewest yards on the ground per game last year. Wisconsin currently ranks tied for 49th in rush defense, as it allowed 124 yards to Western Kentucky. Like Western Kentucky’s Drew Eckels, New Mexico’s quarterback, Tevaka Tuioti, also can run. He had 11 carries for 54 yards and a score against Incarnate Word. Wisconsin had a bit of trouble containing the quarterback on runs against the Hilltoppers. Hopefully, Tuioti is not able to escape the pocket and make plays with his legs like last game.

Edge: Wisconsin

When New Mexico passes...

It is hard to really figure much out about New Mexico’s passing attack. Tuioti threw for 321 yards on just 13 completions. It does help that eight different receivers caught a pass of at least 20 yards. In all, 10 receivers hauled in at least one pass for the Lobos in the win, but no one caught more than two passes. Eckels was 15 of 26 for the Hilltoppers against this young secondary of Wisconsin, which started two freshmen, a sophomore and a senior. However, Eckels did have a few drops from his receivers, and there were a few busts in the secondary, but that is to be expected from such a young secondary. Wisconsin only registered one sack against Western Kentucky, which was one of the worst teams in the country in allowing sacks in 2017, so the Badgers will need to find a way to get pressure on Tuioti today. Getting back starting defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk will help in that regard.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Rafael Gaglianone is one of the best in the country at kicker, and it comes as no surprise as he made his two field goals against Western Kentucky. He trails Todd Gregoire by three in most field goals made in school history. Gaglianone also trails Philip Welch by 35 for most extra point makes in school history. Junior punter Anthony Lotti punted four times for an average of 39.5 yards, so he’ll need to get that net average over 40 to be considered a strength. I wonder if freshman Aron Cruickshank will get primary kick return duties, as he returned his only attempt 30 yards last Friday. We don’t know much about New Mexico’s kicking game, as freshman Andrew Shelley made all eight of his extra points, but did have a field goal attempt. Punter Tyson Dyer punted three times for close to a 49-yard average. New Mexico has also returned a kick for a touchdown in each of the last years, but Zach Hintze is a weapon kicking off. The Hilltoppers did not even have a kickoff return last week.

Edge: Push

Overview

I am looking for improvement. They should walk over New Mexico, but it should be a nice test for the young secondary. Wisconsin should move up and down the field on New Mexico’s defense, but the Badgers will need to play like they did last week on defense. I expect Wisconsin to get at least 500 yards, and maybe even 600. My challenge for the Badgers defense is hold New Mexico under 300 yards of offense, gain three turnovers and sack Tuioti three times.

Prediction: Wisconsin 48, New Mexico 17