Top 20 Current Coaches Who Have Not Made the Final Four

There is a big shake-up from last year’s list, as Virginia’s Tony Bennett (No. 2), Auburn’s Bruce Pearl (No. 6) and Texas Tech’s Chris Beard (No. 16) all made the Final Four from the first time. Here is my up-to-date list.

Honorable Mention:

Steve Alford, Nevada (509-269, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, four Sweet 16s)
Tim Cluess, Iona (198-108, six NCAA Tournament appearances)
Bobby Hurley, Arizona State (115-78, three NCAA Tournament appearances)
Dan Hurley, Connecticut (167-122, two NCAA Tournament appearances)
Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa (266-168, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)
Nate Oats, Alabama (96-43, three NCAA Tournament appearances)
Dave Rose, BYU (347-133, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

20. Brad Underwood, Illinois (135-66, four NCAA Tournament appearances)

The Illini started out awful this season, but showed signs of turning it around with wins against Maryland, Michigan State and at Ohio State, as well as a blowout of Minnesota. However, his team lost five of six to finish the season, and was blown out by Iowa in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. After an incredible run at Stephen F. Austin in which he led the Lumberjacks to an 89-14 record and an incredible 53-1 conference record, he led the Oklahoma State Cowboys to the tournament in 2017. He has had a rocky start to his Illinois coaching career, going just 26-39 with an 11-27 conference record. The state of Illinois is loaded with high-level prospects, so maybe Underwood can turn the program around since the Illini have not made the tournament since 2013.

19. Larry Krystkowiak, Utah (197-131, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Utah finished third in Pac 12 this year, but failed to make the tournament for the third consecutive season. This season snapped a streak of five consecutive seasons of 20+ wins. It is the third straight 11-7 Pac 12 season for him, but a poor conference and just a 17-14 record doomed his team. He has only made the NCAA Tournament twice in eight seasons at Utah, so time might be ticking and he could be let go if he fails to make it again in 2020. He came over to Utah after being an assistant for the New Jersey Nets. In his previous college head coaching job, at Montana, he took the Grizzlies to the tournament both years, including an upset of No. 5 Nevada in the opening round in 2006.

18. Leonard Hamilton, Florida State (554-426, 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Like a fine wine, Hamilton has improved with age. His head coaching career began in 1986 with Oklahoma State, and he lasted four seasons with a 47 percent winning percentage. He went to Miami for 10 years, turning around the program, and making the NCAA Tournament his final three seasons with the Hurricanes. Hamilton went to Florida State after a season with the Washington Wizards, and failed to make the NCAA Tournament in any of his first six seasons. He would make the tournament four straight years after that before missing it again in four consecutive seasons. But in the last three years, he has made it past the first round all three times, and made the Sweet 16 this year after making it to the Elite 8 in 2018. Florida State is in good hands with Hamilton moving forward.

17. Greg Gard, Wisconsin (80-47, three NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)

After taking over for the legendary Bo Ryan, Greg Gard turned around the Badgers season in 2015-16  after a 9-9 start and led Wisconsin to the Sweet 16 after Bronson Koenig’s buzzer beater. Following another Sweet 16 appearance when Wisconsin knocked off No. 1 overall seed Villanova, Gard’s bunch was thrashed with injuries and missed the tournament for the first time this millennium in 2018. They rebounded with a fourth place finish in the Big Ten, but were bounced in the first round by Oregon. This is officially Gard’s team now with Ethan Happ now out of eligibility. It should be interesting to see how the Badgers offense runs next season.

16. Scott Drew, Baylor (338-220, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, two Elite 8s)

It seems like many times in big games, Drew gets outcoached....but then you look up and see he has made it past the first weekend four times in eight tournament appearances. However, he has made the tournament just eight times in 16 seasons. I will say that Baylor was in rough, rough shape after the Patrick Dennehy scandal. He does deserve credit for turning the program around, and making the Bears regulars in the NCAA Tournament after making only one appearance in the Big Dance since 1950. Once his teams do get in the tournament, though, they either go far or get bounced by a lower-seeded team early. Drew has been a really solid coach for the Bears, and maybe at some point, he could get lucky and make a run to the Final Four. They fell in the second round against Gonzaga this season.

15. Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska (115-56, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Following a little more than three years with the Chicago Bulls of the NBA, Hoiberg is back in college where he had success at Iowa State, making the tournament four times in five seasons. However, he only made it past the first weekend once, and included in that was an embarrassing 60-59 loss to No. 14 UAB. He takes over a Nebraska team that has only one NCAA Tournament appearance this millennium and has not won an NCAA Tournament game in its history. Nebraska was a disappointing 19-17 overall and 6-14 in conference play after being predicted to finish second by some publications. Nebraska will be a completely different team, as possibly its top eight scorers will be gone. Isaiah Roby is going to the NBA Draft combine, but he could still come back. Hoiberg will have his work cut out for him.

14. Steve Prohm, Iowa State (187-82, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

After averaging more than 25 wins per season in his first six seasons as a coach, he has not made it past the first round in either of the past two, not making it in 2018 and being upset by Ohio State in 2019. His 2017-18 Iowa State team went just 13-18 and 4-14 in Big 12 play. The Cyclones were predicted to finish sixth in the tough Big 12, and that is exactly where they finished in the regular season. After a Sweet 16 run in his first year, his teams have failed to make it to the second weekend in the past three. It will be interesting to see if his seat gets a little warm if Iowa State fails to make the NCAA Tournament or gets bounced early.

13. Randy Bennett, St. Mary’s (414-174, seven NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Bennett has been an outstanding coach, having led his Gaels to 20+ wins in each of the last 12 seasons. However, he has only gone to the tournament in six of those seasons due to him being in the same conference as Mark Few and Gonzaga. St. Mary’s might not have made the NCAAs this past year if it weren’t for a 60-47 upset of Gonzaga in the WCC Title game. However, for the fifth time in his seven NCAA Tournament appearances, his team was bounced in the opening round. At some point he’ll need to advance further. Despite leading the Gaels to a 30-win season in 2017-18, they missed the tournament and were bounced in the NIT Quarterfinals. Bennett took over a woeful St. Mary’s program and has turned it into a powerful program. I wonder if Bennett will ever take an offer from a major conference job.

12. Mark Turgeon, Maryland (430-251, nine NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s)

Turgeon made one of the biggest jumps on this list, as he led the Terrapins to a fifth place finish in the Big Ten and a trip to the second round before losing on a last-second shot against LSU. Bruno Fernando will be tough to replace, as he is going to the NBA Draft, but that team was incredibly young. With a solid recruiting class coming in, the Terps could be one of the favorites in the conference next season. Before being hired at Maryland, Turgeon turned around Wichita State and led the Shockers to four consecutive postseason appearances. He then led the Texas A&M Aggies to NCAA Tournament appearances in all four of his seasons in College Station. He will need to prove more in the NCAA Tournament, though, as he has only led one team past the first weekend since he took the jump to a major conference school (11 years).

11. Archie Miller, Indiana (174-94, four NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

At Dayton, he went 139-63, but has been unable to carry over his success to Bloomington so far. Better success was expected with Indiana in year No. 2, but his record in conference was actually worse than in the first year. It was an odd season for the Hoosiers, as they swept Michigan State, beat Wisconsin, destroyed Marquette and beat Louisville. However, they also lost to Northwestern and Rutgers. Because of all the good wins, Indiana was on the tournament bubble until the end, but its fate was sealed when the Hoosiers lost to Ohio State in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. As a No. 1 seed, his team made a run in the NIT before losing to Wichita State in the region’s quarterfinals. At a school like Indiana, missing the NCAA Tournament for a fourth straight season (third under Miller) would be unacceptable and he would be feeling the heat.

10. Eric Musselman, Arkansas (110-34, three NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

Musselman started off a bit late in college basketball, starting as a head coach in 2015 after spending the previous 18 seasons either as a college assistant coach or in the NBA. In his first season, he rebuilt Nevada after a 9-22 season. He led the Wolfpack to a 15-win increase in 2015-16 and a CBI championship. In his next three seasons, he led them to three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances and a berth in the Sweet 16 in 2018, but his Wolfpack were bounced in the first round by No. 10 Florida this past season. Following the defeat, he left Reno to take his talents to Fayetteville, Arkansas, to coach the Razorbacks. Arkansas has made the tournament two of the last three and three of the last five seasons, but has not made an appearance in the second weekend since 1996.


