Sunday, September 17, 2017

Wisconsin/BYU review

In what was the most complete performance of the young season, the Wisconsin Badgers blew out the BYU Cougars 40-6 in their first road test of the season. Many thought this would be a big test for the Badgers, including me, but Wisconsin dominated in all phases of the game. BYU has a solid defense, but Bucky ran roughshod over it. There were not many negatives from this game, and it was nice to see the Badgers have their best nonconference performance right before Big Ten play starts. Alex Hornibrook stole the show, completing 18-of-19 (a school record for completion percentage) passes for 256 yards and four touchdowns. I will talk about his performance more in a few moments, but he was spectacular. Jonathan Taylor was his usual self, rushing for 128 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown. while Bradrick Shaw returned to action with four carries for 19 yards.

Wisconsin also had young receivers make big plays. Freshman Danny Davis jump-started the offense with a 50-yard catch in the first quarter. Sophomore Quintez Cephus had a pair of touchdown catches and fellow sophomore A.J. Taylor added one as well. In a game where top targets Troy Fumagalli and Jazz Peavy combined for three catches for 62 yards, it was nice to see the young guys step up in a big way.

I touched on a few positives in the opening paragraphs, but I have to start with Hornibrook. He was flawless. I mentioned his stats earlier, but his one incompletion was a drop by Davis that was caught, but lost it after he was hit. On third down, he was a remarkable 8-of-8 for 114 yards and three touchdowns. He made up for his lackluster showing against Florida Atlantic. The sophomore will need to improve his consistency, though. If he can play anywhere close to this well for the rest of the season, Bucky will be in terrific shape. His 256 passing yards is a career-high and he has thrown for at least 200 yards in each of his first three games. Hornibrook only did that once last season. The sophomore’s 277.4 passer rating is second in school history, only to John Stocco’s 296.7 day against Indiana in a 52-17 win over Indiana in 2006. He was throwing behind receivers last week but he was on point against BYU. Some of his throws needed to be put in one spot and Hornibrook did just that. Just an amazing performance. Nothing more needs to be said.

In order for Hornibrook to have a great game, the offensive line needed to have a great day. And it did. Other than the one sack by the Cougars defense, Hornibrook barely was touched. If he can have protection and set his feet, he is as accurate as they come. The pass blocking was exceptional. The rushing attack was once again phenomenal. Wisconsin rushed for 235 yards and nearly five yards per carry. Taylor was terrific once again, averaging nearly seven yards per carry. Shaw was very solid as well, coming back after a week off. Kudos to the offensive line.

Lastly, I will say Wisconsin played terrific defense. I know BYU’s offense is terrible and had a backup quarterback playing, but the Badgers defense was very good once again. For a third consecutive game, the defense did not allow a single point in the second half. The Cougars had 192 yards as a team, and Bucky outgained them by nearly 300 yards. BYU had a 61-yard drive to open the game, but then were shut down the rest of the afternoon with the exception of a 50-yard pass from Beau Hoge to Micah Simon right before halftime. Wisconsin allowed some yards and a few points in the first half, but allowed just 25 total yards of offense in the second half. On the year, Bucky has allowed just 30 points. Wisconsin also forced a pair of turnovers and the offense converted those into 10 points. The road is about to get much tougher, but this is a nice start.

A few other shoutouts are in order as well. Punter Anthony Lotti was not needed much, but in the two times he punted, he came up big. In his two punts, Lotti averaged 46.5 yards per boot and both pinned BYU inside its own 20. Nicely done, Anthony. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel had four tackles on Saturday and came through with another sack. Lastly, BYU picked on freshman cornerback Dontye Carriere-Williams all day, so it was nice to see him make Hoge pay with a fourth quarter interception.

Lastly, there were a few things that can be improved, even in a blowout win like this. First off, the defense was tremendous again, but it still tends to allow big plays on occasion. With BYU on its own 25 with 25 seconds left in the first half, Simon beat Derrick Tindal for a 50-yard gain to set up the Cougars for a field goal to end the half. They have given up a few big plays early in the season, so Jim Leonhard and Co. will have to clean that up.

I know the running stats look very good and they are, but it seemed like the offensive line allowed quite a bit of penetration on running plays, especially early. Taylor and the other running backs masked that by breaking tackles in the backfield to pick up nice yardage, but that was worrisome. I know Jon Dietzen was out and BYU has a solid defensive line, but when running the ball, the line cannot allow penetration like that.

Also, once again the Badgers had a non-existent pass rush much of the day. Wisconsin officially had two sacks on the day, and both came in the second half. But they need to get consistent pass rush, and they have not been able to through three weeks. And it will only get tougher as they enter Big Ten play.

