When Wisconsin runs...
Strength vs. strength. This will be a fun matchup. Freshman running back Jonathan Taylor comes in third in the country in rushing with 1,525 yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. He is coming off a nice game against Iowa, rushing for 157 yards en route to earning his sixth Big Ten Freshman of the Week award. As a team, Wisconsin is 18th in the country and second in the conference in rushing at 245 yards per game. But Bucky’s offensive line faces its toughest challenge of the season, as Michigan’s defensive line is one of the best in the country, led by star defensive tackle Maurice Hurst. The Wolverines come in at 10th in the country in rush defense and third in the Big Ten, only allowing 110.3 rush yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry. Not only is the starting defensive line excellent, but they have solid depth as well. On the flip side, though, Michigan has not played a rushing attack as good as Wisconsin’s. That includes Saquon Barkley and Penn State. Barkley had a long touchdown run, but only had 14 carries for 39 yards outside of that. What would worry me about Wisconsin is that teams that tend to hurt Michigan are teams with running quarterbacks. Penn State’s Trace McSorley killed Michigan on the ground with 76 yards. Alex Hornibrook, on the other hand, is a statue in the pocket and has a season-long run of one yard. He makes Joel Stave look like Michael Vick in that regard. It will be exciting to see this matchup. Taylor has a chance to make a statement. With a big game and a Wisconsin win, I think Taylor could cement himself in the Heisman discussion and maybe even book a trip to New York.
Edge: Push
When Wisconsin is passing...
Alex Hornibrook once again struggled against Iowa, throwing three interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns. As my brother said after the Iowa game, Wisconsin would be Alabama if it had a halfway decent quarterback. That is not far off, as I think the Badgers have a top four or five team easily if you were to take out the quarterback. Hornibrook just cannot keep making poor decisions if he wants to lead the Badgers to the College Football Playoff. The sophomore quarterback has thrown at least one interception in all seven conference games and eight of Wisconsin’s 10 games this season. After starting out hot with eight touchdowns and one pick in non-conference play, he just has nine touchdowns compared to 11 picks in the Big Ten. He actually had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in conference play last season, throwing six touchdowns to six interceptions. Hornibrook will obviously need to have a better performance than he had last season against Michigan, when he went just 9-of-25 for 88 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. He will once again be without his top two wide receivers, Jazz Peavy and Quintez Cephus. Danny Davis, A.J. Taylor and Kendric Pryor have stepped up and will need to step up once again against the Wolverines. However, simply put, Michigan is the top pass defense in the country. The Wolverines are No. 1 in opponents passing yards per game, No. 3 in opponents quarterback rating, No. 2 in completion percentage and No. 4 in yards per attempt. This is a tall order for Hornibrook and the Wisconsin passing attack. However, as good as Michigan’s pass defense is, the defense only has picked off eight passes this season, which is 10th in the Big Ten. I mentioned the intriguing matchup in the trenches with Wisconsin’s rush offense against Michigan’s rush defense above. Well, the lines also are intriguing when the Badgers pass the ball. Wisconsin has allowed just 14 sacks on the season, which is second in the conference, while Michigan has sacked opposing quarterbacks 33 times, which is fifth in the country and second in the conference (only to Wisconsin). When Hornibrook passes, he will need the pocket to be clean due to him lacking mobility. Paul Chryst will need to keep Michigan guessing with his play calling and maybe throwing with Hornibrook on early downs to try to find some sort of passing attack.
Edge: Michigan
When Michigan runs...