9. Mike White, Florida (190-93, three NCAA Tournament appearances, one Elite 8)

White led the Gators to their third straight NCAA Tournament berth, following a season in which they played in the NIT. Florida finished with a 20-16 record and knocked off No. 7 Nevada in the first round before falling to No. 2 Michigan. In his final three years with Louisiana Tech, he led the Bulldogs to 83 wins and a conference title all three years. However, he could not get his team over the hump and into the Big Dance and had to settle for the NIT all three seasons. In 2017, his Gators led South Carolina at halftime in the Elite 8, but could not hold the lead.

8. Jamie Dixon, TCU (396-164, 12 NCAA Tournament appearances, two Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

After posting a 73 percent winning percentage with the Pitt Panthers, he moved on to his alma mater, TCU. Pitt was getting frustrated since Dixon had not made it past the first weekend since 2009. Prior to Dixon’s arrival in Fort Worth, the Horned Frogs were a doormat. In Trent Johnson’s four years with the program, TCU only had one winning season and was a combined 8-64 in conference play and never finished higher than ninth in the conference. Dixon quickly helped turn the program around, going 24-15 in his first year at the helm and led the Horned Frogs to the NIT championship. He used that as a springboard to 2017-18 in which TCU won 21 games and earned its first NCAA Tournament berth since 1998. Dixon had them in the NIT once again in 2019. Prior to Dixon, TCU had not made either the NCAA Tournament or NIT since 2005, and not made the Big Dance this millennium. He has them on the right track.

7. Mick Cronin, UCLA (365-171, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Cronin did nothing but win with Cincinnati. After back-to-back 30+-win seasons, the Bearcats won 28. However, all that regular season has not yielded results in the Big Dance. Under Cronin, the Bearcats averaged nearly 27 wins per season the past six seasons, but could never make it to the second weekend. He turned the Bearcats program around, but ultimately fans expect more than consistently losing in the first weekend. He was hired by UCLA, so expectations will be sky high. The Bruins haven’t made a trip to the round of 64 since Lonzo Ball was the point guard. That is unacceptable for a school like UCLA.

6. Chris Holtmann, Ohio State (159-109, five NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16)

Holtmann’s record is a little deceiving, as he turned around a Gardner-Webb program that had not had a winning record since 2005-06. In his first two seasons with the Runnin’ Bulldogs, they went 23-41 and did not finish higher than ninth in the Big South. However, in his third season, he led them to a 21-13 record and a berth in the CIT. He was hired to take over for a Butler legend in Brad Stevens and was 70-31 in three seasons and reached the Sweet 16 in 2017. Despite being predicted in the back half of the conference in the first two years with OSU, Holtmann led the Buckeyes to the NCAA Tournament both years, nearly winning the conference championship in 2018. Keita Bates-Diop left for the NBA, but the Buckeyes still made the tournament in 2019, going 20-15, and earning an 11 seed, upsetting Iowa State 62-59 in the first round.

5. Buzz Williams, Texas A&M (253-155, eight NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Williams took Virginia Tech to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1966-67 (!!!). That was before the modern format existed. That was ridiculously impressive. The Hokies were 9-22 before he came, and Williams turned the program around. Before this run, he had two close tournament losses to Wisconsin and Alabama. He averaged more than 23 wins per season with Marquette and made the Sweet 16 twice and an Elite 8. Now, Williams is off to Texas A&M, where the Aggies have never made it past the Sweet 16 in the modern tournament era. They have made the Sweet 16 twice since 2016, but could never make it past there. Williams has a golden chance to be able to turn A&M around and make the Final Four.

4. Mike Brey, Notre Dame (516-273, 14 NCAA Tournament appearances, one Sweet 16, two Elite 8s)

Mike Brey is losing equity on this list. He is still a damn good coach, but he has not made the tournament in either of the past two seasons and was bounced in the first weekend the season before that. Brey has had a solid tenure as the coach for Notre Dame, making the tournament 12 of his 19 years with the Fighting Irish, including back-to-back trips to the Elite 8 in 2015 and 2016. It is a little concerning for him that other than those back-to-back Elite 8 appearances, the Fighting Irish haven’t made it past the first weekend since 2003. The 60-year-old Brey may be running out of time to capture his elusive first trip the Final Four.

3. Matt Painter, Purdue (346-164, 12 NCAA Tournament appearances, four Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Painter finally broke through and made it to the Elite 8 with an epic Sweet 16 win against Tennessee. Then, they lost in another epic game, against Virginia, so he remains on this list and Tony Bennett broke through to the Final Four. Purdue was not supposed to make noise this year, but Carsen Edwards carried a young team to a Big Ten championship and nearly a trip to Minneapolis for the Final Four. His predecessor Gene Keady was the same way, being bounced in the Sweet 16 three times and the Elite 8 twice. Edwards recently declared for the NBA Draft, so it will be interesting if he can work the same magic next season. It will be interesting to see if Painter (and Purdue) will finally be able to get over the hump, as the Boilermakers haven’t made the Final Four since 1980.

2. Chris Mack, Louisville (235-111, nine NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, one Elite 8)

Mack was the lead man for Xavier for nine seasons before heading to Louisville and leading the Cardinals back to the NCAA Tournament, where it lost to Minnesota. He has will have the facilities and resources to help get the Cardinals back to the Final Four. The 49-year-old Mack led the Musketeers to the second weekend of the Big Dance four times during his nine-year career at his alma mater. But in his best year, in 2018 when his team went 29-6 and earned a No. 1 seed, they couldn’t make it past the opening weekend. Go figure. He won more than 20 games in every season but one and has had at least 24 wins five seasons. Nothing against Xavier, but it is just a matter of time before Mack reaches the Final Four with Louisville, and heading to the Cardinals was great for his career.

1. Sean Miller, Arizona (384-136, 11 NCAA Tournament appearances, three Sweet 16s, four Elite 8s)

Miller missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since his first year at Arizona. Quite the drop-off after 25+ wins in seven of the eight previous seasons. With Tony Bennett making this year’s championship, Miller is the clear-cut choice for No. 1. Arizona had a golden opportunity last season, as the Wildcats rolled through the Pac 12 Tournament, winning all three games by double digits. They had perhaps the best player in college basketball in Deandre Ayton, who was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018. The fourth-seeded Wildcats then fell on their face, getting crushed by the Buffalo Bulls by 21. That could have been the team to break the drought for Miller, especially with the Nos. 1, 2 and 3 seeds all losing before the Sweet 16. It does not help that two of the best teams Miller has had ran into Frank Kaminsky in the Elite 8. His teams had won the conference four of the last five seasons prior to this year’s season, and has hit at least 30 wins in three of those years. At some point, though, Miller will break through, you’d think. It is a mystery how he has yet to reach the Final Four. I know I have been saying this for awhile, but it is just a matter of time for him.

Packers offseason preview

Following two consecutive losing seasons, the Green Bay Packers have a big offseason upcoming. Gone is long-time head coach Mike McCarthy, who was replaced by Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur. Packers President and CEO Mark Murphy is now officially on the clock, as he has fired the coach and GM the last two seasons. Green Bay has a number of holes, no question, but the team isn’t that far away. If it weren’t for a Ty Montgomery kickoff return fumble or an Aaron Jones fumble deep in New England territory, Green Bay may have won on the road against both Super Bowl participants. That would be proceeded by gut-punching one possession road losses to Seattle and Minnesota. Out of the first six road games, the Packers won none of them, but very easily could have won each of them outside of the loss to Washington in week three. If Mason Crosby didn’t miss five kicks at Detroit, Green Bay wins. I don’t put too much stock in the losses at Chicago, vs. Arizona and vs. Detroit. That Packers team was a shell of its former self after losing four consecutive tough road games that essentially knocked them out of the playoffs. So, my point is, Green Bay is not far off. One strong offseason and the Packers once again could make a strong push at the Lombardi Trophy. It helps having around $41 million in cap room, two first round picks and six selections in the first four rounds.

