There are six teams left. I went 2-1 in my first round predictions and came only a few points from going undefeated. This time, the tournament moves to Valparaiso, as the Crusaders are the top seed in the tournament.Valparaiso is considered the favorite with the home court behind it as well as five starters in the starting lineup. Here are my predictions for the next two rounds:
Quarterfinals
No. 5 UIC vs. No. 4 Green Bay
Green Bay made its way to the second round with a 62-46 victory against Milwaukee Tuesday night. The Phoenix did not play very well, shooting just 34 percent, but it was good enough to knock off Milwaukee. However, if it does not shoot better against UIC, the Flames will be moving on. UIC started the game on a 30-6 run against Cleveland State in the first round and coasted to an 82-59 victory. The teams split the two regular season games, with each team winning at home. The Phoenix posted a 53-47 victory in Green Bay, and UIC overcame a late second half deficit to beat Green Bay 60-57 in Chicago. Gary Talton only averaged 10.5 points against the Phoenix in the two meetings, so he needs to get going if the Flames want to win. Hayden Humes and Josh Crittle scored 33 points combined in UIC's victory this year over Green Bay. Alec Brown will need to slow Crittle down. In the first meeting, Brown scored 21 of the team's 53 points, while Sykes scored 18 in the second meeting. Both will need to be on their game to beat the Flames tomorrow night.
Prediction: Green Bay 57, UIC 51
No. 6 Youngstown State vs. No. 3 Wright State
Youngstown State won yet another thriller against Loyola when D.J. Cole banked in a last-second shot and the Penguins earned a 62-60 victory over the visiting Ramblers. Youngstown State beat Loyola three times on the season by a combined five points. Next up is Wright State, who earned a bye in the first round. The teams met in the last game of the season and Wright State ran away with it 72-45 in Dayton last weekend. Once again, all indications are that Youngstown State leading scorer Kendrick Perry will miss this game, which would be a huge blow to the Penguins chances. Wright State has arguably the best defense in the conference and for a team already struggling to score in Youngstown State without Perry, it would be that much harder to win.
Prediction: Wright State 64, Youngstown State 48
Semifinals
No. 4 Green Bay at No. 1 Valparaiso
The Phoenix had a chance to lock up the No. 3 seed and a first round bye, assuring itself of not having to face Valparaiso until the championship game. But all of that went away when Valparaiso came into Green Bay and rode the hot shooting of Matt Kenney, who scored 23 points on 7-of-7 shooting and 6-of-6 from 3-point range, and won 75-56, forcing Green Bay to play Milwaukee Tuesday night. I don't expect Matt Kenney to shoot like that again, but on the flip side, Ryan Broekhoff has shot just 33 percent from the field and 25 percent from 3-point range in the two meetings against Green Bay so far this year. The seven points he scored in the regular season finale was his first game in single digits since having just eight points at Nebraska Nov. 15. Sykes and Brown need to play their best to have a chance. But with five seniors starting, I think the veteran Crusaders are too much.
Prediction: Valparaiso 70, Green Bay 58
No. 3 Wright State vs. No. 2 Detroit
Detroit is a weird team to figure out. One game it can go out and win at Valparaiso or clobber Youngstown State and UIC by more than 40, but then can also lose to Cleveland State, which finished eighth in the conference. It will be a matchup of good offense against good defense. Wright State leads the Horizon League in scoring defense, while Detroit leads the conference in scoring offense, led by Horizon League Player of the Year Ray McCallum. Wright State is last in the conference in scoring offense, but Detroit is last in the conference in scoring defense. Detroit and Wright State split their meetings in the regular season, with both teams winning on the road. When Detroit plays up to its potential, it is the best team in the conference, in my opinion. Detroit knows it is do or die time and the Titans come out on top, setting up a rematch of last year's Horizon League Tournament championship game.
Prediction: Detroit 71, Wright State 60
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