Michigan does not use just one running back, as three backs for the team have at least 500 yards rushing, led by junior Karan Higdon. The Wolverines come in 30th at rushing with 207.8 yards per game, but in the last three since sophomore Brandon Peters has been the quarterback, Michigan has ran the ball for an average of 288 yards per game. Not surprisingly, this offense that struggled for much of the year has averaged 34 points per game in those three weeks. Even including the sacks, the Wolverines averaged 10 yards per carry against Minnesota. Higdon has rushed for at least 150 yards in three of his last five games, including 200 in two of those. In the last three games, he has averaged 136 yards rushing per game and has an incredible 9.3 yards per carry. However, Higdon missed the second half of this past Saturday's game against Maryland. The team is hopeful he'll be ready for Wisconsin. Sophomore Chris Evans had struggled his first eight games of the season, rushing for less than 300 yards and just 3.9 yards per carry. However, in his last two games, he has averaged 135.5 yards per game and has averaged 9.7 yards per carry. Four of his six touchdowns have come in those last two games as well. Michigan’s ground attack is on a roll right now and Wisconsin’s run defense will have its hands full. For as good as Michigan’s rushing attack has been the past few games, the Badgers run defense is coming off its best showing of the season. Iowa is solid at rushing the ball behind Akrum Wadley, but the Wisconsin run defense shut him and Iowa down. In 26 carries for the Hawkeyes, they rushed for just 25 yards. Wadley was held to just eight carries for 23 yards and fellow running back James Butler only rushed for 30 yards on eight carries. Even without the sacks, Iowa rushed for just 69 yards on 20 carries. With that effort, Bucky’s run defense vaulted to the top of the country in that category, allowing just 81.5 yards per game. The Badgers have also allowed only three rushing touchdowns on the year, which also leads the country. Of those three, only one has come in Big Ten play and that one was a touchdown by Kendrick Foster in the final minute of Wisconsin’s win over Illinois. This is another strength vs. strength matchup and who wins up front will win the game.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Michigan passes...
After starting the season as the starter, Wilton Speight got hurt against Purdue in late September and has not played since. He is just now practicing again, but will not play on Saturday. Following the Speight injury, Michigan turned to John O’Korn. After struggling mightily, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions in five games, O’Korn was benched in favor of Peters. The sophomore does not have the most gaudy statistics, but he has stabilized the position. In three games since becoming the starter, he has thrown for an average of just 108 yards per game, but has thrown four touchdowns and no interceptions. The running game has also helped the young quarterback immensely. Much like when Wisconsin has the ball, if the Badgers slow down the Wolverines ground game, it will be tough for Michigan to walk out of Camp Randall a winner. I mentioned during the Wisconsin passing portion of the article that Michigan’s pass defense is the best in the country. Well, if Michigan is the best in the nation, Wisconsin is not far behind. After holding Iowa’s Nate Stanley to just 41 yards passing, Wisconsin’s pass defense rose up to No. 7 in opponents passing yards per game. It does not stop there, though. Wisconsin leads the country in pass efficiency at 94.5, No. 7 with 15 interceptions, No. 2 in yards per attempt and No. 5 in completion percentage. Michigan and Wisconsin are 1-2 in virtually every single pass defense ranking in the Big Ten. One interesting statistic is sacks when Michigan passes. Wisconsin enters this game leading the Big Ten and tied for third in the country with 35 sacks, while Michigan comes into this game at No. 13 in the conference in allowing sacks, having allowed 27 on the season. Only Illinois has allowed more sacks in the conference. Wisconsin will need to pressure Peters into making a few mistakes and give the Badgers a short field.
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
In kicking, I will give Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone the edge. The junior kicker has made his last four attempts, while Michigan’s Quinn Nordin has gone in the opposite direction. After starting out extremely well, making 14 of his first 16, Nordin has missed his last three attempts. With Nordin getting plenty of opportunities (most in the Big Ten), he needs to figure it out quickly. The punters are pretty even, but Donovan Peoples-Jones has returned a punt for a touchdown and averages 8.5 yards per return. As good as Peoples-Jones is as a punt returner, Michigan’s kick returning is less than stellar, ranking 100th in the country. Wisconsin might have a slight edge, but overall, it is pretty even.
Edge: Push
Overview
This will be a defensive struggle. The teams are mirror images of one another in many ways. The biggest factor in this game will be turnovers. Wisconsin is +3 as it has forced 22 this season, which is tied for tops in the conference. However, the Badgers have given it away 19 times, which is second most in the Big Ten. Michigan comes in at -1 in turnover margin, so if Wisconsin can give its offense a short field, Bucky will be in great shape. Hornibrook needs to take care of the ball this week. I challenge him to not turn the ball over once. The Badgers can’t afford the type of mistakes he has made during conference play this weekend. The winner on third down will play a big role in the outcome as well. Wisconsin is first in the Big Ten in third down percentage, while Michigan is tops in allowing third down conversions. The Wolverines are one of the worst teams in converting third downs (33.1%, 12th in the conference), while Wisconsin is No. 2 in the conference in allowing third down conversions (29.3%). It will be a defensive battle, but I think Taylor makes a few plays on the ground and the Badgers force a few interceptions, giving their offense a short field and Wisconsin comes out on top.
Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Michigan 13
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