Free agency

Going into free agency, I would say the top five needs are pass rusher, safety, tight end, wide receiver and right tackle. That is if we let Randall Cobb and Clay Matthews go. I believe Green Bay’s top priority this offseason should be to bring back cornerback Bashaud Breeland. Even without a full offseason after dealing with injury, he jumped in and was solid for the Packers. The 27-year-old had two picks last season, including one for a touchdown against Atlanta. Breeland, Jaire Alexander and Kevin King could be a really nice cornerback trio for the Green and Gold. I would not be against bringing back defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson either, even after he suffered a season-ending injury in Washington this season.

I believe it would be wise to not only draft a pass rusher and a tight end, but sign one as well. Of course that means Jimmy Graham would have to get cut, which seems possible, if not probable. In free agency, former Packers tight end Jared Cook should be the top target. He already has some chemistry with Aaron Rodgers after playing with him for a season. Cook would be a great target, especially following his Pro Bowl season with the dumpster fire known as the Oakland Raiders. I am sure he would love to play with 12 again, and I believe he wanted to come back before Green Bay signed Martellus Bennett. If they can sign him with the money saved by cutting Graham, Brian Gutekunst needs to jump at that opportunity.

I know he is public enemy No. 1 in Green Bay after breaking Mr. Rodgers’ collarbone in 2017, but Anthony Barr should be a top target this offseason. Like Nick Perry with Green Bay, who I think is more of a 4-3 defensive end, I believe Barr was playing out of position with Minnesota and is better suited as a 3-4 edge rusher. That is a major reason why he only has 13.5 sacks in his five seasons so far. With Minnesota only having around $10 million in cap space entering 2019, it is highly unlikely Barr is back in Minneapolis. One more to look at if he hits free agency is Dee Ford. One big reason for that is the Packers just hired his position coach with the Chiefs, Mike Smith. Another position is safety. Earl Thomas seems to want to go back to Texas and play for the Cowboys. Adrian Amos likely will be back in Chicago. Landon Collins would be a great addition. He is a terrific, young, play making safety. Green Bay needs better tackling out of the secondary and Collins would help that immensely. Lamarcus Joyner and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (very doubtful) are out there as well.

Draft

For the first time this millennium, the Packers will enter the draft with multiple first round picks. Like I mentioned above, I would love for the Packers to take a tight end and pass rusher early. Fortunately, this draft is stacked at pass rusher and there are three really good tight ends in the class. It would make sense to take a tight end in the first. Trading down from 12 to around 20 and picking up an extra second is not out of the equation either, and draft players like Louisana Tech’s Jaylon Ferguson or Mississippi State’s Montez Sweat at pass rusher and one of the Iowa tight ends T.J. Hockenson or Noah Fant or Alabama’s Irv Smith, Jr. And then have a pair of seconds. But as we sit, Green Bay has picks 12 and 30 in the first round and six picks in the first four rounds due to the trade last year during the NFL Draft to acquire New Orleans’ first this year and a fourth from Washington for Clinton-Dix.

Right tackle should be addressed, as should guard. I am not one of those people pounding on the table for a guard on the first two days, but it can be upgraded. They have been able to find gems at guard in the fourth round before, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again. Right tackle, on the other hand, should be addressed in the first two days. Last year, I was convinced Bryan Bulaga would be cut after this year. Now, I am not so sure. He had a really nice year, so I think it would be wise to keep him for another year. However, he is a free agent after the 2019 season, and one of the Packers philosophies is to look down the road at who might be gone in a year. Preparing someone to replace Bulaga a year down the road would be a wise decision.

Wide receiver is a position that either could be signed or drafted. I have a hard time believing 18 will be back. He will be 29 by the time the season rolls around, so he has some good years left in him, but I have a hard time seeing him back here. In free agency, Cole Beasley has indicated he would not mind coming to Green Bay. DeSean Jackson is also a possibility, especially after saying he doesn’t want to go back to Tampa Bay. Green Bay needs a slot guy to replace 18, and those two would fit the bill. A couple guys in the draft I like are Hollywood Brown from Oklahoma and Parris Campbell from Ohio State. Robinson is more of a big-play threat, but Campbell is a reliable slot receiver, and could be hard in the second round. If they were to trade down from 12 and gather an extra second, Campbell would be a great get.

As always, I love to talk Packers, so if you want to debate or have a question, you can ask me on Twitter at @jzenk42 or simply respond here. Go Pack Go!

Miami/Wisconsin recap

It was a disappointing season for the Wisconsin Badgers, but they put together their best defensive effort of the season, dominating the Miami Hurricanes 35-3, Thursday in the Pinstripe Bowl. With the win, the Badgers became the first Big Ten team ever to win five straight bowl games. And it isn’t like Wisconsin is beating poor programs. Outside of Western Michigan, Wisconsin won twice against Miami and once each against Auburn and USC in that span. Star running back Jonathan Taylor ran for 205 yards on 27 carries against a defense that only allowed 127 yards on the ground per game. Wisconsin’s offensive line had its best game of the year, paving the way for the Badgers to run for 333 yards. Jack Coan, starting for the injured Alex Hornibrook, only completed six passes in the game, but completed a huge pass to Kendric Pryor for 35 yards for a touchdown on the opening drive to set the tone for the game. With the win, Wisconsin finished 8-5, its 10th consecutive season with at least eight victories. It was also the second consecutive bowl victory over Miami, following a 34-24 win in the Orange Bowl last season. In the last nine games, Wisconsin alternated wins and losses. The 35 points are the most number of points scored in a bowl game since the 2012 Rose Bowl (38), and the most number in a bowl victory since the 1999 Rose Bowl (38).

The Badgers outgained the Hurricanes 406-169, and Wisconsin really had a chance to win by more, but Rafael Gaglianone missed a pair of field goals in the first half. Bucky’s defense only allowed six first downs and of the 169 yards by Miami, 62 came on one play. The Badgers snatched Miami’s turnover chain and forced five Hurricanes turnovers and Wisconsin had a 2-to-1 edge in time of possession. This was the biggest margin of victory in Badgers bowl history. The game started out well for Wisconsin, as Coan led the Badgers down the field and he tossed a 35-yard touchdown to Pryor. That was followed by Eric Burrell picking off Malik Rosier on Miami’s first play, which set up Taylor’s touchdown. The game turned midway through the third. After a long punt return by DeeJay Dallas, Miami had a chance to cut it to 14-10, but T.J. Edwards picked off Rosier. After that, it was all Badgers. It was a disappointing season, especially after losing the axe in the regular season finale to Minnesota, but it ended on a major high note.

There were only highs in this one, and it starts with No. 23. Taylor ran for 205 yards and Wisconsin ran for 333 yards as a team. The Hurricanes only allowed 3.3 yards per carry going in, and they were only allowing 127 yards per game on the ground. Even without star defensive lineman Gerald Willis, Miami still had great defenders everywhere. Wisconsin shoved it down their throats, early and often. On the opening possession, Taylor ran it the first four plays, and gained 28 yards. His 2,194 yards is the second most rushing yards in a single season in Wisconsin history, only trailing Melvin Gordon’s 2,587 in 2014. Amazingly, he now has 4,171 total rushing yards in his first two years, which is already fifth in school history. He is just 2,235 yards shy of Donnel Pumphrey’s “record.” He just finished his sophomore season. His two year total is the third most in NCAA history in a two-year span. Taylor tied Brent Moss for the 10th most rushing touchdowns in a season with 16. He is remarkable.

Wisconsin’s offensive line took the challenge of playing a terrific Miami front and dominated the matchup....even without possible first round pick David Edwards. Wisconsin guards Beau Benzschawel and Michael Deiter left with a bang. Edwards and center Tyler Biadasz also may leave, but will take time to decide. It was nice to see Taiwan Deal and even Chris James get in the game and play well, each averaging five yards per carry. It was physical domination from the opening drive. Kudos to the offensive line.

