Wisconsin/Minnesota preview

Hey, everybody, IT’S AXE WEEK! The Wisconsin Badgers come into the game at 11-0, trying to finish their first undefeated regular season since 1912 when the Badgers went 7-0. In that season, Wisconsin outscored opponents 246-29, including four shutouts. However, the Badgers did start off playing powerhouse Lawrence College. Back to 2017, Wisconsin is 11-0 and 8-0 in conference, while Minnesota is going through a rough season under first-year coach P.J. Fleck. The Gophers are playing for a bowl berth, as they come in at 5-6 with a 2-6 Big Ten mark. With a win this week and next week against Ohio State, Wisconsin will clinch its first College Football Playoff berth. Bucky comes in having won 13 consecutive games against his rivals directly to the West, and came back from a 10-point halftime deficit last year to beat Minnesota 31-17 to finish a 10-2 regular season. The last time these teams met in Minneapolis was 2015 when Dare Ogunbowale ran for 155 yards and Taiwan Deal ran for 90 as the Badgers came out of Minnesota with a 31-21 victory. How about this for an odd stat? In all four meetings at TCF Bank Stadium, Minnesota has had a non-offensive touchdown. Maybe Athletic Director Barry Alvarez will come down and play the 1993 game as motivation. Wisconsin would go 10-1-1 with the only loss coming in Minneapolis. Despite outgaining Minnesota 605-385, the Badgers turned the ball over six times in a 28-21 loss to the Gophers for their only loss of the season. Without that, Wisconsin wins, or at least shares, the National Championship. Also, the winner of this game takes the series lead. Right now, the series is tied 59-59-8 and the Badgers have never led in this series. It’s going to be a big game at TCF Bank Stadium with more than just the axe at stake.

When Wisconsin runs...

Obviously, the run game revolves around the Doak Walker Award finalist, Jonathan Taylor. The freshman is third in the country in rush yards and the Badgers are ranked 21st in the country as a team in rush yards per game with 239.3. Taylor is coming off a nice game, rushing for 132 yards on 19 carries against a really good Michigan run defense. Minnesota, on the other hand, is ranked 62nd, giving up nearly 162 yards rushing per game. However, the Gophers have been shredded on the ground as of late. In two of the last three games, Minnesota has allowed at least 277 yards on the ground. In those two games, the Gophers have been outscored 72-10. Well, the Badgers have a better ground game than either of those two teams. Against Michigan, Minnesota was gashed. In the game, the Wolverines gained 371 yards rushing and averaged 10 yards per carry. They nearly had two players hit the 200-yard rushing mark, Karan Higdon had 200 yards and Chris Evans had 191 yards (sacks count against rushing, so that is why they “only" had 371). Unfortunately for Minnesota, it has to prepare for others in addition to Taylor. First of all, Bradrick Shaw has been running a bit better as of late.....and then, Goldy has to worry about the Badgers jet sweep. Freshman wide receiver Kendric Pryor has been a beast on the sweep. A week after a 25-yard touchdown run on that play against Iowa, he scored on a 32-yard sweep against Michigan. Wisconsin’s rushing attack is on a roll right now. I have a hard time seeing Minnesota slow the Bucky run game down. Taylor has rushed for more than 200 yards three times on the season, but hasn’t done so since the Purdue game Oct. 14. It would not surprise me to see him do that again. As a matter of fact, I will predict he gets 230 yards and a pair of scores in a big Wisconsin win.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Alex Hornibrook is what he is at this point: inconsistent. He made a terrible throw that was picked off by Michigan’s Devin Bush, which helped give Michigan the lead. But what does he do next? He throws three perfect passes, all on third-and-long on two consecutive touchdown drives to give Bucky a 21-10 lead. Michigan is ranked No. 1 in the country in pass defense, so it wasn’t that surprising that he had trouble throwing, especially with his top two wide receivers out. In order to beat a good team, the Wisconsin quarterback will have to make plays, and he did just that in the second half against Michigan. Fortunately, he should have an easier time against Minnesota’s defense. Yes, the Gophers pass defense is ranked 13th in pass yards allowed per game. but the pass efficiency is more middle of the pack, ranking 45th in the country and eighth in the Big Ten. Opposing quarterbacks have also completed 62 percent of their passes against this pass defense, which is 13th out of the 14 teams in the conference. So, yes, that 13th in the country ranking is deceiving. I mean, who would pass the ball when teams are having success running it....and why would you pass the ball quite a bit when you are ahead anyway? In three of the last four games, Minnesota didn’t lead for one second. I don’t expect too much pressure on Hornibrook, either, as the Gophers are ninth in the Big Ten in sacks (23) and the Badgers have allowed the third fewest in the Big Ten (17), just one behind Ohio State and Rutgers for the conference lead. I certainly don’t expect Hornibrook to air it out much, especially when he has a running back like Taylor behind him. However, I do think he will do enough to keep Minnesota’s defense off balance and open up a few running lanes for Jonathan Taylor, Shaw and Pryor. I expect Hornibrook to throw for about 150 yards and a touchdown. As long as the sophomore quarterback does not give the game to the Gophers, the Badgers should be in great shape.

Edge: Push

When Minnesota runs...