Now, the Badgers have a week off before the start of the Big Ten season, where the Badgers welcome the Northwestern Wildcats to Camp Randall Stadium. Defensive end Chikwe Obasih, who has missed the last two weeks, made the trip to Provo for the BYU game. Even though he did not play, I wonder if he will be ready for the Windy City Kitties in two weeks. The defensive line would get that much better.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Wisconsin/BYU preview


The Wisconsin Badgers, coming in at a perfect 2-0, will play on the road for the first time in 2017 against the BYU Cougars. Not only is this the first time Wisconsin will ever travel to Provo to play, but it is the first time a Big Ten team has ever traveled there for a game. Bucky is coming off an underwhelming 31-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, while BYU fell to 1-2 with a home loss to rival Utah. BYU has struggled mightily on offense the first three games, and it won’t get any easier on Saturday. Wisconsin has only allowed 12 points per game in its first two games, while BYU has just scored an average of 11 points per game. That average dips to 6.5 points per game in games against FBS teams. The task of beating the No. 10 Badgers became even more difficult for the Cougars after they announced quarterback Tanner Mangum is out for Saturday’s game after being hurt late in the game against Utah. The stats for BYU’s offense have been brutal so far, and this is not a game for them to get well in. There is a reason Wisconsin is favored by 17.5. It will be tough to cover since BYU’s defense is very solid and Wisconsin’s offense has not lit the world on fire, not to mention it is a road game.

When Wisconsin runs...

Bucky may have found his running back for the next three or four years. After an exciting week one performance by true freshman Jonathan Taylor against Utah State, he received the start against Florida Atlantic and did not disappoint. He rushed for 223 yards on 26 carries and had two breathtaking touchdown runs. BYU comes into the game with the 88th ranked rush defense in yards allowed per game, but allowed nearly 300 yards rushing to LSU, by far the best opponent the Cougars have faced. After rushing for 357 yards against the Owls, the Badgers have moved up to No. 13 in the country in rush yards per game, averaging just under 300 per game. Sophomore running back Bradrick Shaw missed last week and should get him back this week. Having him back in the fold will only make Taylor and Chris James more of a threat. I doubt Wisconsin will be able to run for 250-300 yards, but it would not shock me to see the Badgers rush for around 200. It will all depend on the threat of a pass. Bucky needs the good Alex Hornibrook to show up on Saturday.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Much of how well the Wisconsin offense plays is on the shoulders of Hornibrook, Bucky’s sophomore quarterback. Against Utah State, Hornibrook played really well. He had zip on his throws, and was incredibly accurate. Even most of the incompletions could (and probably should) have been caught. However, in last week’s game, the sophomore did a 180. He went back to his old habits of lofting passes to receivers and was as inaccurate as I have ever seen him. There were multiple passes that were open, but the quarterback missed. Even many of the completions were behind receivers or they could have been bigger plays. Hornibrook does have many weapons at his disposal, though. Troy Fumagalli is arguably the nation’s best tight end, while Jazz Peavy and Quintez Cephus are very solid receivers. BYU has been in the middle of the pack nationally in passing yards allowed per game. They have only allowed one passing touchdown in three games, though. However, they just have one pick in three games as well. The Cougars also have just three sacks in three games. If the Wisconsin offensive line can give Hornibrook time, he should be able to find receivers open. But the sophomore needs to be more consistent, and until he does that, teams will crowd the line of scrimmage, daring him to make plays down the field.

Edge: Push

When BYU runs...

BYU’s rushing attack has not been very good so far, to put it nicely. The Cougars rank 119th in the country in rush yards per game, averaging 76.3 per game. However, that does include a performance against LSU in which they rushed for negative-5 yards on 14 carries. In the two games against FBS teams the Cougars have rushed for just 58 yards on 38 carries. Their test won’t get much easier this week, as Wisconsin has allowed under 100 yards per game on the ground. The Badgers will be without Chikwe Obasih again this week, but Alec James is a very reliable backup. Since it is a matchup of a struggling rush offense against a stingy run defense, it is no contest as to which team has the edge.

Edge: Wisconsin

When BYU passes...

It is a bad sign when your rush offense is ranked 119th in the country and your pass offense is not much better. BYU is averaging just 155.3 pass yards per game and 136 per in games against FBS teams. Add into those stats that BYU will be starting a new quarterback this week, whomever that will be, and it is not a recipe for success. But who knows, maybe the new quarterback can provide a spark to a struggling offense, much like Hornibrook did a season ago for the Badgers and Joel Stave did in 2012. The Badgers are once again stingy through the air, allowing just 180.5 yards through the air per game, while picking off three passes in their two games and allowing one touchdown. That one score was off a blown coverage, which has happened a few times already this season. There needs to be better communication this week because you don’t want to give a struggling offense confidence.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

BYU has a solid kick return unit and has done nothing at punt returning. They do have an excellent kick coverage unit, though, ranking 13th in the country. BYU’s kicker Rhett Almond is just 2-for-4 on the year in field goal attempts with a long of 35. However, he was 17-of-21 last season, so I’ll just chalk this up to a slow start. He is still a very capable kicker. Anthony Lotti has only punted eight times, and while his net average is not great, he still has put a pair inside the 20. Much like Almond, Rafael Gaglianone is off to a bit of a slow start, making 2-of-3, but missing his only attempt more than 30 yards. He will need to prove he is fully healthy after missing the final 11 games a season ago.

Edge: BYU

Overall

This is a game Wisconsin should win convincingly, but you never know with road openers, especially with the Badgers having so many young players on the team. I think this game will be close for awhile, but Bucky will come up with a big play late in the game to seal it up. I just think Wisconsin will be too much defensively. It will be a defensive struggle, but in the end, the Badgers will be too much.

