When Wisconsin runs…
Jonathan Taylor is coming off the best game of his career against New Mexico, rushing for a career-high 253 yards and three touchdowns. With that performance, Taylor vaulted to tops in the country in rushing yards through the first two weeks. Not that it means a ton considering the competition, Wisconsin as a team is now fifth in the country in rushing, averaging 325.5 yards per game, and one of those teams above this is Nebraska, which has only played one game so far. In last year’s meeting, Taylor ran for 128 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown. BYU comes in tied for 76th in the country in run defense, allowing 150.5 rush yards per game, including 172 last week in a loss to California. On beef alone, BYU can actually match up with Wisconsin. BYU’s defensive line averages close to 300 pounds. After dominating in the trenches against Arizona, the opposite happened against Cal. Corbin Kaufusi at 6’9” and 340-pound defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga lead a solid defensive line. Butch Pau'u is a very solid middle linebacker to anchor the run defense. I think BYU will hold its own early, but eventually, I believe Jonathan Taylor and company will wear down the BYU defense.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Hornibrook, as I mentioned, had a great day in Provo last year against the Cougars. This year, so far, the quarterback has been solid through two games. In 2018, Hornibrook has completed 25 of 40 passes (62.5 percent) for 405 yards with three touchdowns and a pick. His yards per attempt is at a whopping 10.13. And reinforcements are on the way with the return of sophomore Danny Davis, who served a two-game suspension. As a freshman, Davis caught 26 passes for 418 yards and five touchdowns. His production went up after the injury to No. 1 wide receiver Quintez Cephus against Indiana last year. In the five games after Indiana, he hauled in 18 passes for 248 yards and four touchdowns, including grabbing five passes for 56 yards and three touchdowns in the Orange Bowl win over Miami. With Davis suspended, the “other” Taylor, A.J. has become a reliable wide receiver for Hornibrook, having 109.5 receiving yards per game and a score. Going back to the Orange Bowl, A.J. Taylor has 18 catches for 324 yards and two touchdowns in those three games. I would say the secondary is the weakest unit of the defense, but still is not terrible. All four players in the secondary are at least juniors. They did get beaten for a 52-yard gain by California’s Kanawai Noa last week, though. BYU has sacked opposing quarterbacks just once in the first two games. I think Hornibrook will have another solid game, especially if BYU stacks the line in order to stop Jonathan Taylor.
Edge: Wisconsin
When BYU runs...
BYU’s offense is a mess right now, and that is especially true for BYU’s running game. In their two games, the Cougars are currently 99th in the country, averaging 137 yards on the ground per game, including rushing 33 times for 91 yards against California. Squally Canada is the only runner with more than 10 carries, but has just carried 40 times for 147 yards in two games, an average of 3.7 yards per carry. Freshman backup Lopini Katoa has carried 10 times for 55 yards. After finishing second in rush yards allowed per game last year, the Badgers have not hit their stride in run defense yet. They are not bad, though, Wisconsin has allowed 201 rush yards in the two games, but improved from the first week to the second week. Last week, Wisconsin allowed 77 yards on just 30 carries. To no one’s surprise, that coincides with the return of defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk. The sophomore defensive end will be in his second game back, and he and nose tackle Olive Sagapolu will stuff the BYU running game. I think the Badgers will allow fewer than 100 yards on the ground once again.
Edge: Wisconsin
When BYU passes...
In addition to struggling rushing the ball, the Cougars struggle passing the ball as well. They are led by 25-year-old Tanner Mangum, who as a freshman, threw a 42-yard Hail Mary to defeat Nebraska 33-28 in Lincoln.This year, he is completing 58 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two picks after throwing eight touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2017. He missed the meeting last year. Eleven receivers have caught passes from Mangum this year, but only junior tight end Moroni Laulu-Pututau (8) has more than five receptions and none of them have more than 80 yards receiving. New Mexico blew down the field through the air on the first possession last week, but then was shut down afterward. Wisconsin’s pass defense will need to play well again if it wants to completely shut down this BYU passing attack.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
Wisconsin kicker Rafael Gaglianone is off to a strong start in 2018, making all three of his field goal attempts and all 10 of his extra point attempts. For his career, Gaglianone has made 63 field goal attempts, which is second in Wisconsin history, only behind Todd Gregoire’s 65. His 178 extra points made is 29 behind Philip Welch for the school record. BYU freshman kicker Skylar Southam is 1-1 with the attempt being from 36. He has made all five of his extra points. Through two games, junior Wisconsin junior punter Anthony Lotti has improved significantly. His 42.4 average yards per punt ranks eighth in the Big Ten, but his net punting average is 41.2, which ranks fifth in the conference. After being BYU’s kicker the last two seasons, Rhett Almond has transitioned to being the team’s punter. He has punted 10 times with a 42.6-yard average. After returning three punts for 45 yards against Arizona, Michael Shelton returned four for -4 against Cal. He had a 37-yard return against Arizona, but only has six returns for four yards other than that.
Edge: Wisconsin
Overview
This is another game Wisconsin should win handily. BYU's defense will likely keep it competitive early, but the Badgers will ultimately pull away for a comfortable win. I don't think Hornibrook will have as good of a game as he had last year, but I do believe he will have a nice game to help Bucky come out on top. Jonathan Taylor will be contained early, but then the offensive line will take over in the second half and the sophomore running back will end up with between 150-200 yards.
Prediction: Wisconsin 34, BYU 6
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