When Wisconsin runs...
Many did not know if Jonathan Taylor would actually play against Indiana. Play he did....and he played very well. He rushed 29 times for 183 yards and a score in the 28-point win over the Hoosiers. Paul Chryst showed something he has not shown this year, the jet sweep with Taylor. He has run it with Jazz Peavy and A.J. Taylor, but not with Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan ran it a few times on the jet sweep against Indiana, including one when he ran 32 yards for the score to give Bucky a 24-10 lead. The freshman moved up to third in the country in rushing yards, and as a team, the Badgers are 16th in the country in rush yards per game, averaging nearly 245 per. On defense, Iowa is allowing 147 rushing yards per game, which is 46th nationally. Even though Ohio State was obliterated last week, it showed it could run a bit on Iowa. The Buckeyes ran for 163 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Ohio State’s stellar freshman running back J.K. Dobbins just ran the ball six times, for some reason. In those six carries, he ran for 51 yards. I don’t know why the Buckeyes went away from him. But in the two games prior to the Ohio State game, Iowa held both Northwestern and Minnesota to fewer than four yards per carry. There is no doubt Wisconsin has a better offensive line than those two teams, though. It was nice to see Bradrick Shaw get going a little bit against Indiana because he will be needed down the stretch, especially if Taylor gets banged up even more. This was the first time in Big Ten play in which he has averaged better than four yards per carry.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Wisconsin passes...
Alex Hornibrook played solid against Indiana, but now is without his top two wide receivers and will now have to go up against one of the best cornerbacks in the nation, Iowa’s Josh Jackson, who is coming off a three interception game against Ohio State. Not only was he really good in the Mighty Ducks series, but Jackson leads the country with 15 pass break-ups and is tied for second with five interceptions. It will be tough to pass against this group. Hornibrook will need to throw toward Troy Fumagalli quite a bit this week. He has been under utilized now with the emergence of Quintez Cephus, but Hornibrook will need to rely on his senior tight end the rest of the regular season. Iowa comes in at 66th against the pass, but their 108.3 opponents quarterback rating ranks 13th nationally and third in the conference in opponents pass efficiency. Much of that is due to their 13 interceptions on the year, which is tied for seventh in the country and is second in the conference, only behind Wisconsin’s 14. Hornibrook will have to make some plays the passing game to loosen things up for Jonathan Taylor a bit. Iowa has 20 sacks on the season, which ranks seventh in the Big Ten and the Badgers have only allowed 12 sacks on the year so far, which is second in the conference.Edge: Iowa
When Iowa runs...
Akrum Wadley is one of the better running backs in the Big Ten, but he has struggled this year behind a young and banged up Iowa offensive line. After rushing for six yards per carry the last two years, Wadley has averaged just over four yards per carry in 2017. However, Wadley and the offensive line looked tremendous against the great front of Ohio State. Wadley rushed for 118 yards on 20 carries, only the second time in the last seven games he has reached the century mark in rushing. In four of the past five games prior to the Ohio State game for the Hawkeyes as a whole, the team did not even hit four yards per carry. That one game they did was against lowly Illinois. It will be interesting to see if that is a sign of things to come or if that was just an anomaly. As a team, Iowa is 10th in the conference in rushing, averaging a shade over 143 rush yards per game and is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Now we’ll see if it is the start of something when Iowa comes to Camp Randall. The Badgers are second in the conference in rush defense, allowing just under 88 yards per game. They have allowed some teams to run on them a bit recently, though. However, after Indiana had a few nice runs early on last Saturday, the Wisconsin defense shut them down. The Hoosiers gave up on the run after the first few drives, even when the game was still close. Some of that is due to Indiana finding success threw the air a bit and struggling on the ground. For the game, Indiana ran for 41 yards, but 29 of those yards came on the final drive when the game was out of reach. Before that final drive, the Hoosiers averaged less than one yard per carry. Iowa will look to run quite a bit more than Indiana, and Wisconsin will have to stop Wadley first before focusing on the Hawkeyes passing attack.
Edge: Wisconsin
When Iowa passes the ball...
This is an interesting matchup as Wisconsin native Nate Stanley comes back to his home state to take on the Badgers. What makes this even more interesting is that many believe he would have been a Badger had former Wisconsin coach Gary Andersen tried hard to bring him in. As it is, he went to Iowa since the Hawkeyes recruited him hard and by the time Paul Chryst was hired by Wisconsin and got involved with Stanley, it was too late. The sophomore is coming off a remarkable game against Ohio State, going 20-of-31 for 226 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He is the only player in the last 20 years to have 5+ passing touchdowns and 0 interceptions vs. Ohio State. In other Stanley news, the former Big Rivers Conference standout has 22 touchdown passes this season. The single season record in Iowa history is Chuck Long with 26. Iowa still has 4 games left. The final impressive stat about Stanley is that he has played four ranked opponents this season. In those games he's thrown 12 touchdowns and no picks.To put it mildly, Stanley is having a fantastic season. But even with the great Ohio State defense, this will be his toughest test yet statistically. In pass defense, the Badgers are 18th in the country in terms of yards per game, which is fourth in the Big Ten, but that certainly does not tell the entire story. In opponents quarterback rating and yards per attempt, Wisconsin is fifth in the country. In passing touchdowns, the Badgers have only allowed eight all year, which is 12th nationally and second in the Big Ten. Interceptions? Wisconsin has 14 of those, which is tied for fourth in the country and tops in the conference. Every statistic you see about pass defense, the Badgers are near the top. Another great matchup will be the Iowa offensive line against the mighty Wisconsin pass rush. Iowa has only allowed 12 sacks this year, which is tied with Wisconsin and Michigan State for the second fewest sacks allowed in the conference. On the other hand, the Badgers have sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times this season, which is fifth in the country and second in the conference. It will be interesting to see if Stanley can keep up his stellar play against arguably the best secondary in the country,
Edge: Wisconsin
Special Teams
The special teams groups are very even. In kicking, both Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone and Iowa’s Miguel Recinos have made 9-of-11 field goal attempts on the year. Recinos is 4-of-4 past 40 yards this season, while Gaglianone has made his last three attempts, including a career-long 52-yarder against Illinois two weeks ago. Both punters are below average and are in the bottom half of the Big Ten in that category. The teams are right next to each other in Big Ten rankings in kickoff coverage, kick returns and punt returns. If some team can make a play in special teams, it will have a massive advantage, especially in a game that should be low scoring.
Edge: Push
Overview
With the Badgers without their top two wide receivers, Wisconsin will have to rely even more on the running game, if that is even possible. Fumagalli will need to be the focal point in the passing attack. I expect this to be a real low scoring game since Iowa and Wisconsin are two of the top four scoring defenses in the conference. Both teams have the ability to score some points as both are in the top five in the Big Ten in scoring, but I think it will be a tight, low scoring game with Jonathan Taylor making a few big runs to give Bucky the win at Camp Randall.
Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Iowa 13
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