Prediction: Wisconsin 16, BYU 3

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Florida Atlantic/Wisconsin review


It was not the prettiest of games, but the Badgers came away with the win. Despite being favored by nearly five touchdowns, Wisconsin won 31-14 over Lane Kiffin’s bunch. The Badgers dominated in total yards (Wisconsin outgained FAU 564-248) and time of possession (38:34-21:26), but Wisconsin made mistake after mistake which helped Florida Atlantic stay in the game until late in the third quarter. In place of injured Bradrick Shaw, freshman Jonathan Taylor had a tremendous game, rushing for 226 yards and scoring three touchdowns. The Badgers were able to jump out to the fast start I talked about in the preview article, but were only able to score 10 points in the game’s final 39 minutes. Like always, Wisconsin did some things well, but there were many things from this game the team will need to clean up because a trip to Provo, Utah, for the first road game against Brigham Young looms.

Like always, I will start with the positives. The list will obviously start with the freshman tailback. I mentioned his numbers above, but it goes beyond that. His balance and strength to break tackles is incredible. He has it all and we are lucky to have him for at least the next three seasons. Taylor is the first true freshman to start a game for the Badgers since Dwayne Smith in 2002. His best run of the game was his second touchdown run. He was stacked up behind the line of scrimmage, but broke free and was able to break no fewer than four tackles before running down the left sideline for the score. There is not much more to say about him other than “wow.” When Shaw comes back, Taylor will become that much more lethal.

Chris James had a nice bounce back game, rushing 16 times for 101 yards. Obviously, it is a much better performance than week one where he had five carries for 15 yards and a fumble. James still has not shown much ability in the passing game, despite having a lot of hype in that area in camp.

Lastly, the defense in the second half was very impressive. After giving up a few big plays in the first half, the defense put the clamps on Florida Atlantic’s offense in the second half. On 21 plays in half No. 2, the Owls just gained 50 yards and had just two first downs. The Badgers defense has still not allowed any points in the second half this year and has outscored their opponents 56-0 overall in the final halves. There is still plenty of work to do on that side of the ball, but this is something to build on.

Now, onto the negatives, and unfortunately, there were plenty. First of all, as good as sophomore quarterback Alex Hornibrook was last week, he was that poor yesterday. His numbers were okay yesterday afternoon, going 16-of-28 for 201 yards and one touchdown and one interception. However, when he missed, he missed bad. And even some of his completions were behind receivers. His interception in the second half was as horrible of a throw I’ve seen him make. And sometimes when he did throw a good pass, it was dropped. On two occasions, the normally sure-handed Troy Fumagalli dropped passes on third down that would have been first downs. He still had a nice game, catching a career-high eight passes for 92 yards and a touchdown, but it could have been even better.

There is no excuse for Wisconsin to not be able to make one yard in three plays down at the goal line. The Badgers need to punch that in. This has been a theme the last five or six years. They normally have a tremendous offensive line, so they should be able to score every single time when given three chances at the opponent’s one. Wisconsin also made too many mistakes. I mentioned being stopped three times from the Owls 1 and the awful Hornibrook interception, but after a big run, Taylor fumbled. Wisconsin won’t win too many games losing the turnover battle 2-0.

And finally, Wisconsin’s pass rush accepted my challenge and were able to sack Florida Atlantic’s Daniel Parr five times. However, mostly in the first half, the Badgers could not get any pass rush. Two of the sacks came in the first half, but the Owls only lost four total yards on those. The three sacks in the second half totaled 18 yards, so that was much better. It needs to be much more consistent, though. That would help limit big plays. Florida Atlantic hit a few big plays in week one and hit another yesterday.

The Badgers will hit the road for the first time next Saturday as they take on the BYU Cougars in Provo, Utah. BYU is 1-2 and has lost its last two after losing to in-state rival Utah at home last night.

Friday, September 8, 2017

Florida Atlantic/Wisconsin preview


Wisconsin will try to improve to 2-0 on the season as it welcomes the Florida Atlantic Owls, led by new coach Lane Kiffin, previously the offensive coordinator at Alabama. The Badgers shook off an early slow start against Utah State to rout the Aggies 59-10, while the Owls were thumped at home by Navy 42-19. On a serious note, it is nice that this game will be played and the Owls will be in Madison as Hurricane Irma is going to hit Florida sometime this weekend. In a nice gesture, if Florida Atlantic cannot return afterward, the UW will pay for the extra night(s), meals and let them use their facilities.

When Wisconsin runs...

The running game, like the Badgers as a whole, started slow last week against Utah State. In the second half, they turned it on. For the game, Wisconsin rushed for 234 yards, which is 44th in the country after the first week. Florida Atlantic, on the other hand, allowed 416 yards rushing to Navy. That is good enough for 121st. Granted, that does not matter much since it is just after one week. However, I do not see it improving much for the Owls. Navy is a difficult offense to face, and many teams need more than a week to recover after playing them. That is not a good recipe for coming in facing the Badgers. Wisconsin has a big offensive line, and it will wear down teams as the game goes along. Freshman Jonathan Taylor has earned more playing time after gaining 87 yards on nine carries in the opener. Sophomore Bradrick Shaw was steady, gaining 84 yards and averaging nearly five yards per carry. However, he may not play tomorrow. Chris James needs a better game, and I think he will get it. In the opener, James gained just 15 yards on five carries and a fumble. The underrated tough part for Florida Atlantic is playing the Badgers right after playing Navy. Granted, they would not be able to stop Wisconsin anyway, but this makes it virtually unstoppable. Bucky has an enormous edge this week, and they could rush for nearly 400 yards this week.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes...

