But, enough about last season. We’re on to 2018. This season will be a bit different from past years. This year, Wisconsin returns nine starters on offense, including its quarterback, star running back and arguably the best offensive line in college football. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard will have to earn his money this season, as the Badgers lose seven starters from last year, including three from the secondary. To make matters worse, Garrett Rand, who would have started at defensive end, is out for the season with an achilles injury. The man who would have started opposite Rand, Isaiahh Loudermilk, will be out until at least conference play. Add that into the fact they’re already replacing seven starters, and there is reason for concern. But, like always, next man up...
Even though Wisconsin returns virtually everybody on offense, tight end Troy Fumagalli will be tough to replace. He was the security blanket on passes and was a dynamic blocker. And then starting wide receivers Quintez Cephus (indefinitely) and Danny Davis (two games) have been suspended. Cephus has been accused of sexual assault and Davis of knowing about it and taking a picture of it. But, the Badgers have depth at the position, and like I said when talking about the defense, next man up.
Western Kentucky comes off a season in which it went 6-7 and a loss to Georgia State in the Cure Bowl. After not allowing more than 23 in any of the first six games, the Hilltoppers defense allowed at least 30 in six of the final seven, going 2-5 in the process. Second-year coach Mike Sanford will have his work cut out for him, as Western Kentucky will have to replace Mike White, who started at quarterback for them the last two years, throwing 63 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The only other meeting between the two teams was a 24-6 Wisconsin win in 2001 when the Hilltoppers were in the FCS and led by Jack Harbaugh, the father of Jim (currently the coach at Michigan) and John (currently the coach of the Baltimore Ravens).
When Wisconsin runs...
Well, I mentioned Wisconsin will be without its starting receivers in this one, so I am guessing Paul Chryst will.........probably run the ball. It’s not like they have arguably the best running back in college football running behind perhaps the best offensive line or anything. Last season as a freshman, star running back Jonathan Taylor ran for 1977 yards and 13 touchdowns. He averaged more than five yards per carry in 12 of the team’s 14 games. And the guys who helped paved the way for Taylor’s spectacular rookie campaign? Yeah, they’re all back. Western Kentucky comes into 2018 after allowing 172.6 rush yards per game, which was 77th (out of 130 teams). Their 25 rushing touchdowns allowed ranked 95th in the country. They will have to replace Joel Iyiegbuniwe, who was drafted in the fourth round by the Chicago Bears. Last season, he recorded 117 tackles, including 11.5 for loss and forced three fumbles. They do return defensive tackle Evan Sayner, who was injured six games into last season. Perhaps he was a huge reason why the defense dropped off a cliff in 2017 following a strong start. On the defense, keep an eye on linebacker Eli Brown, who transferred in from Kentucky and is immediately eligible. Still, Wisconsin has an incredibly veteran team returning, starting with the five road graders up front. I expect Chryst to give the ball to Taylor and backups Chris James and Garrett Goshek early and often. It would not surprise me if the Badgers topped 300 rushing yards in the opener.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
This will be an interesting matchup. I mentioned the losses of starting wide receivers Cephus and Davis earlier. Well, I expected the Hilltoppers to creep up to stop the run before the suspensions. Now, I expect them to sell out to try to stop Taylor and the running game. The secondary is the strong suit for the Toppers. Cornerback DeAndre Farris is the leader of the unit after posting 14 pass break-ups for them a year ago. Free safety Devon Key was on the All-Conference USA Freshman team last year after recording 94 tackles. The Badgers return junior Alex Hornibrook at quarterback after he led them to a 13-1 season last year. Last year as a sophomore, Hornibrook had an up-and-down season, but ended on a high note, as he threw for 258 yards and four touchdowns in the Orange Bowl win over Miami. As a whole, he threw 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last year. The 15 picks is obviously too many, and there was a string of eight consecutive games with at least one interception. In his 10 conference games, he threw a pick in nine of them, and 14 overall. He will need to cut that down, but has the talent to make Aaron Rodgers-esque passes, but consistency will be the key. With Hornibrook’s top two wide receivers out, he’ll have to lean on the run to open up the pass even more. Starting for the Badgers at receiver will be sophomore Kendric Pryor and junior A.J. Taylor. The latter had a breakout game in the Orange Bowl, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. Pryor was known for his running more than his receiving in 2017, as he ran the ball three times and scored twice on jet sweeps. He only caught 13 passes last season, and more than two just once. Without Cephus and Davis, he’ll have to step up. True freshman Aron Cruickshank could be in line to get a much heavier workload. The freshman was the MVP of spring ball and is a big play waiting to happen. I could see him getting many jet sweeps this season. I would look for new tight end Kyle Penniston to get involved early. He is a solid receiver, and has played well as the backup tight end. One thing in the Badgers favor is that the Hilltoppers only sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times last season in 13 games, and lost leading sack man Derik Overstreet, who had three.
Edge: Western Kentucky
When Western Kentucky runs...
