Wisconsin/BYU preview

The Wisconsin Badgers, coming in at a perfect 2-0, will play on the road for the first time in 2017 against the BYU Cougars. Not only is this the first time Wisconsin will ever travel to Provo to play, but it is the first time a Big Ten team has ever traveled there for a game. Bucky is coming off an underwhelming 31-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, while BYU fell to 1-2 with a home loss to rival Utah. BYU has struggled mightily on offense the first three games, and it won’t get any easier on Saturday. Wisconsin has only allowed 12 points per game in its first two games, while BYU has just scored an average of 11 points per game. That average dips to 6.5 points per game in games against FBS teams. The task of beating the No. 10 Badgers became even more difficult for the Cougars after they announced quarterback Tanner Mangum is out for Saturday’s game after being hurt late in the game against Utah. The stats for BYU’s offense have been brutal so far, and this is not a game for them to get well in. There is a reason Wisconsin is favored by 17.5. It will be tough to cover since BYU’s defense is very solid and Wisconsin’s offense has not lit the world on fire, not to mention it is a road game.

When Wisconsin runs...

Bucky may have found his running back for the next three or four years. After an exciting week one performance by true freshman Jonathan Taylor against Utah State, he received the start against Florida Atlantic and did not disappoint. He rushed for 223 yards on 26 carries and had two breathtaking touchdown runs. BYU comes into the game with the 88th ranked rush defense in yards allowed per game, but allowed nearly 300 yards rushing to LSU, by far the best opponent the Cougars have faced. After rushing for 357 yards against the Owls, the Badgers have moved up to No. 13 in the country in rush yards per game, averaging just under 300 per game. Sophomore running back Bradrick Shaw missed last week and should get him back this week. Having him back in the fold will only make Taylor and Chris James more of a threat. I doubt Wisconsin will be able to run for 250-300 yards, but it would not shock me to see the Badgers rush for around 200. It will all depend on the threat of a pass. Bucky needs the good Alex Hornibrook to show up on Saturday.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Much of how well the Wisconsin offense plays is on the shoulders of Hornibrook, Bucky’s sophomore quarterback. Against Utah State, Hornibrook played really well. He had zip on his throws, and was incredibly accurate. Even most of the incompletions could (and probably should) have been caught. However, in last week’s game, the sophomore did a 180. He went back to his old habits of lofting passes to receivers and was as inaccurate as I have ever seen him. There were multiple passes that were open, but the quarterback missed. Even many of the completions were behind receivers or they could have been bigger plays. Hornibrook does have many weapons at his disposal, though. Troy Fumagalli is arguably the nation’s best tight end, while Jazz Peavy and Quintez Cephus are very solid receivers. BYU has been in the middle of the pack nationally in passing yards allowed per game. They have only allowed one passing touchdown in three games, though. However, they just have one pick in three games as well. The Cougars also have just three sacks in three games. If the Wisconsin offensive line can give Hornibrook time, he should be able to find receivers open. But the sophomore needs to be more consistent, and until he does that, teams will crowd the line of scrimmage, daring him to make plays down the field.

Edge: Push

When BYU runs...

BYU’s rushing attack has not been very good so far, to put it nicely. The Cougars rank 119th in the country in rush yards per game, averaging 76.3 per game. However, that does include a performance against LSU in which they rushed for negative-5 yards on 14 carries. In the two games against FBS teams the Cougars have rushed for just 58 yards on 38 carries. Their test won’t get much easier this week, as Wisconsin has allowed under 100 yards per game on the ground. The Badgers will be without Chikwe Obasih again this week, but Alec James is a very reliable backup. Since it is a matchup of a struggling rush offense against a stingy run defense, it is no contest as to which team has the edge.

Edge: Wisconsin

When BYU passes...

It is a bad sign when your rush offense is ranked 119th in the country and your pass offense is not much better. BYU is averaging just 155.3 pass yards per game and 136 per in games against FBS teams. Add into those stats that BYU will be starting a new quarterback this week, whomever that will be, and it is not a recipe for success. But who knows, maybe the new quarterback can provide a spark to a struggling offense, much like Hornibrook did a season ago for the Badgers and Joel Stave did in 2012. The Badgers are once again stingy through the air, allowing just 180.5 yards through the air per game, while picking off three passes in their two games and allowing one touchdown. That one score was off a blown coverage, which has happened a few times already this season. There needs to be better communication this week because you don’t want to give a struggling offense confidence.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

BYU has a solid kick return unit and has done nothing at punt returning. They do have an excellent kick coverage unit, though, ranking 13th in the country. BYU’s kicker Rhett Almond is just 2-for-4 on the year in field goal attempts with a long of 35. However, he was 17-of-21 last season, so I’ll just chalk this up to a slow start. He is still a very capable kicker. Anthony Lotti has only punted eight times, and while his net average is not great, he still has put a pair inside the 20. Much like Almond, Rafael Gaglianone is off to a bit of a slow start, making 2-of-3, but missing his only attempt more than 30 yards. He will need to prove he is fully healthy after missing the final 11 games a season ago.

Edge: BYU

Overall

This is a game Wisconsin should win convincingly, but you never know with road openers, especially with the Badgers having so many young players on the team. I think this game will be close for awhile, but Bucky will come up with a big play late in the game to seal it up. I just think Wisconsin will be too much defensively. It will be a defensive struggle, but in the end, the Badgers will be too much.

Prediction: Wisconsin 16, BYU 3