Sophomore quarterback Alex Hornibrook showed tremendous progress over last year. He already threw for three touchdowns, and he did not have one game last year where he threw more than one. He had more zip on his passes, and his accuracy on deep balls has improved, but his receivers need to catch the football. I expect Hornibrook to spread the ball around to his young receivers this week once again. Wisconsin knows what it has in both Troy Fumagalli and Jazz Peavy. The Badgers need one more pass catcher to emerge in order to have a chance to win the Big Ten and possibly earn a berth in the College Football Playoff. Navy only attempted 10 passes, completing three of them for 110 yards. Since the Midshipmen only attempted 10 passes, it is hard to tell how good the pass defense is for the Owls.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Florida Atlantic runs...

The Owls had just 40 yards rushing on 24 attempts. However, if you take out the quarterback runs and losses attributed to “team" rush yards lost, FAU actually rushed for 101 yards on 17 carries. I don’t expect them to be able to do much better against the strong defensive front of the Badgers, though. Even though Wisconsin will be without Chikwe Obasih, the defensive line is still strong. Alec James will slide in at starter and redshirt freshman Isaiahh Loudermilk will play plenty. In week one, Utah State rushed for just 85 yards on 27 carries. I see Wisconsin shutting down the Florida Atlantic ground attack.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Florida Atlantic passes the ball...

Kiffin has not announced who will start at quarterback this week. Against Navy, it was sophomore Daniel Parr (no relation to John) who started. His stats were not terrible, as he completed 19-of-30 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. His two touchdown passes were of the long distance variety, a 95-yarder to Willie Wright and a 62-yard pass to DeAndre McNeal, a transfer from Texas. After being booted from Florida State for punching a woman, De’Andre Johnson transferred to Florida Atlantic and he is in the mix as well. He played a little bit against Navy and went 2-of-3 for five yards and rushed for 31 yards as well. Jason Driskel is also in the mix. Perhaps we see two of the three quarterbacks tomorrow. Still, regardless of who the quarterback is, Wisconsin will have the edge here. The Badgers have arguably one of the top secondaries in the country. After a bit of a slow start, the pass defense settled down. Kent Myers went 25-of-41 for 219 yards and threw three interceptions. That is just a 5.3 yards per attempt avergage. Dink and dunk passes won’t get it done against Wisconsin. I am challenging the pass rush, though. After registering only one sack against Utah State, I challenged the pass rush to sack the Florida Atlantic quarterback(s) at least four times.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

There is no clear cut favorite here. Both teams had similar showings in week one. I would like to see the Badgers score a touchdown on every drive, but I would not be disappointed if Rafael Gaglianone gets a few chances for long field goals. It would be nice to see if he is fully back from the back injury that forced him to miss the last 11 games of last season. He made his one attempt last Friday, but that was a short one. Anthony Lotti is getting better and better every week. I would like to see the kick returns be a little bit better, though, for Wisconsin.

Edge: Push

Overview

This one should be over quickly, unless Wisconsin sleepwalks like it did against Georgia State last season. Bucky has a much better offense and defense. Regardless if Shaw plays or not, the Badgers have the horses to be able to run for a ton of yardage. More of Jonathan Taylor is never a bad thing. I would obviously like to see the Badgers start faster. I think they will and coast to an easy victory.

Prediction: Wisconsin 51, Florida Atlantic 13

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Utah State/Wisconsin review


It took awhile, but finally the Badgers put away Utah State in the second half. After Wisconsin played an atrocious first 28 minutes and was down 10-0 to the heavy underdogs, Bucky dominated the final 32 minutes and ran away with the game, winning 59-10. It was the coming out party for true freshman running back Jonathan Taylor, who ran for a team-high 87 yards on just nine carries and a touchdown. Despite being dominated in the first 28 minutes, the Badgers still managed to outgain Utah State 478-304, and the Aggies gained 137 yards on their final two drive to make that difference closer than it actually was. Overall, the team has plenty to fix, but a good start nonetheless. The second half showed how good of a team they can be, even though it was against a team that just had three wins last season.

Since this is a happy article, I will start with the positives. First off, the second half in its entirety was as good of a half I have seen the Badgers play in awhile. Yes, I know it was Utah State, but that was a great half put together by Paul Chryst’s bunch. I should not be surprised since the team has so many veterans on it, but the way the team did not panic after falling behind early by 10 was impressive. They stuck to what Wisconsin does, and ran the football down the throats of Utah State to the tune of 234 yards on the ground.

In addition to the veterans the team has, the young players played really well. I will get to sophomore quarterback Alex Hornibrook next, as he had a very nice performance. In addition to the starting quarterback and Taylor (who I mentioned in the first paragraph), young wide receivers Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis had nice games as well. Cephus only had three catches, as Hornibrook spread the ball around, but he and the quarterback connected on a gorgeous back shoulder throw for a touchdown in the third quarter. Playing in his first career game, Davis played well even though he did not record a catch. First, he blocked multiple Utah State players on the left sideline on Zander Neuville’s 28-yard touchdown catch and he also drew a pair of defensive penalties that gave the Badgers a fresh set of downs. Also, freshman Isaiahh Loudermilk recorded Bucky’s only sack of the game.

