The week has finally arrived. For the first time in eight months, it is Wisconsin Badgers game week! Unlike the last three years when the Badgers took on LSU twice and Alabama in their season opener, Wisconsin will not be in a big-time game on opening weekend. This year, Bucky welcomes the Utah State Aggies to Camp Randall Stadium on Friday night. Utah State went 3-9 last year under Matt Wells, but are poised for a much better season in 2017 with a veteran group returning. The last time the two schools met was 2012 when the Badgers overcame a 14-3 halftime deficit to defeat the Aggies 16-14 after Josh Thompson missed a potential game-winning 36-yard field goal with 14 seconds left. Wisconsin is coming in off an 11-3 season and a win in the Cotton Bowl, and will also bring back a very experienced nucleus.
When Wisconsin runs the ball...
It is difficult to do these sorts of articles prior to week one due to all the uncertainty about how much players will improve. However, Wisconsin is Wisconsin. First and foremost, this will be a running team. Despite the fact they lost two NFL running backs, Corey Clement and Dare Ogunbowale, the Badgers will still have a solid running game. The Badgers return sophomore Bradrick Shaw, who gained 457 yards and more than five yards per carry as a freshman. Bucky also gains junior transfer from Pittsburgh, Chris James. In his two seasons with the Panthers, James gained nearly 700 yards on the ground and rushed for 4.8 yards per carry. Coaches have raved about James ever since he transferred. In addition to his rushing skills, he also has been a tremendous receiving back in practice, something will be needed to offset the loss of Ogunbowale. The offensive line returns four starters and will look to finally be a ‘Wisconsin’ offensive line again. Last season, Utah State finished 89th in the country, allowing 203.3 rushing yards per game, as well as 19 touchdowns. Five of the front seven are gone, so the Aggies will need to do some rebuilding up front. With its experience and talent along the offensive line, Wisconsin should dominate the trenches. I expect Shaw and James to have big nights, and if he doesn’t redshirt, we should see plenty of talented freshman Jonathan Taylor.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes the football...
I am interested to see how this has improved since last season. Last year in 12 games, Alex Hornibrook threw for just 1,262 yards and nine touchdowns. In order for the Badgers to take the next step, he will need to improve. As a sophomore in 2004, John Stocco had similar numbers to Hornibrook’s freshman campaign. Stocco took a big step his next two years and became a very solid quarterback for the Badgers. Wisconsin will need the same sort of progression from Hornibrook. He will have plenty of weapons at his disposal this season. Troy Fumagalli is one of the nation’s top tight ends, and the Badgers will look to him early and often. Wisconsin also returns No. 1 wide receiver Jazz Peavy, who had 635 yards and five touchdowns last season. Gone is No. 2 wideout Rob Wheelwright, but the Badgers have a few options to try to help take the pressure off Peavy and Fumagalli. Sophomore Quintez Cephus looked great at camp and freshman Danny Davis has made several eye-opening plays in camp. If one of those two emerges and Hornibrook improves a bit, the Badgers could have a very good passing attack to go along with a dynamic ground game. In passing yardage allowed last season, Utah State actually ranked 10th. However, that dropped to 67th in opponents QB rating, which means teams generally didn’t try (or need to) run against the Aggies in 2016. Utah State does have experience in the secondary, though. Safety Dallin Leavitt is the leading tackler returning (57), and led the team in interceptions a year ago (3). Cornerback Jalen Davis has also started all 35 games he has played in. This is a talented and experienced group, but the defensive line will need to pressure Hornibrook in order for them to be able to stop the Badgers through the air.
Edge: Push
When Utah State runs the ball...
Utah State finished the season at 81st in the country with 170.5 rush yards per game. However, its five yards per carry finished 42nd. As a matter of fact, Utah State actually had a better yards per carry than Wisconsin did in 2016. However, that will take a hit due to the Aggies losing four starters on the offensive line. Running back Tonny Lindsey is back, and he gained 763 yards and more than five yards per carry in place of the injured Devante Mays, who now is with the Green Bay Packers. Quarterback Kent Myers also rushed for 449 yards. On defense, Wisconsin returns its entire defensive line and the linebacker depth is incredible, especially at inside linebacker. Last season, the Badgers were second in the country in rush defense, allowing just 96.9 yards per game on the ground. With so much of the front seven returning for the Badgers and almost an entirely new offensive line for the Aggies, I imagine it will be tough sledding on the ground for the team from the Mountain West.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Utah State passes the ball...
Utah State returns its starting quarterback, as I mentioned above. Myers is more of a threat on the ground than through the air, as he just completed 58 percent of his passes and threw 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His yards per attempt was also at a career-worst 6.62. However, he did really well in his first two years, throwing for 21 touchdowns and throwing just six picks. As a sophomore, he had a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his yards per attempt were a shade over eight. Myers does return his top two receivers from last year, which is good news for the Aggies. Junior Ron’quavion Tarver had 46 catches for 602 yards and three touchdowns last season and sophomore Rayshad Lewis had 40 catches for 476 yards and two scores. Unfortunately for them, they will be going up against one of the best cornerback duos in the country. The Badgers lost Sojourn Shelton to graduation, but will replace him with Hawaii transfer Nick Nelson, who many think will have a breakout season and might be the best cornerback on the roster. Pair Nelson with senior Derrick Tindal and you have a deadly duo. The Badgers will also have to replace Leo Musso with Natrell Jamerson. The latter will have to learn a new position, but he has become comfortable with the switch and he has a solid guy to learn from in new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. Wisconsin was 11th in opposing quarterback rating, and I don’t see it falling off much, if at all. The real question coming into the season is who will put pressure on the quarterback, as both T.J. Watt and Vince Biegel are off to the NFL. That is one question the Badgers will need answered by the start of conference play.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
The Badgers will get back kicker Rafael Gaglianone, who missed the final 11 games of the season with a back injury. He was off to a fantastic start to his 2016 season, making seven of his first eight attempts, including a clutch 47-yard field goal against LSU in the season opener that proved to be the game-winner. After a slow start to his freshman season, punter Anthony Lotti was very solid down the stretch. For the season, his punting average wasn’t great at 37.7 yards per punt, but he put 25 inside the 20, which was third in the conference. Neither of the return teams was very strong last season. Utah State’s kicker will be sophomore Dominik Eberle, who made 3-of-5 field goals last year, but has only made one longer than 22 yards. Aaron Dalton is the Utah State punter, and the Aggies were 125th in the country in net punting. Neither of the return units were any good for Utah State in 2016. Because of Rafael Gaglianone, even though he is coming back from injury, I give the Badgers the advantage here.
Edge: Wisconsin
Overview
After three straight season openers against top competition, this feels like a bit of a letdown. Utah State should be a bit better this year, but still, Wisconsin should take it to its foes from the Mountain West. With the experience returning up front and the lack of playing experience up front for Utah State, the Badgers should win going away. Of course, I have seen Wisconsin lose to UNLV by 18 in my lifetime, so they can’t take any team lightly, but the Badgers should run at will against the Aggies and it should be over by halftime.
Prediction: Wisconsin 48, Utah State 10
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