It was easily the best performance by the defense this season. The three points allowed was the fewest allowed since surrendering three against Western Kentucky in the season opener. It was the fewest points allowed against a major conference opponent since shutting out Minnesota in the regular season finale last season. Freshman nose tackle Bryson Williams, playing for the injured Olive Sagapolu, is becoming a real good nose tackle. He will be starting alongside Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk next year in what should be a much-improved defensive line.

The linebackers were all over the place. Senior T.J. Edwards led the Badgers with nine tackles, with one tackle for loss and his 10th career interception, which ties him with David Greenwood for seventh in school history. He also recovered a fumble. Fellow senior Andrew Van Ginkel had eight tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble. Junior Chris Orr, playing in place of the injured Ryan Connelly, had eight tackles, a tackle for loss and an interception. The front seven also helped stymie a really good Miami ground attack. Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas, who combined to rush for 1,578 yards and 10 touchdowns and averaging 6.1 yards per carry, were held to a combined 24 yards on 14 carries. The team stats don’t look that bad, rushing for 121 yards on 23 carries, but 90 of them were by quarterback Malik Rosier, including a 62-yard scamper. Outside of that 62-yarder, Miami was held to 59 yards on 22 carries, less than three yards per carry. Sensational performance by the front seven.

Miami does not exactly have Aaron Rodgers under center, but the secondary played well also. Playing without senior safety D’Cota Dixon, the secondary picked off two passes and held Miami to 48 yards passing on six completions. They set the tone on the first offensive snap for the Hurricanes, as safety Eric Burrell picked off a Rosier pass and returned it inside the 10, which set up the second Badgers touchdown. Cornerback Caesar Williams picked off a pass late that set up the knockout touchdown.

Finally, hats off to the seniors. With the exception of kicker Rafael Gaglianone, the senior class had a great send-off Thursday night. Gaglianone did tie Ron Dayne for second most points scored in school history. I mentioned both senior running backs (Deal and James) averaging more than five yards per carry, combining for 78 yards on 15 carries. I mentioned the great play of the linemen and linebackers, who also went out with a bang. Fullback Alec Ingold ran five times for 11 yards and scored a touchdown for the Badgers.

This was a much-needed performance after an underwhelming season. Wisconsin will be one of the leaders for the Big Ten West once again. This is a nice boost going into 2019. The Badgers will likely have a quarterback competition, and it will be interesting to see the improvement among the defenders and who Wisconsin will lose to the NFL. Onto 2019...

Packers Mock Draft 12.27

We have reached the final week of the regular season, and with the Green Bay Packers at 6-8-1, they have been eliminated from playoff contention and all they have to look forward to is the draft. The Packers have 10 draft picks, as of now, and plenty of cap space. Green Bay should be right back into the thick of things next season. It will be interesting to see what the Packers do in free agency.

1a. Noah Fant, TE, Iowa (previous: Josh Allen)

As much as I would like Josh Allen to fall to Green Bay, I have a hard time seeing him falling outside the top 10, and Green Bay is slated to pick in the middle of the first round at the moment. The Packers need to draft a tight end of the future this year, and Fant is an outstanding prospect. Jimmy Graham is 32, and last three seasons, Green Bay has signed who many thought was the best tight end in free agency: Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett and Graham. It is about time Green Bay drafted one to be a target for Aaron Rodgers moving forward. It can’t be easy on No. 12 when he has a different tight end every year. Noah Fant could be that guy. He is a good receiving tight end, catching 39 passes for 519 yards and a team-high seven touchdowns. In 2017, Fant led the Big Ten with 11 touchdown grabs. His size and athleticism are outstanding and he is a solid blocker. Green Bay sure does love drafting Iowa guys as well, having drafted Josh Jackson, Micah Hyde, Mike Daniels, Bryan Bulaga, among others in recent years.

1b. Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, Louisiana Tech (previous: Fant)

Amazingly, Green Bay is sixth in the league in sacks with 43. Mike Pettine has done a tremendous job manufacturing pressure from what he has on the defense, but think what he could do with a premier pass rusher. In Ferguson's bowl game, he broke Terrell Suggs’ record for most sacks in a career, with 45 sacks, including 17 this season. Ferguson also had 26 tackles for loss this season and 67.5 in his Louisiana Tech career. The Packers have waited far too long to draft an edge rusher high, and they need to take one with one of their two first round picks. Clay Matthews was actually solid this year, but his days are gone as an elite pass rusher and he is a free agent following this season. Matthews would actually be better off moving to inside linebacker if retained. Nick Perry only played in nine games, and was ineffective even when on the field. Other than his game-sealing sack and forced fumble against Chicago week one, he was missing in action. Brian Gutekunst needs to rebuild the linebacking core, and this is a good start.

2. Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma (previous: Ferguson)

While Bryan Bulaga has played extremely well this season, he may be cut at the end of this season due to his tendency to get hurt. He has played 13 games so far this year, and could return for one more season until his contract ends at the conclusion of next season. Regardless if he is brought back for one more season or is cut this offseason, the team will need a tackle to replace him long-term. The Oklahoma product had an outstanding season in 2017 at right tackle and has followed that up with a nice 2018 season at left tackle. He has the length and athleticism to be a great offensive tackle. He could start day one or wait a year and fill in after Bulaga moves on.

3. Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State (previous: Isaiah Prince)

Randall Cobb could be on his way out, which would mean the Packers would need a new wide receiver to work in the slot. In this mock, Aaron Rodgers would be excited about the first two days, gaining two more weapons at his disposal. Last year, they drafted big and fast receivers, Equanimeous St. Brown, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and J’Mon Moore. St. Brown and Valdes-Scantling and have played well as rookies and I think will make a big jump in their second year. Geronimo Allison will also return. Campbell dominated in the slot in 2017, averaging 11.4 yards per slot target, which was fifth in the country. He caught 79 passes for nearly 1,000 yards this year and 11 touchdowns. Against rival Michigan, he hauled in six passes for a whopping 192 yards and a touchdown in the blowout victory.

4a. Kenny Willekes, EDGE, Michigan State (previous: Jon’Vea Johnson)

With Matthews a free agent, Perry unable to stay healthy and most other pass rushers ineffective, it would be wise to use multiple picks on pass rushers. After using a first on Ferguson, Brian Gutekunst takes the Michigan State pass rusher in the fourth. The former walk-on has followed up a solid sophomore season with a tremendous junior season in which he led the Big Ten (seventh nationally) in tackles for loss with 20 and his nine sacks tied for fifth in the conference. For his efforts, Willekes was named the Smith-Brown Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year. Being just a redshirt junior, it is unclear if he will declare after Michigan State battles Oregon in the Redbox Bowl. He has a tremendous motor, and would be a great pick in the middle of the fourth round.

4b. Chris Johnson, S, North Alabama (previous: N/A)

The Packers need an overhaul at safety, especially after trading Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to Washington this season. Kentrell Brice has struggled, and I doubt Tramon Williams is back in 2019. I have no doubt the Packers will sign at least one starting safety in free agency, and possibly two. Even if they were to sign two, Green Bay could use depth, especially after what happened this season. This season, Johnson registered 47 tackles to go along with three break-ups and two interceptions.

5. Alex Bars, OT/OG, Notre Dame (previous: Corbin Kaufusi)

Green Bay’s guards have not had as good of a year as many Packers fans have hoped. In the mid-rounds, count on the Packers to take an offensive lineman. Cole Madison has not played one snap for the team and may not ever play for the Packers. Bars may help make up for that. He played great against Michigan, but then in late September was lost for the season with a torn ACL and MCL. That could knock him down a bit, but he hopefully will be good by camp next summer. Bars would be a great pick if that is who they select at this spot.

6a. David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State (previous: Karan Higdon)

Green Bay traded Ty Montgomery after his fumble on the kickoff return that may have cost the Packers a win in Los Angeles. After Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, the Packers will have an open competition for the final running back spot. After a really nice sophomore campaign, he followed that up with an even better junior season. While not having as many yards as he did in 2017, he ran the ball fewer times and still had nearly 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns on 4.7 yards per carry. He has also caught 67 passes in his Iowa State career. Montgomery is only a junior, so he will likely return to school, though.