Lastly, as I mentioned above, Hornibrook had a tremendous first game. Last season, the Wisconsin quarterback did not throw more than one touchdown in any game. Against Utah State, the sophomore had three, including the beautiful back shoulder throw to Cephus I mentioned above. For the game, he went 15-of-23 for 244 yards and the three scores. His receivers had several drops in the game last Friday or he would have had an even bigger day. If he keeps this up, he could have a very, very nice year. When in doubt, go to the ol’ reliable Troy Fumagalli, who had five catches for 105 yards and a score.

With every game, even in a game like this, there are plenty of things to work on. As I mentioned in the last paragraph, the receivers need to catch the ball. With many of the receivers being in their first or second year with the program, maybe some of it was first game jitters. You don’t want it to happen ever, but I wouldn’t panic unless it starts happening consistently. It was a nice game to throw to those receivers since Jazz Peavy will still be a very solid target, but only had one catch in the game.

Since it was only the first game, I would not worry about this like some fans are on social media, but that was a terrible start to the game. Being down 10 in the first quarter is not ideal, but they fought back to blow out Utah State. If it happens again against Florida Atlantic on Saturday, I will more worried, but I will chalk that up to it being the first game. It was the first time that they actually were on the field against an opponent, and Utah State was basically the first preseason game for the Badgers.

And finally, Utah State was breaking in an entirely new offensive line and Wisconsin only managed one sack. There were a few pressures, but not as much as I had hoped against that caliber of an offensive line. The linebackers played really well, tackling ball carriers for short yardage, but when the game is on the line and they need to put pressure on the opposing quarterback, they will need to be able to do so. I challenge the Badgers to have at least four sacks against Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

Next, Wisconsin will take on Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic Owls on Saturday, which come in at 0-1 after losing to Navy 42-19. The game will be on the Big Ten Network at 11 CST.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Utah State/Wisconsin preview


The week has finally arrived. For the first time in eight months, it is Wisconsin Badgers game week! Unlike the last three years when the Badgers took on LSU twice and Alabama in their season opener, Wisconsin will not be in a big-time game on opening weekend. This year, Bucky welcomes the Utah State Aggies to Camp Randall Stadium on Friday night. Utah State went 3-9 last year under Matt Wells, but are poised for a much better season in 2017 with a veteran group returning. The last time the two schools met was 2012 when the Badgers overcame a 14-3 halftime deficit to defeat the Aggies 16-14 after Josh Thompson missed a potential game-winning 36-yard field goal with 14 seconds left. Wisconsin is coming in off an 11-3 season and a win in the Cotton Bowl, and will also bring back a very experienced nucleus.

When Wisconsin runs the ball...

It is difficult to do these sorts of articles prior to week one due to all the uncertainty about how much players will improve. However, Wisconsin is Wisconsin. First and foremost, this will be a running team. Despite the fact they lost two NFL running backs, Corey Clement and Dare Ogunbowale, the Badgers will still have a solid running game. The Badgers return sophomore Bradrick Shaw, who gained 457 yards and more than five yards per carry as a freshman. Bucky also gains junior transfer from Pittsburgh, Chris James. In his two seasons with the Panthers, James gained nearly 700 yards on the ground and rushed for 4.8 yards per carry. Coaches have raved about James ever since he transferred. In addition to his rushing skills, he also has been a tremendous receiving back in practice, something will be needed to offset the loss of Ogunbowale. The offensive line returns four starters and will look to finally be a ‘Wisconsin’ offensive line again. Last season, Utah State finished 89th in the country, allowing 203.3 rushing yards per game, as well as 19 touchdowns. Five of the front seven are gone, so the Aggies will need to do some rebuilding up front. With its experience and talent along the offensive line, Wisconsin should dominate the trenches. I expect Shaw and James to have big nights, and if he doesn’t redshirt, we should see plenty of talented freshman Jonathan Taylor.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Wisconsin passes the football...

I am interested to see how this has improved since last season. Last year in 12 games, Alex Hornibrook threw for just 1,262 yards and nine touchdowns. In order for the Badgers to take the next step, he will need to improve. As a sophomore in 2004, John Stocco had similar numbers to Hornibrook’s freshman campaign. Stocco took a big step his next two years and became a very solid quarterback for the Badgers. Wisconsin will need the same sort of progression from Hornibrook. He will have plenty of weapons at his disposal this season. Troy Fumagalli is one of the nation’s top tight ends, and the Badgers will look to him early and often. Wisconsin also returns No. 1 wide receiver Jazz Peavy, who had 635 yards and five touchdowns last season. Gone is No. 2 wideout Rob Wheelwright, but the Badgers have a few options to try to help take the pressure off Peavy and Fumagalli. Sophomore Quintez Cephus looked great at camp and freshman Danny Davis has made several eye-opening plays in camp. If one of those two emerges and Hornibrook improves a bit, the Badgers could have a very good passing attack to go along with a dynamic ground game. In passing yardage allowed last season, Utah State actually ranked 10th. However, that dropped to 67th in opponents QB rating, which means teams generally didn’t try (or need to) run against the Aggies in 2016. Utah State does have experience in the secondary, though. Safety Dallin Leavitt is the leading tackler returning (57), and led the team in interceptions a year ago (3). Cornerback Jalen Davis has also started all 35 games he has played in. This is a talented and experienced group, but the defensive line will need to pressure Hornibrook in order for them to be able to stop the Badgers through the air.