Junior Shannon Brooks is not on this week’s depth chart provided by the Gophers. He has missed four of the last five games. Fellow junior Rodney Smith is playing, and following a slow start in which he couldn’t even hit four yards per carry in three of his first four games, he has picked it up lately. In four of the last five games, he has hit five yards per carry, including a 134-yard performance in Minnesota’s dominating win over Nebraska. Senior Kobe McCrary does not get the number of carries Smith does, but he is effective as well. He has had 10 carries in each of the past two games and has gained 162 yards. Somehow, Smith and McCrary combined for 165 yards on 28 carries last game in Evanston.....and scored zero points. Quarterback Demry Croft is also a runner. He had a monster game against Nebraska, carrying the ball 10 times for 183 yards and three touchdowns. In the other five games he has received significant minutes in, Croft has failed to run for more than 31 yards, but he does have that ability. It’s like having another running back on the field for the Gophers. Cam Thomas of Illinois is a similar quarterback to the Minnesota sophomore and Wisconsin had a little trouble stopping him. Against Illinois, despite posing no threat through the air, Thomas ran 10 times for 78 yards in Wisconsin’s 24-10 win last month. Fortunately, though, for Wisconsin is that Croft is the only guy they will have to game plan against, so I feel they’ll be more than ready for the running ability of Croft. Minnesota will need to do all of its damage on the ground, as the Gophers have virtually no passing attack to speak of. After struggling a bit to stop the run through the middle portion of the schedule, Wisconsin has shut down the last two ground attacks when faced with a challenge. Against two hot ground attacks (especially Michigan’s), the Badgers stingy defense allowed just 83 yards on 63 carries, a yards per carry average of 1.26. The No. 1 ranked Wisconsin defense has not allowed 100 yards on the ground the last three weeks, and averaged giving up just 41 rush yards per game in those contests. It looks like this run defense is hitting its stride, and if the Gophers don’t rush for at least 150 yards, they have no chance.....and no team has rushed for that many against Bucky this year.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Minnesota passes...

I mentioned last paragraph that Minnesota virtually has another running back on the field in Croft. Well, unfortunately for the Gophers, he also throws like a running back. On the season, he is completing just 42.5 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and seven interceptions. Since becoming the full-time starter against Illinois, his numbers have somehow managed to get worse. In the five games he has started, he has completed just 37 percent of his passes with just one touchdown and six interceptions and has just 81.6 passing yards per game. That won’t get it done. Croft had a nice game against Michigan State in relief of senior Conor Rhoda and nearly led them back to victory, but he has proved he can’t perform when teams have game planned for him so far. Against the only pass defenses remotely comparable to Wisconsin (Michigan and Iowa), Croft went 14-of-41 (34 percent) for 213 yards with an interception. Unfortunately for him, he will likely be without do-everything wide receiver Tyler Johnson once again this week. The sophomore is Minnesota’s leading receiver this year and he broke his wrist in the 54-21 win over Nebraska two weeks ago. Johnson has 35 catches for 677 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. The rest of the Gophers team has 72 catches for 796 yards and two touchdowns. Freshman wide receiver Phillip Howard is second on the team in receiving yards......with 132. It will be tough for Minnesota to throw the ball even with Johnson, but it will virtually impossible to get any sort of passing attack going against this Wisconsin pass defense, which ranks sixth in pass yards allowed per game. Amazingly, the No. 6 ranking seems a little low. In pass efficiency defense, the Badgers are second in the nation, only trailing Alabama. Teams have completed less than 50 percent of their passes against this defense and have only averaged 5.5 yards per pass against it. The eight passing touchdowns allowed is tied for fifth in the country and tied for fewest in the Big Ten. The 15 interceptions is 11th nationally and second in the conference, only behind Iowa’s 16. Nick Nelson has 20 pass break-ups on the year, which is the most in a single season in school history, and Derrick Tindal is no slouch either. Wisconsin also leads the Big Ten in sacks. All signs point to Minnesota having a tough time trying to throw the ball. If Croft is forced to try to beat Wisconsin through the air, the Fighting P.J. Flecks have no shot.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

Both teams have reliable field goal kickers. Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is 11-of-13 on field goal attempts this year and has made his last five. Emmit Carpenter is 14-of-18 on his attempts this year and he also has made his previous five. Last year, the Green Bay native connected on 22-of-24 attempts in being named the Big Ten’s Bakken-Andersen Kicker of the Year. Minnesota’s punter Ryan Santoso is also a weapon, averaging 43.3 yards per punt, which is third in the conference. Anthony Lotti is a shade under 40 yards per punt, which is 10th in the conference. Smith is a dangerous return man for Minnesota on kick returns, averaging 24.7 yards per return and has already returned one for a score 100 yards against Nebraska. Fortunately for Wisconsin, Zach Hintze is a weapon, as he is 19th in the nation in touchback percentage (65.6 percent). Nick Nelson is dangerous as a punt returner for the Badgers. He returned a punt 50 yards for a score against Michigan, as well as a 19-yard return late in the game. Of punt returners in the conference with at least seven returns, Nelson ranks third in the Big Ten with an 8.8-yard average.

Edge: Push

Overview

I have a hard time seeing Minnesota put up much of a fight for a whole 60 minutes. Wisconsin is just better all around. The Gophers won’t be able to shut down the Badgers offense for the entire game and unless Wisconsin turns it over a bunch like in 1993, I don’t see the Minnesota offense doing much, especially with no passing game. I see Wisconsin in a defensive struggle to start, but like in most games, I think Wisconsin pulls away in the second half to improve to 12-0 and get one step closer to the College Football Playoff. The game will be televised on ABC at 2:30 on Saturday. Mark Jones and Rod Gilmore will be on the call.

Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 3