6b. Cole Tracy, K, LSU (previous: Kaden Smith)

Mason Crosby has been a great kicker for the Packers for 12 seasons, but we are at a point in time where he is being paid too much to be as inconsistent as he has been this season. This year, he is 30-for-37 (81 percent), but missed some makeable kicks, including four field goals against Detroit and the potential game-tying field goal against Arizona. The 81 percent is actually better than his career average, and he actually has made his last eight attempts, but he will 35 by the time next regular season begins and he will get paid nearly $5 million in 2019 if kept. Cutting him would save the organization $3.6 million. Tracy came to LSU from Division II Assumption College, where he was 27-of-29 as a junior. With the Tigers, he has gone 25-of-29 with three of his four misses coming from 50 and beyond.

7. Jazz Ferguson, WR, Northwestern State (previous: Calvin Throckmorton)

I have to homer it up here. I had him taking his brother with their second first round pick, so why not take the other Ferguson brother here? Ferguson is a big body like they drafted last year. If he can run in the 4.4s, he will go higher. After leaving LSU, the former 4* wide receiver went to Northwestern State. All he did there was shatter the school record for single-season receiving yards (1,117) and receiving touchdowns (13), not to mention finishing second in receptions (66). Having more weapons come in and compete the better. He’d likely fight with J’Mon Moore and perhaps Jake Kumerow for a roster spot.

Pinstripe Bowl Preview: Miami vs. Wisconsin

After limping their way to a 7-5 regular season, the Wisconsin Badgers will play a familiar foe in the Pinstripe Bowl: the Miami Hurricanes. It will be played at legendary Yankee Stadium on Thursday at 4:15 CST on ESPN. In case you have forgotten, the same two teams met last year during bowl season in a slightly more prestigious bowl game, as the Badgers went to Hard Rock Stadium and defeated the Hurricanes 34-24 in the Orange Bowl. This year, you could call it the ‘Disappointment Bowl,’ as the two teams started the year with great aspirations, only to each go 7-5. The teams started the year in the top 10, but went downhill after that.

Wisconsin started the year with two convincing wins over overmatched competition, Western Kentucky and New Mexico, before being upset by BYU 24-21. That was the start of not only a bad season for Wisconsin, but a poor one for kicker Rafael Gaglianone as well, as he missed a potential game-tying field goal in the closing seconds. Wisconsin found its footing with two straight wins, including a huge win at Iowa when Alex Hornibrook found A.J. Taylor over the middle for 17 yards with less than a minute to play. But the Badgers would alternate wins and losses the remainder of the season, including losing the axe for the first time since 2003 with a 37-15 loss to Minnesota. The Badgers were devastated by injuries/suspensions to key players, including their quarterback, No. 1 wide receiver, entire secondary and 2/3 of their defensive line. We never saw what the team was capable of after the losses before the season of starting defensive end Garrett Rand (out for season), No. 1 wide receiver Quintez Cephus (suspension, sexual assault trial) and Isaiahh Loudermilk (missed part of season, was never fully healthy). That does not even count the transfers of defensive backs Dontye Carriere-Williams and Patrick Johnson. During the season, Hornibrook, nose tackle Olive Sagapolu, outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, right tackle David Edwards and the entire opening night secondary missed at least a portion of the season. Against Miami, Sagapolu, Rand and Cephus are all out, as well as inside linebacker Ryan Connelly.

As for the Hurricanes, ‘the U’ started out with a blowout loss to LSU, but would rebound with five straight victories. That would be proceeded by four straight losses mid-season and Miami’s dreams of a second straight New Year’s 6 bowl appearances were dashed. But the Canes would end the season with two straight victories, including a dominant 24-3 win over ACC Coastal Division champion Pittsburgh.

This is the sixth meeting between the two schools, including the third in bowl season. Wisconsin has won three of the previous five matchups, including the last two, in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl and last year’s Orange Bowl. Overall in postseason play, the Badgers have won their last four, including a pair of wins in New Year’s 6 bowls. Miami, on the other hand, has lost seven of its last eight bowls, with the only win coming in the Russell Athletic Bowl against West Virginia in 2016.

When Wisconsin runs...

Wisconsin is led by the Doak Walker Award winner Jonathan Taylor, who leads the nation in rushing with 1,989 yards on the ground. The last time we saw Taylor play, he had a solid, but a disappointing effort for him, as he ran for just 120 yards on 19 carries in the loss to Minnesota. But the week before that, he ran for 321 yards in a come-from-behind triple overtime win at Purdue. With 11 yards against Miami, he will become the third Badgers running back (fourth season) to reach the 2,000 yard mark. Taylor averages nearly 166 yards on the ground per game, and with 118, he would tie Ron Dayne’s 2,109 yards in his freshman year for the second most rushing yards in a season in Wisconsin history. Melvin Gordon’s program-record mark of 2,587 is out of reach, but second place would be a huge honor for No. 23. He is one shy of tying Brent Moss for the 10th most rushing touchdowns in a season in school history. Amazingly, Taylor is just 34 yards away from 4,000 in his career already, which is sixth in school history. I don’t expect him to stick around for all four years, but if he were to, he would shatter the NCAA record for most all-time career rushing yards.

Taylor is 49 yards away from James White for fifth in school history. and barring injury, he will cruise into second place next season. Enjoy him while he lasts. In last year’s game, he ran for 130 yards on 26 carries. As a team, Wisconsin averages 268.4 rushing yards per game, which is seventh nationally, and only behind Memphis and UCF in terms of teams that don’t run the triple option. The 6.3 yards per carry ranks fourth, only behind Clemson, Oklahoma and Memphis, and two of those teams made the College Football Playoff.

Defensively, Miami ranks 24th in the country, allowing 127.5 yards on the ground per game. The Hurricanes are the third best rush defense the Badgers have faced this year, after Iowa (8th) and Michigan (17th). In the two games against those two teams, Wisconsin ran for an average of 196.5 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry. In wins this year, Miami has allowed just 632 yards and 2.5 yards per carry. In losses, the Canes defense allowed 898 yards and 4.1 yards per carry. One key may be getting to 120 yards on the ground. When giving up more than that mark, Miami is 1-5, but is 6-0 when allowing fewer than 120 rushing yards. The task became a bit more difficult with All-America defensive tackle Gerald Willis out with a hand injury. Without him, the Canes could have a tough time stopping the Taylor Express. Miami leads the country in tackles for loss per game with 10.5. Willis had 18 tackles for loss, which was top 15 in the country. Fellow defensive lineman Jonathan Garvin was not too far behind with 16. Four players on the Canes have at least 13 tackles for loss. The Badgers will have their hands full with the other three, but I believe Wisconsin will neutralize them and allow Taylor to have a nice game.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Many thought Hornibrook would carry the strong play from last year’s Orange Bowl into the 2018 season, but that hasn’t happened. In last year’s bowl meeting, the quarterback had arguably the strongest performance of his career, going 23-of-34 for 258 yards and a career-high four touchdowns in earning Orange Bowl MVP, leading the Badgers to the 10-point win. But it has been all downhill since for the junior quarterback. He has missed three and a half games with concussions, and after coming back to start in the regular season finale against Minnesota, he was not good. He threw for 189 yards with two touchdowns and three costly interceptions.

It remains to be seen if he’ll get a chance to break Bevell’s record since his poor play this year has made it likely that Paul Chryst will have a quarterback competition in 2019 between Hornibrook, Jack Coan, Chase Wolf and incoming freshman Graham Mertz. But days ago, it was announced that Coan would burn his redshirt and will be playing his fifth game (fourth start). The sophomore has completed 61 percent of his passes this season for 442 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. He is 1-2 as the starter, with his only win coming in the triple-overtime thriller at Purdue. In that game, Coan threw two late touchdowns to force overtime. This season, he has not thrown for more than 160 yards in a game. He does have some solid receivers at his disposal, led by wide receiver A.J. Taylor, who caught 30 passes for 508 yards and three touchdowns. Mr. Reliable Jake Ferguson caught 34 passes for 441 yards and four touchdowns. Danny Davis, who is coming off a 10-catch performance against Minnesota, led the team with 40 catches, despite missing the first two games of the season. Five players caught at least 20 passes for the Badgers this season. A.J. Taylor had a big game in last year’s meeting with eight catches for 105 yards and a tremendous one-handed touchdown grab, while Davis had three touchdown catches.