Edge: Push

When Utah State runs the ball...

Utah State finished the season at 81st in the country with 170.5 rush yards per game. However, its five yards per carry finished 42nd. As a matter of fact, Utah State actually had a better yards per carry than Wisconsin did in 2016. However, that will take a hit due to the Aggies losing four starters on the offensive line. Running back Tonny Lindsey is back, and he gained 763 yards and more than five yards per carry in place of the injured Devante Mays, who now is with the Green Bay Packers. Quarterback Kent Myers also rushed for 449 yards. On defense, Wisconsin returns its entire defensive line and the linebacker depth is incredible, especially at inside linebacker. Last season, the Badgers were second in the country in rush defense, allowing just 96.9 yards per game on the ground. With so much of the front seven returning for the Badgers and almost an entirely new offensive line for the Aggies, I imagine it will be tough sledding on the ground for the team from the Mountain West.

Edge: Wisconsin

When Utah State passes the ball...

Utah State returns its starting quarterback, as I mentioned above. Myers is more of a threat on the ground than through the air, as he just completed 58 percent of his passes and threw 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His yards per attempt was also at a career-worst 6.62. However, he did really well in his first two years, throwing for 21 touchdowns and throwing just six picks. As a sophomore, he had a 16-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his yards per attempt were a shade over eight. Myers does return his top two receivers from last year, which is good news for the Aggies. Junior Ron’quavion Tarver had 46 catches for 602 yards and three touchdowns last season and sophomore Rayshad Lewis had 40 catches for 476 yards and two scores. Unfortunately for them, they will be going up against one of the best cornerback duos in the country. The Badgers lost Sojourn Shelton to graduation, but will replace him with Hawaii transfer Nick Nelson, who many think will have a breakout season and might be the best cornerback on the roster. Pair Nelson with senior Derrick Tindal and you have a deadly duo. The Badgers will also have to replace Leo Musso with Natrell Jamerson. The latter will have to learn a new position, but he has become comfortable with the switch and he has a solid guy to learn from in new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. Wisconsin was 11th in opposing quarterback rating, and I don’t see it falling off much, if at all. The real question coming into the season is who will put pressure on the quarterback, as both T.J. Watt and Vince Biegel are off to the NFL. That is one question the Badgers will need answered by the start of conference play.

Edge: Wisconsin

Special Teams

The Badgers will get back kicker Rafael Gaglianone, who missed the final 11 games of the season with a back injury. He was off to a fantastic start to his 2016 season, making seven of his first eight attempts, including a clutch 47-yard field goal against LSU in the season opener that proved to be the game-winner. After a slow start to his freshman season, punter Anthony Lotti was very solid down the stretch. For the season, his punting average wasn’t great at 37.7 yards per punt, but he put 25 inside the 20, which was third in the conference. Neither of the return teams was very strong last season. Utah State’s kicker will be sophomore Dominik Eberle, who made 3-of-5 field goals last year, but has only made one longer than 22 yards. Aaron Dalton is the Utah State punter, and the Aggies were 125th in the country in net punting. Neither of the return units were any good for Utah State in 2016. Because of Rafael Gaglianone, even though he is coming back from injury, I give the Badgers the advantage here.

Edge: Wisconsin

Overview

After three straight season openers against top competition, this feels like a bit of a letdown. Utah State should be a bit better this year, but still, Wisconsin should take it to its foes from the Mountain West. With the experience returning up front and the lack of playing experience up front for Utah State, the Badgers should win going away. Of course, I have seen Wisconsin lose to UNLV by 18 in my lifetime, so they can’t take any team lightly, but the Badgers should run at will against the Aggies and it should be over by halftime.

Prediction: Wisconsin 48, Utah State 10

1. Wisconsin 42, Michigan State 39 (2011)

We are now down to the final game on the countdown, and what better way to end it than flashing back to the inaugural Big Ten Championship game? There were so many storylines to this game. First of all, this was the second meeting of the season, and the first one was fairly memorable. I think we all remember Michigan State’s Keith Nichol catching a Hail Mary to beat Wisconsin earlier in the year. Revenge was on the mind of Wisconsin, and so was the Rose Bowl. If the Badgers were to beat the Spartans, Wisconsin would make its second consecutive appearance in Pasadena. There were a number of similarities between the two games, as well as things I would consider poetic justice. First of all, going into the first meeting, the Spartans were one of the most penalized teams in the country and were called for zero penalties in East Lansing. None. That is nearly impossible to do. In the Big Ten Championship game, Michigan State would lose on a penalty at the end of the game. Secondly, the Badgers lost on a Hail Mary in East Lansing in the first meeting. In this matchup, Wisconsin returned the favor with a Hail Mary of sorts with Jeff Duckworth catching a fourth down pass to help Bucky score the eventual game-winning touchdown. Montee Ball was also trying for the all-time single-season touchdown record. He was five behind Barry Sanders, and would score four in this game to trail Sanders by one heading into the bowl game. This game would end up being one of the most memorable games in Wisconsin history and the Badgers would come out on top to win the inaugural Big Ten Championship game.