The Hilltoppers are a throwing team, and when they run, it has not been all that successful. For Western Kentucky in 2017, four running backs had at least 50 carries. Of those, only Jakairi Moses averaged at least four yards per carry, and he will be out for probably much of the season due to a knee injury. Quinton Baker, who averaged the second most yards per carry of the four, is now at FCS Portland State. That leaves D'Andre Ferby and Marquez Trigg as the running backs for this game. Together, they carried the ball 168 times for 540 yards (3.2 yards per carry). As a whole, the Toppers finished last in the country in rushing a season ago. I will admit, the offensive line for Western Kentucky is bad. Like, really bad. New offensive line coach T.J. Woods, who was on Gary Andersen’s staff at Wisconsin in 2013 and 2014, will have his work cut out for him. On defense, Wisconsin may have lost seven starters, but it returns the middle of its defense. Coming back for the Badgers are seniors nose tackle Olive Sagapolu, inside linebackers T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly and strong safety D’Cota Dixon. Last year, the stingy run defense allowed just 92.6 rushing yards per game, which ranked second in the country, and I don’t see it changing much this year. It also surrendered a nation-leading five rushing scores all year. With Wisconsin returning its run defenders and Western Kentucky’s inability to run the ball, this is a big edge for Bucky.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Western Kentucky passes...
This is a tough call. Gone is White, who was one of the best quarterbacks in Western Kentucky history. Redshirt senior Drew Eckels will likely be the starter on Friday night. In addition to White being gone, three of the top four receivers have moved on as well. The leading returning receiver is Lucky Jackson, who was the big-play threat for the Toppers a year ago. He caught 39 passes and had a yards per catch of 15.4, which led the team. He caught a 93-yard score in the three overtime victory over Middle Tennessee last season. On the other side of the ball, I already mentioned the Badgers lost three starters in the defensive backfield. The captain of the backfield is Dixon, the lone returning starter. Gone are cornerbacks Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal and safety Natrell Jamerson. Fortunately, for the Badgers, their defensive coordinator was one of the best defensive backs in Wisconsin history. Many thought Dontye Carriere-Williams would be penciled in as a starter at corner, but he has worked with the reserves in camp mostly due to consistency. Sophomore Caesar Williams and redshirt freshman Faion Hicks could be the starters with sophomore Madison Cone in the slot. At safety, redshirt freshman Scott Nelson has “flashed big play ability,” as Leonhard put it. He has taken that starting free safety spot and ran with it. Freshmen Reggie Pearson and Travion Blalock have also both performed well in camp, and would be ready if called upon. Not only has the Western Kentucky offensive line struggled at run blocking, but they also gave up a whopping 48 sacks a season ago. Andrew Van Ginkel and Zack Baun could have big games. This is the one matchup I will be most interested in watching, as it is inexperience vs. inexperience.
Edge: Push
Special Teams
After missing a bit of camp, Wisconsin kicker Rafael Gaglianone is back and ready for his senior season. He is coming off a terrific season, making 16 of his 18 kicks (89 percent) in 2017. He is on the verge of breaking many kicking records at Wisconsin. Barring injury, he will shatter Todd Gregoire’s record of 65 career field goals. Gaglianone stands at 60. He is also 41 behind Philip Welch in career extra points and is currently second in career field goal percentage, but would need an incredible year to pass Matt Davenport in that category. Gaglianone will go down as arguably the best kicker to ever play at the university. Punter Anthony Lotti improved as a sophomore, but he still finished 12th in the league in net punting. He did land 25 of his 57 punts inside the 20, though, which was tied for fifth in the conference. Wisconsin will have to replace both return men, and it would not surprise me if Pryor was the kick returner. Cruickshank will have a say in both kick and punt returns, though. Senior kicker Ryan Nuss is back for Western Kentucky, but he made just 10 of his 16 attempts last year and was just 7-of-12 from 30+ yards. However, he was 3-of-4 from 40+ last season, which was interesting. They lost punter Jake Collins, who left as a graduate transfer to Northwestern, but Alex Rinella has a strong leg. The Toppers, like the Badgers, will have to replace their return men. With Gaglianone returning and having the clear edge at kicker in this matchup, Bucky will get the edge.
Edge: Wisconsin
Overview
Wisconsin should win this going away. The Badgers have experience across the board on offense and should dominate the trenches. Hopefully it does not take Wisconsin as long as it did in last year’s opener, but it could. Last year, the Badgers fell behind 10-0 and did not score until less than two minutes remaining in the first half. They would tie it up at the half and would explode for 49 in the second half to turn a nail-biter into a laugher, 59-10. With Wisconsin returning a veteran group on offense, the Badgers should be able to move the ball. One thing I’d worry about is Pryor and A.J. Taylor having trouble getting open, and the Toppers stacking the line of scrimmage. I have a feeling this will be the breakout game for Penniston, who could make a living up the seams with Western Kentucky selling out to stop the run. I think it the Badgers will start a bit slow and maybe lead something like 14-3 at the half, but like last year, blow the opponent out in the second half.
Prediction: Wisconsin 44, Western Kentucky 13
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