Eight players have at least one interception for Miami, with three having three picks. Last year, Sheldrick Redwine was victimized quite a bit in the Orange Bowl, but he had three interceptions this year. Trajan Bandy has had a tremendous year for the Hurricanes. While in coverage, he has only allowed 45 percent of passes to be caught and just a 58.8 passer rating against him. His PFF rating of 88 is ranked 13th in the country for cornerbacks. Eleven Miami players have at least a half a sack this year, led by Joe Jackson’s 8.5. Their 37 sacks ranks 11th in the country. Overall in pass defense, they are No. 1 in fewest passing yards allowed per game and No. 3 in opponent’s quarterback rating. Miami has only allowed 10 touchdown passes and has picked off 15 passes. Coan will need to take care of the ball and make clutch throws to keep the chains moving. It will also be interesting to see how the Canes respond to the loss of defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who took the head job at Temple earlier this month. He will coach in the game, but who knows if he will be all-in for it.

Edge: Miami

When Miami runs...

Miami has a two-headed monster at running back with Travis Homer and Deejay Dallas. Both running backs have at least 100 carries with both also averaging at least 5.8 yards per rush. They have combined to rush for 1,578 yards and 10 touchdowns and average 6.1 yards per carry. Both also have big play ability, as each have a touchdown of at least 70 yards. Wisconsin has not been good at stopping the run this year, so they will have their hands full with this rushing attack, especially without linebacker Ryan Connelly, who was a semifinalist for the Butkus Award. Quarterback N'Kosi Perry is also a runner, having rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown on the season.

The Badgers will once again be without starting defensive linemen Garrett Rand and Olive Sagapolu, along with Connelly. The rush defense has improved as the season has gone along, but it is still not great. They give up 158 yards on the ground per game, but is 72nd in the country in rush yards allowed per carry at 4.4. They were near the 100s in both categories a few months ago, but they still have a long ways to go. The defensive line and T.J. Edwards will need to play great in order to contain Homer and Dallas. This will be a defense similar to what we will see next year, as only three of the defensive starters will be seniors since Sagapolu and Connelly will be out.

Edge: Miami

When Miami passes...

Freshman N’Kosi Perry appears to have wrestled the starting job away from senior Malik Rosier. At the beginning of the season, the two played a similar number of snaps, but it seems as though Perry is the guy heading into the bowl game. Although, Perry did struggle in the win against Pittsburgh, completing 6 of 24 passes for 52 yards. Even with Perry, quarterback is a sore spot for the Hurricanes. Perry's quarterback rating of 118.5 ranks 104th. Miami’s quarterback has completed 51.6 percent of his passes this season, but has thrown as many touchdowns as Wisconsin’s signal caller without as many mistakes. His yards per attempt is even worse at 5.9, which ranks 116th. Leading receiver Jeff Thomas was dismissed from the Miami football team last month. He had 563 yards receiving and three touchdowns, and had one catch for 48 yards in the meeting last season. In the season-opening loss to LSU, Thomas had five grabs for 132 yards. Next up for Miami is junior Lawrence Cager, who caught 20 passes for 352 yards and a team-high six scores. although he does not have one since Oct. 6. He also has not had more than one catch in a game since Oct. 13. Last year, he had career-highs in catches (4) and receiving yards (76) against the Badgers. The security blanket is freshman tight end Brevin Jordan, who has 30 catches for 275 yards.

Defensively, Wisconsin has struggled. This unit is a far cry from what the Hurricanes had to face last season. Gone are the starting cornerbacks, starting defensive ends and starting outside linebackers. We knew it would be a bit of a rebuild on that side of the ball, but the unit has struggled more than people thought it would going in. The already young unit has been depleated with injury and departures this season. I already mentioned the transfers of Carriere-Williams and Johnson, but every starting defensive back from opening night has missed at least one game with each starting safety missing at least three. Freshman Rachad Wildgoose was pressed into duty, and has been inconsistent, like you might expect for a true freshman. The secondary has only picked off 10 passes on the season, and none in the final three games. What probably contributed to the lack of interceptions is that Wisconsin has only sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times, which is good enough for 112th in the nation. Part of that is Andrew Van Ginkel playing banged up, but should be good to go for the bowl game, but Jim Leonhard has had a hard time generating pressure. Miami’s offensive line has allowed 26 sacks, which is middle of the pack in the country. This is an interesting matchup. This is valuable experience for a young secondary, which has three freshmen and one sophomore among their top five defensive backs.

Edge: Push

Special Teams

The special teams have not been so special to the Badgers this year. Even the usually reliable Rafael Gaglianone has struggled mightily this year, going 10 of 15 on the year, which matches his worst year by field goal percentage in his career. This is coming off a fantastic year in 2017, in which he made 16 of his 18 attempts. What is even more surprising is that he is having a down year despite only attempting three field goals from beyond 40 yards. His long this season is only 42. For Miami, Michael Badgley has moved on to the Los Angeles Chargers, so freshman Bubba Baxa has stepped in and done a decent job. After going 1-of-2 against LSU in the opener, he has made seven of his last nine, but is just 1-of-3 from 40+ on the season. Per usual, Wisconsin’s punting game is a disaster, ranking near the bottom of the conference. Zach Feagles in back at punter for Miami, and he is decent, better than Wisconsin’s punters at least. Miami has a better return game as well. Dallas returned a punt for a touchdown last game. Aron Cruickshank will eventually break one for Wisconsin as a kick returner, so it might as well be this game, right?

Edge: Miami

Overview

Miami has a great defense and a real good ground attack, but like many bowl games, who is more motivated to be there? Both of these teams started out the season ranked in the top 10, but they finished 7-5 and nowhere near the goals they set for themselves. In 2009, the teams met in the Champs Sports Bowl with the temperatures in the 40s. Miami did not look like it wanted any part of the cold weather. All people heard about was Miami’s speed before the game. As it turned out, the only time we saw that speed was when the Canes players were running to the heaters. The weather will favor the Badgers, and it could depend on if the Southern school wants any part of the 20 or 30-degree temps. It will be a slugfest, but I think there will be too much Jonathan Taylor, as he runs for 150 and multiple scores and the Badgers beat the Canes for the second year in a row.

Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Miami 20

Minnesota/Wisconsin preview

Wisconsin is coming off one of its most exciting games of the Paul Chryst era, coming back from a late 14-point deficit to force overtime and winning it in three overtimes 47-44 at Purdue. Not too long ago, the Boilermakers crushed Ohio State at that stadium by 29, so that is a nice win. Like Purdue, Minnesota is fighting for bowl eligibility when the Gophers come to Madison this weekend in the fight for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Last year, Wisconsin clobbered Minnesota 31-0 in Minneapolis to win the axe for the 14th consecutive time against their rivals from across the Mississippi. With the win, the Badgers took the lead in head-to-head for the first time in the rivalry’s history, 60-59-8. It will be the last home game for a number of seniors, including linebackers T.J. Edwards, Ryan Connelly and Andrew Van Ginkel, and safety D’Cota Dixon. On offense, Michael Deiter will be making his 53rd career start, which is a school record. The seniors have been a part of a great run that has won 41 games the past nearly four years.

Two weeks ago, Minnesota crushed Purdue 41-10 in Minneapolis, but lost 24-14 at home to Northwestern. In the last meeting at Camp Randall, Wisconsin fell behind at halftime 17-7, but forced Mitch Leidner to throw four interceptions and the Badgers outscored the Gophers 24-0 in the second half to emerge with the 31-17 win. The last two games in Madison, Wisconsin fell behind by double digits and outscored Minnesota a combined 45-7 in the second half. The Gophers have struggled mightily on the road this year, losing all four road games by an average of 23.5 points per game, including losing by a combined 49 to Illinois and Nebraska, which have a combined record of 8-14. P.J. Fleck is looking for his first signature win and his first bowl game as Minnesota’s head coach. Wisconsin has won 10 straight trophy games with the last loss coming to Iowa in the 2015 Big Ten opener.

When Wisconsin runs...