I mentioned that there were a number of similarities between the two games. Well, the game started very similar to the matchup in East Lansing. In the first meeting, Wisconsin would score the first 14 points of the game. They scored on the first possession, and recovered a fumble and turned that to six points as well. In this meeting, the Badgers would take a bit longer to open up the two score game. Just like normal, Wisconsin would start out handing the ball off to Ball early and often. The star running back would start by running the ball the first five plays of the game, running for 53 yards. That was followed by Russell Wilson’s first pass of the game, a 22-yard strike to Nick Toon down to the Spartans 6. Three plays later, Wilson would hit Duckworth in the end zone for a 3-yard score and the Badgers took the 7-0 lead.

Michigan State would come right back, though. Nick Hill had a nice kick return up to the Spartans 41, where Sparty would take over. Five of the six plays on the drive were runs. On the first play, Le’Veon Bell rushed for 26 yards to move into Wisconsin territory. A pass to Keshawn Martin moved the ball to the 20 and Michigan State would score on an 8-yard touchdown run from Edwin Baker and the Spartans would tie the game.

Bucky would receive great field position after the kickoff went out-of-bounds. Ball would pick up one first down before facing a 3rd-and-2 from the Michigan State 41. If you remember earlier in the season in a 59-7 win against Indiana, Ball received a pitch from Wilson and he then threw to the quarterback who ran snuck around the opposite side. Ball threw it to Wilson, who was wide open. Wilson caught the ball and walked in for the score. In this game, the Badgers ran the same play. It was much more impressive against the great defense of Michigan State. On the play, Ball would receive the pitch and throw it back side to Wilson. The Wisconsin quarterback would catch the ball and run down to the 9. Two plays later, Ball would score from six yards out and the Badgers took the lead right back, 14-7.

I told you that the Badgers would take a 14-point lead. It would happen late in the first quarter. After having a great kickoff return on his first attempt, Hill would turn it over on his second attempt. Hill would return it to the 25, but Conor O’Neill forced a fumble on the return and it was recovered by Jacob Pedersen for the Badgers. Two plays later, Ball would crash in from six yards out once again and the Badgers took a 21-7 lead late in the first quarter. That was the good news. The bad news is that these would be the last points of the half for the Badgers.

Much like the last meeting, Michigan State dominated the second quarter. In the game in East Lansing, the Badgers were outscored 23-0 in the second. In this meeting, the Badgers were outscored 22-0. Michigan State was driving as the quarter ended, but on the first play of the second quarter, Sparty was facing a 4th-and-1 from the Wisconsin 30. Kirk Cousins would go back to throw and find B.J. Cunningham wide open and he would run all the way to the end zone for the 30-yard score and the Spartans would cut it to seven.

Michigan State would put the clamps on the Wisconsin offense in the second quarter. The Badgers would have four possessions in the quarter and every single one of them ended in a three-and-out. The Spartans offense, however, would continue to roll. Cousins would pass for 42 yards on this drive, moving Michigan State to the Wisconsin 10. Then, Cousins found Nichol to the 7, but Nichol would pitch it to Cunningham, who ran it the rest of the way for the touchdown. Brad Sonntag ran in on a two-point conversion and the Spartans had the lead for the first time in the game.

KeShawn Martin had a great drive to help put the Spartans ahead by eight to end the half. Martin caught two passes for 41 yards, while also running for eight on the 84-yard drive. Bell would cap off the drive with a 6-yard touchdown. Cousins had 58 yards passing on the drive. After another three-and-out by the suddenly cold Wisconsin offense, Michigan State's Dan Conroy would miss a 51-yard field goal as time expired and the score was 29-21 at the half.

Bret Bielema couldn't have been more excited to see the second quarter end. After being ahead by 14 at the end of the first quarter, Michigan State owned the second once again. Wisconsin's defense had to set the tone early in the second half and did just that. Facing a 3rd-and-1 on the opening drive, Cousins handed it off to Bell and he was stuffed. He tried to find room, but could not find any and would lose seven yards on the play and Michigan State had to punt.

With the defense forcing a big three-and-out on Michigan State's first offensive possession of the third quarter, the Badgers offense finally woke up. After going three-and-out on all four drives in the second quarter, Wisconsin would need a big drive. The Badgers were facing a 3rd-and-3 on their own 45 and on the verge of having a fifth consecutive three-and-out, but Wilson found Toon for six yards to move into Spartans territory. Wisconsin would move to the 35, but would go backward the next few plays. The Badgers would face a 3rd-and-17 on the 42. Many expected the Badgers to play it safe, but Wilson would drop back to pass. Spartans defensive back Johnny Adams came free on a blitz, but would miss and grab Wilson's face mask instead. After Wilson was able to escape Adams, he launched a pass to an open Abbrederis in the end zone for the touchdown. Abbrederis' touchdown cut it to 29-28 and let people know that Bucky's offense was back.

Michigan State received great field position at the Badgers 48 after a punt from Wisconsin deep in its own territory. The first two plays went for a combined nine yards, but a penalty on the Spartans forced a 3rd-and-6. Five more yards was no problem for Sparty. On the third down play, the Badgers brought the blitz, but could not get home and Cousins found a wide open Cunningham running from left to right. He would outrun Wisconsin defenders to the end zone untouched for the 44-yard touchdown. The Badgers would limit the big plays in the second half, but Michigan State would be able to get this one. This gave the Spartans a 36-28 lead with less than two minutes to go in the third quarter.

