With tomorrow being Flashback Friday and Saturday being the Best of the Week, I thought I would give my keys to the games this weekend involving the Green Bay Phoenix and Wisconsin Badgers. Green Bay plays Saturday afternoon on ESPNU against league-leading Valparaiso, while Wisconsin hosts Purdue in an attempt to stay in the race for a Big Ten championship.
Green Bay will try to lock up the No. 3 seed in the Horizon League Tournament when it plays Valparaiso Saturday. The Crusaders have already locked up the regular season conference crown and thus, will host the conference tournament until they lose or win the tournament. Back in January, the Phoenix faltered down the stretch, as Valparaiso closed the game on a 12-3 run to seal a 73-62 win. Here are the keys to a Green Bay win Saturday:
1) Keep Valpo off the free throw line
In the first meeting, Valparaiso shot 33 free throws, making 27. Specifically, the Phoenix needs to keep reigning Horizon League Player of the Year Ryan Broekhoff off the foul line. In the first matchup, Broekhoff went just 2-of-7 from the field, but more than made up for it at the free throw line, going 14-of-15. He leads the conference in free throw percentage and is 23rd nationally in that category. If the Phoenix can limit the free throws Valparaiso gets, Green Bay has a good chance of coming out on top.
2) Win the rebounding battle
The teams are tied for first in the conference with identical plus-4.7 rebounding margins. Last game, Green Bay won the battle of the boards 31-28, including nine offensive. Another battle in rebounds will be between Broekhoff and Jordan Fouse, who are tied for the conference lead in rebounding. The team that wins the rebounding battle and the second chance points has a very good chance of winning.
3) Defend the 3-pointer
Valparaiso leads the conference in 3-point shooting at 37 percent. That percentage ranks it 47th in the country. Broekhoff is its top weapon from deep, shooting it at a 43.6 percent clip from long range. Will Bogan also shoots it from deep at more than 40 percent. Valparaiso takes a lot of 3-pointers and makes a lot of them. In the first meeting, the Phoenix allowed Valpo to shot just 28.6 percent from behind the 3-point line. If it does that again, we will be looking at a different outcome.
Prediction: Green Bay 64, Valparaiso 60
Now Wisconsin enters Senior Day on Sunday in need of another win. Purdue is coming off a 58-48 loss at Iowa last night and unless it makes a remarkable run in the Big Ten Tournament, its season will be coming to an end shortly. However, the Boilermakers want to make their presence felt before their season is over. Wisconsin has gotten help over the past two nights with Minnesota's win against No. 1 Indiana Tuesday and previously 0-14 Penn State stunning No. 4 Michigan last night. Wisconsin now sits tied for second in the conference with Michigan State, one game behind Indiana and one game ahead of Michigan and Ohio State. With all that being said, Wisconsin cannot be looking ahead to its monumental game against Michigan State next week, so here are the keys to Sunday's game:
1) Contain A.J. Hammons
In a conference that is loaded with young, promising freshmen from Gary Harris to Glenn Robinson III to Wisconsin's Sam Dekker, one of the more overlooked freshmen is 7-foot center A.J. Hammons. The freshman is averaging 10.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and two blocks per game. He is also shooting it at 50.6 percent. Jared Berggren will have his work cut out for him, but as long as he and the Johnson brothers don't go off, Wisconsin should be fine.
2) Give the ball to Dekker and Brust
Ben Brust has scored in double figures the past six games and Dekker has scored in double figures in the last five. In those six games Brust has scored at 10 least in, Wisconsin is 5-1. In the past five games, Dekker is averaging 13.6 points per game and shooting at an impressive 61 percent clip from the field and 55 percent from 3-point territory. These are the two best scorers on the team and need to put up between 20 and 25 shots between them.
3) Do not look ahead
Even though it is Senior Day, Bo Ryan will have to convince his players to not look ahead to the big game in East Lansing a week from today. Wisconsin has dominated its past three opponents by an average of 27 points per game and on paper, this should be another blowout. Purdue is 6-9 in conference and below .500 overall. It has only won two road games in conference and has no wins over teams currently in the top 25. But Terone Johnson has the ability to go off. He will be hungry to get back on the court after going scoreless in yesterday's game at Iowa. It will be a tough test for whoever Ryan decides to put on him.
Prediction: Wisconsin 70, Purdue 53
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