Sophomore Jonathan Taylor is coming off the best day of his career and one of the best in school history, running 33 times for 321 yards and three scores in last week’s triple-overtime victory at Purdue. With that big win, Taylor has extended the lead for most rushing yards in the nation with 1,869, which is now 348 more than second place, Darrell Henderson of Memphis. He is simply put, a monster. In less than two years, he is just 154 yards shy of 4,000 in his career. Amazingly, he is just 2,559 yards behind former San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey’s 6,405 yards. Yes, we all know Ron Dayne still has the all-time rushing record, but the NCAA record book has not changed it to allow Dayne’s bowl games to count yet. He is also just 3,279 away from Dayne’s all-time record. Unreal. I know he won’t stick around all four years, but if he did, he would shatter every rushing record. Taylor’s 1,869 yards are sixth in a single season in Wisconsin history and is just 240 behind Dayne’s 2,109 for second place. He is also one rushing touchdown away from making his way into the top 10 for rushing scores in a season. Overall, the Badgers are fourth in the country in rushing at 277.4 yards per game, and the three teams ranked above them run the triple option. The Badgers average of 6.3 yards per carry only trails Oklahoma, Clemson and Memphis. Backup running back Taiwan Deal was injured against Penn State on a long carry early in the second half and missed last week’s win at Purdue, and is questionable for the battle for the axe. Defensively, Minnesota is 74th in rush yards allowed per game with 170.7 and has given up 19 scores on the ground. However, the Gophers have allowed an average of a whopping 5.2 yards per carry, which ranks 116th out of the 130 FBS teams. Minnesota has done a much better job since firing defensive coordinator Robb Smith after being crushed by Illinois. Minnesota has not faced a rushing offense anywhere near Wisconsin’s level in those two games. The Gophers defense has been especially bad on the road, where they have given up an average of 45 points per game in their four road contests (all losses). In those games, the defense has allowed an AVERAGE of 305 (!!!!) yards on the ground, with three of the four gaining at least 315 yards and two of a least 380. This should be a game where Taylor rushes for 200 again. Minnesota’s defense is improved, but I don’t see them slowing down the Taylor Express.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Unfortunately, we still do not know the status of starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook. Backup Jack Coan finally played well in the fourth quarter against Purdue, leading the Badgers back from a 14-point deficit to force overtime. Hornibrook was in pads, throwing with Danny Davis this week, but that doesn’t mean he has been cleared. Ideally, the Badgers would like Hornibrook to play the entire final two games and be able to use this as a redshirt year for Coan. But he’ll start again if No. 12 cannot go. Amazingly, Hornibrook’s 45 touchdown passes is just two shy of third in school history (47 by John Stocco) and three behind second (48 by Joel Stave). He is also just 22 behind Scott Tolzien for No. 5 on the all-time passing list at Wisconsin. In his four games (or three and a half), Coan has thrown for 442 yards with four touchdowns and two picks (both against Penn State) and has not thrown for more than 160 yards in a game. He has multiple weapons who can beat you. Davis only had four catches for 36 yards last game, but had two huge touchdown grabs in the fourth quarter to tie it up, including a one-handed snag that was SportsCenter’s top play of the day. After catching just six passes for 52 yards in the prior five games, A.J. Taylor had five receptions for 89 yards. He leads the team in yards with 495. Three players have at least 29 receptions, and Davis leads the team with 30 despite missing the first two games. After slowly getting back into things, he has hauled in at least four catches in four of the past five games. Five receivers have at least 20 grabs, so the ball gets spread around. Minnesota comes in allowing 226.8 yards through the air per game, which is 64th, but its yards per attempt checks in at No. 49. For comparison, the Badgers rank 55th in that same category. In the last two games, against two good quarterbacks (Clayton Thorsen and David Blough), the Gophers allowed just 187.5 passing yards per game and just a single touchdown.

Edge: Minnesota

When Minnesota runs...

The Gophers have been hit with the injury bug this season, as both Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith are out for the season. Leading Goldy Gopher on the ground this season is Mohamed Ibrahim, a freshman from Maryland. Even with the top two backs out, Ibrahim has done terrific so far. Despite playing in just eight games, he has 815 yards rushing. In his last three games, he has rushed for an average of 117 yards and rushed for at least 98 in all three, and has scored three times.  In the three, against Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, he has averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. Overall, the Gophers have averaged 160 yards on the ground per game, which is 77th in the FBS. Part of the reason their yards per carry is only 4.1 is they have given up 26 sacks. Without sacks included, it is at 4.4. Another freshman, Bryce Williams, is the backup, as he has run for 450 yards and a pair of scores. While the Badgers run defense has improved, it is still not great. The unit has moved up to 53rd in rushing yards allowed and 77th in opponents yards per carry after being close to 100th for awhile this season. Last week, Wisconsin held Purdue to just 76 yards on the ground and 2.5 yards per carry. Freshman nose tackle Bryson Williams and defensive end Isaiahh Loudermilk, along with the Badgers terrific group of linebackers will need to slow down Ibrahim and force the young Minnesota quarterbacks to beat them.

Edge: Minnesota

When Minnesota passes...

The Gophers started the season with walk-on freshman Zack Annexstad, and he struggled, completing just 52 percent of his passes, including 49 percent in conference play. As a starter, he led the Gophers to a 3-4 record and 0-4 n Big Ten play. During the team’s 53-28 loss at Nebraska, he was replaced by fellow freshman Tanner Morgan. The latter has led the Gophers to two wins in his four games as a starter, including a 41-10 demolition of Purdue at TCF Bank Stadium. In those games, Minnesota has averaged 31 points per game. Granted, only one of those defenses rank above 72nd in points allowed per game (Northwestern, scored 14), but still is a step in the right direction for them. Last week against Northwestern, Morgan threw two interceptions and fumbled three times (losing one). There will be growing pains for the young quarterback, but he has one of the best receivers in the conference to throw the ball to, Tyler Johnson. The junior wide receiver, who missed last year’s game against Wisconsin with injury, leads the Big Ten and is 11th nationally in receiving yards with 1,036. Despite missing the final two games last year, Johnson had 677 yards receiving and seven scores. This year, he has only had one game in which he was held under 50 yards and had a string of four consecutive 100-yard games. Johnson has also caught 10 of his team’s 18 touchdown passes on the season. To put his 1,000-yard season in perspective, Wisconsin has only had four seasons with 1,000-yard receivers in its history, and two of those were by Lee Evans back in the early 2000s. The Badgers cornerbacks will need to bring their A-game in order to slow him down. In addition to Johnson, Minnesota has two more with at least 380 receiving yards. Freshman Rashod Bateman has more receptions and yards than any Badger, catching 47 passes for 648 yards and six touchdowns. He has had just 70 yards combined the last two weeks, but had nearly 300 in the two before that. Another freshman, Chris Autman-Bell, has also had a nice freshman season, catching 24 passes for 382 yards. After seemingly having made strides in pass defense, Wisconsin has fallen back the past few weeks. Last week, Purdue’s David Blough threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns. The downswing started when Rutgers’ Artur Sitkowski, who has been atrocious this season, threw for 261 yards and a touchdown. That was the second most passing yards he has thrown for this season, and only the third game in which he did not turn the ball over. Wisconsin will be able to get after the Minnesota quarterbacks, though, as the Gophers offensive line has allowed 26 sacks this season. including 22 in conference play. Andrew Van Ginkel, playing in his final game in Madison on Saturday, is finally back near full health after battling injuries much of the early part of the season. At Purdue, he had two sacks, and he has had 2.5 in his last two games. A healthy Van Ginkel makes the Badgers pass rush more potent.

Edge: Push

Special Teams

Wisconsin’s Rafael Gaglianone is having his worst year since 2015. He has made just 10-of-14 field goals. Last year, Minnesota’s kicker Emmit Carpenter missed both field goal attempts against Wisconsin. This year, he is having a decent year, making 12-of-16, including 2-of-2 from beyond 50. Jacob Herbers is a terrific punter for Minnesota, ranking second in the Big Ten in net punting at 41.2, while Wisconsin ranks last. Bucky has a slight edge in kick returning.