But the Badgers would not go away, as Abbrederis would return the ensuing kickoff 44 yards to his own 48. Wisconsin would gain one yard in two plays to set up a 3rd-and-9. Wilson threw it to 'ol reliable Duckworth for 14 yards to the Spartans 37 for a first down. That would be the first of three consecutive double-digit yardage completions. Adams was whistled for a pass interference to set the ball at the 2. Ball was tackled for a loss of three on first down, but he would make up for it with a touchdown reception on the next play. On the 2nd-and-Goal from the 5, the Badgers would run a shovel pass. Wilson would take the snap out of the shotgun and pitch a forward pass to Ball, who would run it in for the score. The two-point attempt was no good, so Sparty maintained the 36-34 lead early in the fourth quarter.

Wisconsin's defense could not afford to give up a touchdown on this Spartans drive. Michigan State would drive down the field after having great starting field position at the Spartans 40. Bell would rush for 13 yards on the 52-yard drive. Cunningham, who continued his great night, also rushed for 24 yards to move Sparty into the red zone. Wisconsin would hold Bell to five yards in two carries to force a 3rd-and-5 at the Wisconsin 8. The Badgers defense needed to hold the Spartans to a field goal. Cousins would throw a pass over the middle to Martin, who was well-covered on the play. Wisconsin linebacker Chris Borland would dive and knock the ball away to force the field goal attempt. Conroy kicked a short field goal to give the Spartans a 39-34 lead with eight and a half minutes to go in the game.

Now the fun really began. Wisconsin had the ball with 8:20 to play down five. You got the feeling that the Badgers needed a touchdown on the drive in order to win. Wisconsin would face a huge third down on the Badgers 42. Wilson calmly found a wide open Abbrederis on the left side for 11 yards into Spartans territory. Four plays later, Wisconsin faced a fourth down on the Michigan State 43. If people were to remember one play from the game, it would be this one. If you were to mention the name Jeff Duckworth to any Badgers fan, he/she would smile and this play would immediately come to mind. A Rose Bowl berth was on the line for the Badgers. Wisconsin had a 4th-and-6 with 4:20 to play. The Badgers went for it, fearing that they might not get the ball back if they were to punt. Wilson received the snap and had a little pressure and rolled off to his left. For a second, he thought he maybe could run, but the Spartans linebackers were spying and started to rush him. So Wilson launched it across the field. In the last meeting, it was an unlikely hero in Nichol who made the game-winning play on a Hail Mary. This time it was Duckworth who caught what was basically a Hail Mary. Wilson launched a pass to Duckworth inside the 10. The Badgers wide receiver went up and grabbed it in between two Spartans defensive backs. Isaiah Lewis misjudged the ball and the other was a bit late in getting over to help out and Wisconsin had the ball at the 7 with four minutes to play. On the very next play, Ball would blast his way in for the score standing and the Badgers had their first lead since very early in the second quarter. Pedersen caught the two-point conversion and Wisconsin had a 42-39 lead with 3:45 left in the game.

Michigan State only needed a field goal to tie the game up and good starting field position near the Spartans 40. The first two plays gained two yards and Michigan State was forced with a 3rd-and-8 from their own 39. Cousins would be flushed to the left and fire a pass to Martin along the sideline. It was a ruled a spectacular grab with Martin getting one foot in. But the play would go to review and it was ruled that it was incomplete, so the Spartans would have to punt and rely on their stingy defense to get their offense the ball back. The punt would be caught by Abbrederis at the 19.

The Spartans had two timeouts and they used them after two consecutive runs by Ball, which gained five yards. So the Badgers had a 3rd-and-5. One first down would seal the game. The question would be what the Badgers would do, pass it and risk an incompletion or run it and run more clock? It turns out it would be a Ball run for two yards and it would bring up a 4th-and-3. Those two yards would be critical because Nortman would come onto punt. The Spartans came after the punt and Nortman kicked a line drive that was fielded by Martin at the 33, and the Michigan State returner found daylight along the left sideline untouched until he was pushed out of bounds by Nortman at the Wisconsin 3. But there was a flag. Running into the kicker on Michigan State. First down Wisconsin. Ball game! On the punt, Nortman left his leg up in the air and Lewis for Michigan State hit his plant leg. Lewis did not hit Nortman’s leg very hard, but the Wisconsin punter fell down and sold the call. With all of the calls that were not called in East Lansing, Sparty deserved this called on them.

Wilson would take a knee three times and the Badgers would make the return trip to Pasadena in an incredibly entertaining conference championship game. I know Michigan State won on a last minute play against Iowa in the 2015 Big Ten Championship game and last year's was a very good game as well, but this one is at the top in terms of Big Ten Championship games. It just had everything you could ask for in a football game. It was a heavyweight fight that went the distance, but in the end, Wisconsin was the team standing at the end.

I hope you enjoyed my countdown of the memorable games for the Wisconsin Badgers in the last 16 years. I hope I could refresh your memory on some of the Badgers biggest games in the history of Wisconsin football. I know some people may not agree with the order, so if you disagree, feel free to leave a comment. I hope everyone has a great time watching Wisconsin open the season against Utah State under the lights tomorrow night at Camp Randall Stadium.