Edge: Minnesota

Overview

Wisconsin has won 14 straight over Minnesota, and I think it will move to 15. The Gophers are fighting for bowl eligibility, but the game is at Camp Randall. Minnesota is a young team, and the school hasn’t won in Madison in football since 1994. I believe we’ll see Jonathan Taylor early and often. I expect him to get to 200 yards on the ground once again. Wisconsin is 5-1 at home this season, while Minnesota is winless on the road. My money is on the Badgers. I could see Minnesota keeping it close for a bit, but Wisconsin pulling away in the fourth.

Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 20

Wisconsin/Purdue review

Just one word can be used to describe that win: wow. I apologize for not being able to write the preview. I was extremely busy this week and was unable to do it. But man, I would not have predicted a 47-44 triple overtime win. I admit, I did not think Bucky was going to pull this off. Without Alex Hornibrook and one of their best offensive linemen David Edwards, Jonathan Taylor put the team on his back, just like Greg Jennings. The sensational sophomore ran for a career-high 321 yards, which was the third best performance in school history, as well as three scores. Among those 321 yards was the game-winning 17-yard touchdown in overtime to win the longest game (in regulation time) in school history. With the win, the Badgers improve to 7-4 and 5-3 in conference play. Purdue falls to 5-5 with the loss, and 4-4 in Big Ten play. This win is also Wisconsin’s 13th straight win over the Boilermakers, and eighth straight in West Lafayette. The last loss in the series was a 26-23 Purdue win in Madison in 2003. The last Boilermakers win at Ross-Ade Stadium was in 1997. Bucky was down 27-13 with seven minutes to play, but scored two touchdowns on Jack Coan passes to Danny Davis and made two defensive stands to send the game into overtime. It was an incredible comeback and it gives the team some much-needed confidence as they head into their final game back at Camp Randall Stadium against their arch-rival Minnesota.

Jonathan. Taylor. Like always, I start out with the positives, and Taylor had one of the best games in Wisconsin history. He ran for a career-high 321 yards and three touchdowns, and the Badgers needed every last one of them. The 321 yards was the third most in school history, only trailing Ron Dayne’s 339 against Hawaii in 1996 and Melvin Gordon’s 408 against Nebraska in 2014. It is the most rushing yards in the FBS this season, and the third game of at least 300 rushing yards. In the first half, the sophomore ran for “just” 74 yards on 12 carries. After that, he carried the rock 21 times for 247 yards, an incredible 11.8-yard average. The big day moved him ahead of Billy Marek into seventh place in Wisconsin history with 3,846 yards. So, yes, he is just 154 yards shy of 4,000 in his career, which is just two years old. Barring injury, he will move into fifth place all-time in school history by the time the year is up, as he is just 169 yards behind James White. Taylor is now just 31 yards from 2,000 on the season. That is already sixth in school history for a single season. Gordon’s historic 2014 season is out of the question, but he is just 240 behind Ron Dayne’s 2,109 in 1996 for second place. I am running out of adjectives to describe the sophomore running back. He is just incredible. No. 23 started the second half with an 80-yard touchdown run to tie it up at 10-10. His 35-yard run also helped cap the fourth quarter comeback and tie it up at 27. What makes his day even that much more impressive was the fact that he was not stopped for a loss once. This was a performance for the ages.

A healthy Andrew Van Ginkel is a huge plus for the Badgers. He had 10 tackles on the game, with every single one being a solo stop. Not only did he have two sacks, he also made a huge play in the first half when he knocked the ball out of the hands of Purdue’s Isaac Zico and into the end zone for a touchback. T.J. Edwards also had 10 tackles, with nine of his being of the solo variety. Like Van Ginkel, Edwards also had two tackles for loss.

The run defense has improved drastically the past several weeks. D.J. Knox came in averaging 6.1 yards per carry and had nearly 800 yards on the ground this season, while Markell Jones averaged nearly five yards per tote. Knox ran for 128 in the upset of Ohio State last month. Against the Badgers, the duo combined for 21 carries for just 68 yards. As a team, Purdue ran the ball 31 times for 76 yards. Despite being 89th going into the game in rushing, the Boilermakers averaged 4.8 yards per carry. They don’t run it often, but are effective when doing it. Wisconsin had climbed to 64th in rushing yards allowed per game and 86th in yards per carry. That may not seem like much, but it is a vast improvement from a month ago. They made a few key run stops in the game to keep Wisconsin within striking distance. The first was a stop on third down to hold Purdue to a field goal late in the first half to keep it a one-score game. Wisconsin also made back-to-back stops on the 1 midway through the fourth when the score was 24-13. A touchdown would have likely sealed the game, but the defense came through with a pair of stops to keep it a two score game at 27-13.

The passing game was dormant for much of the day, but came through with some clutch plays to get the game to overtime. Jack Coan’s stat line is decent, but that is a significant improvement over his previous two starts. In the game, the sophomore signal caller was 16-of-24 for 160 yards and a pair of scores, and most importantly, no turnovers. In the final nine minutes of regulation and the overtimes, Coan was 7-for-7 for 70 yards and two touchdowns. He only threw one pass in the three overtimes combined, but it was enough to get the job done. Also, what great effort by Danny Davis on his two touchdown grabs. He only had four catches for 36 yards, but his two touchdown catches were tremendous, especially his one-handed grab to cut it 27-20. After a fast start to the season, A.J. Taylor had just six catches for 52 yards combined in his last five games, but came through today with five for 89 and four of his five grabs went for first downs. Coan’s really only blunder that stands out was his sack he took at the end of the first half. Instead of a 3rd-and-goal at the Purdue 2, it was third down at the 11 and Wisconsin had to settle for a field goal. It wasn’t a great performance by Coan, but it was an improvement and hopefully they won’t need him any more this season.

Finally, what resiliency by the Badgers. Most thought Wisconsin would not win this game without Hornibrook or David Edwards. And if you thought the Badgers would win the game after falling behind 27-13, you’re a liar. Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal tweeted “Hello, Pin Cushion Bowl” and one of the first responses was “How about the Toilet Bowl.” Both terrible attempts at humor, and somehow the Badgers got up off the mat and scored two late touchdowns to send the game into overtime. I mean, I don’t blame anyone for writing off the team with seven minutes to play. After scoring 10 points on their first two drives of the second half, the next two were both punts and the team gained a grand total of 18 yards on eight plays. This team was left for dead. Evan Flood of 247 Sports tweeted “Things I didn't think I'd be asking this season: Is the Badgers 14-year winning streak over Minnesota coming to an end next week?” What a difference an hour or so makes. The Badgers scored touchdowns on five of their final six drives (not counting the kneel down) and Wisconsin escaped with a monster comeback win it had no business even being in. The Badgers may be down, but they are certainly not out of it. That was a gritty win that will give them confidence moving forward into the final two games of the season.

There are two main negatives in this game. First, I will start out with the most frustrating: penalties. Wisconsin was penalized 13 times for 125 yards. Waaaaaaaaaaaay too many. And five of them were false starts. Too many, and the Badgers need to clean that up as they get ready for the Gophers. The 125 yards is the most Wisconsin has had this century. So, hopefully this was an anomaly, and the Badgers can play relatively penalty-free football the last few games. They came in averaging 5.4 penalties per game for 46.3 yards per game, so I’ll chalk it up to a bad game, but that was an uncharacteristic showing today.

The pass defense was not good Saturday. The secondary looked good for a few games in a row against solid quarterbacks, but ever since the Rutgers game in which Wisconsin’s secondary made Artur Sitkowski look competent, they have not looked sharp. David Blough is a very good quarterback, and was 16th in pass yards per game going into the matchup. He torched Wisconsin’s secondary for 386 yards and four touchdowns on 31-of-48 passing. The tackling was optional as the game went on too. I know Rondale Moore is a beast, but the effort to bring him down was not there for much of the day. The secondary is young, so hopefully their overall game improves. Rachad Wildgoose was on Moore much of the day and was picked on quite a bit. We’ll need better next week against Minnesota.

Overall, it was a great win. Yes, Purdue is only 5-5, but the Boilermakers beat Iowa and crushed Ohio State in their previous two home games. Man, 7-4 looks a lot better than 6-5. The Badgers have a chance to make it 8-4 next week when they return to Camp Randall to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the annual battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe.